In the first group is Ticonderoga’s Brian White, who expects Apple to sell 29.9 million iPhones in the December quarter, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 84 percent. With him, BTIG Research’s Walter Piecyk, who says AT&T’s good news suggests Apple will sell 30 million iPhones in the quarter, just as he predicted in August.

In the second group: Stern Agee’s Shaw Wu and UBS’s Maynard Um. Wu raised his forecast for iPhone sales this quarter to 28 million, up from 26 million. Um went him two million better, raising his estimate to 30 million from 28 million, though he concedes even that might end up being a little light, thanks to high demand in the Asia Pacific region.

“We believe that there is a general strength across the board for iPhone demand,” Um said in a note to clients. “We continue to believe that our estimates are conservative as [they] are still below where expected build plans are.”

In other words, Apple will likely blow out iPhone sales for the quarter, just as CEO Tim Cook said it would during the company’s last earnings call.

Said Cook, “We’re very confident that we will set an all-time record in the December quarter for iPhone sales. We — in our wildest dreams, we couldn’t have gotten off to a start as great as we have on the 4S.”

White’s checks with Apple’s top Taiwan-based suppliers show a massive spike in component orders for the month — well above anything previously charted.

Typically, Apple’s supply chain shows a 2 percent increase in sales from month to month. But this past November, sales rose 17 percent.

That’s a more than an 8x increase.

Which obviously suggests some pretty strong demand trends in the run-up to the holiday shopping season. And Apple is certainly well poised to exploit them. As White observes, “The company’s portfolio for the holiday season is the hottest we have ever seen with the new iPhone 4S, iPad 2 and MacBook Air.”

So Apple’s first quarter will likely be a big one. And it will likely set a new record. Which means 2011 will be much like 2010, and 2009 before it. The fourth quarter of the calendar year has always been Apple’s strongest. No reason to believe it will be any different this year.

According to White, bottled-up demand for the device is so high right now that it will blow the doors off the first weekend sales record set by the iPhone 4.

“We believe Apple will benefit from pent up demand and will shatter the 1.7 million iPhone 4’s sold in the first three days last year,” White said in a note to clients Monday. “Additionally, the iPhone is now sold to a record number of carriers (228 carriers at end of 3QFY11 vs. 154 at end of 3QFY10 during the iPhone 4 launch) and can operate on CDMA networks, and we believe China will play a more important role as well. We also expect Apple to be more aggressive in rolling out the iPhone 5 to international markets during this launch versus prior years, similar to what was experienced with the iPad 2.”

Reasonable, if not entirely obvious expectations. Apple sells more iPhones with each successive iteration, and given the delay that’s preceded this one and the addition of Sprint as a third carrier, it’s certain to sell a hell of a lot more this time around.

What’s less certain is White’s prediction that Apple plans to uncrate a totally redesigned iPhone tomorrow, one with a larger display and “a sleek, aluminum unibody enclosure that more closely resembles the MacBook Air than the iPhone 4.” That’s a bit more of a stretch considering mounting evidence that suggests the fifth generation iPhone will be similar in design to its predecessor.

“While Amazon’s price point, installed base, digital content and cloud ecosystem will attract a certain consumer demographic to the Kindle Fire, there is still no real competitor to the iPad 2,” Ticonderoga analyst Brian White said in a note to clients today. “Essentially, we believe the Kindle Fire addresses a different market than the iPad 2, a tablet-light user on a tight budget that may not have yet purchased a tablet or already use a Kindle. … It’s hardly an iPad killer.”

Nor does Amazon intend it to be one. As CEO Jeff Bezos said in a message to customers Wednesday, there are two approaches to the tablet market, and both can work. Apple has chosen one (feature-rich, powerful, high-end hardware tightly integrated with a formidable content ecosystem) and Amazon the other: (spartan, feature-limited hardware tightly integrated with a formidable content ecosystem).

With the launch of the Fire, Amazon has a good chance at splitting the tablet market in two and dominating its lower end. Folks in the market for a $500 tablet will likely still look to the iPad. But if that price is too dear, $200 for the Fire is a compelling proposition.

And that’s ugly news for other tablet makers, because at $199, Amazon has really just ruined their pricing.

With rushed-to-market hardware, comparatively weak app ecosystems and mediocre content offerings, what will companies like Research In Motion, Samsung and Motorola do now? Come Nov. 15, there will be two tablets on the market — one at the high end, the other low — and they won’t be able to compete with either of them.

“Our checks in Hong Kong indicate the new MacBook Air was launched over the past week at local authorized resellers,” White said in a note to investors. “The launch was met with long lines and stock-outs of certain new MacBook Air models. Surprisingly, we also heard that certain resellers sold out of the iPhone 4 over the past week, along with certain models of the iPad 2.”

Promising news for Apple, which will soon bring the refreshed Air to Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and elsewhere in mainland China, perhaps as early as next week.

Said White, “Based on our field checks, we believe the new MacBook Air is poised to be a big hit in the Greater China region as more consumers can increasingly afford to own a PC, Apple fever is gaining momentum in the region and there is no laptop product on the market with the characteristics of the new MacBook Air.”

“According to Sohu.com, China Telecom will offer two types of iPhone that include the iPhone 5 and a ‘simplified iPhone 4,’” says White. “Essentially, this potential ‘simplified iPhone 4′ would be a more economical version of iPhone to target a broader customer base in developing countries such as China, allowing for an expanded market opportunity.”

Targeting the smartphone market’s upper and lower ends like this could prove a wise strategy. “We estimate the high-end portion of China Telecom’s subscriber base is approximately 13 to 15 million, which represents a current revenue opportunity for the iPhone of $8- to $9 billion,” White says. “We view this as the most reasonable near-term addressable market opportunity for Apple’s iPhone. However, if Apple offers a more economical, ‘simplified iPhone 4,’ the opportunity with China Telecom could be much larger.”

And should Apple extend that dual iPhone strategy to its other carrier partners in China, the opportunity grows larger still. With an estimated 100 million to 125 million subscribers, White figures the high-end mobile phone market in China could present Apple with a $70 billion revenue opportunity. But if the company is able to use that simplified iPhone 4 to tap into the rest of the market as well, it potentially expands to over $200 billion.

Apple has sold 25 million iPads since launching the device on April 3, 2010, iOS software chief Scott Forstall said yesterday. And as Ticonderoga analyst Brian White reminds us, the company had sold 19.48 million iPads by the end of its March quarter. Which means it sold at least 5.52 million iPads in the first two months of the June quarter.

So assuming demand for the device remains consistent and sales continue at a similar rate this month, Apple is on track to sell 8.28 million iPads in the June quarter–quite a bit more than the Street’s consensus of 6.5 million.

Complete coverage:

• Apple’s WWDC 2011 Keynote: Spotlight on Software
• Apple CEO Steve Jobs Takes the Stage
• Mac OS X Lion Coming in July via Mac App Store
• IOS 5 to Offer Improved Browsing, Notifications, Twitter Integration, 197 Other Features
• The Unlikely Breakout Stars of WWDC: Two Podcasters From the U.K.
• Google, Amazon Dodge a Bullet: Apple’s iCloud Music Is a Meh. (Luckily, There’s Much, Much More)
• Today in Hyperbole (or Possibly Reality): What Did Apple Just Kill?
• Apple’s Lion and Microsoft’s Windows 8 Both Show Mobile’s Influence
• Three Things to Take Away From Apple’s WWDC Announcements (Video)
• Apple’s Invisible iCloud: The Promise of Simple, Seamless Sync
• 25 Million iPads, 1 Billion Tweets: WWDC 2011 by the Numbers
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• Apple Enables Post-PC Era With iOS 5, but Are Users Ready?

It’s nearly a year old, but its color alone has the cachet to catalyze demand, says Ticonderoga analyst Brian White. So much so it may give iPhone sales a nice little tailwind in the June quarter, adding an additional million units or so to Apple’s total for the period.

“…People buy Apple products for many different reasons, including status, aesthetics, functionality, quality and the ‘cool factor,’” says White. “In our view, this delay has created a certain mystique and scarcity value around the ‘white’ iPhone 4 that we believe could drive incremental iPhone 4 purchases in the range of 1 million to 1.5 million units per quarter until the iPhone 5 potentially comes to market in September. At the same time, the ‘white’ iPhone 4 will draw consumers into Apple stores and create a buzz around the company in the near term.”

Leaving aside for a moment the possible bias implied by White’s surname and a predisposition, perhaps, to overestimate the color’s popularity (kidding), he may well have a point.

Apple is promoting the hell out of the white iPhone with a massive “iPhone 4 in White” ad on Apple.com, and the device has certainly managed to command some significant media attention. Anecdotally, I know of a few folks planning to “upgrade to white,” despite the lack of any carrier upgrade eligibility policies for it.

Will that translate into an additional 1.5 million iPhones sold for the quarter? We’ll see.

Nearly a year after it was promised, the white iPhone 4, that rarest of handsets, is finally headed to market, perhaps as soon as this week. Will its arrival have any material impact on sales?

Analysts seem to think it will, though it’s nearly a year old and identical in everything but color to the black iPhone 4 that has been widely available for quite some time. The theory is that the white iPhone 4 carries a certain scarcity value that will catalyze sales and drive incremental demand.

“In our view, the purchase of consumer electronic devices is not always a completely rational decision, and people buy Apple products for many different reasons, including status, aesthetics, functionality, quality and the ‘cool factor,’” says Ticonderoga analyst Brian White. “The delayed launch of a white iPhone has created a certain mystique around the product, and we believe certain demographics will find the product appealing. As such, we expect incremental iPhone 4 purchases due to this launch, driven by replacements, upgrades and/or new iPhone 4 purchases.”

An interesting argument, particularly in light of rumors of a fall iPhone 5 launch. Question is, if you’ve held out this long for a white iPhone 4, why not wait a few months more and buy a white iPhone 5?

PREVIOUSLY

• QOTD: Just in Time For iPhone 5 …
• Apple: No White iPhones ‘Til Spring
• Steve Specifically Asked for Snowfall White and They Came Back Navajo White
• What Happened to the White iPhone 4?

[Image credit: Floptech via MacRumors]

Ticonderoga Securities analyst Brian White says component suppliers in China and Taiwan believe Apple will sell far more iPads than expected.

“During our visit to Asia last fall, we indicated that our checks were pointing to expectations for up to 45 million iPad unit sales by Apple,” says White. “At the time, this number was difficult for many investors and some in the media to get their heads around. However, this week’s meetings are again pointing to expectations for iPad unit sales of 40 million to 45 million units in CY11, well above our estimate of 30.9 million.”

Sounds a tad optimistic. But who knows. In the end, Apple will sell as many iPads as it can build. And we’ll get a better idea of that number when the company reports second-quarter results next week.

Ticonderoga Securities analyst Brian White says Apple has been working hard to eliminate Japan-related constraints, proactively securing components from overseas suppliers.

“Our checks are indicating that Apple is aggressively attacking the situation in Japan and immediately sent executives to suppliers to ensure adequate supply of components, while also offering upfront cash payments,” White wrote in a research bulletin. “Additionally, our contacts indicate that Apple has been in Taiwan securing component capacity with a “3 Cover” guarantee (e.g., capacity, stock and price) that could block out competitors, providing the company with further market share gain opportunities.”

White’s report lends further credence to market chatter that had Apple seeking out new vendors in Taiwan to ensure access to key components. The company was recently rumored to have tapped AU Optronics as a secondary source of iPad displays, agreeing to pay a rumored 300 percent to 400 percent premium to guarantee a steady supply. Sources said that the deal would require about half of the capacity of AU’s fifth-generation plant in central Taiwan, which could end up producing 100,000 displays daily for Apple.

Add to this Apple’s long-term strategic supply chain investments and the tendency of its customers to wait for its products rather than buying a commodity substitute and the company would appear to be on solid footing. We’ll find out for certain of April 20th, when Apple reports earnings.

That’s Apple’s sole comment to date on sales of its newest tablet and one far less specific than those with which it trumpeted sales of the first iPad. Which likely means one of two things: 1) early sales don’t merit a press release; 2) they do and Apple just hasn’t issued one yet or has decided to save that data point for its next earnings report.

Market consensus seems to be the latter. Already, early first weekend sales estimates of 400,000 to 600,000 are being made to look conservative as more bullish predictions hit the wires. Brian White at Ticonderoga Securities and Scott Sutherland at Wedbush both say they wouldn’t be surprised to see Apple sell close to one million iPad 2s in the opening weekend. And assuming supplies weren’t too constrained, they may well be proven right. With the consumer electronics market consumed by tablet mania largely unfulfilled by rival devices that have yet to arrive at market, the demand is certainly there. And the broader distribution network supporting the iPad 2′s launch (Best Buy, Wal-Mart, Target, AT&T, Verizon) suggests that Apple was reasonably prepared to meet it.

That said, nearly every analyst report I’ve read this morning notes that field checks of iPad retail outlets found most stores, including Apple retail locations, had weekend stock-outs. “Our checks pointed to a shocking 100% stock-out rate across Apple/authorized retail stores just a few hours into the official launch Friday evening, contributing to what we believe was one of the company’s most successful product launches to date,” Deutsche Bank analyst Chris Whitmore said in a note to clients Monday.

So in the end, Apple didn’t have enough iPad 2s on hand to completely satisfy demand. The question now is, did it satisfy enough of it to brag about.

Several recent Street research reports note that conditions in the LCD panel sector have been difficult for much of the third quarter, raising questions about the companies’ ability to hit current Street estimates.

Brian White, an analyst with Collins Stewart, noted in a roundup piece on the electronics supply chain today that he visited last week with three leading Taiwan-based LCD panel makers, and came away with a “reinforced” cautious stance on AU Optronics, which he rates Hold.

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