J.P. Morgan analyst Mark Moskowitz figures Apple could rake in as much as $6 billion from CDMA iPhone sales through Verizon, and half that through carrier partners overseas, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region.

“We expect the iPhone’s relative growth to moderate over time, but in the next 18-24 months, we see incremental growth opportunities in both Asia- Pacific and the U.S., specifically in CDMA-based networks,” he writes. “Apple just began to penetrate this opportunity with its Verizon iPhone launch in February, and we think that the incremental CDMA market penetration can be a multi-year phenomenon for the company.”

I’d say so, considering there are some 564 million CDMA subscribers worldwide, of which Verizon’s 95 million comprise just 17 percent. So where will Apple bring the CDMA iPhone next? Moskowitz thinks the company will focus its efforts where CDMA adoption rates are highest: China, India, Japan, and South Korea. And, in all likelihood, it’s probably close to hammering at least a few of these deals out.

Apple is widely rumored to be negotiating a CDMA iPhone deal with China Telecom. It’s also said to be in talks with Reliance and rival CDMA carrier Tata Teleservices in India. Assuming Apple finalizes some, if not all, of them in the next year, what kind of sales and revenue can we expect from them? Moskowitz expects Apple to sell 10 million CDMA iPhones through Verizon in calendar 2012 for $6 billion in revenues. Overseas, he expects the company to capture about 10 percent of the CDMA market in 2012, which would generate approximately $3 billion in revenue.

That’s a nice boost to Apple’s bottom line and to the iPhone’s growth trajectory, which may well continue to outpace that of the broader smartphone market–if Moskowitz’s numbers pan out.

[Image credits: iFixit and JP Morgan]

But evidently that’s not the case.

Pre-orders were huge, of course, cutting down the need for people to go out to a store, so early reports from around the country revealed a far more sedate response to a long-awaited event that ironically seems pretty uneventful. Fifteen minutes before the the Verizon iPhone went on sale, there were just eight people in line at Apple’s flagship store in New York, according to CNNMoney. At a lower-Manhattan Verizon store, 21 people queued up to buy the iPhone.

The scene was largely the same around the country, according to other reports: 20 folks at a Gainesville Verizon Store, 10 at another in Plainview, a dozen in Milwaukee, a “few dozen” in Lincoln, Neb.,. And before you the blame cold temperatures for the modest turnout, consider this: The line in front of Apple’s Stockton Street flagship store in San Francisco this morning was just two people long. Said News.com’s Marguerite Reardon, “Upon arriving here about five minutes (before the 7 a.m. opening of the store), there were literally more Apple Store employees, police officers and reporters–each–than people in line to buy iPhones.”

So, a pretty staid turnout for a device that’s generated such monomaniacal interest for so long. That said, it’s important to remember that Verizon isn’t launching the iPhone into a market with a vast untapped demand for it. In reality, most folks who absolutely had to have an iPhone bought one from AT&T. And those who refused to leave Verizon to do so likely pre-ordered one last week. In the end, the lines (or lack thereof) we’re seeing today have very little to do with how big a seller the iPhone will be for Verizon (and for proof of that, one need only look to foreign markets with multiple iPhone carriers). Sales estimates vary pretty widely, but many suggest Apple will sell between 9 million and 13 million iPhones through Verizon this year–a big boost no matter how you look at it. The big lines will return with the debut of iPhone 5.

PREVIOUSLY: Verizon’s iPhone Sales So Amazing They Can’t Even Put a Number On It

[Image Credit: Christine Bartolucci ]

The CDMA iPhone: Some publications have suggested that Verizon is discussing with Apple the possibility of making a version of the iPhone to run on the carrier’s existing CDMA network. USA Today reported this in a story earlier this week, and the New York Times (NYT) echoed it, even as it noted why this idea makes no sense. CDMA is essentially a U.S. technology used by Verizon and Sprint (S). The rest of the world operates on a standard called GSM. That’s partly why Apple (AAPL) chose to work with AT&T (T) (a GSM provider) in the first place.

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