Palm: Could Fiscal Q1 Hold an Upside Surprise?

Could Palm (PALM) post an upside surprise in its fiscal first quarter ended August?

RBC Capital’s Mike Abramsky raises that possibility in a research note this morning. Abramsky notes that in the company’s 10-K filed on Friday, Palm disclosed a Q4 backlog of $238 million, up from $185 million one year earlier, and $121 million two years earlier. He writes that past precedent finds Q1 revenues have been 1.6x-1.9x Q4 backlog. Use the lower number and you would get $413 million, or well above the current Street consensus of $324 million. Abramsky says that would imply a loss for the quarter of four cents a share, versus the Street’s estimate of a loss of 18 cents.

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