Wireless Carriers: Bernstein Sees Potential Disaster Looming

One odd thing about the current state of the wireless phone market is that while demand for handsets seems to be in free fall–Canaccord Adams’s latest forecast, for instance, has 2009 units down 26 percent–the U.S. wireless carriers all seem fairly upbeat on their growth prospects for 2009.

Indeed, Bernstein Research analyst Craig Moffett today notes in a research piece called “U.S. Wireless ’09: A Recipe For Disaster?” that every U.S. wireless carrier thinks it is so well-positioned that it will take market share in 2009–but of course, that’s not possible.

Moffett adds that the situation is made trickier still by the fact that “the size of the pie is shrinking rapidly.” He says U.S. wireless industry subscriber growth was just 5.9 percent in 2008, and will fall below three percent growth in 2009. Moffett adds that subscriber growth has been falling at an accelerating rate: In Q1 2008, net additions were down 16.1 percent; by Q4, net additions were falling 38.8 percent.

Read the rest of this post


Must-Reads from other Websites

Panos Mourdoukoutas

Why Apple Should Buy China’s Xiaomi

Paul Graham

What I Didn’t Say

Benjamin Bratton

We Need to Talk About TED

Mat Honan

I, Glasshole: My Year With Google Glass

Chris Ware

All Together Now

Corey S. Powell and Laurie Gwen Shapiro

The Sculpture on the Moon

About Voices

Along with original content and posts from across the Dow Jones network, this section of AllThingsD includes Must-Reads From Other Websites — pieces we’ve read, discussions we’ve followed, stuff we like. Six posts from external sites are included here each weekday, but we only run the headlines. We link to the original sites for the rest. These posts are explicitly labeled, so it’s clear that the content comes from other websites, and for clarity’s sake, all outside posts run against a pink background.

We also solicit original full-length posts and accept some unsolicited submissions.

Read more »