John Paczkowski

Recent Posts by John Paczkowski

Xoom Sales Estimate: At Best a Dud, at Worst a Bomb

Discouraging news for Motorola Mobility. The company’s Xoom tablet–the first comparable competitor to Apple’s iPad–continues to struggle with weak demand. So much so that the “disappointing” sales that analysts warned of back in March may end up being worse than feared.

Global Equities analyst Trip Chowdry estimates that Motorola Mobility has manufactured between 500,000 and 800,000 Xooms, but has sold only 5 to 15 percent of them.

Best case scenario then, according to Chowdry, is that Motorola has sold 120,000 Xooms; worse case scenario, it’s sold just 25,000. Now, admittedly, that’s a very large range, and one could argue that it makes Chowdry’s estimate largely meaningless. But remember that original forecasts suggested Motorola would sell between 3 and 5 million Xooms this year and earlier this month some analysts were calling for first quarter sales of 300,000.

In other words, even Chowdry’s best case scenario is a worst case scenario. It’s just a bit less ugly.

Whatever the actual figure, it apparently wasn’t enough to make an impression in the latest tallies of the Android army. Asked to break out Android tablet sales during Google’s recent earnings call, Jeffrey Huber, the company’s Senior Vice President of Engineering, proffered this non-answer:

Yes. So on Android, as mentioned, over 350,000 devices a day are being activated, which is just tremendous growth. In terms of breaking out share by device or by market, we don’t break out share by device. If you just look though at where the distribution relationships and partnerships are, obviously, we’ve got a great presence in the U.S., strong partners in Europe, Japan, Korea. So international is really growing as a component of the overall pie. In terms of phones versus tablets, Android is relatively early on with tablets. So we have the Honeycomb operating system now, which is developed specifically for the devices. We’ve got some great initial devices like the Motorola XOOM. But as I mentioned earlier in one of the questions, we’re seeing just a tremendous amount of innovation in the markets, but I think you’re going to see a lot more great Android tablet devices soon.

Sounds like a euphemism for “it’s almost all phones,” doesn’t it?

Motorola Mobility reports earnings on Thursday.


comments so far. Add yours.

  • Anonymous

    With half-a-dozen competitive Android tablets with matching or superior specs coming to market in the next few weeks, all at substantially lower prices, Xoom didn’t have enough leadtime to build momentum.

    Asus and Acer will be the first Android tablets to generate substantial sales volume (both shipping this week).

  • Anonymous

    Right … let’s see how that goes, shall we?

  • Anonymous

    I don’t trust this chouwdary analyst..he is one guys who gives unrealistic predictions ….

  • Anonymous

    I don’t trust this Chowdary analyst..he gives unrealistic predictions and totally a pro-apple person

  • http://profiles.google.com/mrico222 Martin Rico

    Android was able to break into the phone market at a time when the iPhone was only available on ATT and everyone was locked into a cell phone contract. This is not true at all when it comes to tablets so they’ll have a lot harder time. They were given a wide open space in phones, but they just don’t have that with tablets.

  • Majipoor

    I remember the first iPad true competitor: the JooJoo. Then the Notion Ink Adam. Then the Galaxy Tab. Then the XooM. Then the Playbook. And I guess I’m missing one or two.

    And apparently now the Asus and Acer tablets?

    It’s a déjà vu, all over again.

    BTW: Wrongly liked the comment :)

  • Anonymous

    Boy, I’ll bet Apple is Cringing.

    Cringing with embarassment, that the best the competition could do was Playbook with its incomplete OS & virtually no apps, Xoom with very few apps but a more expensive price, Streak which sunk w/o a trace, & Galaxy which shipped 2,000,000 units but they apparently disappeared into a black hole.

    Maybe Apple will do like they do in golf & handicap themselves to make the field more level.

    Naw, they couldn’t come up with a BIG enough handicap to make ANY difference.

    Ayuh

  • Anonymous

    “Asus and Acer will be the first Android tablets to generate substantial sales volume (both shipping this week).”

    Only if they ship with something better than Honeycomb!

  • http://nigeltufnel.myopenid.com/ Nigel Tufnel

    It has less to do with “lead time” than it has to do with producing a sub-par device that can’t compete with iPad across the board on hardware, software, app quantity and quality, battery life and performance, price, build quality, integration, customer experience, and marketing. All the tablets out so far might approach Apple on one or two of these, but no one can seem to bring it all together, not even close. So why would anyone expect Asus and Acer, two more companies steeped in a long history of producing cheap PCs and netbooks, to accomplish that? Magic 8-Ball says outlook not so good. To me, HP seems like the only one that might have a chance of competing, but even they have a ton of work to do to catch up to iPad, and they have to execute perfectly.

  • http://nigeltufnel.myopenid.com/ Nigel Tufnel

    The good news for Motorola here? Fewer Xooms sold means fewer customers burned by a lousy, rushed, poorly thought-out product who will automatically not consider getting duped again.

  • Anonymous

    HA HA HA HA HA I LOVE THE SMELL OF FAIL..iPad 2 for the win!!

  • NovaeMeme

    Starting with the top end model was problematic. I wonder how well the iPad would have sold if the only model initially available was the 32GB 3G version and no other plans for additionally models had been announced.

    However, since the release of the Wifi Xoom, it’s been #1 on Amazon’s tablet section for the last month. Unfortunately, that won’t count for the Q1 sales for Moto as it was released after March.

  • Anonymous

    You forget about the Archos! Y U No love Archos!

  • Archimago

    Well, I have the iPad 1 and last week bought the Xoom.

    Whether it sells well or not is irrelevant IMO to me as a user, this has become my day-to-day machine of choice already. In a way it’s like when I moved over from the iPhone to the Nexus One last year and felt liberated by the OS; never looking back (my wife still has her iPhone so use it once awhile). Got the same experience this time around also.

  • Anonymous

    Why would you get Xoom? Strange choice. There no tablet applications available, the product is half backed, non existent customer support, no maintenance service. Also, how would you possiblly feel liberated by the OS. The OS is effectively a vessel for advertisement. You are not Google’s customer. It’s the advertisers who are the customers. You are just a merchandise to Google. I don’t know about you but I don’t like Google controlling all information flows in my life. I would take Apple, Palm, Microsoft or Blackberry products any day over Google. Microsoft maybe a monopoly but at least it is a product monopoly, unlike Google monopoly of information.

  • Anonymous

    Good to hear some confirmation on what I suspected & that was that the Xoom is basically like the Droid X of tablets, where I like my X so much more than my previous phone the Iphone.

  • Anonymous

    Android will be the smart phone and tablet OS for the third world because Apple will not sell their devices cheap enough to be affordable outside the developed countries.

  • Anonymous

    I am happy for you, but understand in no way do you represent the typical tablet and smart phone user. They are mostly non-techie and/or totally uninterested in tinkering with their devices.

  • Anonymous

    Nobody. Nobody cares about ‘specs’ in the tablet market.

  • http://www.isights.org/ Michael Long

    You do realize, of course, that this is because Amazon doesn’t actually sell the iPad 2? Yes, there are some for sale via third parties, who’re only marking them up 150% or so, but none directly from Amazon or Apple at MSRP.

    Saying the Xoom is number one in this regard is sort of like my saying that my grandmother is number one… just as long as Ursain Bolt isn’t running today…

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_J6STTPBXOHFBXVJ6FCYB6KMGYQ Pat

    Remember.. Tablet market is different than cellphone or computer. Cellphones and Computers are indispensable, while tablet are not. One can do very well without a table. I don’t see anybody beating Apple in the tablet market anytime soon. Even with all the Galaxies, Xooms etc.. The market just operate differently than Cellphones or Computers…

  • http://profiles.google.com/mchu168 Michael Chu

    Agreed. I have a Xoom and love it. Honeycomb does have some minor shortcomings but the features it brings makes it a better choice than iPad, at least for me. And I’m certain that software updates in the near future from Google will continue to improve the user experience.

  • Anonymous

    You prefer your unrealistic predictions from a totally pro-Android person?

  • Anonymous

    No problem. Just can the product and build a pitch on how much they’ve learned. Seemed to work for MS with their Kin.

  • Anonymous

    Are you still growing for green?

  • http://blog.macb.net macbeach

    Oh boy, a Dud-bomb.

    Maybe these will be available at Tiger Direct for $59 soon.

    Personally I think they are just too big, like the iPad. If Apple actually gave users a choice of sizes I’m not at all sure that 10 inches would be the most popular.

    How or why should it be any different with “pad” devices, cell phones or PCs? Some will make it, others won’t.

    It’s a GOOD thing. ™.

  • http://blog.macb.net macbeach

    The third world. Coming to a major metropolitan area near you soon!

    Yes there are people who just love to spend money they don’t have to “because we can”.

    I see less and less of that in our countries future. We voted for change, and we are getting it.

  • Anonymous

    Liberated? And that’s why you were willing to pay so much for a device that delivers so little. Most people don’t feel that way. I am a professional software developer of sixteen years. I’ve written code in Java, C#, C++, a variety of scripting languages across different OSes and RDBMs using many tools. I have been quite fond of many things like Spring and Intellij Idea.

    I have *never* felt liberated by an OS. And OS just sits there.

  • Anonymous

    Baby Crying, but but but the Xoom and other Android Devices have better Specs, It’s Open, Baby Crying, Apple is a closed Gaaaaaaaaaaaarden, Android Phones sell more than Apple Phones, Android can run Flash, we have more choices, More Baby Crying, Apple is to easy to use, Android once re-engineered is Awesome..

  • http://profiles.google.com/freakqnc freakqnc .((•)).

    1) Have you noticed we are not swimming in gold? People still have other priorities before they consider buying things like tablets right? You know we still need to use what’s left of what the bank bailout robbed us of… overrated stuff like water, food and groceries, gas, utility bills, health insurance (another leech), diapers, monthly mass transit passes, and other similar luxury items! And “I can’t eat an iPad” nor a Xoom!
    2) With what those tablets cost today and offering little more than what a smartphone with a large screen already does how do one expect it to sell like the iPad one did?
    3) There are many selling iPads on ebay because they want to offset some of the money they will spend to buy iPad2… every iPad sold cheaper than new on ebay is a potential Xoom sale lost
    4) The iPad already flooded the market and those who own one would not buy a non-apple product so now let’s re-dimension the potential market… may not even be enough to sell 500K units!
    5) Honeycomb is still beta hence not many would spend that kind of money… the whiners who did like you two should be fair and put things into context. Those claiming it constantly crashed and blame it on the OS I’ll discard as mentally incapable to understand they may have a defective unit that need to be sent back immediately for replacement. So won’t spend any more time commenting on that.
    … and these are just a few points to keep it short!

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1194383998 Christopher Lomont

    Wow, there are a lot of immature people on this site. I have a Xoom, I love it. Yes, it does have some quirks right now but it is in no way as bad as you people make it out to be. Your comments about it crashing at every turn, and how lame and stupid you have to be to buy one shows your ignorance. I use my Xoom every day, all day. My wife uses my ipad. Different strokes for different folks. Do I know anyone else with a xoom? No. Do I care? Hell no. Why? Because Im happy with my device and I dont care what everyone else has.

  • http://twitter.com/Noiwex Sergei

    ??? ? ????

  • http://profiles.google.com/igotssharesinnoobishness IGotsShares InNoobishness

    They shipped 250,000+ according to Q1 2011 results.

  • http://profiles.google.com/igotssharesinnoobishness IGotsShares InNoobishness

    As above they shipped 250,000+ according to Q1 2011 results. Which makes Chowdary exactly what you say he is.

  • http://profiles.google.com/igotssharesinnoobishness IGotsShares InNoobishness

    That is such a stupid comment. They started at the top to get market presence. The cheaper tablets will follow and the brand name will already be out there.

    Go back to business school or shut up – you choose.

  • http://profiles.google.com/freakqnc freakqnc .((•)).

    Another useless article by a clueless drone calling himself a journalist. Bring back real news professionals and layoff glorified bloggers! Moving on…

  • http://blog.macb.net macbeach

    Shut up!

    I’m reporting you for being a clueless commenter.

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