John Paczkowski

Recent Posts by John Paczkowski

2011 Forecast Calls for 76 Million iPhones With Chance of 32 Million iPads

With the hard launch of the CDMA iPhone at Verizon now just three days away, analysts are tweaking their sales forecasts to reflect its impact. The latest to issue an upward revision: Susquehanna’s Jeff Fidacaro, who raised his price target on Apple this morning to reflect strong pre-sale demand for the Verizon iPhone and a significant increase in its production.

“Our proprietary checks in Apple’s supply chain suggest slight increases to our production forecasts for CY1Q11,” Fidacaro said in a note to clients today. “Our read on CDMA iPhone production shows a ramp up from prior forecasts and positive revisions for the GSM iPhone as well. Early indications from the Verizon presale of the CDMA iPhone were [also] strong. Thus, we are raising our iPhone shipment estimates substantially.”

Fidacaro had been looking for Apple to ship 17.7 million iPhones in the March quarter and 70.5 million in fiscal 2011. Now he’s forecasting 19.8 million and 76.7 million–a 92 percent increase year-over-year.

That, along with a significant upward revision to his iPad shipment estimates, driven by the presumed debut of iPad 2–32.1 million in fiscal 2011, up from 27.3 million (a 330 percent increase year-over-year)–prompted Fidacaro to raise his price target on Apple to $465 from $445.

Spare change for Apple shares?


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