John Paczkowski

Recent Posts by John Paczkowski

If Apple’s June Quarter Is Big, September’s Going to Be a Monster

When Apple reports its third-quarter earnings next week, expect another beat and guide, as the company continues to follow its well-established pattern of far exceeding its comically conservative next-quarter guidance.

If the company exceeds Wall Street estimates by an average margin, we’ll likely see earnings per share of $6.69 on revenue of $25.7 billion, a healthy beat over the $5.71 on $24.7 billion, says Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster. This during a quarter in which iPad 2 supplies were constrained and reports of a fall iPhone 5 launch tempered sales of the device.

Which is something to keep in mind as we look ahead to the September quarter.

If Apple can pull off the kind of financials Munster predicts for the June quarter under less than optimal conditions, what sort of numbers will it turn in for September, which will reflect healthy iPad supplies, the back-to-school season and, in all likelihood, new iPhone hardware?

Big ones.

“Looking ahead to the Sept. quarter, we expect a spike in iPhone sales to 21 million units with new hardware near the end of the quarter,” says Munster, in a note to clients. “The next-gen iPhone will be the first new iPhone launched at Verizon, and possibly Sprint, T-Mobile and international carriers as well, which could conservatively add 6 million units to our calendar 2012 iPhone estimate, taking growth from 35 percent to 43 percent.”

Add to that Mac and iPad sales tracking in line with expectations and you get a hell of a September quarter. Munster’s prediction: Apple will guide for $5.73 per share on revenue of $27.08 billion and then report earnings of $6.37 on $27.64 billion.

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I think the NSA has a job to do and we need the NSA. But as (physicist) Robert Oppenheimer said, “When you see something that is technically sweet, you go ahead and do it and argue about what to do about it only after you’ve had your technical success. That is the way it was with the atomic bomb.”

— Phil Zimmerman, PGP inventor and Silent Circle co-founder, in an interview with Om Malik