John Paczkowski

Recent Posts by John Paczkowski

Apple Shares Down, but for How Long?

No big surprise here: Apple’s stock is slipping this morning following news that CEO Steve Jobs is taking another medical leave of absence. The company’s shares dropped some 6.5 percent this morning as the market mulled Jobs’s health issues and the potential timing of his return to the company. But how long they stay that way is up for debate. Consensus seems to be they’ll come under short-term pressure and then gradually resume trading on results. Fueling that view, Apple’s history as an innovator and the blowout quarter it’s expected to report this afternoon.

“Apple’s stock could face headwinds for several weeks as the media feeds on a yet-to-be-determined mix of speculation and disclosures about Jobs’ future role at Apple,” Oppenheimer analyst Yair Reiner said in a note to clients today. “At the same time, Apple’s investors will theorize and worry about what Jobs’ status will mean for future innovation at Apple. But this worry stage will likely run out of fuel relatively quickly, because convincing evidence of how Jobs’ presence or absence is impacting Apple’s fundamentals won’t present itself for years. Lacking evidence, investors will shortly go back to trading AAPL’s stock based on measurable fundamental performance.”

J.P. Morgan’s Mark Moskowitz was similarly optimistic. “While not knowing the details behind the current medical leave, we point out that Mr. Jobs has demonstrated a great resolve to improve his health previously, emboldened by the attitude and philosophy that helped him lead Apple’s remarkable rise over the past decade,” he writes. “In our view, Mr. Jobs and his team have made Apple become the primal force in shaping consumers’ technology-driven ‘way of life.’ While the competition is increasing in the areas of smartphones and tablets, we do not expect Apple’s technology and user experience leadership to fade.”

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