John Paczkowski

Recent Posts by John Paczkowski

Econalypse Fin

econalypse“The technology downturn of 2008 and 2009 is unofficially over.”

This, according to research firm Forrester, which claims technology spending will roar back to life in 2010, ending the econalypse once and for all.

“While the Q3 2009 data for the U.S. and the global market showed continued declines in tech purchases (as we expected),” the company said in its report, U.S. and Global IT Market Outlook: Q4 2009, “we predict that the Q4 2009 data will show a small increase in buying activity, or at worst, just a small decline.”

Forrester (FORR) expects U.S. IT spending to grow by 6.6 percent in 2010 after falling 8.2 percent in 2009. Meanwhile, global IT spending, which plummeted 8.9 percent last year, will rise 8.1 percent in 2010 to more than $1.6 trillion.

Driving the recovery: Software, hardware and communications equipment. According to Forrester, worldwide spending on software is set to grow by 9.7 percent in the months ahead, spending on hardware and other computer equipment by 8.2 percent and spending on comm gear by 7.6 percent.

Said Forrester principal analyst Andrew Bartels: “All the pieces are in place for a 2010 tech spending rebound. In the U.S., the tech recovery will be much stronger than the overall economic recovery, with technology spending growing at more than twice the rate of gross domestic product this year.”

But this assumes there will be no further financial disaster in 2010. If this is not the case, then we have something else to look forward to.

“The most likely alternative to our forecast that the U.S. and global IT markets will recover in 2010 is a faltering tech market due to a double-dip recession that returns in 2010 after a brief two- to three-quarter economic recovery,” Forrester explains. “Should this happen, U.S. tech purchases would decline by 3% to 4% in 2010, with a second-half decline offsetting a first-half tech revival.”

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