Peter Kafka

Recent Posts by Peter Kafka

Bummed Out by Super Bowl Ads? So Are Advertisers.

Underwhelmed with last night’s Super Bowl ads? So are the people who paid for them.

The majority of TV ad buyers say they think their spots are less useful than they used to be. At least according to a new study from Forrester-ANA, which surveys top advertisers: 62 percent feel TV ads “are not as effective” as they were two years ago.

The Forrester (FORR) study is full of nuggets that will cheer those who want to radically transform the TV ad model. For instance:

  • Ad buyers have reduced the amount they are spending on TV and are now allotting just 41 percent of their budgets to the boob tube, compared with 58 percent in 2008.
  • 66 percent think DVRs “will destroy or reduce the effectiveness” of the 30-second ad.
  • They overwhelmingly hate the existing metrics used to measure TV programming.
  • 63 percent think Google (GOOG) will dominate “tomorrow’s big advertising winners,” ahead of cable operators (53 percent), cable networks (47 percent) and broadcast networks (nine percent).

So when can we declare traditional TV ads DOA? No time soon. Even in decline, TV ads are a $70 billion business, give or take a billion, and it’s going to take a lot effort to move an industry that size–even mighty Google has had no luck to date.

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I think the NSA has a job to do and we need the NSA. But as (physicist) Robert Oppenheimer said, “When you see something that is technically sweet, you go ahead and do it and argue about what to do about it only after you’ve had your technical success. That is the way it was with the atomic bomb.”

— Phil Zimmerman, PGP inventor and Silent Circle co-founder, in an interview with Om Malik