Amazon: Estimates Still Too High?

October 17, 2008 at 9:48 am PT

Are estimates still too high for Amazon.com (AMZN)?

Barclays Capital analyst Douglas Anmuth thinks so. This morning, he cut his 2008 estimate to $1.40 from $1.56; for 2009, he drops to $1.57, from $2.06. That puts his numbers way below the Street consensus of $1.51 for this year and $1.96 for next year.

Anmuth, who has an Equal Weight rating on the stock, says the company is “one of the best franchises in the Internet sector.” But he thinks the Street hasn’t fully baked in currency headwinds and the slowing economy into their estimates for Q4 or 2009. While the grim Q4 forecast from eBay has “lowered the bar for the e-commerce sector some,” he says, Amazon’s record of outperforming its peers “could mean that hopes remain too high for this stock in the near term despite the recent selloff.”

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Tagged with: Amazon.com, Barcalays Capital, Douglas Anmuth, eBay, Eric Savitz, frontpage

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Sam Harrison

on the other hand, more people are ordering from home, saving gas — which could boost sales volume

his forecast also assumes that amazon is static and won’t react to economic trends by:

1) offering more specials
2) offering mor free shipping
3) acquiring some growth in vertical niches
4) tightening costs
5) buying back stock (increases EPS)

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