Peter Kafka

Recent Posts by Peter Kafka

How Much Is Google Really Giving Up in China? Depends Who You Ask.

How much money will Google leave on the table if it makes good on its threat to walk away from China?

Depends who you ask.

Last night JP Morgan (JPM) analyst Imran Khan estimated that Google (GOOG) might give up $600 million in 2010 revenue if it bails. Today, Citigroup’s (C) Mark Mahaney ballparks the number in the $300 million to $350 million range.

Both analysts agree with Google’s description of the revenue loss as “immaterial,” though.

For now, that is. The real worry, of course, is that if Google gives up on China now, it will forgo a huge business opportunity in the future.

So the real question–and one we won’t get an answer to for a bit: Does Google think it is still negotiating with China or has it already written off the world’s biggest population of Internet users?


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