John Paczkowski

Recent Posts by John Paczkowski

Analyst: Apple Will Retain At Least Half the Growing Tablet Market

[On weekends, we will be re-posting some pieces from the previous week that we wanted to call attention to again that some readers might have missed.]

Acer chairman J.T. Wang recently predicted that Apple’s share of the tablet market would decline precipitously as new rivals emerge, falling from nearly 100 percent to 20 to 30 percent.

But J.P. Morgan analyst Mark Moskowitz isn’t so sure. While a number of new tablets will hit the market over the next year, inevitably claiming some market share, it’s unlikely that they’ll whittle the iPad’s down to 20 percent or even 30 percent.

They may get it down to 50 percent, though, says Moskowitz.

“The iPad’s sales momentum out of the gate has been unprecedented for a new product, and there appears to be no boundaries to the use case for the device, meaning the adoption curve could remain steep beyond the near term,” he theorizes. “We think that the iPad’s form factor, technology, and content ecosystem could help the company retain 50 percent of the tablet market next year, and anything above that number could represent a significant source of upside to our estimates.”

Which is good news for Apple (AAPL), which stands to sell a hell of a lot of iPads next year. For fiscal 2011, Moskowitz estimates iPad unit sales could hit 22.2 million, assuming Apple retains 50 percent share of a tablet market of approximately 45 to 50 million units.

One last point worth noting here. As slick as some of these rival tablets might prove to be, they’re still likely to have a hard time stealing market share from the iPad because of Apple’s broad app and content ecosystem. Says Moskowitz, “With tablets, we think that offering a trove of applications, as is industry practice in smartphones, will not be enough. The ability of the user to access content, such as movies and TV shows, is more important for tablet users, and this is where Apple has fought hard to secure access to the content. We think it will take time for other vendors to establish similar access to the content.”

[Image credit: Gizmodo commenter rootyb]

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The problem with the Billionaire Savior phase of the newspaper collapse has always been that billionaires don’t tend to like the kind of authority-questioning journalism that upsets the status quo.

— Ryan Chittum, writing in the Columbia Journalism Review about the promise of Pierre Omidyar’s new media venture with Glenn Greenwald