Latest Guess at Kindle Sales: 5 Million This Year, 11.5 Million in 2012

Published on September 29, 2010
by John Paczkowski

bezos_thumb-150x150Since the Kindle’s launch in November of 2007, Amazon hasn’t been particularly forthcoming with the device’s sales figures. Trumpeting the latest iteration of the Kindle as “the fastest-selling ever” is about as specific as it’s gotten. So coming up with a yearly sales forecast for the Kindle is no easy task. But that doesn’t stop analysts from trying.

The latest to hazard a guess: Barclays’ Douglas Anmuth, who estimates that Amazon (AMZN) will sell about five million Kindles this year. Driving those sales, the device’s latest redesign and its more appealing $139/$189 price point.

“We expect Amazon will sell more than 5 million Kindles this year, going toward 11.5 million in 2012,” Anmuth says. “We believe a bifurcated market has clearly developed between more expensive, multi-function tablets and cheaper, dedicated eReaders. We expect the Kindle to maintain and even grow share of the eReader market, while Amazon’s Apps strategy enables the Kindle store to be the leading eBooks seller across a wide range of devices. We project total Kindle related revenue to reach $1.7 billion this year and grow to $4.3 billion in 2012.”

An interesting bit of crystal ball reading, particularly in light of Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos’s prediction this past summer: “I predict we will surpass paperback sales sometime in the next nine to 12 months. Sometime after that, we’ll surpass the combination of paperback and hardcover. It stuns me.”

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