Underwhelmed

The majority of TV ad buyers say they think their spots are less useful than they used to be. At least according to a new study from Forrester-ANA, which surveys top advertisers: 62 percent feel TV ads “are not as effective” as they were two years ago.

The Forrester (FORR) study is full of nuggets that will cheer those who want to radically transform the TV ad model. For instance:

• Ad buyers have reduced the amount they are spending on TV and are now allotting just 41 percent of their budgets to the boob tube, compared with 58 percent in 2008.
• 66 percent think DVRs “will destroy or reduce the effectiveness” of the 30-second ad.
• They overwhelmingly hate the existing metrics used to measure TV programming.
• 63 percent think Google (GOOG) will dominate “tomorrow’s big advertising winners,” ahead of cable operators (53 percent), cable networks (47 percent) and broadcast networks (nine percent).

So when can we declare traditional TV ads DOA? No time soon. Even in decline, TV ads are a $70 billion business, give or take a billion, and it’s going to take a lot effort to move an industry that size–even mighty Google has had no luck to date.

That’s a lot of Superpokin’….

Apparently our self-righteous outrage over Facebook’s tweaks of its Terms of Service or claims that social networks are haunted by sexual predators has done little to dampen our enthusiasm for them. “Social networking has become a fundamental part of the global online experience,” said Nielsen Online CEO John Burbank in one of those “Fire: Hot, Bread: Good” announcements. “While two-thirds of the global online population already accesses member community sites, their vigorous adoption and the migration of time show no signs of slowing. Social networking will continue to alter not just the global online landscape, but the consumer experience at large.”

Unfortunately for the companies playing in the space, social networking hasn’t yet done the same for the advertising experience. Indeed, as Nielsen notes, “The current level of advertising activity on social networks isn’t consummate with the size–and highly engaged levels–of the audience.” Nor will it be, unless the sites figure out a way to exploit the personal data of their users without making them feel like their privacy has been invaded. Nielsen’s big idea for achieving that goal: trial and error. “New approaches to the ad model are required for this challenging and complex arena,” the company explains. “It will take time to work out the magic formula for successfully advertising in social networks. The diversity and personalised nature of the environment means standard ad models–such as contextual search and standard unit sizes–won’t cut it. Different approaches across ad units and ad inventory will have to be tried, involving a trial and error mindset.”

Trial and error, eh? That’s been Facebook’s strategy hasn’t it? And as I recall, it hasn’t exactly been working out too well…