As long as they keep paying for TV.

But even if consumers go for that deal, the TV guys need to make sure that advertisers buy in, too.

And that won’t happen until the TV guys can get some basic stuff right. Like counting eyeballs, no matter where they watch a show.

That could still take a while. Witness Comcast’s announcement yesterday, made at the cable industry’s annual convention in Boston, that it has been working with Nielsen on a plan to count viewers when they watched video on an iPad*, using Comcast’s Xfinity app.

For various technical reasons, this is much harder than you’d think, and the two companies have already been beavering away at this for 18 months. Now they’re launching a trial, and Comcast executive Matt Strauss is optimistic that they can work the kinks out by 2013, and advertisers could have true “multiplatform measurement.”

But that only works if all of the big pay-TV providers sign on to the new technology. And the media-measurement business is full of different tests and initiatives, all shooting off in different directions.

Last week, for instance, Spanish-language powerhouse Univision announced a “video neutral” deal with media-buying agency Starcom, which is supposed to mean Univision gets credit for its stuff no matter where anyone watches it. But the announcement describing the deal doesn’t explain how Univision or Starcom will track those eyeballs.

Meanwhile, Nielsen’s rival eyeball-counter comScore recently announced that it had its own technology in place to measure mobile devices like phones and tablets. And earlier this year it announced its own “multiscreen research initiative,” where it paired up with AT&T.

But comScore isn’t tracking any traffic on connected devices, like Google TVs, Apple TVs or Microsoft Xboxes. So if any of that really is taking off, that’s yet another headache.

Shouldn’t this stuff be easier? After all, we’ve figured out how to get the video all of these places — why can’t we count it, too?

On the other hand, recall that the iPhone is still a mere five years old, and the iPad is only two. That’s a blink of an eye for the measurement guys, who move deliberately because there’s billions of ad dollars at stake, no matter what they do. But they may still have to speed things up.

*Or, theoretically, on another tablet.

(Image courtesy of Shutterstock/Liewluck)

That is, more people are watching Web stuff on Microsoft’s machine than on the iPad, iPhone or any Android machine, anywhere. And when it comes to home viewing, competitors like Apple TV, Google TV and Roku are so far behind they’re not even competitors.

This data comes from Freewheel, an online video ad company, and it comes with caveats. We’ll get to those below. But first, take a look:

Now the asterisks: Freewheel is only measuring “professional content” that runs with ads, because that’s how it makes its living. So that means it’s counting stuff from companies like NBC, CBS, ESPN and Vevo, but not YouTube cat videos. It’s also not measuring Netflix usage. On the other hand, this isn’t a poll or sample, but data compiled by the company’s own ad servers.

So it’s possible there’s some variance here with the larger Web video world, but it seems reasonable to assume that this is at least directionally correct. At the very least, it gives credence to Microsoft’s claim that Xbox users are spending more time watching videos on the machines than playing games, and that its deals with conventional TV programmers may be bearing fruit.

And it shows you how much ground Google will need to make up as it gets ready to relaunch its Google TV. Ditto for Apple, if and when it ever gets serious about transforming Apple TV into something other than a “hobby.”

So why did the number of pay-TV subscribers increase in just the last three months?

They didn’t grow much — a modest 422,000 subscribers, for a very modest 0.2 percent growth rate — but they still grew.

Those numbers come from Bernstein Research’s Craig Moffett, a longtime skeptic that “cord-cutting” is a real and pervasive problem for the cable guys (at least for now). It’s not the first time he’s shown evidence of barely-there growth for cable TV — last quarter, for instance, he gathered similar numbers.

But his numbers do conflict with other reports that show evidence of cord-cutting. Earlier this month, for instance, Nielsen said that pay-TV subscribers had shrunk by 1.5 million in 2011.

The easiest way to reconcile Moffett’s numbers with other reports is to note that almost all of the analyst’s data comes from the publicly traded pay-TV providers themselves — like Comcast, Time Warner Cable and Verizon — in the reports they offer up to shareholders. Most of the other stuff you’re seeing comes from polls and surveys.

Here’s his data. You’ll need to click the image to enlarge it:

But what about all of you folks who tell me, over and over, that you’ve ditched cable for some kind of combo of Netflix, Hulu, Apple TV, or even pirate streams? Surely I’ll hear from some of you again, just as soon as I publish this.

And I believe you folks, too. I can certainly imagine many scenarios where tech-savvy people — and even not-that-tech-savvy people — are able to satisfy their video urges without paying for a TV subscription. But my operating theory, for now, remains my vegan analogy: “They’re real, and they’re out there. They’re particularly notable in certain places like New York, the Bay Area and college towns. And they over-index at certain Web gathering places, like this one. But McDonald’s sales are still chugging along.”

But over the last several years, the Internet has upheaved the aphorism.

It used to be that media was linear. And in that world, content and distribution were married. The HBO channel had HBO content. A New York Times subscription bought you New York Times content. And Vogue and Cosmopolitan each month delivered exclusive and proprietary content from … Vogue and Cosmopolitan.

Until the Internet came along. In every single one of the varied businesses the Internet has touched — from commerce to media to communications to payments — there has been one common impact: disaggregation.

Content and distribution have parted

In the case of the hundreds-of-years-old media business, the Internet has fundamentally separated content from distribution.

Today I can watch hundreds of South Park and Jon Stewart clips, all without a cable box — on my Apple TV, my Android phone, or YouTube on my desktop.

But wait, South Park and Jon Stewart? Content is king, you say. It’s now even more free to reign, unfettered by distribution channels!

No; because content is no longer enough. Content has always been a means to an end. And the end has always been audience.

Content isn’t the goal. Audience is.

When it comes to the business of media, there’s no question: advertisers don’t pay to reach content. They pay to reach an audience.

What’s the first item in every brief from every advertiser? It’s not Target Content, it’s Target Audience.

Media has been slow to adjust to this new dynamic. Companies have sunk billions into content management systems — using CMS as the cornerstone of their modernization — under the impression that they traffic in content.

But they don’t. They traffic in audience. And how much have they spent on audience development systems? Not much, if any at all.

Now that distribution of content to audience is no longer linear, distribution decisions are suddenly more complicated. And, at the same time, they are immensely more important — and more dynamic — to create the impact media companies are looking for: drawing an audience! Social distribution can outperform search, if you use it wisely. Day-parting your postings can boost post performance by 100 percent or more. Packaging can triple the effectiveness of content in reaching an audience.

And yet, few in media have even begun to optimize these decisions.

Who’s your Chief Audience Officer?

Distribution decisions are just as important as content decisions in building and serving an audience, and yet they are being largely ignored. Everyone has an Editor-In-Chief or a Chief Creative Officer. But how many have a Distributor-In-Chief? Or a Chief Audience Officer? A Head of Digital Programming?

The myopic focus on content over distribution is widespread, and it’s a bad business decision. It ignores a critical access of leverage, and one of competitive advantage.

The smartest media companies will do three things to take control of their digital opportunity:

• Put someone in charge of audience development.
  Give them latitude to think about the interplay between distribution and content, so that they can marry the two. Like a head of programming for a cable network, they should be tasked to realize the full potential of your digital channels. They should support the delivery of your content, and they should also provide back pressure to your content creators. Don’t merge it into your editorial jobs — that’s too precarious. Make it its own discipline.
• Adopt an audience development strategy.
  There are three basic components you have to master: insights (know your audience segments, and what each one will like); channel selection (identify the highest value distribution outlets for your brand, whether it’s search, social, YouTube, Hulu, or your own channels); and optimization (use data to create a feedback loop and tune your content, packaging, and timing to what works for your audience).
• Systematize it.
  You have sunk millions into content management systems. But how much have you spent on your most monetizable asset, your audience? You should be as systematic in audience development as you are in content creation, if not more so. Whether it’s with established processes or dedicated algorithms, make audience development a competitive advantage. Get so good at it that you truly know how to maximize every piece of content you create — and multiply your ROI. Use technology for what it does best: Systematize your advantages over your competitors.

With the rise of new distribution platforms like Facebook, YouTube and Hulu, there’s no question that the next generation of digital media is as much about distribution as it is about content. Media companies that orient their organizations to prize audience development above all (with distribution as a key component) will catch the upside of these tectonic shifts. And they will be the ones that survive and thrive in the digital age. After all, audience is the ruler of media companies’ fortunes.

This article by Ben Elowitz (@elowitz) is an exclusive selection from his Media Success newsletter for digital media leaders. Elowitz is the co-founder and CEO of next-generation media company Wetpaint and the author of the Digital Quarters blog about the future of digital media. Prior to Wetpaint, Elowitz co-founded Blue Nile (NILE).

That’s the scenario Barclays analyst Anthony DiClemente sketches out in a new note. He figures that Apple could certainly come up with a cool piece of hardware — he imagines one that looks like a “large-scale iPad” — that would tie together the Internet with Apple’s existing suite of iOS apps and services.

But DiClemente doesn’t think Cook will be able to break open the traditional cable TV bundle. Which means that if you watch TV on Apple TV, it’s going to look a lot like the TV you’re already watching now. And it will cost the same to get that stuff to your set.

DiClemente is a media analyst, not a hardware guy, and his report focuses primarily on the reasons it will be so hard for Apple — or anyone — to truly disrupt the TV programming/distribution business. But here’s some of his speculation about the box, which is similar to other industry guesses:

• He doesn’t think it’s coming in 2012.
• He thinks it will use Apple’s Siri voice control as a “groundbreaking interface.”
• He imagines it could sell for $1,500.
• He thinks it could be “so much more than a TV — including gaming, video communication, content delivery, apps, computing and all the capabilities of the current Apple TV.”

All good, so far. But again, the problem will be when it comes to the TV programming part.

DiClemente argues, convincingly, that TV programmers don’t have any incentive to stop selling the bundles they’re already selling for big dollars (in seven- and 10-year deals).

The “affiliate fees” that cable providers pay for the bundles are now up to $30 billion a year, or about $30 per subscriber per month. And programmers aren’t going to do anything that weakens that revenue stream.

So whether Apple ends up working with the cable providers like Comcast and strikes deals that use Apple TVs in lieu of a cable box, or whether Apple works with the cable programmers like Viacom and uses Apple TVs for a cable-free “over the top” service, the result would be the same: Consumers would have to pay a big monthly fee for a big package of TV channels, most of which they wouldn’t use.

Another possibility: Over time, Apple simply builds an Apple TV set right in front of us, in bits and pieces — so slowly that we don’t really notice it.

Take the remote, for instance. PatentlyApple has its hands on an Apple application for an “advanced TV remote” that would offer some cool features. Like the ability to automatically scan your other devices and figure out the right code to control them, instead of requiring users to use a combination of manuals and trial and error.

At least as important is that, while Apple’s patent, filed back in 2010, could be a standalone device, the application makes it seem much more likely that users will use their iPhones, iPods or iPads to control their TVs.

Which makes sense, because Apple is already offering a “Remote” iOS app that handles some basic functions for its existing Apple TV. That is: There’s a good chance you’re just a download away from owning a bona-fide Apple TV remote already.

This kind of incremental building may be even more important on the content side, which is the real key to an Apple TV: If it’s simply a very nice screen that offers the same content choices that TV viewers already have, then it’s just a very nice screen. And for years, Apple has been making attempts to wrangle different TV choices, at different price points, without much success.

But instead of one grand, sweeping video package, Apple may end up just cobbling together an array of offerings, piece by piece.

To wit: The latest refresh of Apple TV didn’t offer any new content, but it did make it easier for Apple users to buy the content that’s already there. Anyone with an iTunes account can subscribe to Netflix, and soon, Major League Baseball’s MLB.TV service, directly from Apple, without having to pull out a credit card again.

Netflix + iTunes + baseball games won’t make up a full suite of programming choices for most people. But now that Reed Hastings and Bob Bowman have agreed to let Tim Cook handle their billing for them, more media moguls will likely follow in their footsteps. Get enough of them in there, and you could end up with something really compelling.

That’s the first time Netflix has handed off its customer billing to a third party. And it’s a significant step for Reed Hastings and company.

For starters, it will make it that much easier for Netflix to sign up more users. But it also sets up a model for a possible Netflix-cable provider deal.

Reuters reported yesterday that Hastings was looking to bundle his service with pay-TV operators, and to deliver movies and TV shows through cable providers’ set-top boxes. But people familiar with his thinking tell me the Apple TV model is a more plausible tie-up: Netflix would be happy to let cable operators take care of billing, but wants to send its video over the Web, just like it always has.

That assumes that the cable guys buy the argument Hastings has been making for some time — that his service isn’t for cord-cutters, but for people who like watching lots of video, and don’t mind paying another $8 for what is essentially another cable channel.

How much would Netflix be willing to pay to let a third party market its service and take on billing duties as well? I don’t know.

But I have a hunch that that it’s less than the 30 percent per month that Apple has previously required from subscription services that want to let users sign up via its iOS devices.

One hint: Though you’ll now be able to sign up for Netflix using Apple TV, you still won’t be able to do that with Apple’s iPhones, iPads and iPods. Those devices will still require you to sign up somewhere else before you can stream video on their screens.

Worth noting that Netflix isn’t the only outside service handing over billing to Apple. Major League Baseball is doing the same thing with its app, and presumably we’ll see more down the line. Curious to see if Hulu Plus joins in.

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The new device will support video in 1080p, and Apple will now allow users to re-download movies they’ve already purchased from iTunes, like they’ve already been able to do with TV shows, via Apple’s iCloud service. No details yet on whether this means all movies from all studios. If I had to bet, I’d guess that some studios may not participate, but I’ll ask around.

Update: A studio executive tells me that Apple does not have all six of the major studios on board. And here’s confirmation from a source with first-hand knowledge: News Corp.’s Fox and Comcast’s Universal aren’t in, because they have preexisting deals with Time Warner’s HBO that give the pay-TV service exclusive “windows.” (News Corp. also owns this Web site.)

That means that if you bought, say, “Rise of the Planet of the Apes” from iTunes earlier this year, you won’t be able to re-watch it on Apple TV.

But that should get sorted out eventually, says HBO spokesman Jeff Cusson. “With every technological enhancement, we have always been able to find common ground with our studio partners, and we’re sure that will be the result here.”

The price for the device remains the same: $99. The upgraded boxes will be available next week, says Apple CEO Tim Cook.

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“Apple has its feet firmly planted in the post-PC future,” Cook said. “It plays to our strengths; it’s what we love to do.”

What other numbers did the company formerly known as “Apple Computer” (it changed its name in 2007) offer?

• 362 Apple stores
• 315 million iOS devices sold through last year, including 62 million in the last quarter
• 585,000 apps created
• 25 billion app downloads
• 1080p movies and TV shows for iCloud and the new Apple TV
• 15.4 million iPads sold in the fourth quarter of 2011
• 200,000+ iPad apps
• 2048 by 1536 pixels displayed on the new iPad, with 264 pixels per inch
• 44% greater color saturation than old iPad
• 5 megapixel sensor on the new iPad camera
• A maximum of 73 mbps downlink with 4G LTE on new iPad
• New iPad specs: 10 hours of battery life, 9 hours with 4G; 9.4 millimeters thick, 1.4 pounds
• Same pricing as last iPad: Wi-Fi models are $499 for 16 GB, $599 for 32GB, $699 for 64GB; $629, $729 and $829 if you want 4G
• Old iPad now starts at $399 and $529

One number Apple didn’t give out? A version number, as is customary, for its latest product. It’s just called “the new iPad.” (Thanks, davebarnes!)

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The satellite trucks are parked, the signs have gone up and the pundits have placed their bets.

Everyone seems to think they know what Apple has in store at its event on Wednesday: Namely, a higher-resolution iPad and, perhaps, a revamped Apple TV.

But it’s Apple, so you can never be too sure that there won’t be a surprise.

Whatever the company has to say, AllThingsD will be on hand to give live coverage and analysis. Check back here, starting just ahead of the event at 10 am PT.

9:35 am: We are being let in now.

9:54 am: Okay, took us a bit to get set up, but we are online and with a backup system in place, as well.

9:57 am: Tim Cook has taken the stage and offered up his “good morning,” to applause.

He promises he has a great morning planned. “I want to get started by talking about the post-PC revolution. … It is happening all around us, and at an amazing pace.” And, of course, he says Apple is leading.

9:59 am: Such devices have to be way easier than any PC has ever been.

We have three blockbuster post-PC devices, Cook says: The iPod, the iPhone and the iPad.

“Any company would be thrilled to have just one of these devices,” he said. Apple has all three. It sold 172 million post-PC devices, accounting for 76 percent of the company’s revenue, he said.

“Apple has its feet firmly planted in the post-PC future,” he said.

10:02 am: Stores are important because these devices are new to many people, Cook said, showing pictures of the company’s newest store, in Amsterdam, which marked its 362nd outlet.

Some 110 million people visited a retail store last quarter, Cook said.

10:04 am: Cue video of Apple’s new Grand Central Terminal store.

10:04 am: Another key element of our post-PC success is iOS, Cook says, showing an iPhone, iPod touch and iPad, with 315 million such devices sold through last year, including 62 million last quarter alone.

Now he’s talking about Siri and playing some clips of Siri from other parts of the world, such as Australia and France.

“Siri is your best friend, your intelligent personal assistant who gets things done just by asking,” he said. “Our customers tell us that they love it.”

In France, by the way, Siri is a guy.

Today we are bringing Siri to Japan, Cook announces.

10:07 am: Siri in Japan is part of iOS 5.1, an update being made available today.

10:08 am: More stats:

There are now 585,000 apps in the app store, which Apple announced on Monday has crossed 25 billion downloads (free and paid).

10:09 am: Talk has shifted to iCloud, which will now support movies in addition to music and TV shows. You can re-download movies you have purchased, and movies and TV shows will now be available in 1080p.

New Apple TV will now support 1080p. “I’ve been using one of these; the (quality) is off the charts.”

10:11 am: Eddy Cue comes out to demo the new Apple TV.

10:12 am: Tweaked interface. Also easier to get to third-party content, Cue said. Photo Stream also shows up automatically on new Apple TV, and in 1080p.

10:15 am: New Apple TV remains $99 and goes on sale next week, though you can order now.

“That brings us to iPad,” Cook said. “We think the iPad is the poster child of the post-PC (era).”

10:16 am: The set-up for the new iPad is classic Apple — momentum stats, glowing reviews, etc.

10:17 am: Goal of the iPad was to be the best device for some of the tasks people do every day, such as Web browsing and checking email.

“This is a tall order,” he said.

But, he said, Apple’s research seems to bear this out. Many iPad owners who have a PC and smartphone said iPad was their favorite Web browsing and email device. The iPad also won out over e-readers for book reading, and against game consoles and handheld game players for gaming, Cook said.

10:19 am: Cook notes that more than 100 tablets came to market last year, but they don’t offer the experience of the iPad. He shows Twitter running on a Samsung tablet, saying it is more like a blown-up phone application experience, while on the iPad it is a totally different experience.

Same thing with Yelp, he said.

“This is a key reason why momentum on iPad continues to build and the competitive tablets aren’t gaining traction,” Cook said.

Everyone keeps wondering who will come out with a product better than iPad 2.

“Stop wondering,” Cook said. “We are.”

A screen of new iPad shows in background. “It is amazing,” he said. “We are redefining the category that Apple created.”

10:22 am: Marketing chief Phil Schiller on stage to show off the new iPad.

10:23 am: First new feature is the Retina display, as expected. “Until you see it, you can’t understand how amazing this is,” Schiller said.

10:23 am: The giant wall display behind him, Schiller said, actually has fewer pixels than the new iPad.

The new iPad has 31 million pixels, with resolution of 2048 by 1536 pixels. That’s one million more pixels than an HD TV, Schiller said, and 264 pixels per inch.

“That is enough to call it a Retina display,” Schiller said. The iPhone has it when held at 10 inches from the face. The same is true of the new iPad, when held at 15 inches away or even somewhat closer.

10:27 am: The new iPad is powered by an A5X chip, with quad-core graphics needed for new high-resolution display. Apple says the older A5 chip had twice as much graphics power as Nvidia’s Tegra 3, while new A5X has four times the graphics power — again, according to Apple. “This is the best mobile display that has ever shipped,” he said.

10:28 am: New iPad has 5 megapixel camera with technology brought over from the iPhone 4S.

Schiller shows off some of the photos taken with the new iPad.

10:29 am: For more on the new iPad, check out this post from colleague Peter Kafka.

10:30 am: The iPad now has 1080p video recording, Schiller said.

10:31 am: The new camera also has image stabilization, Schiller said, showing a demo of that.

10:31 am: The new iPad also has voice dictation, thanks to a microphone button on the iPad’s virtual keyboard.

It supports U.S., British, and Australian English, along with French, German and Japanese.

10:33 am: New iPad will also support next-generation 4G LTE networks, such as the ones from Verizon and AT&T.

It will also support two other faster network technologies — HSPA+ and dual-channel HSDPA. That’s important, because LTE is rolling out slower globally than it is here in the U.S.

10:35 am: And we’re getting a demo of the real-world difference such high-speed networks can make when doing things like playing streaming video.

10:36 am: Working with AT&T and Verizon in the U.S., and Rogers, Telus and Bell in Canada on LTE, with other high-speed network support elsewhere in the world.

10:36 am: In the U.S., there will be two versions of iPad with LTE — one for AT&T’s LTE network, and the other for Verizon’s LTE network, because the two use different bands. It also can act as a hotspot, and can roam onto 3G networks worldwide.

10:37 am: Schiller in sales mode, recapping key new features.

He notes that a lot of these things sound like they would eat up a lot of batteries.

The iPad 2 boasted 10 hours for regular use and nine hours for 3G data use. And the new iPad has the same battery life.

10:39 am: It’s 9.4 millimeters thick and 1.4 pounds.

The new iPad will start, as the iPad 2 did, at $499 for 16 gigabytes, with $100 more for 32GB, and $200 more for 64GB. 4G wireless models cost an extra $130.

This is all the same as with iPad 2.

New iPad available March 16, with preorders starting today.

10:41 am: Schiller is talking about how software looks on the new display. Some stuff happens automatically, such as text size. But if developers do some work on their own, they can more fully take advantage of the new chip and display.

10:42 am: Schiller said they asked a few companies to try out the technology for a week and see what they could do. First demo is from Namco, a game designer known for Pac-Man and other titles.

They show a glimpse of a new flight-simulation game. The new iPad helps make the game more immersive, the company said, making it easier to lose yourself in the game with things like heat haze coming off of the plane’s engine.

Nice fly-by of the Golden Gate Bridge, too.

Game is Sky Gamblers: Air Supremacy, Namco said, which comes out later this month.

10:45 am: Next app demo is from Autocad creator Autodesk.

The company already has a line of programs, including SketchBook, for iOS.

Program being demoed is a new title, SketchBook Ink, a drawing app for line art.

10:47 am: Meanwhile, here are some of the things we are waiting to hear about: What will the data plan pricing be for new iPads? Will Sprint have an iPad to sell?

SketchBook Ink will be available in April, Autodesk said.

10:49 am: Third and final app demo from Epic Games, with president Mike Capps onstage.

It’s the latest version of the Infinity Blade saga: Dungeons.

The gamers in the crowd seem happy.

10:54 am: Apple’s productivity software, iWork, is being updated for the new iPad. So is iLife, with GarageBand players now able to jam with one another.

10:56 am: The iWork apps are available today in the App Store, for $9.99 apiece for new buyers. GarageBand remains $4.99 for new buyers, and both are free updates for those who have already bought them.

10:57 am: The iMovie app for iPad is also getting an update, including some new features, such as creating a faux movie trailer (or a real one, I suppose).

11:00 am: Apple is also bringing the third iLife app, iPhoto, to iPad. The iPhoto app joins the camera and photo library apps, Schiller said, for those who want to do more with their photos.

Among features are multitouch editing, professional quality effects, brushes, etc. Photos can be beamed among iOS devices. New way to share photos with friends — photo journals using iCloud.

11:03 am: Colleague Peter Kafka notes that while iTunes will now support re-downloading purchased movies, not all studios are behind the feature, so it will work with some flicks, but not others.

11:06 am: Apple demoing how multitouch can make photo editing more intuitive, such as changing the shadow or saturation in one part of a photo.

11:08 am: There are finger-powered brushes for doing all kinds of things, such as lightening a dark face in an otherwise well-exposed photo.

All the editing tools are nondestructive, meaning you can go back to the original.

There are a bunch of different effects, too, from different monochrome options to artsy and vintage ones.

Photo Journal creates a layout of photos, with those favorited or with a caption made larger. It looks a bit like how Facebook’s Timeline handles photos from an album.

You can throw in a map of the location, a date based on when photo was taken, even a weather icon that will use historical weather data to show what the temperature was like.

The resulting “journal” can then be stored on iCloud and shared as a Web link.

The new iPhoto works on both iPhone and iPad.

It will be $4.99 on App Store, starting today, Schiller said.

“We’ve now brought all of iLife to the iPad,” Schiller said. “Don’t let anyone ever tell you you can’t create on an iPad.”

11:14 am: And, cue video for new iPad.

11:14 am: So far, it’s just being called “the new iPad,” not iPad 3, iPad HD, or other names thrown about in recent days.

11:17 am: My recap:

Here’s what they’ve announced

New iPad with higher-res display, A5X processor, LTE support, improved 5 megapixel camera and 1080p recording. Same models and prices as iPad 2 was priced at. Separate LTE versions for AT&T and Verizon.

Apple TV with support for 1080p at $99.

And iPhoto for iOS, $4.99, starting today. Other iLife and iWork apps updated.

Apple also keeping iPad 2 in the lineup, starting at $399 for 16GB model, a $100 price chop.

11:21 am: Consensus seems to have nailed things pretty well, so far.

Cook now showing Apple’s TV ad for new iPad.

11:22 am: Cook, as Jobs did before him, wraps up by thanking Apple staff.

Again repeats his phrasing that leading Apple is the “privilege of a lifetime.”

Cook ends with a tantalizing tease.

“Across the year, you are going to see a lot more of this kind of innovation. We are just getting started,” he said.

11:23 am: And he exits, stage right.

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Latest example: It appears that the pay-TV guys actually increased their subscriber totals last quarter. Not by much — something like 240,000 new accounts, which translates into a growth rate of 0.2 percent — but an increase is an increase.

Chart via Bernstein Research (click to enlarge):

So what do you want to make of that? Not much, probably — just like the subscriber declines we’ve seen in previous quarters haven’t meant that much. If we saw a sustained move in one direction or another, that would be meaningful, but for now it’s more or less a flat line.

On another level, however, I understand the motivation. When it comes to delivering audio-visual content to a wide audience, the Internet has lowered the barriers to entry so far that anyone with even the dinkiest camera can become a major broadcaster. The television industry may face a crisis of overhead when a large number of scrappy upstarts deliver comparable value with almost no fixed costs. Also, there are some aspects of the television business that the Internet simply does better, specifically when it comes to reaching an audience.

So there is the scent of blood in the water, and out of the resulting frenzy a few lessons have appeared. Here are four of them.

There doesn’t have to be a difference between a “channel” and a “show.”

You probably have a clear understanding about what a television channel is. Comedy Central is a channel. Your local CBS affiliate is a channel. A channel is the thing you tune in to at a specific time to watch a particular show. A channel runs a lot of shows on it. Time Warner Cable offers 900 channels. This seems like too many. Bruce Springsteen wrote “57 channels and nothing on.” That sounds so quaint now.

But if you have a conversation about YouTube channels with this concept of a “channel” in your head you may experience some cognitive dissonance. There are “tens of millions” of channels on YouTube. One company, Machinima, operates 3,380 of them. That’s literally 100 times as many channels as are owned by NBC Universal, and it’s not enough. YouTube just launched 100 more channels with premium content. YouTube must be using the word “channel” differently. Except they’re not.

Both a YouTube channel and a television channel deliver a stream of content from a transmitting device to a receiving one. Viewers tune in to a television channel by selecting its number; they reach a YouTube channel via its URL. The main difference is that the cost of creating a television channel from scratch is incredibly high, while on YouTube it’s pretty close to zero. Unlike television, a YouTube channel can turn a profit with very little programming. The comedian Ray William Johnson, for example, has one of the most lucrative channels on YouTube. It plays one show. That show adds 12 minutes of new programming per week.

If a channel online costs next to nothing, and you can build one around a single show, then why do television shows need television channels at all? Every once in a while there’s a lot of fuss about getting cable channels à la carte. But who cares about that when you can have à la carte programming?

I like to think about this in the context of “The Daily Show.” On cable, you’re limited to 30 minutes of “The Daily Show” per day, and you have to tune in at 11 pm or set your DVR to watch it. There could easily just be a “Daily Show” channel, with all the extra programming that Comedy Central now reserves for the Web site, plus spinoffs for the various “Daily Show” correspondents. More content means more places to sell advertising, which means more profit. One challenge, of course, would be getting the audience to modify its behavior, but new technology seems to be inspiring this already.

Programming can now be delivered to your television set through a remote control.

Let’s define “remote control” as a handheld piece of electronics that tells your television set what to do while you’re sitting on the couch. Smartphones and tablets fit into this category, and before you argue that this definition is too broad, I submit that an iPhone is no less a remote control than it is a camera. It commands your television set far more profoundly than your traditional remote control. At least, if you have an Apple TV. Which you should.

The Apple TV comes with a technology called AirPlay, which allows you to throw videos wirelessly from your phone or tablet to your television set. Got a movie sitting in iTunes on your computer? You can watch it on TV via AirPlay. Find a video you want to watch embedded on a Web site you read? If AirPlay is available, a little button will pop up and you can stream the video to your TV. Need some good recommendations? Try one of the many “discovery” apps out there, like Shelby.tv or ShowYou or VHX. They skim your Twitter and Facebook feeds looking for videos your friends have posted. And you can throw those to your TV.

There are apps for ESPN and Discovery Channel and PBS and other traditional channels that allow you watch their shows, on demand, on your TV, via AirPlay. There are also a growing number of apps for channels that have never been included in a traditional cable provider’s lineup. The Wall Street Journal’s news channel, WSJ Live, is one of them. Time Warner Cable doesn’t carry it, but my iPad does.

I should note that WSJ Live is also available in the main Apple TV library, so you don’t actually need to use AirPlay to watch it. But the fact that you can illustrates my point. The remote control has become a very personal device, one that you carry around with you all day long, one that you use to store and index your favorite media. A viewer is just as likely to watch a channel she’s added to her home screen as anything available in the cable menu. The programming of her choice routes through her remote control.

Marketing and distribution are often the same thing.

Last month, IFC released the entire first episode of the second season of “Portlandia” online a week before its airdate. They used an embeddable video player, so that any online publication could feature the episode on its Web site. Individual sketches from the show were also made available in the same way. IFC didn’t just tease the show or talk it up, they let people actually see it for themselves. The result was an 81 percent increase in viewership among 18-49 year olds when the show returned to the network.

There are few examples of this sort of thing happening before the Internet. A movie poster hanging in a theater where that movie is playing, perhaps, or a DVD insert in a magazine ad. But this is something the Internet does really well. A single sentence can promote a film and deliver it to your computer at the same time. Allow me to demonstrate: “This video is amazing.”

That, of course, is the lifeblood of online publishing. Here’s something that resonated with me, I’m recommending it to you, my audience. They call it “curating” now. Somehow that word got separated from “blogging” recently, and I’m not entirely sure how or why. I think Tumblr and Pinterest had something to do with it. But curating, which is a thing bloggers do, is a distinct talent. It’s highly respected in other manifestations, such as museum curators or fashion buyers or television programmers. It was curators who spread that “Portlandia” preview around. And when you factor in the marketing power they brought to that show, and you consider how much a network pays to advertise a program in general, there’s only one conclusion to draw. Online curators are the most undervalued talent in the television industry.

A few of those new YouTube channels seem to recognize the power of the curatorial voice. Vice, Pitchfork, SB Nation and the Bleacher Report all received funding to create new YouTube programming. Presumably their editors will create shows that they’d want to watch themselves, and with that level of personal investment, they’d vouch for those shows to their readers.

Television is no longer that different from publishing.

Just last week, the Gawker Media site Kotaku announced a programming schedule similar to that of a television network. This strategy was conceived well over a year ago, and is designed to sell audience size to advertisers, the way television does, rather than pageviews, which have been dropping in value for years.

This is only the latest example of conceptual overlap. Video embedding took off after the launch of YouTube, turning online publications into versions of The Daily Prophet, that newspaper from Harry Potter with the magical moving pictures on the front page. Some Internet video hosting and streaming services are built on content management systems designed for online publishing. When you upload a video to Blip, the last thing you click to make it go live is “publish.” Awl Music, the music video channel launched by The Awl in January, is run entirely on Tumblr. You can watch it on a television set connected to Google TV.

Both traditional and online publishers are producing original video series with increasing frequency. Reuters, Slate and The Wall Street Journal all have news and documentary programming on the new YouTube channel lineup. The New York Times and New York Magazine have been doing their own video programming for years. It’s only a matter of time before some of these compete with the cable news channels.

Eric Spiegelman produces the Web series “Old Jews Telling Jokes,” which is about to launch its fifth season. He helped bring the hit Japanese television show “Retro Game Master” to Kotaku.com, and he helped launch AwlMusic.tv in partnership with TheAwl.com.

For those of us that use it, we’ve always felt that there’s something there. If we keep following our intuition and pull that string, it could be larger.

– Apple CEO Tim Cook on the future of Apple TV

Apple is on a tear after a monster quarter, the best in its 35-year history, and many believe it’s headed into one of its strongest product cycles ever, a stretch that will see a next-generation iPad in March, and a new iPhone and long-rumored Apple Television before the end of the year.

But it was a more troubling topic that he wanted to address first: Concerns about working conditions at its suppliers.

“The first thing that I want everyone to know — Apple takes working conditions very, very seriously,” he said. “And we have for a very long time. We care about every worker. I’ve spent a lot of time in factories personally and not just as an executive. I worked at a paper mill in Alabama and an aluminum plant in Virginia. So we are closely connected to the production process and we understand these manufacturing issues on a very granular level. We believe that every worker has a right to a fair and safe work environment … and Apple’s manufacturing partners must live up to this to do business with us.”

“No one in our industry is doing more to improve working conditions than Apple,” he continued. “We are constantly auditing facilities, going deep into the supply chain, looking for problems, finding problems, and more importantly fixing them. And we report everything because we believe that transparency is so very important in this area. I am so incredibly proud of the work our teams are doing in this area. They focus on the most difficult problems, and they stay with them until they fix them. They are truly a model for the industry.

“We think that the use of underage labor is abhorrent — it’s extremely rare in our supply chain, but our top priority is to eliminate it. If we find a supplier that intentionally hires underage labor, that’s a firing offense.”

“As you may have read,” Cook said, “the Fair Labor Association is doing an audit of our manufacturing partners. This audit is the most detailed in history of mass manufacturing in scale, scope and transparency, and I am looking forward to the results.”

And now, if you live in New York City, you can pay Aereo to send it to your laptop or phone for $12 a month.

Aereo debuted today with a press conference, where reporters had lots of questions about the mechanics of the service (which are really interesting, and involve an array of thousands of dime-sized antennas, per the images below) and its legality (also interesting, and also dependent on the idea of each antenna “belonging” to an individual subscriber).

But the core question is why someone would use the service: Assuming it works as advertised, would you use it to supplement your existing TV service, or use it to replace some of the TV you’re already paying for?

The former, for now. And maybe, down the road, you could do the latter.

Today, Aereo makes the most sense as an add-on for TV super-consumers — the ones who have digital cable and HBO and Netflix and Apple TV and want to watch even more stuff on more screens.

Since it’s only delivering broadcast TV, Aereo won’t let you get lots of shows you like. But it will let you get a lot of shows you do like, and it will let you access them in new ways.

For instance: For various odd reasons, the broadcasters haven’t been able to figure out how to serve those people live TV on the go, to their iPads and iPhones, and Aereo will do that.

But Aereo’s ambition is much bigger. IAC CEO Barry Diller, who led a $20 million funding round, says Aereo will eventually be a “wedge” that will force the TV industry to give up the bundle: The idea is that eventually you’ll start by paying Aereo $12 a month for a bunch of TV, and add a series of channels and programs that you like on top of that. In theory, you’ll still end up paying much less than you do now.

CEO Chet Kanojia is slightly more diplomatic: “It’s going to start the process of putting the thought in people’s mind that says ‘I have other options.’”

Alternate scenario: If Aereo isn’t shut down by a legal challenge, it will act as a loud starting gun in the ear of cable TV providers and broadcast networks, prompting them to get their act together.

There’s no reason that, say, a Comcast cable subscriber shouldn’t be able to watch NBC or any other channel they get on their TV, live, on the go, on their iPad. And if Aereo finally convinces the cable and TV guys to make that happen, that will be good for consumers. But maybe not so good for Aereo.

But if you bet against the cable and TV guys getting their act together, you might get very good odds.

Kanojia sat down with me after his press conference to explain what he’s up to. He’s soft-spoken and the IAC lobby was loud, so you may have to turn this up a bit.

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20120214/why-would-you-pay-12-a-month-for-free-tv-aereo-ceo-chet-kanojia-explains/feed/ 0 http://allthingsd.com/20120125/apple-to-exxon-try-to-keep-up-will-ya/ http://allthingsd.com/20120125/apple-to-exxon-try-to-keep-up-will-ya/#comments Wed, 25 Jan 2012 16:06:20 +0000 John Paczkowski http://allthingsd.com/?p=167398 Shares of Apple are on a tear today, following the company’s monster results for its first fiscal quarter, one which saw earnings more than double on surging demand for the iPhone and iPad. Apple’s stock spiked more than 7 percent after the opening bell, passing $450 and attaining a market cap of almost $419 billion — more than Exxon’s $413 billion, and the largest of any U.S. company.

But how long can Apple hold that title? The company first surpassed Exxon in market cap last August, but the oil juggernaut reclaimed the top spot before the day’s end. It’s entirely possible that will happen once again today. But as a flurry of analysts suggest — many are raising their price targets on Apple to $600 or more — Cupertino might hold on to that title for a bit longer this time, particularly if it’s got enough good hardware in the pipeline to keep its earnings big.

“We believe Apple’s new product portfolio remains incredibly strong,” Deutsche Bank’s Chris Whitmore said in a research note today. “Specifically, we expect iPad 3 in C1Q12 followed by an iPhone 5 refresh in the Fall. In addition, we expect Macs with Ivy Bridge should support incremental share gains and Apple TV appears set to graduate from an ‘Apple hobby’ later this year. We anticipate an iOS device with Siri user interface and iCloud synching has the potential to redefine the smart TV category in the same way iPhone and iPad impacted the smartphone and tablet markets, respectively. Meanwhile, we expect iPad 3 to enter the tablet market as most competitors are refocusing their efforts on Windows 8 tablets.”

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20120125/apple-to-exxon-try-to-keep-up-will-ya/feed/ 0 http://allthingsd.com/20120102/not-the-ipad-3-or-new-apple-tv-but-apple-planning-media-related-event-in-the-bigger-apple-this-month/ http://allthingsd.com/20120102/not-the-ipad-3-or-new-apple-tv-but-apple-planning-media-related-event-in-the-bigger-apple-this-month/#comments Mon, 02 Jan 2012 21:07:34 +0000 Kara Swisher http://allthingsd.com/?p=158942

According to sources close to the situation, Apple is planning an important — but not large-scale — event to be held in New York at the end of this month that will focus on a media-related announcement.

Per the usual caveat, the tech giant is well known for moving around their public show-and-tells, so this could certainly change at any moment.

But, for sure, several sources underscored that the event is not related to an upcoming version of the iPad 3, the next iteration of the popular tablet device that many expect to be available in 2012.

Also unlikely, the rollout of Apple’s large-scale rethinking of the interactive television initiative that it has been working on. While the company is expected to launch a new Apple TV product later in 2012, such an event would almost certainly be held in the heart of the industry in Hollywood or at least in Silicon Valley.

That leaves some kind of advertising or even publishing announcement, which might be the case, since Apple SVP of Internet Software and Services Eddy Cue is reportedly involved.

Cue is in charge of a large swath of Apple’s media units, including the iTunes Store, App Store, iBookstore, as well as iAd and its iCloud services.

It’s well known in the ad industry that Apple has been searching for a new head of its mobile advertising unit, since Andy Miller left last summer.

But such an appointment has not been made as yet, said sources.

The last time Cue was in New York for an event, by the way, was nearly a year ago, when Apple helped launch News Corp.’s online magazine, The Daily.

And Apple also recently opened a splashy new retail store in Manhattan’s Grand Central Terminal, and has been refurbishing its flagship glass cube on Fifth Avenue, too.

The holiday-having Apple PR team declined comment, but wished me a “happy, happy new year.”

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20120102/not-the-ipad-3-or-new-apple-tv-but-apple-planning-media-related-event-in-the-bigger-apple-this-month/feed/ 0 http://allthingsd.com/20111226/boxee-to-release-last-software-update-for-pcs/ http://allthingsd.com/20111226/boxee-to-release-last-software-update-for-pcs/#comments Tue, 27 Dec 2011 00:32:50 +0000 Lauren Goode http://allthingsd.com/?p=157097 Boxee, creator of the Boxee Box, a D-Link device that streams live video to your television set, is getting ready to deploy updated software for PCs and Boxee Box devices.

An expected software update on a slow day at the end of December is hardly big breaking news. But for start-up company Boxee, it signals a shift away from its software for PC browsers and a focus on Internet-connected TVs: The company says version 1.5 of the software will be its last Boxee update for PCs, Ubuntu and Mac computers.

It will be launched along with a Live TV dongle for the Boxee Box later in January.

Version 1.5 of the downloadable software on the Web will include better file support, a new onscreen display, search functionality, HTML5 WebKit-based browser, and will support multiple languages. It will run on Windows XP, Windows Vista, Windows 7 (32 bit and 64 bit), Mac OS X 10.6 and higher, Linux Ubuntu 11.10, and will be available on Boxee.tv through the end of January.

And for those who would rather develop their own software for Boxee: The company is also releasing an open source version of its software.

The update won’t, however, offer PC users access to the same apps that are available on the Box, such as Netflix, Pandora and VUDU.

Boxee first launched in January 2010 as a Web application for watching Internet video online. In November 2010, it launched its awaited Boxee Box device, which came with a nifty Qwerty-style remote and offered a variety of apps — but it launched amid a growing market of Internet-connected TV boxes, including Apple TV, Google TV, Microsoft’s Xbox and the competitively-priced Roku box. At the time of the Boxee’s hardware launch, about 1.5 million people were using the Boxee software.

Boxee explained its shift away from Web software by saying it believes the future of TV will be driven by Internet-connected boxes, connected TVs and second screen devices like tablets. “While there are still many users who have computers connected to their TVs, we believe this use case is likely to decline as users find better alternatives,” Boxee wrote.

The company also said that the lack of premium apps on the downloadable version of Boxee was due to extensive DRM and certification requirements.

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20111226/boxee-to-release-last-software-update-for-pcs/feed/ 1 http://allthingsd.com/20111221/year-of-the-talking-phone-and-a-cloud-that-got-hot/ http://allthingsd.com/20111221/year-of-the-talking-phone-and-a-cloud-that-got-hot/#comments Thu, 22 Dec 2011 02:04:22 +0000 Walter S. Mossberg http://allthingsd.com/?p=156106 While other industries struggled, consumer technology seemed to march ahead as always in 2011, with important new products and services continuing to roll out. Sure, some tech companies, like BlackBerry maker Research In Motion, suffered reverses. And some products, like Hewlett-Packard’s TouchPad, flopped. But many shone.

So here is a look at a few of the biggest tech products of the past year, with some analysis of what they signified and what issues they raise for 2012. As with all my columns, this one is focused only on products and services provided to consumers. Also, as usual, this column isn’t meant to offer investment advice or to evaluate the management skills or financial condition of companies.

The iDevices

Siri, right, the voice-controlled artificial-intelligence system, made the iPhone 4S stand out even though it looked like its predecessor.

Even in a year when its iconic leader, Steve Jobs, resigned as CEO and then passed away, Apple kept going from success to success. In March, it introduced the iPad 2, a thinner, lighter, faster version of its groundbreaking tablet and sold tens of millions of them. In October, it brought out the iPhone 4S, which proved popular even though it looked identical to the prior model. One reason: The phone introduced a voice-controlled artificial-intelligence system called Siri that answers questions and performs tasks without requiring typing or searching. Siri, while still rudimentary, could herald a revolution in practical artificial intelligence for consumers.

The lesson here is that Apple is driving the industry toward simpler, more reliable digital experiences tied into ecosystems of content and cloud services. It is expected to bring out radically new iPhones and iPads in 2012. But can it fend off challenges from popular, rapidly improving rivals using Google’s Android operating system? And, in the absence of Mr. Jobs, can it keep churning out game-changing hits?

With its ultralow price and Amazon connection, the Kindle Fire may be the first tablet to gain significant traction against the iPad.

The Kindle Fire

Despite some initial software flaws and its chunky, plain hardware, the diminutive Fire appeared to be the first color tablet to gain significant traction against the iPad. The biggest reasons are its ultralow $199 price and its tie-in to Amazon’s huge content library. But the Fire may have started a trend that could be a problem for Google: It demotes the Android operating system to an under-the-covers piece of plumbing, ignoring Google’s user interface and apps marketplace.

In 2012, Amazon is expected to bring out a larger, possibly sleeker Fire, and, if it continues to prove popular, it could attract larger numbers of apps designed for the Fire and sold only through Amazon. But despite its success with simple e-readers, Amazon has little experience as a maker of general-purpose computing devices, and it will have to be nimble and creative to keep up with Apple and more-traditional Android rivals.

LTE

Though several cellular technologies claim the moniker “4G” to indicate fast data speeds and greater capacity, only one, LTE (Long Term Evolution), delivers true broadband speeds consistently. This past year, it finally spread significantly in the U.S., both in terms of geography and in the number of devices supporting it. The LTE leader by far is Verizon Wireless and it has the potential to make the wireless Web, and wireless streaming of video, the equal of their wired counterparts. AT&T is racing to catch up and Sprint, which uses a different 4G system, says it will join the LTE parade.

But at this stage, LTE still consumes too much battery power. And LTE networks, if they become the norm, could get overwhelmed. To fend off this prospect, the biggest carriers in 2011 began charging more for greater data usage, a move that could curb the spread of innovative services that rely on large data downloads, such as video streaming and sharing of music and high-resolution photos.

More companies took advantage of cloud computing, with Google introducing the Chromebook, which relies almost entirely on the cloud.

The Cloud

Many players began offering consumers the opportunity to both store their data on, and run apps from, remote servers on the Internet, a system called cloud computing. Google even introduced a new kind of laptop, the Chromebook, that has almost no internal storage and relies almost entirely on the cloud. An example of a cloud service: music “lockers” that store all your songs on multiple devices. Cloud services are sure to expand in 2012, but questions remain on their reliability, security and privacy. And while most now cost little or nothing, these offerings could become another monthly fee burden for consumers.

Android became easier to use with the release of the Ice Cream Sandwich version, used in the Samsung Galaxy Nexus.

The Android Army

In 2011, Android overtook Apple’s iPhone and iPad operating system, called iOS, in users. Though no single Android device is as popular as the iPhone or iPad, Android is now the collective leader, with hundreds of devices using it. Samsung, in particular, had success with its Android-based Galaxy devices. And a new version, called Ice Cream Sandwich, continued Android’s steady improvement by making it easier to use. However, Google may be losing control of Android, as hardware makers and cellular carriers redefine it to suit their own needs, and fail to offer consumers updates in a timely fashion. Except for the Kindle Fire, the operating system hasn’t caught on in tablets.

Windows

Microsoft has been way behind in the new areas of super-smartphones and tablets. In 2011, the software giant began to try to reverse that situation. It introduced the first competitive version of its sleek, sophisticated Windows Phone software, called Mango, though so far without much uptake by consumers. And it previewed a bold new version of main Windows, called Windows 8, with a multitouch interface that, unlike Apple’s approach, is a single operating system meant for both PCs and tablets. It will start shipping in 2012.

Following in the Apple MacBook Air’s footsteps, a crop of thin and speedy ultrabooks, such as the Toshiba Portege Z835, pictured, became the new standard for laptops, with Windows PC makers coming up with their own versions of the machines.

Still, Windows Phone must somehow attract many more users. And Windows 8 is a gamble, because it includes two interfaces: the new tabletlike face and the old, familiar Windows look, which could confuse consumers.

Ultrabooks

In 2011, Apple’s MacBook Air, previously a niche product, became the new standard for laptops—thin, light, speedy, with long battery life and solid-state memory for storage instead of a hard disk. Now, Windows PC makers are following suit with similar machines called Ultrabooks.

Ultrabooks may recharge the Windows laptop scene in 2012. However, they will have to become less costly—they now hover at around $1,000—and their solid-state drives don’t offer the capacity of hard disks at an affordable price.

The Lenovo IdeaPad U300

Television

The reinvention of television picked up steam in 2011, albeit in a small way. Despite some miscues, Netflix streaming of TV shows to many devices grew in popularity. Set-top boxes that bring Internet video to TVs, like the Roku box and Apple TV, got better and more popular, though Google’s competing effort was a dud. Microsoft’s Xbox is set to compete strongly, using its Kinect add-on to find and play media apps with gestures and voice commands.

The big test may come in 2012, when Apple is believed to plan to ship a whole new type of Internet-connected TV, which the company hasn’t confirmed. A big obstacle: Cable and media companies will have a huge say in this potential revolution, and the current system serves them well.

So, 2011 was an exciting year in consumer technology. I can’t wait for 2012.

Email Walt at mossberg@wsj.com.

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20111221/year-of-the-talking-phone-and-a-cloud-that-got-hot/feed/ 0 http://allthingsd.com/20111220/apple-joins-the-flash-madness-club-with-anobit-deal/ http://allthingsd.com/20111220/apple-joins-the-flash-madness-club-with-anobit-deal/#comments Tue, 20 Dec 2011 19:58:39 +0000 Arik Hesseldahl http://allthingsd.com/?p=155451 Apple appears to have closed its deal for the Israeli flash-memory concern Anobit.

Apple isn’t commenting and is officially treating all this as rumor and speculation (it rarely comments on acquisitions, anyway). But the deal is being reported in Israeli newspapers, and the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu tweeted a welcome message to Apple today, which sure feels like confirmation. So I’ll proceed under the assumption that the reports of this acquisition are true.

Welcome to Israel, Apple Inc. on your 1st acquisition here. I’m certain that you’ll benefit from the fruit of the Israeli knowledge.

December 20, 2011 3:55 am via webReplyRetweetFavorite

@IsraeliPM

The PM of Israel

That makes this a cause for celebration. With the Anobit buy, Apple is now the latest member of the Flash Madness Club, which I created over the summer, in the wake of the Fusion-io IPO and other activities by notable flash-technology companies like Violin Memory, Pure Storage and Qwilt.

So why is Apple willing to throw down a reported half-billion dollars on this company? It’s because flash memory has a fundamental problem: As it ages, its ability to store data wears off. This problem is sometimes compared to the semiconductor equivalent of Alzheimer’s. Individual cells on the flash-memory chip lose their ability to store the individual ones and zeros that make up the pictures and music and other data they may be storing, especially after millions of read-and-write operations — the act of putting data on the chip and then loading it from the chip for use. After a lot of heavy use — this can vary depending on the chip — the chips begin to suffer problems with “endurance.”

As flash starts to show up in data centers and PCs and other places beyond consumer gear like iPhones and iPads, this becomes a more important problem. If your iPad gets old enough to suffer data-endurance problems, it’s a pretty simple matter to replace it. But in the more rigorous world of an enterprise data center, where millions of reads and writes will be done on a chip daily, data endurance is a potentially very expensive problem. In the enterprise, a solid-state drive is considered suitable only if it can stand up to five full-drive write cycles, where the drive is filled to capacity and then erased every day for five years.

Anobit’s solution to these problems involves techniques known as memory-signal processing and the use of some secret-sauce memory-processing error-correction algorithms, plus some management tricks for moving data around a flash chip in more efficient ways, in order to make them last longer.

It’s also the sort of problem that a company like Apple — which is the world’s largest consumer of flash memory, and has been for several years — would want to solve. Think of the many places where Apple uses flash — the iPad, iPhone, iPod, MacBook Air and Apple TV. And those are just the products we know about, so far. Flash can’t help but appear in many more products.

On top of that, flash technology plays a significant role in Apple’s data centers. Fusion-io, the company that builds flash-based insert cards that speed up garden-variety servers, has named Apple as a significant customer, so there’s plenty of flash inside Apple’s facilities in North Carolina. Flash endurance can’t help but be a problem Apple might face with its iCloud service, for example.

Israel has a big connection to the flash industry. SanDisk’s founder, Eli Harari, is Israeli; a few years back SanDisk acquired an Israeli company called Msystems, which, if my memory serves, was the first to popularize what we now call a thumb or keychain drive. So, historically, there have been a lot of useful innovations on flash memory that have come out of that country. Supposedly, the deal calls for Apple to open a research center there, so it will get the benefit of ongoing innovations on flash. Chances are it’s going to need a few.

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20111220/apple-joins-the-flash-madness-club-with-anobit-deal/feed/ 0 http://allthingsd.com/20111208/2012-siri-is-a-stunner-amazon-is-amazin-and-security-gets-spendy/ http://allthingsd.com/20111208/2012-siri-is-a-stunner-amazon-is-amazin-and-security-gets-spendy/#comments Fri, 09 Dec 2011 04:59:40 +0000 Arik Hesseldahl http://allthingsd.com/?p=152034 On Thursday night, I attended a dinner at New York’s Waldorf Astoria Hotel, hosted by Mark Anderson, the CEO of Strategic News Service, a newsletter that many senior tech execs subscribe to. At this annual event, which I missed last year, Anderson makes predictions concerning what he thinks will be the dominant forces shaping the technology world in the coming year. And his predictions are always interesting.

Ahead of the dinner, Anderson stopped by my office to let me have a peek at his 10 predictions, and we talked them over a bit. All 10 are below, along with some comments from Anderson that emerged from our conversation.

Before diving into the predictions, Anderson tells me there is a grand theme that unifies them all: “Integrating everything.”

What does that mean? “It means a whole lot of stuff that needs to be integrated. We don’t need anything new at all. There’s so much work that needs to be done with the existing tool sets. Steve Jobs didn’t really invent anything at all. But he was great at integrating things into a product. There’s a lot more of that work to do. We have to do it in the phone world and the TV world and the health care world. We have lots of devices and lots of chips and lots of operating systems and lots of content. The bigger question is, how do human beings use it all efficiently?”

As an example, he cites the collaboration between Nuance, the speech software company, and IBM, bringing the Watson computer of “Jeopardy” fame into the area of health care. “For the first time, the idea of evidence-based medicine won’t just be in a magazine article,” Anderson says. “A doctor will be able to pick up his phone and describe four symptoms, and find out what the likely diagnosis is, what the indications are. It’s fantastic.”

So here are those 10 predictions, with additional comments from Anderson:

1. TV becomes the new center of gravity in the tech universe. All the other devices find their niches in the TV galaxy. Microsoft’s attempt to integrate Kinect into TV is a strong if qualified success. Smart phone-TV integration software becomes a new category. Pad-TV integration becomes common.

“Apple will hustle to launch the next version of Apple TV, and it will be a roaring success and be seen as Tim Cook’s first great product success. But what it really will be is Steve’s last product.”

2. 2012 will see tectonic shifts in phone markets. “Nokia will fail to come back, which is pretty clear to everyone except the people in Finland.” Samsung, Anderson says, will retain its spot as the new global leader in mobile phones by volume, and will keep this crown despite the debut of Microsoft’s Windows Phone 7.

Meanwhile, Anderson says, Google will lose control over the Android operating system, mainly because unlicensed versions of Android will multiply in type and in installed base, especially in Asian countries. “It’s already a balkanized environment. Now Google loses control of the technology entirely. China is already running an unlicensed version of Android, and I think there will be more of that.”

Finally, the smartphone will finally emerge as the dominant category of wireless phone. “Why would you have anything else? And why would sellers of content and services want you to?” he says. “It doesn’t matter if you’re in a rich country or a poor country. This stuff is cheap.”

3. Clouds are for consumers, and for start-ups. Even as a large number of big companies move pilot projects onto external clouds, it will become clear that the real trend is for enterprise to stay away from clouds in all key areas, for reasons of both security and reliability.

“The cloud guys hate this because they want to sell to enterprises,” Anderson says. “But the security issues are becoming really intense. If you’re a CIO, it’s a terrible environment, and you’re a target, for sure, especially if you’re a company with a lot of intellectual property. I’m not implying that things like SAAS (software as a service) aren’t a big trend. But no one is going to put their valuable IP on the cloud.”

4. Security splits the tech world in two, finally getting attention from CEOs. Companies with real IP start to realize they have to “go big or go home” with their security response, and their spending on protecting their “crown jewels” rises dramatically.

5. Siri stuns the world. Siri, on Apple’s iPhone 4S, has sounded the arrival of Internet personal assistants, and the world will spend this year marveling at what Siri and its rivals can and cannot do — and what they can learn to do.

“I think we’ll see a bunch of these things,” Anderson says. “Siri will get much better. It will learn how you learn. We’ve never seen people have long-term relationships with machines before, but it will be a long-term relationship, and she will remember everything, but make good use of it. She will know you learn better by seeing than hearing, or that it takes three times to tell you something. All those things that you have to program today should be learnable. None of that has been done yet. That creates a real friendship. And I think we’re going to start seeing personal assistants not just for everyday life, but for professions like medicine or car repair. Instead of just having Siri be everything, there will be many Siris for different contexts.”

6. We enter the amazing world of Dave and HAL, as voice recognition comes of age. From hospital to car, mobile to home, Kinect to Siri, exercise to play, work to entertainment, remote control to direct action, from Microsoft to Apple, from Tellme to Nuance — the time has come for computers and humans to talk to each other. With lots of funny stories, big bloopers and amazing breakthroughs, humanity at the end of 2012 will be talking to machines in a normal voice, and it will not seem unusual, nor be the cause of unending frustration.

“The voice-recognition part is almost trivial,” Anderson says. “The important part is context-sensitive understanding. It used to be that all the researchers at Carnegie Mellon used to think that all you needed was more computing horsepower to do better at voice. It turned out that was wrong. It was right for a little while, but the real problem is context. And so, if you can build up that database where you can search it contextually for what to expect, that is where you get all the mileage.”

7. E-readers prosper, but pads continue to dominate what Anderson calls the “carry-along” market. Pads and tablets will come down in price and get closer to prices of e-readers. Meanwhile, Anderson says, Amazon’s Fire will move upmarket and evolve into a full-fledged tablet.

“If you look at the specs on the Fire, it’s a tablet, but it’s hobbled,” Anderson says. “So I think that this is part of the whole strategy: Come in and sell at a low price, and then later unveil a more complete tablet. Apple will stay ahead, though. A lot of people are asking me if Amazon will catch Apple, and the answer is no. The way it’s configured right now, there’s no way the Fire will catch up with the iPad.”

8. The consumption world explodes. Get ready for new devices, new content, new bundles, new connection techniques, new distribution channels, new aggregators, new tablets, new phones, new players, new self-published authors, new garage bands, new consumption models riding on social networks. There is nothing but high energy in the content consumer market. People are now ready to spend subscription money, and the publisher response will be huge. “It’s going to be a huge melee of stuff,” Anderson says. “We’ll invent more stuff to consume, and it will be very hard to figure out who the players are from week to week, and how they’re doing. They may not even know themselves.”

9. Governments and corporations focus on intellectual property as though it were their most prized asset. It is. This new global understanding leads to a reevaluation regarding giving critical IP away for nothing versus protecting it. The age of what Anderson calls “IP naïveté” is over, and the question of proper IP valuation is here.

What is IP naïveté? “When Jeff Immelt stood on the steps of the White House the day after he was named jobs czar, and handed the plans for GE’s most important jet-engine project to Hu Jintao in order to get the permission to be allowed to bid on maybe selling engines to China — that’s IP naïveté,” Anderson says. “Thinking that’s not going to come back and show up for sale in Houston from some Chinese company in about six months is IP naïveté.”

During 2012, he says, companies and countries will start valuing their intellectual property not for its replacement value, but for figures that are magnitudes larger. State-sponsored IP theft will shift from being considered a nuisance and more along the lines of an act of aggression.

10. Amazon gets it all. Between outdoing Wal-Mart online, to beating the booksellers and delivering groceries, and making new inroads in video streaming, Amazon will prove that one company can indeed have it all. Strong Kindle and Fire sales will only be icing on the cake.

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20111208/2012-siri-is-a-stunner-amazon-is-amazin-and-security-gets-spendy/feed/ 0 http://allthingsd.com/20111207/what-if-apple-television-is-an-imac/ http://allthingsd.com/20111207/what-if-apple-television-is-an-imac/#comments Wed, 07 Dec 2011 20:41:32 +0000 John Paczkowski http://allthingsd.com/?p=151553

The Macintosh TV

Here’s a novel theory: The Internet-connected HDTV that Apple is rumored to have in the pipeline will be preceded by another device, which will pave the way for it:

A new iMac with integrated TV functionality.

That’s the latest speculation from Wedge Partners analyst Brian Blair, who believes there will be a step between the Apple TV and the Apple Television.

“We believe Apple’s redesign of the iMac in the first half of 2012 will likely usher in some … TV capability into the iMac offering first, effectively taking the high end and larger screens of the iMac line and pushing it toward the TV market by integrating Apple TV and iCloud features into a slimmer all-in-one PC,” Blair writes. “Apple could effectively start with what they already have on the manufacturing line and slowly push their offering from 27 inches and scale up from there to 32 inches and then move on to the 42, 50 and 55 inch market.”

Blair figures these new iMacs would behave like Apple TVs, streaming movies, TV shows, photo slideshows and more to newer Wi-Fi-enabled televisions and providing them access to content stored on iCloud as well.

It’s not an outrageous idea, particularly as an interim step on the way to a true television set. Or as a good reason for consumers to abandon their current TV sets in favor of iMacs. This would be particularly compelling if Apple was able to persuade the cable companies to stream their content though the Apple TV interface. Add to that AirPlay mirroring on the iPhone, iPad, and iPod touch, voice navigation via Siri, and integrate it all into a 42-inch or better screen, and and you’ve got a pretty good reason to watch TV in your office. Or mount your PC on the living room wall.

Of course, Apple has been down this road before, first with the ill-starred Macintosh TV and then with its Front Row media center program, which was abandoned with the launch of Lion.

The company may not be interested in traveling down it again, particularly these days, when it seems so focused on disruptive changes. If Apple hews to that strategy for its HDTV, there will be no interim step. Just a single big announcement intended to upend the industry as we know it and send the competition scrambling.

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20111207/what-if-apple-television-is-an-imac/feed/ 0 http://allthingsd.com/20111027/big-cable-loses-more-subscribers-still-says-it-isnt-seeing-cord-cutting/ http://allthingsd.com/20111027/big-cable-loses-more-subscribers-still-says-it-isnt-seeing-cord-cutting/#comments Thu, 27 Oct 2011 14:29:21 +0000 Peter Kafka http://allthingsd.com/?p=137312 It’s earnings season, which means it’s time to break out the cord-cutting-is-real-no-it-isn’t debate. As usual: A big cable company — in this case, Time Warner Cable — saw a decrease in video subscribers and continues to insist that it’s not losing people to the Internet, but to the economy.

Here’s the company’s story in an almost-easy-to-understand chart. Pay attention to the parenthetical numbers, which denote subscriber losses. The two to focus on are the video subscribers — down 128,000 for the quarter — and the total subscribers — down 16,000.

And, as usual, there are plausible explanations for the loss which don’t have to include people ditching their TV subscriptions for some kind of Apple TV/Hulu/Netflix combo. The most obvious one is that Time Warner Cable is dealing with competition from telcos like Verizon and satellite guys like DirecTV.

One counter-argument for the cord-cutting crowd: Time Warner Cable’s broadband data subscribers numbers increased — by 89,000 — even as video subs declined. Again, that doesn’t have to be a cord-cutting signal — it’s possible, for instance, to use DirecTV for video and Time Warner for data. But if you’re inclined to think otherwise, that’s what you’re going to do.

Meanwhile, a warning for the advertising business: The company said that “soft advertising” trends it saw last quarter were continuing this quarter.

Cable providers like Time Warner don’t typically have a robust ad sales operation, because it’s a minor point of the business, so you don’t want to make too much of this. But that heads up does sync up with other murmurs about Q4 ads I’ve been hearing from other companies, in other industries, so worth keeping an eye on.

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20111027/big-cable-loses-more-subscribers-still-says-it-isnt-seeing-cord-cutting/feed/ 0 http://allthingsd.com/20111025/apple-tv-bose-videowave/ http://allthingsd.com/20111025/apple-tv-bose-videowave/#comments Tue, 25 Oct 2011 10:35:23 +0000 John Paczkowski http://allthingsd.com/?p=136283 Before he passed away earlier this month, Apple co-founder Steve Jobs told biographer Walter Isaacson that he had finally conceived of a way to build the integrated television set the company has long been rumored to be working on. “It will have the simplest user interface you could imagine,” he said. “I finally cracked it.”

That remark, published Monday in Isaacson’s “Steve Jobs,” has quickened speculation that Apple is poised to reinvent yet another product category and tap into what some analysts believe could be a $50 billion to $100 billion revenue opportunity.

So what might an Apple HDTV look like?

Akin to the Bose VideoWave integrated home entertainment system, against which it is reportedly being benchmarked, says Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry.

“Apple HDTV is directionally similar to Bose VideoWave TV, in terms of simplicity, image and sound quality, and reducing clutter,” Chowdhry theorized in a summer research note republished Monday, adding that Apple, in typical fashion, will take it quite a few steps beyond as well, using its spartan-but-elegant design sensibility to virtually eliminate the more cumbersome aspects of current TVs.

Whereas the VideoWave requires three cables, says Chowdhry, Apple HDTV will likely need just one. It may also be significantly thinner, though he expects it to have an equal number of built-in speakers. “Bose VideoWave HDTV is 6 inches thick and has 16 speakers,” Chowdhry writes. “Apple HDTV will be one third of that thickness and will also have 16 speakers -– these 16 built-in speakers give a complete surround sound experience, without the need for any external speakers.”

Finally, while there is but one VideoWave (a $5,200 unit with a 46” screen), Apple will likely produce three models of its television across a range of price points.

And assuming Apple is working on such a device, there are likely to be other features as well — iTunes support, obviously, a wider viewing angle than the industry standard, voice control via Siri, and integration with iCloud and Apple’s broader hardware and software ecosystems.

But again, that’s if an Apple television is in the pipeline. And at this point, that’s not yet clear.

UPDATE: AllThingsD’s Peter Kafka discussed the subject on “Digits” today. Here’s the clip:

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20111025/apple-tv-bose-videowave/feed/ 0 http://allthingsd.com/20110922/iphone-5-ipad-3-and-lte-iphone-mean-more-monster-quarters-for-apple/ http://allthingsd.com/20110922/iphone-5-ipad-3-and-lte-iphone-mean-more-monster-quarters-for-apple/#comments Thu, 22 Sep 2011 10:34:50 +0000 John Paczkowski http://allthingsd.com/?p=123319 With a number of new products in the pipeline, Apple’s fiscal first quarter will likely be a monster, and its second even more of one.

That’s the theory put forth by Wedbush analyst Scott Sutherland, who predicts Apple will continue to dominate the connected devices market for some time to come with a conga line of new gadgets that includes everything from the soon-to-be-unveiled iPhone 5 to its LTE successor and the next iteration of the iPad.

“A key part of the Apple story remains new product launches,” Sutherland said in a research note. “While the iPhone 4 appears to be selling well due to existing market demand and new markets, we expect a bump up from the iPhone 5 this October, and a lower end iPhone geared towards emerging markets. With the introductions ahead of the holidays, we expect a monster FQ1 (Dec) from Apple. Furthermore, in 1H12, we expect the introduction of a 4G LTE iPhone with a materially improved user interface and the iPad 3.”

Along with those devices, Sutherland sees updates to Apple’s Mac and iPod lines, some improvements to Apple TV and that long-rumored first foray into the connected TV space. Add to this continuing demand for the iPad and iPhone and the broadening of their global distribution — and the official debut of iCloud, which, if properly executed, should further drive app and media sales — and Apple’s financial picture is as rosy as they come.

With this sort of momentum, Apple seems almost unstoppable. With that in mind, Sutherland says he expects Apple to ship 26 million iPhones in FQ1, up from 23 million. And he’s raised his estimate on the company accordingly. His new 12-month price target: $530.

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