Nokia will begin selling its Lumia 800C, which runs with Microsoft Corp.’s Windows Phone operating system and is supported by mobile carrier China Telecom Corp., in April for 3,599 yuan, or about $570, roughly within the range for a high-end phone in China. In the second quarter, the company will launch the introductory smartphone Lumia 610C to target younger audiences, said Stephen Elop, chief executive of Nokia, on at a press event Wednesday in Beijing.

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Remarking on sales of the 4S in Greater China, during the company’s recent first-quarter earnings call, CEO Tim Cook said demand for the device there has been staggering. “We felt we were betting bold, as I think many of you would have thought if you would have known what we were doing,” Cook said of the 4S rollout plan for the country. “But as it turns out, we didn’t bet high enough.”

That’s a rare admission of misjudgment from a company that doesn’t often make them. It’s also a comment that speaks to the massive size of the Chinese market, which remains largely untapped by Apple, thanks to its lone-carrier deal in the country.

Right now, Apple only has a deal with China Unicom, which gives it access to about 10 percent of China’s 150 million “high-end” mobile subscribers, according to Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty. If it were to a sign a similar deal with China Telecom, it would gain access to another 15 million. And if it at long last brought the iPhone to China Mobile, it would gain access to an additional 120 million.

That’s a massive addressable market, and one that Apple can ill afford to ignore. To do so would be to leave a lot of easy money on the table, according to Huberty. She figures that adding China Telecom as a carrier partner would create an additional two million to four million iPhone users in the near term. And adding China Mobile would create a much bigger multiple of that.

“We estimate China Unicom has 3 million iPhone users, implying a 20 percent penetration of its 15 million high-end subscriber base,” Huberty said. “The same penetration at China Mobile given its 120 million high-end subscribers would equate to 24 million iPhones, with 14 million switching from other feature phones or smartphones and 10 million existing iPhone users on the 2G network upgrading to the faster 4G network.”

Huberty expects the iPhone to arrive on China Telecom in the next few months. Its debut on China Mobile, however, will take a bit longer, and isn’t likely to occur until Apple introduces the iPhone 5, which is expected to be compatible with the carrier’s upcoming 4G network (TD-LTE).

So, 24 million to 26 million additional iPhone users, if Apple were to sign up both China Telecom and China Mobile. And that’s the base-case scenario. Huberty’s more bullish view of the situation lifts that number to 40 million, and predicts that a few years from now, Apple could sell 57 million iPhones per year in China alone. And that is truly a spectacular number.

After all, Apple sold 68.5 million iPhones worldwide in fiscal 2011.

The China Radio Management office, which certifies cellphones for use in the country, has approved an iPhone that appears to be built for China Telecom’s CDMA2000 network.

For some time now, China Telecom has been rumored as one of Apple’s future iPhone partners, so this certification isn’t particularly surprising. Nor is it indicative of an imminent launch. There’s at least one more stop in the device’s regulatory journey. It must receive a license from China’s Telecommunications Equipment and Certification Center before it can be officially sold in the country.

But once that hurdle has been cleared and a deal with Apple officially signed, sales could begin rather quickly, increasing Apple’s addressable iPhone market by China Telecom’s 123 million mobile subscribers. Currently, China Unicom is Apple’s sole iPhone partner in China.

China Telecom did not respond to a request for comment.

CAVEAT: As MacRumors editor Eric Slivka wrote in to point out, while this CDMA-2000-compatible iPhone could cetainly be used on China Telecom’s network, it’s actually the same A1387 world-mode device that’s already headed to China Unicom.

AT&T already offers its clients services in China, including virtual private networks, which enable secure connections between different geographies, by partnering with China Telecom to use its local network infrastructure, made up of fibers and switches. But the new deal deepens ties between the two companies, which have had a joint venture with Shanghai Information Investment Co. called Shanghai Symphony Telecommunications Co. since 2000, giving AT&T more access to China Telecom’s infrastructure, and vice versa.

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“According to Sohu.com, China Telecom will offer two types of iPhone that include the iPhone 5 and a ‘simplified iPhone 4,’” says White. “Essentially, this potential ‘simplified iPhone 4′ would be a more economical version of iPhone to target a broader customer base in developing countries such as China, allowing for an expanded market opportunity.”

Targeting the smartphone market’s upper and lower ends like this could prove a wise strategy. “We estimate the high-end portion of China Telecom’s subscriber base is approximately 13 to 15 million, which represents a current revenue opportunity for the iPhone of $8- to $9 billion,” White says. “We view this as the most reasonable near-term addressable market opportunity for Apple’s iPhone. However, if Apple offers a more economical, ‘simplified iPhone 4,’ the opportunity with China Telecom could be much larger.”

And should Apple extend that dual iPhone strategy to its other carrier partners in China, the opportunity grows larger still. With an estimated 100 million to 125 million subscribers, White figures the high-end mobile phone market in China could present Apple with a $70 billion revenue opportunity. But if the company is able to use that simplified iPhone 4 to tap into the rest of the market as well, it potentially expands to over $200 billion.

Reuters reports that long-running discussions between the two companies are nearing a deal that would allow China Telecom, the country’s third largest wireless carrier, to begin selling the iPhone by the end of this year.

“It’s expected to happen this year,” a source close to the company told Reuters. “China Telecom already has the required technology and it all hinges on content of the agreement. As we all know, it’s not easy to negotiate with Apple.”

No word on a hard launch date yet, though November seems a likely target.

Regardless of when the device debuts on China Telecom, the implications of a broadening of iPhone distribution in China are significant. As I’ve noted here before there are potentially massive growth opportunities for Apple in the Asia-Pacific. China Telecom currently has about 105.7 million wireless subscribers and 19.7 million of them use 3G. That’s a vast untapped market, one that Ticonderoga analyst Brian White says could represent a revenue opportunity for the iPhone of $8 billion to $9 billion.

And potentially more — much more.

Says White, “…If we assumed China Telecom’s entire 3G subscriber base could afford an iPhone, we estimate this represents a $12 billion revenue opportunity for the iPhone. If we assumed China Telecom’s entire subscriber base of 105.7 million users could afford an iPhone, we estimate the iPhone opportunity at $66 billion.”

J.P. Morgan analyst Mark Moskowitz figures Apple could rake in as much as $6 billion from CDMA iPhone sales through Verizon, and half that through carrier partners overseas, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region.

“We expect the iPhone’s relative growth to moderate over time, but in the next 18-24 months, we see incremental growth opportunities in both Asia- Pacific and the U.S., specifically in CDMA-based networks,” he writes. “Apple just began to penetrate this opportunity with its Verizon iPhone launch in February, and we think that the incremental CDMA market penetration can be a multi-year phenomenon for the company.”

I’d say so, considering there are some 564 million CDMA subscribers worldwide, of which Verizon’s 95 million comprise just 17 percent. So where will Apple bring the CDMA iPhone next? Moskowitz thinks the company will focus its efforts where CDMA adoption rates are highest: China, India, Japan, and South Korea. And, in all likelihood, it’s probably close to hammering at least a few of these deals out.

Apple is widely rumored to be negotiating a CDMA iPhone deal with China Telecom. It’s also said to be in talks with Reliance and rival CDMA carrier Tata Teleservices in India. Assuming Apple finalizes some, if not all, of them in the next year, what kind of sales and revenue can we expect from them? Moskowitz expects Apple to sell 10 million CDMA iPhones through Verizon in calendar 2012 for $6 billion in revenues. Overseas, he expects the company to capture about 10 percent of the CDMA market in 2012, which would generate approximately $3 billion in revenue.

That’s a nice boost to Apple’s bottom line and to the iPhone’s growth trajectory, which may well continue to outpace that of the broader smartphone market–if Moskowitz’s numbers pan out.

[Image credits: iFixit and JP Morgan]

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster figures that if the iPhone continues to grow apace with the broader smartphone market at a rate of roughly 35 percent in calendar 2011, Apple could conceivably sell over 200 million iPhones in 2015.

Today, Apple’s addressable market is about 1.7 billion subscribers thanks to distribution deals with a multitude of carriers worldwide. And according to Munster, there’s further upside still. “We believe Apple still has meaningful opportunity remaining to add to its addressable subscriber base,” he wrote in a note to clients. “The recently added Verizon has over 90 million subs, and with the launch of the CDMA iPhone, Apple could add China Telecom (also 90 million subs) and Indian carrier Reliance (110 million subs). We believe Apple could add China Telecom and/or Reliance to its list of carrier partners in CY11.”

In other words, though Apple’s current carrier agreements give it access to 1.7 billion subscribers, it’s still just beginning to tap into a number of critical markets. For evidence of this, one need only look back to Apple’s last earnings report. iPhone sales in Asia more than doubled in Q1. Revenue from China was a staggering $2.6 billion, and according to COO Tim Cook, Apple stores in the country were among the company’s highest traffic and revenue stores in the world.

The iPhone exclusivity deals are fast becoming an anomaly, with Apple inking more multi-carrier distribution agreements in markets it first entered with a lone partner. The latest to undergo the transformation: Germany.

Come November, Deutsche Telekom’s three-year run as the iPhone’s exclusive German carrier will end, as rivals Vodafone and O2 add the device to their smartphone lineups.

Which means iPhone carrier exclusivity is a phenomenon now limited to countries like the United States and China, and even there it seems to be on its last legs.

Rumors have been circulating for months now of new partnerships with China Telecom and Verizon (VZ) that would make both countries multi-carrier, which is in Apple’s (AAPL) best interests financially as it tends to dramatically increase sell-through.

Another Verizon (VZ) iPhone rumor to add to the pile, with a few caveats: Market source reports from Taiwanese trade publications like DigiTimes are sometimes dubious. Remarks by Verizon CEO Ivan Seidenberg this week suggest that the iPhone isn’t headed to the carrier’s network in the near future–certainly not as soon as this DigiTimes report suggests. “We would love to carry [the iPhone], but we have to earn it,” he said. “I can’t speak for Apple.”

That comment was widely interpreted to mean that Verizon hasn’t yet earned the right to carry the device. Which might be the case–unless this was simply a bit of misdirection from Seidenberg. In any event, the fact that Pegatron is said to be ramping up to build a CDMA iPhone doesn’t necessarily mean the device is destined for Verizon. As I’ve noted here before, it could be intended for Sprint (S)–or a foreign carrier like China Telecom, KDDI (Japan) or Telefonica (Mexico).

Foreign companies have few possible paths into China’s telecom sector, which is dominated by the giant state-owned parents of China Mobile, China Unicom (Hong Kong) Ltd. and China Telecom Corp. Investing in those Hong Kong-listed units, like Vodafone and others have done, grants little influence over the operation of their parent companies and doesn’t license a foreign company to offer telecom services in China.

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Which doesn’t mean that it’s true. Just that there’s a lot of drumming going on.

Still, for the record: Apple blogger John Gruber reports that Apple is doing advanced testing on a CDMA version of the iPhone–the kind of testing it would need to bring the phone to Verizon’s (VZ) wireless network.

Even if you take Gruber’s word for it, the existence of CDMA test units doesn’t make a Verizon deal a foregone conclusion. It’s possible, for instance, that the phones are designed with other CDMA carriers in mind–like Sprint (S), China Telecom or SK Telecom (SKM).

But the story does fit nicely with other reports pointing to an impending iPhone/Verizon launch, perhaps in January. Stories we’ve heard all year long, but have been hearing more frequently in the past few days.

I’ve asked Apple PR reps for their take. I’m not planning on hearing back, but if I do I will dutifully update. UPDATE: Apple declines to comment.

“Two people familiar with the plans” tell Bloomberg that Verizon (VZ) will begin peddling the Apple (AAPL) phone in January, after the exclusivity deal with AT&T (T) expires. No details beyond that, though a research note this morning from Barclays (BCS) says we might expect an announcement at the Consumer Electronics Show.

“Our component and distribution checks indicate that Apple is likely to begin production of a CDMA iPhone, possibly with LTE support, in 4Q10 for launch at Verizon in January 2011, perhaps at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES),” analyst Ben Reitzes wrote. “We believe Apple’s U.S. unit volume is likely to grow from 11 million units in 2010 to at least 15 million in 2011 as a result, with 9 million at Verizon and 6 million at AT&T. We also believe Apple may launch the device in other CDMA markets, in particular China with China Telecom.”

Whatever. As I’ve said before, at this point I’d be happy to see the iPhone added to Verizon’s lineup, if only to put an end to these seemingly endless rumors.

Well, it looks like Apple may have decided that such a partnership does make sense, because industry sources are telling the occasionally reliable DigiTimes that Pegatron Technology is manufacturing a CDMA version of the iPhone 4 suitable for the Verizon network (CDMA is short for code division multiple access).

Another Verizon iPhone rumor, I know. But in this case, it is lent credence by a March Wall Street Journal report that claimed essentially the same thing.

Still, that Apple (AAPL) has contracted Pegatron to build a CDMA iPhone does not necessarily mean the device is destined for Verizon (VZ). There are other carriers that use the CDMA standard: Sprint (S), China Telecom and SK Telecom (SKM), to name a few.

That said, Verizon is certainly an attractive candidate, as the carrier would immediately give Apple access to about 80 million new customers. And the concessions Apple has recently squeezed out of AT&T (T)–a “breakthrough” wireless deal for the iPad and a six-month extension on eligibility for iPhone 4 upgrade pricing–do suggest that the carrier is doing all it can to prolong its iPhone-exclusivity agreement and lock as many customers into new contracts as it can before it ends.

Anyway, at this point I’d be happy to see the iPhone added to Verizon’s lineup, if only to put an end to these seemingly endless rumors.

But Tuesday Wang said: “If there’s demand from customers, we welcome any creative new device. Our focus is to bring convenience and enjoyment to our customers. Since iPad has just been launched, it takes time for us to evaluate the product. Both of us [China Telecom and Apple] have to evaluate the market situation in China to see how large the market demand would be. It will determine whether we have any interest in any cooperation.”

China Telecom’s more open approach toward Apple products signifies intensifying competition in the Chinese telecom market.

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An attractive dividend yield, cheaper valuation compared to its competitors, China Unicom (Hong Kong) Ltd. (CHU) and China Telecom Corp. (CHA), as well as improving growth prospects with the launch of more advanced third-generation telecom services likely means a much better year for the telecom operator in 2010.

“Undeniably, China Mobile’s net profit growth has slowed down. But at current low valuation, we see values in the stock given its strong brand and huge subscriber base,” said Kevin Yim, an analyst at Guococapital.

Shares of China Mobile, the world’s biggest telecom operator by subscribers, have largely underperformed the broader market due to worries over rising competition after a government-mandated industry restructuring merged China’s six telecom operators into three nationwide full-service operators in late 2008. Due mainly on those concerns, its shares fell 6.4 percent in 2009, while the benchmark Hang Seng Index rose 52 percent. The company’s shares rose 0.5 percent Monday, to 74.85 Hong Kong dollars (US$9.65) each. But at current levels, China Mobile is trading around 10 times 2010 price-to-earnings multiple, much lower than China Unicom (Hong Kong)’s 30 times and China Telecom’s 15 times.

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So begins a research note from Morgan Stanley (MS) analyst Ehud Gelblum that says the end of Palm’s carrier exclusivity with Sprint can’t come soon enough. According to Gelblum, limited distribution in the U.S. through the country’s third largest wireless carrier has hamstrung Palm by limiting the addressable market for the company’s new super-smartphones, the Pre and Pixi.

“We believe much of the scale issues Palm has experienced to date have been a function of its exclusive distribution agreement in the US with Sprint, which despite having deployed advertising dollars to the Palm brand, has seen negative net sub adds for 9 quarters and has had a mixed marketing message in its handset portfolio simultaneously promoting Palm, the Samsung Instinct, HTC Hero, and LG Fusion,” Gelblum writes.

“However, we expect this to change rapidly in 2010,” the analyst adds, “as the CEOs of both AT&T and Verizon Wireless stated last summer that each would carry Palm webOS products after the exclusivity with Sprint expires which we expect to happen in calendar Q1 of 2010.”

And once Palm (PALM) has enough multicarrier distribution support, well, look out. With Sprint (S), Palm has an addressable market of 26 million potential subscribers. With Sprint, Verizon (VZ) AND AT&T (T), that market spikes to 196 million. Throw in China Telecom and it spikes to 406 million.

That’s a large addressable market and one that will undoubtedly juice webOS development. A richer Palm apps environment will attract more subscribers to Palm and, in theory, bootstrap the company into relevance.

The company joins China Mobile Ltd. in offering BlackBerry devices. The agreement also could help China Telecom gain ground against China Unicom (Hong Kong) Ltd., which offers Apple Inc.’s (AAPL) iPhones.

China Telecom spokesman Jacky Yung said Monday the company is working out the practical arrangements with RIM. It doesn’t have a timetable yet for when it will start offering the BlackBerry devices.

He also said the company is still in talks with Palm Inc. (PALM) to offer Palm’s handsets in the mainland.

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There is “no sign of the sort of sellout reception that greeted the smart phone at its introduction in other countries,” The Wall Street Journal reported, adding that there were no lines for the iPhone at the Apple store in Beijing, the company’s only location in China.

Sounds like a lackluster launch, and with Apple (AAPL) and China Unicom, the only carrier authorized to sell the device in the country, declining to disclose sales figures, it’s difficult to argue that it was otherwise. It clearly wasn’t the rousing success to which we’ve become accustomed. That said, it probably wasn’t quite the bust it’s been made out to be, either.

Why? Well, consider this: There were launch ceremonies in 30 provinces. To date, we’ve heard anecdotal reports from–as best I can tell–one of them. And while it’s admittedly concerning to learn that a China Unicom store in Beijing sold just 10 iPhones last Saturday, that’s just one store. The device was on sale in many, many others (1000, according to Apple COO Tim Cook) across 30 provinces and 285 Chinese cities in a nation with 710 million mobile-phone subscribers.

Finally, while it’s true that the prices Apple and China Unicom are charging for the iPhone are heady, they’re not quite as bad as we’ve been led to believe. “I think the western media has misconstrued the iPhone pricing in China,” Dan Butterfield, editor of iPhonAsia told me.

“Nine out of 10 reports that I’ve seen have simply repeated the ‘too expensive’ mantra,” Butterfield explained. “They then quote the contract free price point–4,999 yuan ($730) to 6,999 yuan ($1,025) for the iPhone 3GS. They argue that you can buy a gray-market iPhone cheaper and it has WiFi….The truth…the gray-market price is marginally cheaper for those who want to go ‘prepaid.’ But when you examine the full matrix of China Unicom price/plans, you quickly realize that you can save big by going on contract vs. prepaid (pay as you go). There are even four price/plans where your iPhone if free. The iPhone subsidy increases for those who opt for more expensive monthly plans.”

Butterfield elaborates: “Moreover, if you want to access ’3G,’ there is no good carrier option other than China Unicom. You can run at 2G speeds on China Mobile or China Telecom. But neither of these two networks support the chipset in iPhone. China Mobile runs TDSCDMA 3G and China Telecom runs CDMA2000 3G. So you are left with China Unicom’s WCDMA 3G–a world-standard 3G protocol fully supported by iPhone 3G/3GS. Why not go on contract and get a subsidized iPhone that is well below the ‘too expensive’ (contract free) prices that the media is shouting about?”

And in the end, does it even matter? As Butterfield noted, an iPhone sale is an iPhone sale–whether it’s made by a gray-market vendor or an authorized one. And either way, it’s good for Apple.

So was the iPhone’s launch in China really a bust? “Probably not,” said Butterfield. “Was it a rousing success? Probably not. The truth is somewhere in the middle.”

UPDATE: Well what do you know: China Unicom just coughed up some first weekend sales numbers for the iPhone and … well, they’re not much to look. The carrier sold just 5,000.

This morning, a report in Shanghai Securities News claimed the two companies had reached an agreement that grants China Unicom three years of exclusivity. The terms are said to call for the carrier to purchase iPhones from Apple for 3,000 yuan ($439) each and guarantee annual sales of one million to two million units and at least five billion yuan ($732 million) in annual revenue.

At present, there is no revenue-sharing agreement. That had become a sticking point in negotiations and Apple (AAPL) seems to have foregone it in order to finalize the deal.

But has an overall agreement really been reached? As I noted earlier, state-run media claim it has. China Unicom, however, says otherwise.

“We have made progress but there are still some problems to be resolved,” a Unicom spokesperson told AFP. “Both sides have their own timeframe for an agreement but essentially it depends on the practical progress of the negotiations.”

That said, it seems clear that an agreement will be reached. Certainly, China Unicom would be foolish to balk at this point. To win the right to be the sole supplier of the iPhone in the world’s largest mobile market for three years would go a long way toward bolstering Unicom’s weak performance and make it easier for it to compete against rivals China Mobile and China Telecom.

This morning, a report in Shanghai Securities News claimed the two companies had reached an agreement that grants China Unicom three years of exclusivity. The terms are said to call for the carrier to purchase iPhones from Apple for 3,000 yuan ($439) each and guarantee annual sales of one million to two million units and at least five billion yuan ($732 million) in annual revenue.

At present, there is no revenue-sharing agreement. That had become a sticking point in negotiations and Apple (AAPL) seems to have foregone it in order to finalize the deal.

But has an overall agreement really been reached? As I noted earlier, state-run media claim it has. China Unicom, however, says otherwise.

“We have made progress but there are still some problems to be resolved,” a Unicom spokesperson told AFP. “Both sides have their own timeframe for an agreement but essentially it depends on the practical progress of the negotiations.”

That said, it seems clear that an agreement will be reached. Certainly, China Unicom would be foolish to balk at this point. To win the right to be the sole supplier of the iPhone in the world’s largest mobile market for three years would go a long way toward bolstering Unicom’s weak performance and make it easier for it to compete against rivals China Mobile and China Telecom.

Microsoft officially rolled out the next version of its Windows Live Services tonight, with a heavy emphasis on socializing its online offerings and giving users better tools to share all sorts of information from across the Web within them.

Microsoft (MSFT) said the changes–similar to those made by Yahoo (YHOO) and Time Warner (TWX) online unit AOL recently–would “begin rolling out to customers in the U.S. over the coming weeks and will be made available globally in 54 countries and in 48 languages by early 2009.”

You might call its the “Facebooking” of Windows Live, which is the brand name for Microsoft’s communications and other related online services aimed at consumers, especially because the much anticipated changes also include a new profile and a “What’s New” feed.

So, if imitation is the most sincere form of flattery, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg should feel beloved by Microsoft, since both are direct borrows of two of the social-networking site’s most prominent features.

(See many screenshots of the newly refreshed Window Live services below.)

But don’t call it a social network, said Brian Hall, who is the general manager of the Windows Live unit, in a lovely breakfast interview with BoomTown yesterday.

“No one wants to sign up for another social network,” said Hall. “But everyone does want to be able to share and bring together all they do on the Web, and we want to make sure all our users can do that in the easiest way possible.”

(Sadly, the video I did with Hall–who is Seth Rogen lookalike, and I mean that in a good way–got eaten up in my new Flip MinoHD software, which was entirely due to my boneheadedness.)

But, in it, Hall underscored that Microsoft is now fully committed to opening Windows Live Services up to whatever consumers want to do with their online lives and wherever they want to do it.

And, indeed, the “next generation” of Windows Live will inject social elements into its Photo Gallery photo sharing, Hotmail email, Spaces groups and Messenger instant messaging offerings, as well as Microsoft’s calendar and mobile products.

The move will also more significantly integrate many third-party partners into the mix. Microsoft’s outside partners announced tonight include Flickr, LinkedIn, Pandora, Photobucket, Twitter, WordPress and Yelp. (See the full list below.)

Microsoft also announced alliances with Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and China Telecom to deliver Windows Live services.

Microsoft says there are more than 460 million Windows Live customers (its instant messaging offering accounts for a bulk of this number and will see the most socializing impact), but is bowing to the obvious and inevitable trend of consumers creating and sharing all over the Internet.

But, said Hall, Microsoft is also sticking to its mantra of “software plus services” here, noting that consumers want the existing tools they use now regularly to become more social, rather than having to abandon them.

Microsoft is also launching its Windows Live Essentials, which are free widgets that can be used across a range of devices and places, such as personal computers, mobile phones and on Web sites.

Finally, to let users store all that content and information, Microsoft said it is also increasing its Windows Live SkyDrive online storage offering from 5GB to 25GB.

Here are the screenshots of the new Windows Live services (click on them to make them larger):

Windows Live Home Page

Windows Live Profile Page

Windows Live Messenger Page

Windows Live Web Activities Page

Windows Live Groups Page

Partner Integration for Windows Live

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