More Optimism for Big Media and Big Ad Budgets

Things looked positively awful a year ago in medialand. So when prognosticators say things are improving, it’s important to remember that it’s all relative. Still, if you’re among those who, say, make their living working for an ad-supported media outlet, it sure is nice to see this sort of thing: Barclays analyst Anthony DiClemente jacking up his 2010 U.S. ad market estimates from no growth to a 3.5 percent bump.

FTC Evidently Unimpressed by Google’s “Facts About Google’s Acquisition of AdMob” Web Site

When Google first announced its acquisition of mobile advertising outfit AdMob, the company said it didn’t anticipate regulatory concerns, but wouldn’t be surprised if there was some regulatory review. A reasonable stance given the Obama administration’s stated concerns about Google’s domineering presence in the market for Internet search advertising. Prescient, too, because, according to The Wall Street Journal, the Federal Trade Commission is indeed reviewing the $750 million acquisition.
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Waiting for Online Ads to Roar Back? Be Patient.

Add one more voice to the chorus of conventional wisdom: The Web ad market has stopped getting worse, but it’s going to be a while before it starts getting healthy.
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Whoops! Are Reports of the Ad Recovery Greatly Exaggerated?

Here’s the counterpoint to Publicis’s mildly optimistic take on the ad market yesterday: Rival ad-holding company Interpublic Group’s report, which is mildly pessimistic. But the takeaway is the same: If things get better, anyone who’s not Google won’t see much real sign of it until next year.
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Some More Positive Murmurs for Web Ads

More upbeat–but not too ecstatic–chatter about the state of the Internet advertising market this morning from Wall Street: Barclays Capital analyst Douglas Anmuth is raising his estimates for Google, citing “improving macro conditions [and] a stronger ad market.” Other online advertising bulls: Investors, who have been pushing up Google stock for months, and CEO Eric Schmidt, who has declared that the worst is over.
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Live From New York: Yahoo Introduces “You”

CEO Carol Bartz explains what Yahoo is getting for its $100 million ad campaign, its first global marketing effort, which was launched today in New York during Advertising Week. Here’s the rundown of Bartz’s press conference on the branding blowout.
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Is There Really a Recovery in the Works? Time to Check With Google.

Is the ad market really starting to rebound? Or is the (muted, cautious) happy talk we we’re hearing this spring just happy talk? Time to take a peek at Google’s quarterly earnings this afternoon, which might give us some insight. As per Google’s last report card, Wall Street is expecting the company’s revenue to decline from the previous quarter–unthinkable for Google in prior years, but now no longer a shock. But Wall Street will be looking for both numerical and qualitative hints that things are getting better, or at least have bottomed out.
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Ad Market Looks Worse Than Expected, Which Is What We Expected

It has been three months since Zenith Optimedia revised its ad market forecast downward. Which means it’s time to knock it down once again. The ad buying firm now thinks the market will shrink by 8.5 percent this year, which is worse than the 6.9 percent decrease it predicted in April, which was worse than the 0.2 percent decrease it threw out in December. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, of course. But anyone want to bet on what happens in three months?
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Another Down Quarter for Disney, but Cable’s OK

A bad quarter for Disney, but it could have been worse–at least Wall Street was expecting it. After factoring out one-time charges and write-offs, Bob Iger and company earned 43 cents a share on revenues of $8.1 billion. Wall Street had been looking for 40 cents and $8.15 billion, respectively. The bright spot for the entertainment conglomerate is the same one you see at every media giant these days: Disney’s cable business.
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Media Execs Get a Little Less Grouchy: Are Ads Creeping Back?

Newsflash: More data confirm that ad spending was really bad last year. But ad execs–at least those in certain industries–say things may be bottoming out this spring.
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