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It’s going to be T-Mobile.

That’s the theory put forth by Kaufman Bros. analyst Shaw Wu, who argues that the carrier is a more likely candidate than Verizon (VZ) because its network wouldn’t require Apple (AAPL) to build a separate iPhone to support it.

“Currently, T-Mobile’s 3G service (UMTS/HSPA) supports 1700 MHz and 2100 MHz frequencies while AT&T supports 850 MHz and 1900 MHz frequencies,” Wu wrote in a note to clients today. “Interestingly, both the new iPhone 4 and iPhone 3GS support 3G at the 2100 MHz frequency and, from our understanding, the technical hurdle to support T-Mobile is minor compared to supporting CDMA technology at VZ and Sprint.”

That would certainly make the transition to multiple carriers in the U.S. easier for Apple, which would surely prefer not to have to customize the iPhone to gain increased distribution. But the payoff would be significantly reduced.

Today, Verizon is the largest U.S. wireless carrier, with 93 million subscribers. T-Mobile has just 34 million. A deal with the former would nearly double the iPhone’s addressable market; a deal with the latter would increase it by a little more than a third.

Unless Apple brought the iPhone to both T-Mobile and Sprint (S). Says Wu: “It is notable that signing up both T-Mobile and Sprint would almost be the equivalent of signing VZ.”

Of course, as Wu himself notes, Sprint’s network is CDMA and would require a customized iPhone, just like Verizon. So if Apple were to sign a deal with Sprint, it may as well sign one with Verizon.

“Yesterday, Steve Jobs unveiled, at his WWDC keynote, new iPhone 4 hardware and software,” said Kaufman Bros. analyst Shaw Wu. “While this was widely anticipated, we believe the rich features, refinement, and higher build quality are worth noting and difficult to comprehend without seeing and using the new iPhone first-hand. We believe the combination of a new form factor and software will likely serve as a powerful catalyst for iPhone 4 sales, as we have seen in the past with several AAPL products including the MacBook Pro, iMac, and iPod nano, to name a few.”

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster felt much the same way. “While the announced features of the iPhone 4 were as expected, the reality is this phone is significantly more advanced than the next best alternative,” Munster wrote in a note to clients. “We see the iPhone 4 as the most meaningful revision since the iPhone 3G two years ago. As such, we believe more existing iPhone users will be inclined to upgrade to the iPhone 4 than we saw with the iPhone 3GS.”

Munster notes as well that gee-whiz features like iPhone 4’s FaceTime video calling app, its HD video camera and iMovie video editing software are together creating an integrated experience that typically requires multiple devices. “The bottom line is the iPhone is taking unit and dollar share from other device categories,” he writes.

Indeed, it was hard to watch Apple’s (AAPL) demo of the device’s HD video camera working in concert with iMovie Monday and not think that it’s going to eat the Flip Video camcorder and Kodak’s (EK) Zi8 alive as soon as it arrives at market. And things don’t look much better for Google’s (GOOG) Android “superphones,” though obviously, there’s a much bigger battle to be fought there. Certainly, the company and its hardware partners have some serious work to do in the months ahead. (Yes, the EVO’s a great start. But its battery issues are troubling, as even HTC CEO Peter Chou conceded at D8 last week.)

Said RBC analyst Mike Abramsky, “Recent competitive Android smartphone launches by Android-powered phones have raised competitive intensity; however, to us, iMovie for iPhone (demonstrated at WWDC) may be illustrative of Apple’s advantage in vertical integration (software/ hardware). We expect Apple to launch other ‘Super Apps’ on iOS that advantage the platform (multimedia, geo-positioning, touch interface, etc). Bing introduction on iOS may portend a further shift away from reliance upon Google for mobile search….The ‘repositioning’ of Apple’s iPhone OS–to iOS–at WWDC accelerates Apple’s (re)assault to lead personal computing, as the industry evolves to mobile.”

“Five hundred dollars?…That is the most expensive phone in the world. And it doesn’t appeal to business because it doesn’t have a keyboard.”

– Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer on the iPhone, January 2007

Who was it, again, who said Apple’s iPhone “doesn’t appeal to business because it doesn’t have a keyboard”?

Because the device clearly does appeal to business. In fact, quite a few of the iPhones sold today are purchased by business users, according to Ron Spears, chief of AT&T’s (T) Business Solutions unit.

“Four out of 10 sales of the iPhone are made to enterprise users,” Spears said at an investor conference Thursday (via ZDnet’s Larry Dignan). “When the iPhone came out, what most people heard in the first year from ’07 to ’08 was ‘oh my God, it’s not BlackBerry secure. This is not going to work on the enterprise space.’ At the end of the day, it’s just software. That’s all it is.”

Elaborating on the history of adoption of the iPhone by business users, Spears notes, “And by the time the 3G came out in ’08 [Apple] had solved about 80 percent of the security issues. By the time the 3GS came out last summer, most CIOs will tell you today they have very few issues around the security that they need provided as they have come to know that RIM can do it because of the way RIM provides their solution. So enterprises today view the iPhone as a mobile computer.”

Evidently, Apple (AAPL) has succeeded in overcoming enterprise’s early misgivings about the iPhone’s security and business-readiness. Recall that last fall, the device scored highest in both the consumer and business categories of JD Power’s Smartphone Satisfaction Study. The iPhone scored 803 points out of a possible 1,000. That’s 79 points more than Research in Motion’s (RIMM) BlackBerry, which took second place with a score of 724 points, the industry average.

So says Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, who doesn’t expect the WWDC to have much in the way of big “Oh, One More Thing” moments. According to Munster, Apple will probably announce a fourth-generation iPhone at the conference, and the device will probably look a lot like the prototypes we saw earlier this spring.

“Consistent with recent media reports, we expect the new iPhone to feature a front-facing camera for video conferencing, along with a new, thinner design, an improved rear camera, and better battery life, with higher capacity (32GB/64GB) at the current $199/$299 price points,” Munster writes. “We expect the new version to be popular among current iPhone 3G owners (a 2 year-old device) with a significantly different design and feature set (unlike the 3GS).”

The company is also likely to offer an update on iPad sales. Since that device’s launch in April, Apple (AAPL) has announced iPad sales figures three times. WWDC would be a perfect time to do so again.

And Apple may offer a peek at the next version of Mac OS. “Apple may choose to provide a limited demo of the next version of Mac OS X (10.7) at WWDC,” Munster says.

“Software is a key differentiator for Apple but the Mac OS has not seen the same level of innovation as iPhone software in recent years,” the analyst adds. “With the next version of Mac OS X, we expect Apple to bring some of the same innovation to the Mac platform. Multi-touch technology, for example could be a key feature of Mac OS 10.7.”

But beyond these offerings, don’t expect much. As for rumors that WWDC will see the announcement of a Verizon (VZ) iPhone: Don’t pay them much heed.

Certainly, Munster doesn’t put much faith in them. “We believe it is unlikely that the next generation iPhone will be available at Verizon (or Sprint) at launch,” he says. “Rather, it is more likely that it remains exclusively available at AT&T in the US at launch.”

This morning, the retailer cut the price of iPhone 3GS devices with 16 gigabytes of memory from $197 to $97 with a two-year service contract. Wal-Mart claims the reduction is simply part of its “ongoing aggressive savings announcements.” But coming as it does amid speculation about the launch of a new iPhone (and rumors of the discontinuation of the 8GB iPhone 3G), it is being interpreted as a move to clear out inventory before that device arrives at market.

Meanwhile, Apple (AAPL) and AT&T (T) continue to sell the 16GB iPhone 3GS at its original price, though I can’t imagine that this will continue much longer. When Apple introduced the iPhone 3GS in June 2009, AT&T slashed the price of the entry-level 8GB iPhone 3G to $99.

The company is expected to do the same thing this year with the low-end 3GS. And, as it did last year, that price cut will likely spur adoption of the device among the lower tiers of AT&T’s customer base. As BTIG Research analyst Walter Piecyk observed in a note to clients this morning:

We estimate that last years price cut of the iPhone 3G to $99 stimulated more than 3 million phone sales to existing AT&T customers that helped the company further penetrate the family plan with higher ARPU, lower churn customers. We believe the impact could be even larger this year for AT&T given its the broad market acceptance of the iPhone, the halo impact of the iPad and the installed base of iPhones that will need to be upgraded to a 3GS phone in order to benefit from Apple’s latest upgrade to its iPhone OS 4.0.

Here’s a stunner of a data point: Apple is selling more than 200,000 iPads per week. Which means, according to RBC Capital Markets analyst Mike Abramsky, that sales of the company’s new device have outpaced those of the Mac in the United States and are closing in on those of the iPhone 3GS.

“Checks indicate that US iPad sales remain strong post-launch, driven by rising consumer visibility to iPad’s user experience, sustained PR/word-of-mouth marketing, 3G iPad launch, and broadening iPad apps/content,” Abramsky wrote in a note to clients this morning. “We believe Apple is now selling >200k iPads/week, greater than US Macs (est. 110k Macs/week) and just below US iPhone 3GS first quart (246k/week).”

Evidently, there’s quite a bit of pent-up demand for the device. Retail checks in mid-May showing widespread iPad stockouts at Apple (AAPL) stores and Best Buy (BBY). The 3G iPad is sold out at many Apple stores, and about 25 percent of them now have only Wi-Fi iPads available. Waiting lists are not uncommon.

With that in mind–not to mention the device’s forthcoming international launch–Abramsky raised his global iPad outlook for 2010 from five million to eight million.

Abramsky’s is one of the most bullish iPad sales estimates to date, though it certainly has company. Earlier this year, Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi predicted sales will hit five million units in the first year, while Morgan Stanley (MS) analyst Katy Huberty said they’d likely exceed six million. (Click on table and chart below to enlarge.)

One last point: Before we go jumping to conclusions about cannibalization of Mac sales, recall Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster’s remarks after reviewing NPD’s April sales data for Apple:

The iPad launched in US Apple retail stores on 4/3, impacting nearly the entire month of Apple’s sales in April. As a result, April NPD data gives us the first sign of the degree to which the iPad cannibalizes iPod or Mac sales. From the early NPD data, it appears that the iPad has a minimal cannibalization impact on Mac sales, and could be slightly cannibalizing iPod sales.

[Image credit: Gizmodo commenter modestmouse and RBC Capital Markets]

Apple’s main concern about multitasking has always been its negative effect on battery life. But this morning, noting that “we weren’t the first to this party, but we’re going to be the best,” Steve Jobs announced that iPhone OS 4 will, indeed, offer multitasking.

No real specifics yet on how the company overcame the power issue, but SVP of Software Scott Forstall took the stage to talk about seven multitasking services that will be available to developers:

• Background audio streaming
• Voice over Internet protocol (VoIP)
• Background location
• Push notifications
• Local notifications
• Task completion
• Fast app switching

Jobs noted that multitasking will be available only for the iPhone 3GS, third-generation iPod touch and iPad.

“We estimate Apple sold between 600-700k iPads (including online pre-orders which started on March 12th) on the first day (4/3),” he wrote. “It took Apple three days to sell a million iPhone 3GS and iPhone 3G’s, and 74 days to sell 1m original iPhones.”

Interestingly, Munster said that inventory is not quite as constrained as one would think given Apple’s decision last week to push some iPad pre-order shipments ahead to April 12.

“As of 7:30PM ET on Saturday night (4/3), 19 of 20 stores we called still had availability of all models, which is a positive for first day sales given Apple was able to fulfill most demand,” Munster wrote.

“In addition,” the analyst continued, “we noted longer than expected lines at the five Apple stores we surveyed. For example, at the 5th Ave Store in New York we counted 730 people in line at 9am (when iPad sales began) compared to our count of 350 people for iPhone 3GS, and 540 people for iPhone 3G.”

Going head-to-head with the iPhone 3GS on AT&T will be difficult enough for Palm (PALM). Competing with the smartphone’s souped-up successor on AT&T (T) and perhaps Verizon (VZ) could be disastrous.

The Apple (AAPL) iPhone has been AT&T’s hero device since launch, and that’s not going to change anytime soon. Said a company spokesman: “The iPhone will be an important device for us for quite sometime.”

The Pre Plus and Pixi Plus less so, I imagine. It’s a safe bet that the same will be true of Verizon if the carrier adds the iPhone to its lineup. Analysts mulling the consequences of such a deal say that pent-up demand for the iPhone on Verizon’s network could result in a massive burst of iPhone subscribers for the company.

One scenario put forth by Bernstein Research this morning suggests Verizon could stand to gain 6.4 million new iPhone subscribers in 2010 alone, many of them existing Verizon subscribers upgrading to the iPhone. Which would obviously leave fewer subscribers to upgrade to Palm’s devices.

That leaves Palm in a position that’s arguably worse than the one it found itself in when its devices debuted on Verizon, a position it blamed for its lousy third quarter. “If we could have launched at Verizon prior to the Droid, I think we would have gotten the attention the Droid got,” Palm CEO Jon Rubinstein said at the time.

But as I noted last week, Palm did not launch prior to the Droid. And now the company is launching on AT&T just as the carrier presumably prepares to introduce a new Apple iPhone (iPhone HD?).

Now it’s looking like all the hard work Palm did to evangelize its webOS phones at Verizon could be overwhelmed by the deluge of interest almost certain to accompany a Verizon iPhone.

Which leaves Palm in a vulnerable position, indeed. CEO Rubinstein claims Palm should have gotten the attention garnered by Droid. Will he make similar claims if Palm suffers further woes from a next-generation iPhone on AT&T–or a brand new one on Verizon?

FURTHER READING:

• A Palliative for Palm
• Good Luck Competing on the iPhone’s Home Turf, Palm
• Exercise in Futility? Palm Pre Plus, Pixi Plus Headed to AT&T
• Palm: Pssst. Wanna Buy 1.15 Million Smartphones?
• Palm Pileup: Weak Smartphone Sales and a Gruesome Q4 Forecast
• Could Be Worse, Could Be Raining: Palm’s AT&T Launch Delayed?
• Could WebOS Licensing Be Palm’s Salvation?
• Palm’s Salvation? Less Push, More Pull.
• And if Palm’s Project JumpStart Doesn’t Work Out, There’s Always “Project Defibrillator”
• Double Face-Palm: Analysts React to Palm’s Lowered Guidance
• Time to Start Looking for a Buyer, Palm?
• 2010: Year of the Palm? Maybe Not…
• Analyst: Palm May Be Acquired in the Next Two Years

“We expect Apple to launch new iPhones in June that offer both a lower total cost of ownership and new functionality, potentially including gesture-based technology,” she wrote in a note to clients today. “As we’ve highlighted in the past, the cost of device + service plan is currently the biggest barrier to incremental demand in both mature markets like the US and emerging markets like China.”

Now, when Apple (AAPL) introduced the 3GS in 2009, it dropped the price of the iPhone 3G to $99, so it seems reasonable to expect the company to follow a similar pattern when it introduces a new iPhone. Might the price of the new device itself also be lower than expected? Perhaps. Certainly the fact that Apple was able to bring the iPad to market at $499 suggests it’s possible.

More intriguing than these ruminations on price, however, is Huberty’s mention of new “gesture-based technology.” The analyst doesn’t offer any details on what this might be, but presumably she’s referring to advances disclosed in some recent Apple patent filings.

Among the possibilities here: A touch-sensitive bezel that would turn the outer edges of the device into intelligent “sense lines” that give users quick and easy access to their favorite applications, and some camera-based swipe controls that offer one-handed control over a variety of iPhone functions.

Here’s a description of the latter from Patently Apple, which does a far better job explaining these things than I ever could.

[This] patent reveals yet another innovative concept that is designed to help users control their incoming calls and voicemail by simply swiping their finger over the external camera lens. It will control rewinding and fast forwarding voicemail. In addition, the new methodology will also enhance one handed navigation of Web pages, documents, a contact list or your iTunes library by simply swiping the camera lens in different swiping motion combinations. In the future, the iPad may be able to take advantage of this feature if the camera is positioned correctly. This would theoretically allow a user to simply flick a finger over the camera lens to turn the page of a book or scroll a webpage without ever having to move your hand.

Sounds pretty slick, yeah? Certainly, a feature like this would take smartphone navigation to a new level. Were it to be included in a next-generation iPhone along with a five-megapixel camera, LED flash and video chat support that’s rumored–well, Apple might not need the lower price point as Huberty suggests to juice demand for the device.

The mobile analysis firm observed that the number of developers adding the iPhone tracking code to new projects rose from 600 in December to over 1,600 in January (see chart below; click to enlarge). Driving that threefold increase: Enthusiasm generated by Apple’s iPad event.

“Historically, Flurry has measured surges in new application starts within its system in anticipation of new device launches, including for the Motorola Droid and iPhone 3GS,” Flurry’s Peter Farago explained.

“As such,” Farago noted, “we hypothesize that excitement generated by Apple’s iPad event in January is driving this growth. For developers who get a jump on customizing their applications for the iPad, there may be an opportunity to stand out early on, and earn more downloads.”

A reasonable assumption–with an important caveat: Developers really haven’t had much time to play with the iPad software development kit, yet.

“I think this data has more to do with iPhone application growth after the holiday break than it does developers ramping up for iPad,” Raven Zachary, president of Small Society and an iPhone evangelist, told me.

“We only had access to the iPad SDK for the last five days of January,” Zachary explained. “Generally, developers don’t integrate analytics at the very beginning of a development project. February and March will be far more representative of new iPad development projects. I would expect a bump specific to iPad then.”

That said, Flurry’s metrics are certainly worth noting because they suggest that developer interest in the iPhone platform is far from hitting a plateau. This is particularly true given the prospect of building new iPad-specific applications that take advantage of the device’s increased screen real estate and that speedy little A4 chip it’s running.

[Image credit: Gizmodo/Akis Alekozidis]

An unremarkable showing, to say the least–especially for a device launched amid so much buzz. Flurry estimates that Nexus One was outsold by Motorola’s (MOT) Droid by more than 12 times and by Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone 3GS 80 times.

Now, Flurry’s Nexus One sales estimate is obviously the roughest of guesses–the company gets its numbers by monitoring application usage on the iPhone and Android platforms, not from any hard sales data. That said, it’s likely at least directionally correct and suggests that Google (GOOG) may have a tough time moving the five to six million Nexus One handsets analysts have been calling for it to sell by the end of 2010–especially if customer support issues associated with the superphone continue.

That’s almost $5 less than the $179 T-Mobile is charging for the device with a two-year service plan. But its about a third of the phone’s unsubsidized price–$530.

Which is interesting because, according to Google (GOOG) VP of Engineering Andy Rubin, the guy who quarterbacked the Nexus One’s development, smartphones, even “super” ones–shouldn’t be that expensive. “The thing I carry around in my pocket every day…shouldn’t cost four hundred dollars,” Rubin once told Ken Auletta, author of “Googled: The End of the World As We Know It.” “That’s absurd. If you add up all the components, somebody is making a lot of money.”

That somebody, in this case, would appear to be Google–though to be fair, iSuppli’s analysis doesn’t account for manufacturing, packaging, and software expenses, not to mention R&D costs, which are likely quite substantial.

One last point worth noting here, the Nexus One’s teardown cost is slightly more than that of Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone 3GS. iSuppli figures the cost of materials for that device is about $172.46.

First, the search giant is bringing out a beautiful, sleek new Android phone, the Nexus One, built to its specifications. Second, it has decided to offer the new phone—and future models—to consumers directly, unlocked, via the Web, and then invite multiple carriers to compete to sell service plans and subsidized versions of the hardware.

One carrier is ready to support the Nexus One on day one: the U.S. arm of T-Mobile, a longstanding Google (GOOG) partner. The new Google Phone, built by HTC of Taiwan, will cost $529 unlocked direct from Google, at google.com/phone. It will cost $179 from T-Mobile online with a two-year contract that will set you back $79.99 a month.

Verizon Wireless (VZ) in the U.S. and Vodafone (VOD) in Europe will sell the Nexus One eventually at subsidized prices that haven’t yet been announced. All of this will take place on a Google-hosted Web site, a much easier way to buy a phone and service than is typical today, and one that promises to further weaken the power of the carriers.

The company also plans to sell the costlier, unsubsidized version to consumers in the U.K., Hong Kong and Singapore immediately. Like Americans who buy this unlocked version, these customers will have to purchase carrier service separately, something they should be able to obtain right away by just buying and inserting a SIM card from a carrier with compatible technology. (This initial unlocked phone won’t work with Verizon or Sprint in the U.S., nor on AT&T’s 3G network, only the latter’s slower network.)

The Nexus One has a larger screen than Apple’s phone, and is a bit thinner, narrower and lighter—if a tad longer. And it boasts a better camera and longer talk time between battery charges.

I’ve been testing the Nexus One for a couple of weeks and I like it a lot. It’s the best Android phone so far, in my view, and the first I could consider carrying as my everyday hand-held computer. It is a svelte gray device with a 3.7-inch, high-resolution screen; a thin strip of buttons underneath for home, back, menu and search; and a trackball.

The Nexus One finally has the right combination of hardware and software to give Android a champion that might attract more people away from their iconic iPhones and BlackBerrys. It has a larger screen than Apple’s phone, and is a bit thinner, narrower and lighter—if a tad longer. And it boasts a better camera and longer talk time between battery charges.

Also, because it will be available on the large, well-regarded Verizon 3G network, the Nexus One could tempt American iPhone users, tired of problems with AT&T (T), to switch.

The iPhone still retains some strong advantages. It boasts well over 100,000 third-party apps—around 125,000 by some unofficial estimates—versus around 18,000 for the Android platform. And it has vastly more memory for storing apps, so you can keep many more of them on your phone at any one time. On the Nexus One, only 190 megabytes of its total 4.5 gigabytes of memory is allowed for storing apps. On the $199 iPhone, nearly all of the 16 gigabytes of memory can be used for apps.

In fact, the $199 iPhone 3GS has roughly four times as much user-accessible memory out of the box, though the memory on the Nexus One can be expanded via memory cards. Apple also has a more-fluid user interface, with multitouch gestures for handling photos and Web pages.

As for the BlackBerry, its user interface looks older and clumsier with each passing day, but it has a beautiful physical keyboard many users love, while the Nexus One has a virtual, onscreen keyboard.

The Nexus One is packed with its own tricks. Its version of Android is essentially the same improved edition as the one that appeared on the Motorola (MOT) Droid back in November. But it has a few new features, including an experimental dictation capability. You just press a microphone icon on the keyboard and start talking, and the words appear. In my tests, this worked only adequately at best, and very poorly at worst, but Google insists it will learn and improve.

The phone also has handsome new visual features, including “live wallpaper,” with waving grass or pulsing colored lines; and a new zooming effect when you want to view icons that aren’t on your main screens. In addition, you can now view miniatures of your five main screens to help you navigate to the one you want.

The Nexus One also has all the key software features introduced in the Droid, including free turn-by-turn voice-prompted navigation.

In my tests, overall, the Nexus One worked very well. The latency I had seen in earlier Android phones is gone, due to a slicker version of the operating system and faster chips. The phone feels good in the hand and the screen is magnificent, with much greater resolution than the iPhone’s.

I like very much the way social-networking information, including status messages, is integrated into the contacts app. One tap on a person’s picture in Contacts lets you quickly choose whether to call, email or message her, or map her address—all without opening the contact card itself.

I also liked the pictures and videos I was able to take with the five-megapixel camera and flash, which I preferred to my iPhone’s camera. You can even view a photo slideshow or listen to music when the phone is in the optional desktop dock.

But there are some downsides to the Nexus One. Like all Android phones, it relies too much, in my view, on menus that create extra steps, including some menus that have a built-in “more” button to display a secondary menu of choices.

I also found the four buttons etched into the phone’s bottom panel sticky and hard to press. In addition, although the Nexus One claims seven hours of talk time versus five hours for the iPhone, most of its battery-life claims for other functions are weaker than Apple’s.

For instance, Google claims just 6.5 hours of Wi-Fi Web use per charge, versus nine for the iPhone, and 20 for music playback versus 30. Google claims this is because, unlike Apple, it allows the simultaneous use of third-party apps, which can drain the battery faster.

In addition, the Nexus One, and other Android devices, still pale beside the iPhone for playing music, video and games. The apps available for these functions aren’t nearly as sophisticated as on the Apple devices.

Finally, the iPhone is still a better apps platform. Not only are there more apps, but, in my experience, iPhone apps are generally more polished and come in more varieties.

But, with its fresh phone and bold business model, Google is taking Android to a new level, and that should ramp up the competition in the super-smartphone space.

Find all of Walt Mossberg’s columns and videos online, free, at the All Things Digital Web site, walt.allthingsd.com. Email him at mossberg@wsj.com.

Write to Walter S. Mossberg at walt.mossberg@wsj.com

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20100105/googles-nexus-one-is-bold-new-face-in-super-smartphones/feed/ 0 http://allthingsd.com/20091113/apple-smartphone/ http://allthingsd.com/20091113/apple-smartphone/#comments Fri, 13 Nov 2009 15:05:13 +0000 John Paczkowski http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/?p=28923 Lest there be any doubt that Apple’s iPhone is redefining the smartphone market, consider this: In less than two and a half years, the device has managed to claim nearly a fifth of the worldwide market for smartphones.

According to new data released this week by Gartner, Apple shipped some 7.04 million iPhones in the third quarter–up from just 4.72 million phones in the same period a year ago–for a 17.1 percent share of the market (see table below; click to enlarge).

That’s a 49.2 percent year-over-year increase in sales and it puts Apple (AAPL) in spitting distance of Research in Motion (RIMM), which also posted close to a 50 percent year-over-year gain to claim 21 percent of smartphone sales during the period.

With 39 percent of smartphone sales, Nokia (NOK) was the top seller during the period, and it’s clearly not ceding its spot any time soon. But RIM might, given the small gap between its market share and Apple’s.

In any case, RIM clearly has a fight on its hands as we head in the holidays, especially if Apple brings an 8GB iPhone 3GS to market in the next few weeks.

UPDATE: According to Apple’s last earnings announcement, the company said it shipped 7.4 million iPhones during the quarter. Why there’s a discrepancy between the company’s numbers and Gartner’s isn’t clear.

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20091113/apple-smartphone/feed/ 0 http://allthingsd.com/20091109/econalypse-no-deterrent-to-smartphone-purchases/ http://allthingsd.com/20091109/econalypse-no-deterrent-to-smartphone-purchases/#comments Mon, 09 Nov 2009 12:45:00 +0000 John Paczkowski http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/?p=28481 Given the havoc the econalypse has played with other industries, the smart-phone market is in extraordinarily good shape. Shipments of the devices rose 4.2 percent to 43.3 million globally compared with 41.5 million shipped in the third quarter of 2008. That’s up 3.2 percent from shipments of 41.9 million in the second quarter of this year, according to IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker report.

“Demand for converged mobile devices has remained strong all year,” said IDC analyst Ramon Llamas. Driving that demand: Nokia (NOK), which maintained its position as the overall leader in the converged mobile device market, Research In Motion (RIMM), whose BlackBerry made some significant share gains internationally, and Apple (AAPL) and the iPhone, whose share of the smart-phone market rose to 17.1 percent from 16.6 percent in the previous quarter (see table below; click to enlarge).

“Apple reached its highest volume yet in a single quarter,” Llamas said. “The nearly global availability of the iPhone 3GS sparked another round of annual replacements for Apple loyalists, while the lower price on the iPhone 3G put the device well within reach of customers wary of the price. Although the iPhone has struggled within emerging markets, its arrival at China Unicom this year could foreshadow greater shipment volumes.”

[Image credit: AMUSEMENT]

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