A “Conservative” Estimate: Apple Will Sell 48 Million iPads in Calendar 2012

Whether it debuts in February or in March, Apple’s hotly anticipated iPad 3 will likely raise the bar for its rivals, and perhaps further buttress a postulate we’ve discussed here before: Consumers don’t want tablets, they want iPads. The only question is one of degree.

Recent reports have added 4G LTE connectivity and a quad-core processor to a rumored spec list that already includes Siri voice recognition, better cameras, a higher-capacity battery and a much-improved display with double the pixel density of the iPad 2.

All of which sounds entirely reasonable, and certainly like the makings of a formidable successor to the iPad 2. Enough of one that analysts are already tweaking their sales estimates upward.

“We believe this significant refresh will likely help drive higher iPad sales and help further differentiate from arguably the only real competitor in the market, Amazon’s Kindle Fire, and not to mention the myriad of Android offerings out there,” says Sterne Agee analyst Shaw Wu. “We are currently modeling 48 million iPad shipments for calendar 2012.”

That’s an awfully big number, but it could prove too small before the year is out. Says Wu, “[48 million] could turn out conservative.”