Does AT&T’s leadership worry that it will face slowing growth and worse, defections, if rumors we’ve been hearing of a Verizon iPhone pan out? Not really.

According to AT&T Wireless CEO Ralph de la Vega, the end of AT&T’s iPhone exclusivity deal doesn’t portend a mass subscriber exodus because switching to a new carrier is simply too hard. Evidently, many AT&T customers are tied to family-talk plans or business-discount plans, which makes switching to a new carrier a difficult proposition.

They’re “sticky” plans, said de la Vega. And he’s got a point. Convincing an employer to switch to a new carrier or migrating a handful of family-plan phones from, say, AT&T (T) to Verizon (VZ), does seem a bit daunting.

Will there be some AT&T subscribers who bolt to the next carrier to offer the iPhone? Certainly. But they may not be nearly as large in number as you might think, particularly if AT&T continues to improve its network and remove incentives for leaving.

Reporting better-than-expected second-quarter earnings this morning, AT&T said it activated 2.4 million iPhone accounts–35 percent of them for new customers. And it saw its wireless data revenue rise 37.2 percent to $3.4 billion and subscriber churn fall to 1.09 percent, a record low.

Clearly, the debut of the iPhone 3GS and Apple’s decision to cut the price of the low-end iPhone to $99 had an enormous impact on AT&T’s bottom line. “AT&T iPhone subscribers, both new customers and upgrades, take two-year contracts with data packages,” the company said. “As a result, robust iPhone demand drives strong recurring revenues and substantial long-term value.”

Litter wonder, then, AT&T (T) is said to be doing it all it can to renew its iPhone exclusivity deal. The company is clearly dependent on the device for some of its most recent gains.

In fact, Commresearch analyst Gregory Lundberg says that were the iPhone to be excluded from the company’s latest financials, 25 percent fewer people would have signed up for its service in the second quarter than in the first. So if it’s true that Verizon (VZ) is in talks with Apple (AAPL) about adding the iPhone to its product lineup, AT&T has a lot to worry about, indeed.

As Pali Research recently noted, “As the iPhone exclusivity period rolls off between AT&T Wireless and Apple, a material number of AT&T customers will flock to Verizon’s superior network. We estimate that nearly a third of AT&T’s post-paid customers are being retained by AT&T primarily because of the iPhone exclusivity.”

Reporting better-than-expected second-quarter earnings this morning, AT&T said it activated 2.4 million iPhone accounts–35 percent of them for new customers. And it saw its wireless data revenue rise 37.2 percent to $3.4 billion and subscriber churn fall to 1.09 percent, a record low.

Clearly, the debut of the iPhone 3GS and Apple’s decision to cut the price of the low-end iPhone to $99 had an enormous impact on AT&T’s bottom line. “AT&T iPhone subscribers, both new customers and upgrades, take two-year contracts with data packages,” the company said. “As a result, robust iPhone demand drives strong recurring revenues and substantial long-term value.”

Litter wonder, then, AT&T (T) is said to be doing it all it can to renew its iPhone exclusivity deal. The company is clearly dependent on the device for some of its most recent gains.

In fact, Commresearch analyst Gregory Lundberg says that were the iPhone to be excluded from the company’s latest financials, 25 percent fewer people would have signed up for its service in the second quarter than in the first. So if it’s true that Verizon (VZ) is in talks with Apple (AAPL) about adding the iPhone to its product lineup, AT&T has a lot to worry about, indeed.

As Pali Research recently noted, “As the iPhone exclusivity period rolls off between AT&T Wireless and Apple, a material number of AT&T customers will flock to Verizon’s superior network. We estimate that nearly a third of AT&T’s post-paid customers are being retained by AT&T primarily because of the iPhone exclusivity.”

If Apple is indeed preparing to offer the iPhone 3G in China in partnership with China Unicom, its sales prospects are looking pretty damn good. Bank of America analyst Scott Craig believes the company could claim as much as a fifth of the smartphone market in China when it launches the device there–and in relatively short order. “Our Asia supply chain checks seem to indicate that Apple believes it can achieve an initial penetration rate, least on a sell-in basis, similar to the iPhone launch in the U.S. (about 20 percent),” Craig wrote in a recent research note. “In fact, given our channel checks in Asia, Apple likely believes it can easily meet (and likely exceed) this and/or believes in other scenarios that result in much higher unit sales levels.”

Craig estimates that Apple (AAPL) can sell 1.5 million iPhones in China in calendar 2009, assuming a midyear release and a price-point of $500-$600. He sees the company selling a further 4.6 million in calendar 2010, and 5.8 million in calendar 2011. That’s a hell of a lot of iPhones. But given the strong gray market interest in China already and the fact that China Unicom’s customer base at 150 million is roughly twice the size of AT&T Wireless, it doesn’t seem like all that much of a stretch.

If Apple is indeed preparing to offer the iPhone 3G in China in partnership with China Unicom, its sales prospects are looking pretty damn good. Bank of America analyst Scott Craig believes the company could claim as much as a fifth of the smartphone market in China when it launches the device there–and in relatively short order. “Our Asia supply chain checks seem to indicate that Apple believes it can achieve an initial penetration rate, least on a sell-in basis, similar to the iPhone launch in the U.S. (about 20 percent),” Craig wrote in a recent research note. “In fact, given our channel checks in Asia, Apple likely believes it can easily meet (and likely exceed) this and/or believes in other scenarios that result in much higher unit sales levels.”

Craig estimates that Apple (AAPL) can sell 1.5 million iPhones in China in calendar 2009, assuming a midyear release and a price-point of $500-$600. He sees the company selling a further 4.6 million in calendar 2010, and 5.8 million in calendar 2011. That’s a hell of a lot of iPhones. But given the strong gray market interest in China already and the fact that China Unicom’s customer base at 150 million is roughly twice the size of AT&T Wireless, it doesn’t seem like all that much of a stretch.