John Paczkowski

Recent Posts by John Paczkowski

Econalypto

Good thing the National Bureau of Economic Research wasn’t established with the goal of providing timely economic analysis; otherwise its announcement Monday that the country has been in a recession since December 2007 might seem, you know, ludicrous. But the NBER’s business is quantitative historical analysis, not timely economic intelligence. As Jeffrey Frankel, a Harvard professor and member of the NBER’s business cycle dating committee, notes, “Our job is to be definitive, not fast.” And that makes Monday’s pronouncement even more worrisome. Because, according to the NBER, the current contraction, already the longest since 1982, is entirely likely to grow longer still. Certainly, that’s what all the leading economic indicators suggest. “It is clearly not going to end in a few months,” explains Frankel. “We would be lucky to get done with it in the middle of next year.”

If that proves true–if the economy doesn’t hit bottom until the second quarter of 2009–this recession will have been the longest since the Great Depression. What a horrific thought….


Twitter’s Tanking

December 30, 2013 at 6:49 am PT

2013 Was a Good Year for Chromebooks

December 29, 2013 at 2:12 pm PT

BlackBerry Pulls Latest Twitter for BB10 Update

December 29, 2013 at 5:58 am PT

Apple CEO Tim Cook Made $4.25 Million This Year

December 28, 2013 at 12:05 pm PT

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I think the NSA has a job to do and we need the NSA. But as (physicist) Robert Oppenheimer said, “When you see something that is technically sweet, you go ahead and do it and argue about what to do about it only after you’ve had your technical success. That is the way it was with the atomic bomb.”

— Phil Zimmerman, PGP inventor and Silent Circle co-founder, in an interview with Om Malik