John Paczkowski

Recent Posts by John Paczkowski

Analyst: Apple Aims to Sell 100 Million iPhones in 2011

If Apple’s 2011 plays out the way Wedge Partners analyst Brian Blair figures, investors are going to need some new superlatives with which to describe its performance. In a rapturous note to clients Tuesday, Blair offered some numbers on Apple sure to drop investors’ jaws and set them to salivating at the same time (so let’s hope they’re not leaning over the keyboard).

According to his supply chain checks, Apple plans to produce 45-48 million iPads in 2011, essentially double the most optimistic forecast to date. But even more stunning is Blair’s assessment of Apple’s iPhone forecast.

“We believe that Apple’s production forecasts for 2011 suggest iPhone units in the 100 million unit range for the full 2011 year,” Blair writes. “While a staggering number any way you look at it, our checks reflect full calendar 2010 builds in the 48-50 million unit range. While this number can change and adjust downward or upward based on demand, we believe it is incredibly bullish that Apple feels it is possible that they could see nearly 100 percent year over year growth for iPhone in 2011 as this would mean that exiting 2011, Apple would have approximately 10 percent share in the global handset market.”

The chart below (click to enlarge) shows what kind of quarterly numbers Apple would have to post to reach those totals.

So, 48 million iPads and 100 million iPhones in 2011. Seems a bit optimistic, though the company did sell 39.9 million iPhones in fiscal 2010, a 93 percent increase year-over-year. Given that, the “nearly 100 percent year-over-year growth” that Blair is talking about doesn’t seem as fantastical as it would otherwise. We’ll see, I guess.

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I think the NSA has a job to do and we need the NSA. But as (physicist) Robert Oppenheimer said, “When you see something that is technically sweet, you go ahead and do it and argue about what to do about it only after you’ve had your technical success. That is the way it was with the atomic bomb.”

— Phil Zimmerman, PGP inventor and Silent Circle co-founder, in an interview with Om Malik