Apple has refreshed the iPad once already this year, and Rodman & Renshaw analyst Ashok Kumar says it’s unlikely to do so a second time. The release of a “premium version” of the device has been pushed out to year’s end or beyond, he says — though not because of any production issues. Kumar says this is strictly a marketing/positioning decision. And given the company’s profound lead in the tablet market, there’s little reason for it to rush out the next-generation iPad, hot on the heels of its predecessor. As we noted here last week, Apple is expected to claim the majority of the tablet market for the next couple of years.

So this quarter is already in the bag.

Next one too, most likely.

“Expanding geographic foot print, back-to-school sales and faltering competition suggest upwards of 11 million for the September quarter or almost 20 percent sequential unit growth,” says Kumar. “With competition being held back by either legal injunction or weak sell-through, iPad volumes could further accelerate in the December quarter approaching 15 million units.”

So, Motorola’s struggle, Samsung’s legal woes, Hewlett-Packard’s humiliating flight from the market: All boons for Apple, which seems to be selling the only tablet that people really want.

Rodman & Renshaw analyst Ashok Kumar this morning wonders in a brief research note if the company is at risk of an “interminable slide.” He notes that checks find the company is is paring back orders for the September quarter due to “continued share loss.”

Kumar says that volume shipments of the company’s new flagship N8 smart phone will not start until the September quarter, which he says is “even further out that the current reset expectations.” He thinks that the latest version of the company’s Symbian operating system software could be facing opposition from independent software vendors, “as applications cannot port over from the legacy environment and have to be recompiled.”

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Ashok Kumar, an analyst with Rodman & Renshaw, made the fascinating (and highly controversial) assertion in a research note on Monday that when the dust settles, the market could be down to just two players: Google (GOOG) Android and Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone.

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The Backflip, the first of five Android smartphones AT&T has promised to deliver in 2010, will retail for $99–after a $100 mail-in rebate and a commitment to two years of AT&T data and voice service. It will arrive at market in early March.

The move begins to bring AT&T (T) into parity with Verizon Wireless (VZ) and T-Mobile, which already offer Android handsets like Nexus One and Droid. For Motorola (MOT), it’s another chance to juice sales of its new Android phones, which, as Northeast Securities analyst Ashok Kumar noted just yesterday, have been slowing.

“Motorola’s coming out party appears to be short lived as the success of Nexus One has impacted Motorola’s share at Verizon,” Kumar wrote in a note to clients. “Due to weaker sell through, we are beginning to set negative revisions to production targets. Refresh of the Android platform from HTC, LG, and Samsung will add to competitive pressures later on in the year.”

At $12.34, Palm (PALM) is up well over seven percent as I write this, a nice gain that more than offset the four percent drop the company’s shares suffered last week. Clearly, the market is expecting a lot of the Pixi, and according to some analysts, it may get it. In a note to clients Friday, RBC analysts said they “expect positive consumer reception and healthy sell-through,” for the Pixi.

But not everyone agrees with RBC’s cheery assessment. Ashok Kumar, an analyst at Northeast Securities, has a much dimmer view of Palm’s prospects in the months ahead. He says his sell-through checks show a “substantial decline” in recent Pre sales.

“As a fading brand, carriers are likely to see better returns on their promotional and advertising dollars with other vendors,” Kumar writes. “WebOS has negligible smartphone OS share, 0.2 percent per Gartner estimates, and is unlikely to attract any meaningful third-party application support. Palm has bet the farm on webOS and there is a real possibility that they may not achieve critical mass.”

Perhaps. Perhaps not. We’ll see in the months ahead.

So says Northeast Securities analyst Ashok Kumar, who, in a research note to investors this morning, warned that Chinese sales of the iconic handset are not nearly as good as expected. Certainly, they’re nowhere near capturing the full two percent share of the Chinese wireless market that some observers have predicted. Which I suppose makes perfect sense because the iPhone hasn’t yet gone on sale in China.

Let me say that again: The iPhone is not yet available for purchase in China from China Unicom or any other carrier–at least, according to Apple (AAPL), which is presumably in position to know. So how is it that Northeast Securities is issuing bulletins warning of lousy sales? I have absolutely no idea, but I’m looking into it and will update here when I find out more.

UPDATE: Kumar tells Eric Savitz over at Tech Trader Daily that his analysis is based on presales of the device, which have been occurring since Oct. 1. Reports Savitz: “[Kumar] says that Unicom has set a goal of selling 300,000 phones a month, which would be a little under 75,000 units a week; and he says that pre-sales in the first few days of availability were extremely low, at around 1,000 units.”

Huh. Okay. Though even taking Kumar at his word, it seems like quite a stretch to extrapolate “disappointing sales” from a few days of presale availability.

UPDATE: Nice analysis of all this from Dan Butterfield at iPhonAsia.

So says Northeast Securities analyst Ashok Kumar, who, in a research note to investors this morning, warned that Chinese sales of the iconic handset are not nearly as good as expected. Certainly, they’re nowhere near capturing the full two percent share of the Chinese wireless market that some observers have predicted. Which I suppose makes perfect sense because the iPhone hasn’t yet gone on sale in China.

Let me say that again: The iPhone is not yet available for purchase in China from China Unicom or any other carrier–at least, according to Apple (AAPL), which is presumably in position to know. So how is it that Northeast Securities is issuing bulletins warning of lousy sales? I have absolutely no idea, but I’m looking into it and will update here when I find out more.

UPDATE: Kumar tells Eric Savitz over at Tech Trader Daily that his analysis is based on presales of the device, which have been occurring since Oct. 1. Reports Savitz: “[Kumar] says that Unicom has set a goal of selling 300,000 phones a month, which would be a little under 75,000 units a week; and he says that pre-sales in the first few days of availability were extremely low, at around 1,000 units.”

Huh. Okay. Though even taking Kumar at his word, it seems like quite a stretch to extrapolate “disappointing sales” from a few days of presale availability.

UPDATE: Nice analysis of all this from Dan Butterfield at iPhonAsia.

Kumar says that despite being positioned as a flagship product at Sprint (S), Palm shipped under 300,000 units in May and June. He says the company ramped up production aggressively in July when shipments exceeded build levels in the previous two months, but that the “momentum appears to have already peaked.”

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Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected Intel (INTC) to report revenue of $7.3 billion and a profit of eight cents per share. Instead the company reported revenue of $8 billion and non-GAAP profits of 18 cents (PDF). And it predicted third-quarter revenue above Wall Street’s expectations.

In a statement, CEO Paul Otellini said the results “reflect improving conditions in the PC market segment with our strongest first- to second-quarter growth since 1988 and a clear expectation for a seasonally stronger second half.”

Now admittedly, Intel did post earnings of 28 cents a share in the same period last year. So its fortunes clearly declined in the months that followed. That said, the company appears to be on the rebound after hitting the bottom Otellini declared back in April.

“Basically, very strong numbers for the quarter and guidance is in line with seasonal trends,” Collins Stewart analyst Ashok Kumar told Reuters.” It’s an extremely strong number given the macro economic backdrop. Despite those headwinds, the company delivered significant upside to both guidance as well as as expectations. The big unknown is whether it’s anything more than inventory replenishment.”

Intel shares are on the upswing on the news.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected Intel (INTC) to report revenue of $7.3 billion and a profit of eight cents per share. Instead the company reported revenue of $8 billion and non-GAAP profits of 18 cents (PDF). And it predicted third-quarter revenue above Wall Street’s expectations.

In a statement, CEO Paul Otellini said the results “reflect improving conditions in the PC market segment with our strongest first- to second-quarter growth since 1988 and a clear expectation for a seasonally stronger second half.”

Now admittedly, Intel did post earnings of 28 cents a share in the same period last year. So its fortunes clearly declined in the months that followed. That said, the company appears to be on the rebound after hitting the bottom Otellini declared back in April.

“Basically, very strong numbers for the quarter and guidance is in line with seasonal trends,” Collins Stewart analyst Ashok Kumar told Reuters.” It’s an extremely strong number given the macro economic backdrop. Despite those headwinds, the company delivered significant upside to both guidance as well as as expectations. The big unknown is whether it’s anything more than inventory replenishment.”

Intel shares are on the upswing on the news.

Kumar contends that Apple will gain share in the smart phone segment from both Research In Motion (RIMM) and Microsoft (MSFT) Windows Mobile. He also writes that Google (GOOG) Android is “positioned to be a winner” in the sector.

So back to Apple. Kumar says that a low bill of materials should enable Apple to hit a $99 price point on an 8GB iPhone, stimulating demand. He says a launch with China Mobile (CHL) “is an additional near-term catalyst.” Further out, he thinks the launch of what he calls the “iPhone nano” in the first half of 2010 should help Apple further expand its share of the smart phone segment.

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At least in part, the Street is reacting to this morning’s downgrade of Marvell (MRVL) by Barclays Capital, which–as I noted earlier–was in response to indications from Taiwanese component makers of a slowdown PC demand. Barclays chip analyst Romit Shah wrote that “every company that we met with [in Taiwan] indicated that PC order rates are slowing into the back-to-school season.”

Meanwhile, Collins Stewart analyst Ashok Kumar today notes new data on drive production that he thinks raises ominous clouds for Seagate in particular. Kumar says data from Techno Systems Research, a Japan-based market research firm, find that hard-drive unit production was down 18 percent sequentially in the March quarter, comparable to a 15 percent decline in PC shipments.

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Brand new MySpace CEO Owen Van Natta started things off Monday with his first day on the job. He was joined by new COO and former AOL exec Mike Jones and new chief product officer and former Sling Media exec Jason Hirschhorn. Down in Los Angeles at the AlwaysOn OnHollywood conference, Boomtown ran smack into Huff Post mastermind Arianna Huffington, who extolled the virtues and abilities of new managing editor Jai Singh, former editor-in-chief of CNET Networks. At AOL, in preparation for spinning off the Time Warner (TWX) Online unit, new CEO Tim Armstrong began appointing new senior execs and spinning off existing ones. Platform-A president and former Yahoo (YHOO) sales exec Greg Coleman, who joined the AOL team in February, is leaving the company, to be replaced by Jeff Levick, who is leaving Google (GOOG)–where he had a close relationship with Armstrong. CFO Nisha Kumar is also leaving AOL, and a search is underway for her replacement. MediaMemo has more on Time Warner’s decision to spin off AOL. A number of Flickr engineers were laid off Wednesday, but Chief Architect Cal Henderson has left the company of his own accord and is working on a stealth start-up with Flickr co-founder Stewart Butterfield. Last, but not least, one of the voices covering the digital scene has found a new gig. Owen Thomas, self-described “scourge of [Silicon] Valley,” is leaving Valleywag to head up GE (GE) unit NBC Universal’s new “Bay Area” Web site, whose motto is “Locals Only.” He’ll be replaced by fresh-faced Ryan Tate, recently the night editor for Gawker. Both reporters talked to BoomTown on Friday about the changes.

MediaMemo wrote on Monday about Condé Nast shutting down Portfolio–both the print magazine and the accompanying Web site. On a cautionary note, MM outlined the reasons why Portfolio’s business magazine peers should not celebrate the loss of a competitor, even (or especially) during tough economic times. Is the meteoric ascension of Twitter flattening out? According to a Nielsen Online study, 60 percent of Twitter’s users leave after a month. This was met with a lot of skepticism so Nielsen ran the numbers again with the same results–and this time it’s sticking with them. MediaMemo also had an explanation for why the long-awaited deal between Disney (DIS) and Hulu took months and months and millions of dollars to finally come together. Digital Daily had more on that story.

Digital Daily also had more info on the ever-evolving Palm (PALM) Pre story. First, a rumor that Palm plans to launch the handset on June 7–which would be crazy, given the fact that June 8 is both the first day of Apple’s (AAPL) Worldwide Developers Conference and the day that those in the know expect the next-generation iPhone to drop. Then, there’s an assertion by Collins Stewart analyst Ashok Kumar based on supply chain research that Palm has greatly reduced its production numbers. Time will have to tell, though, because Palm certainly isn’t talking yet. Of course, things could be worse. Dell (DELL) hasn’t even solidified plans for its rumored smartphone, and already, no one really cares.

Dell’s new Adamo laptop and Studio One 19 desktop aren’t causing much excitement either. In this week’s Personal Technology column, Walt Mossberg reports that although both machines look good and function well, neither is groundbreaking. In Mossberg’s Mailbox, Walt answered readers’ questions about improving performance on a PC, using peripheral devices with an iPhone and installing Apple’s OS X on a Windows machine. And in this week’s Mossberg Solution, Katie Boehret tested three apps from the iTunes App Store that make it possible for the iPod touch to function like an iPhone.

More next week.

Collins Stewart analyst Ashok Kumar claims that his supply chain checks indicate that Palm has “drastically reduced its production orders” for the Pre. Kumar says “multiple hardware and software issues” have forced Palm’s hand here and that he doesn’t expect the company to meet its expected goal of one million units shipped in the second half of 2009. He even goes so far as to describe that figure as “highly unrealistic.”

And that’s only the beginning of the company’s troubles, says Kumar, who was apparently wronged by Palm (PALM) in some previous life. It may face significant carrier issues as well: “Sprint is the only major carrier that has signed on to sponsor the Pre platform. Sprint, which has only a third of the subscriber base of either AT&T or Verizon, has been losing customers due to structural problems,” he writes. “In our opinion, it is highly unlikely customers of AT&T or Verizon will switch to Sprint. Across the pond, carriers are taking a wait and see attitude given the high platform cost and lack of conviction on sell through. If Sprint does not match or beat AT&T’s subsidized iPhone price of $199, which translates to a subsidy in excess of $200, the Pre is DOA.”

A decidedly more jaundiced view of the Palm’s position than we’ve been hearing. That said, it’s best considered with at least a portion of the skepticism it brings to the Pre’s prospects. Certainly, supply chain checks don’t always provide the most reliable data. And the Pre is generating quite a bit of interest in advance of its forthcoming launch–whenever that is.

Collins Stewart analyst Ashok Kumar claims that his supply chain checks indicate that Palm has “drastically reduced its production orders” for the Pre. Kumar says “multiple hardware and software issues” have forced Palm’s hand here and that he doesn’t expect the company to meet its expected goal of one million units shipped in the second half of 2009. He even goes so far as to describe that figure as “highly unrealistic.”

And that’s only the beginning of the company’s troubles, says Kumar, who was apparently wronged by Palm (PALM) in some previous life. It may face significant carrier issues as well: “Sprint is the only major carrier that has signed on to sponsor the Pre platform. Sprint, which has only a third of the subscriber base of either AT&T or Verizon, has been losing customers due to structural problems,” he writes. “In our opinion, it is highly unlikely customers of AT&T or Verizon will switch to Sprint. Across the pond, carriers are taking a wait and see attitude given the high platform cost and lack of conviction on sell through. If Sprint does not match or beat AT&T’s subsidized iPhone price of $199, which translates to a subsidy in excess of $200, the Pre is DOA.”

A decidedly more jaundiced view of the Palm’s position than we’ve been hearing. That said, it’s best considered with at least a portion of the skepticism it brings to the Pre’s prospects. Certainly, supply chain checks don’t always provide the most reliable data. And the Pre is generating quite a bit of interest in advance of its forthcoming launch–whenever that is.

Kumar is not optimistic about Dell’s chances for success with that approach, asserting that the company is “facing a stacked deck with little experience on how to play this game.”

Kumar wonders whether consumers will want a phone that the carriers consider to be not good enough to sell directly. “Consumers are used to subsidized handsets and are not used to paying full price,” he notes, and assumes that retailers will provide prime shelf space for Dell’s phones.

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