Apple: While Shuffling Estimates, Analysts Wax Bullish

There were some conflicting shifts in earnings estimates this morning for Apple (AAPL). The Street is noodling around about the impact on iPod, Mac and iPhone sales of several key issues: the economic downturn, iPod saturation, the explosion of the smartphone market–and the entrance into the market of new competition and impact of netbooks on the PC sector. Here’s a rundown on this morning’s calls; note that in every case the analyst continues to recommend the stock:

Oppenheimer’s Yair Reiner trimmed his iPhone targets, but raised his MacBook forecasts, and increased his gross margin estimate. For iPhones, he now sees 4.8 million units in the December quarter, down from 7.5 million. His FY ’09 unit forecast drops to 21.3 million from 27 million. He also sees lower ASPs than previously, due to the impact of the strong dollar on international sales. On the other hand, he raised his Q1 MacBook estimate to 1.61 million from 1.54 million; for desktops, he trims to 960,000, from 1.02 million. His gross margin estimate for the quarter increases to 31.5 percent from 31 percent, to reflect lower component pricing.

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