Yahoo will report its fourth quarter earnings tomorrow, after the markets close, which most expect to be lackluster compared to a year ago.

To call this report a surprise would be, well, wrong.

In fact, it will be the 13th quarter in which the Silicon Valley Internet giant has done worse that the previous year. (This has happened as Internet advertising has boomed for sites like Google and Facebook, as a point of reference.)

Welcome aboard, new CEO Scott Thompson! Now, what are you going to do about it?

Probably cut costs first, including staff, and try to quickly figure out an all-new, this-time-it’ll-take strategery about what to do to turnaround the much beleaguered Yahoo.

But, first, the depressing quarter to deliver again.

The estimates for that weak performance have a range, but the consensus of analysts is expecting revenue to be $1.19 billion on profits of 23 to 24 cents. If Yahoo has managed to rein in costs more than expected, some analysts are hoping for a slightly better report.

Still, all the indications are for more negative signs in user engagement, search share, display advertising stats and more.

Thus, we await the light at the end of the tunnel.

As Citigroup’s Mark Mahaney noted in his cheat-sheet analysis:

“Valuation remains intriguing, but we’re still waiting for convincing Top-Line Turnaround Story Proof. With new CEO Scott Thompson, we believe YHOO will be another wait-and-see turn-around story.”

Of course, much of the action is taking place elsewhere, with the company ferreting away at the deal to sell off a big stake in Yahoo’s Asian assets and also subtracting and adding new board members.

But tomorrow, it’s once more unto the Wall Street breach, dear friends, or close the wall up with our purple dread.

Until the results are in, here’s a recent video I did for WSJ.com’s online Digits show on the possible layoffs at Yahoo:

Earlier this month, investors pushed Google shares up past $670 — the highest they’ve ever been. They’ve since pulled back a bit, but not for performance reasons: The Street still expects Google to post net revenue of around $8.4 billion — that’s up about 30 percent over the previous year — and earnings of around $10.46 a share — up about 20 percent.

If there are questions out there about Google, the Street seems to think they’re about what could happen — government regulation, a misstep with the $12.5 billion Motorola Mobility deal, etc. — than what just happened over the last three months.

Analysts who have been listening to search marketers say they don’t see any real signs of slowdown over the last quarter, even as other ad businesses have been roughed up. (We’ll ignore, for now, an outlier report from Kantar Media which reports a huge and puzzling decrease in paid search.)

As always, there is lots of interesting stuff going on at Google. And, as usual, you can expect Larry Page and company to say very little about it, other than making vague comments about the strength of their core search business, and some acknowledgement that their video, mobile and display ads are starting to become very significant businesses of their own.

In a fantasy world, we’d like to hear Page, et al, talk about what they really think about Facebook, and whether that move to shove Google+ pages into Google search results is as telling as it seems to be. We’d also like to hear more detail about their plans for Motorola, assuming the deal goes through early this year. Don’t hold your breath.

For more grounded speculation, we can consult this cheat sheet from Citi’s Mark Mahaney, which lets you see how different results might move GOOG shares. We continue to find these summaries as useful as ever (click image to enlarge):

Khan has been named co-CEO of Chinese mobile security company NQ Mobile, known until today as NetQin. Khan will lead the company along with current CEO Henry Lin.

Among Khan’s new duties will be helping lead the company’s international expansion — including increasing its presence in North America as well as in areas including Latin America, Europe, Japan and Korea.

“They are already the largest mobile security company in the world,” Khan said in a telephone interview on Thursday. “I’m excited about helping take their technology globally.”

Khan, who will be based in Dallas and starts the new gig on Monday, said that although NetQin has been known for its consumer products, there is a big opportunity in helping businesses deal with all of the workers who want to access corporate data on their smartphones.

Another part of his role will be helping beef up the company’s small team in the United States.

Khan joined Samsung in 2008 as senior VP of strategy and before that was a vice president at Motorola. Although he was at Citi for only six months, Khan said the company had accomplished a lot in a short time and was well positioned in the mobile arena.

“I think Citi has a tremendous opportunity ahead of them as well,” Khan said. “They were very good to me.”

A main attraction: the bank’s top-ranked Internet analyst, Mark Mahaney.

Read the rest of this post on the original site »

It’s not clear if Netflix’s recent series of snafus are Amazon’s gain or not. But in a just-released report by ForeSee, one went up and one went down.

It’s an easy guess which was which.

In the well-known customer satisfaction survey of the Top 40 online retailers during the holiday season — which ForeSee has been conducting twice a year for the last seven years — Amazon rose to its highest spot ever, while Netflix’s score dropped significantly.

Amazon got an 88 out of 100, up two points, while Netflix dropped seven points to 79. The survey noted that “Netflix saw scores drop in every single element of the website that ForeSee measures, including site content, site functionality, merchandise, and prices.”

Ooops.

(Netflix fared better with customers in another poll last week, conducted by Citigroup. As Peter Kafka noted: “They’re less happy than they used to be. But they don’t seem to be going anywhere.”)

But in the ForeSee survey, Netflix moved from being a consumer darling to just another face in the crowd. It garnered the average score, which is also 79, a number that has risen from 74 since 2005.

But Netflix was not the only online retailer hit. Also down: Gap.com (down 6 percent to 73), and Overstock.com (down 5 percent to 72).

But on the up: TigerDirect.com (up 8 percent to 79) and J.C. Penney (up 6 percent to 83).

In general, ForeSee concluded that consumers are starting to get the hang of this e-commerce thing, and have become less price-sensitive, too.

And here’s a pretty chart explaining it all (click on the image to make it larger):

They’re less happy than they used to be. But they don’t seem to be going anywhere.

That’s the cautiously optimistic conclusion of a new survey Citigroup commissioned over the past few months. It finds existing subscribers still fairly pleased with the service Reed Hastings is offering: 57 percent say they’re either “extremely satisfied” or “very satisfied.” But Hastings’ good will has certainly eroded a bit: In May, a similar survey found 50 percent of his customers in the “extremely satisfied” category. That number is now down to 18 percent.

As Citi analyst Mark Mahaney points out, the survey is a bit skewed, since Netflix subscribers who were most disappointed with the service’s changes — a price hike, an ill-fated attempt to spin off its DVD business into a separate unit, and the loss of programming deal that gives the company access to Sony and Disney movies — have already bailed.

But a different survey question suggests one reason customers are sticking around with Netflix: They don’t see many other options.

While Amazon has been building up its catalog of streaming video, only 9 percent of Netflix customers said they’ve watched movies or TV shows there. And while 15 percent said they’ve used Hulu, that number is down from 19 percent in May. Apple’s iTunes comes in at 8 percent. (Perhaps the reason only 27 percent of Netflix subscribers say they use Netflix is because they’re distinguishing between apps and the site. But that seems like a fairly precise distinction for a large number of people to make, so who knows.)

The very big picture is that Mahaney still assumes Netflix will keep growing. He figures its DVD-only subscribers will drop by 800,000, to 9.9 million, over the next year. But he thinks streaming subscribers will increase 9.9 million, to 30.9 million, and that the company will add a few million more as it expands in Latin America and the U.K. He also thinks Netflix will become profitable again by the end of 2012.

But none of that is going to help anyone who bought Netflix stock earlier this year, when shares had climbed as high as $300. Mahaney has lowered his price target for NFLX, and is now hoping it climbs back to $80.

In midday trading, the company’s shares fell 5 percent to $22.09 a share. Even so, that’s up from late last month, when the Chicago company traded as low as $15.24 a share, or roughly half of what some investors paid on day one.

The company is like a student in high school who still needs to push in order to get accepted into an Ivy League school. Even though it’s likely a shoo-in — and it’s already gone public — there’s no leeway for senioritis.

Most of the analysts’ evaluations were concerned about risks, such as the company’s short operating history, the prospects for growth now that it has gotten so large and intense competition coming from peers like LivingSocial, Amazon and Google among many others.

“While much execution lies ahead in order to meet expectations, the opportunity is large and Groupon has competitive advantages,” according to Barclays Capital, which had a neutral rating and a price target of $27.

J.P. Morgan also gave Groupon a neutral rating, but set a lower price target of $24 a share because there was still a lot to do despite its first-mover advantage.

“As subscriber growth slows, we project a major profitability ramp for Groupon over the next two years. However, we believe this ramp is largely anticipated and its magnitude leaves little room for error in execution and operations at current levels,” the analyst wrote.

Citigroup’s Mark Mahaney had the harshest words, saying he was “waiting for a better deal.”

He attributed his neutral stance and $24 price target to the lack of success in the company’s new segments, such as real-time offers, vacation packages and physical goods. “That, we believe, could take significant time to prove out,” Mahaney explained.

Nearly all the analysts were also concerned about the upcoming expiration date for a lock-up period. Expected in May 2012, it would allow some early investors and employees to dump the stock.

In other words, we could see a lot of people cashing in their vouchers right as the offer expires.

But here’s the counterpoint: Search — which means Google — appears to be doing just fine.

Citigroup’s Mark Mahaney has been checking with search marketers, who tell him that Q4 looks a whole lot like the rest of 2011, except maybe a bit better: “Our panel is tracking U.S. Search spend to be up between 15% and 27% Y/Y, rates that are largely in-line with or faster than Q1-Q3 trends.”

Mahaney notes that Efficient Frontier, the search marketer Adobe plans on buying, says its Q4 numbers show a “slight deceleration” from the rest of the year. But compared to the sour faces I’ve seen from some ad guys in recent weeks, that’s fine.

Also of note: Mahaney says that mobile advertising, which has generated lots of hype but not that many dollars, may finally be here, at least when it comes to search. There’s a “a clear consensus that Mobile Search spend is becoming material,” he writes, and will account for 10 percent or more of many search buyers’ spend.

In April, Expedia proposed a plan that would break the business into two public companies.

One would be a travel agency, focused on selling air, hotel and car rentals, and the other would be TripAdvisor, the travel reviews site that operates in 27 countries and 19 languages.

The deal is expected to close on or about Dec. 20, including a one-for-two reverse stock split immediately prior to the spin-off. Expedia will trade under the symbol EXPE and TripAdvisor will trade under TRIP.

Today, the company filed a presentation with the Securities & Exchange Commission detailing Expedia’s standalone growth prospects. The case will be an important one to make given that TripAdvisor is often seen as the more attractive of the two companies.

The Bellevue, Wash.-based company plans to present the slides to various investors and analysts over the next two-and-a-half months.

In the presentation, Expedia lists three major growth opportunities: International expansion, especially in Asia; a greater concentration on hotel bookings, which have higher margins than airplane tickets; and new distribution platforms, such as cellphones and tablets.

Expedia is a traditional travel agency that collects fees when an airfare or hotel room is booked. Meanwhile, TripAdvisor, which aggregates user-generated reviews, produces revenue from advertising, as well as fees when users book through other sites, such as Priceline or Orbitz.

In the quarter ended in September, TripAdvisor’s revenue jumped by 30 percent compared to the same period a year earlier. Meanwhile, Expedia’s revenues rose only 14 percent.

Additionally, the company is breaking up as it faces increasing competition from Google, which has started integrating the technology of ITA, a travel software company it acquired, into its search results.

Expedia’s stock today is trading at $28.65, up 61 cents.

We still view GOOG’s acquisition of the football coaching headphone equipment company as highly risky, but given signs that Amazon & Facebook may also enter the Smartphone market, GOOG’s move isn’t unprecedented.

– Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney, who is upgrading his Google rating to “buy” from “neutral,” despite his lack of enthusiasm for the $12.5 billion Motorola deal. On the bright side, he adds, if regulators approve the purchase next year, it will “still provide GOOG with patent support, & it’s an accretive deal.”

“Based on our supply chain channel checks in Asia led by Kevin Chang, Citi’s Taipei-based hardware research analyst, we believe an Amazon Smartphone will be launched in 4Q12. Based on our supply chain check, we believe FIH is now jointly developing the phone with Amazon. However, we believe that Amazon will pay NRE (non-recurring engineering fees) to FIH but the device and multiple components will actually be manufactured by Hon Hai’s TMS business group (the same business group that makes Amazon’s E-reader and the 8.9” Amazon tablet). We believe the smartphone will adopt Texas Instrument’s OMAP 4 processor and is very likely to adopt QCOM’s dual mode 6-series standalone baseband given QCOM has been a long-time baseband supplier for Amazon’s E-reader.”

Mahaney and his team guess that Amazon’s phone may cost it $150 to $170 to build, and it’s conceivable that the company will sell it for something close to that price: “For a normal brand like HTC, they need to price the product at US$243 to make 30% gross margin. If Amazon is actually willing to lose some money on the device, the price gap could be even bigger.”

Mahaney’s note doesn’t spell out that the phone will use Google’s Android operating system, but it suggests that will be the case by positing that Amazon will need to pay Microsoft an “OS royalty” — Microsoft has recently been able to extract royalty payments from other Android hardware partners.

But not so fast. Before we can get there, we need to review some history, then engage in some speculation.

First, the past: Way, way back in 2000, EMI was supposed to merge with Warner Music Group. But the deal, which would have created a company that controlled 25 percent of the world’s music market, didn’t fly with European regulators.

And since Universal is the world’s biggest music label, and the new combination will create a company with about 40 percent of the world’s music market, you’d think antitrust types would have a problem with this one, too. (Maybe even in the U.S., which has usually let most industries consolidate, but recently perked up when it came to AT&T’s proposed T-Mobile deal.)

Bear in mind that back in 2000, there were five major music labels. Since then Sony swallowed up BMG, so we’re down to four. And Universal wants to shrink it down to three.

Universal’s answer, of course, will be that today’s music business looks nothing like it did 11 years ago when Britney Spears was selling millions of CDs, Napster was a novelty, and Apple’s iTunes store didn’t exist. Most important: Back then, music sales were a $37 billion business. By the end of last year, that number was down to $16 billion.

But simply arguing that the pie is smaller won’t convince regulators. If Universal is really going to get this deal done, it’s almost certainly going to sell off some pieces, particularly in markets like Germany and France, where a combined EMI/UMG could end up with something like 80 percent of the music market.

I think it will also work very hard to convince people that even the world’s biggest music label doesn’t have any power when it comes to Apple, which controls the world’s digital music market.

That part won’t be that hard, because it’s at least partly true. But it will still be interesting to see Universal, which has longstanding ties to Apple, go out of its way to publicly complain about the relationship, without actually straining it for real.

And in any case we’re going to have quite some time to watch this one develop. EMI CEO Roger Faxon told his staff yesterday that approvals, etc., for the split-up could go “well past” March 31, 2012, when EMI’s fiscal year ends. Music industry folks assume that a realistic timetable would be closer to 12 months from now.

[Image via Jason Mrachina]

So let’s take a minute to praise a big music label for something that — on paper, at least — looks pretty flexible and clever. EMI Music is offering developers a way to leapfrog onerous licensing negotiations and just start building cool stuff with the label’s songs.

The idea: Developers building an application that needs music can sign up for access to a “sandbox” which will let them play with a pool of the label’s songs. And after a minimium of hoop-jumping, the “OpenEMI” plan is supposed to let developers bring their stuff directly to market, without having to track down rights holders, negotiate rates, etc.

EMI has precleared a selection of about 12,000 songs — 2,000 from its general catalog, another 10,000 from its Blue Note jazz label, and a few artist-specific catalogs from bands like Gorillaz and the Pet Shop Boys — and has worked out a standardized fee for all of them, via a revenue split.

The label takes 60 percent of net revenue and uses that to pay rights holders; 40 percent is split between developers and the Echo Nest, a Boston-based music tech company that helped cobble the deal together and which provides developers with tools they might use to build their apps. EMI and Echo Nest say developers should end up with the lion’s share of that 40 percent.

Given that Citigroup, which ended up owning EMI after financing a disastrous private equity deal, may or may not be selling the company any day, it’s always possible that this kind of offer may disappear if and when new management shows up.

And there are a few catches, but they seem doable — for instance, the deal requires EMI to act as the publisher for any apps that eventually make it to venues like Apple’s iTunes or Google’s Android Market. So, at least on paper, it looks like an attractive way for developers to get their hands on music without having to worry about breaking the law or hiring lawyers.

The program won’t do you any good if you want music that EMI doesn’t own. And a pool of 12,000 songs won’t do you any good if you’re trying to create a comprehensive music service like Spotify, which features some 15 million songs. Instead, think of applications that incorporate music, like Disney’s Tapulous, or any other Rock Band-like game. Developers might eventually want to use music that isn’t in EMI’s pool, but it seems plenty deep enough to get going.

But now we’ll get Reed Hastings’s own report card, when Netflix announces its quarterly earnings this afternoon.

As Citigroup’s Mark Mahaney notes, the key numbers to look for aren’t the Q3 metrics — the company has already preannounced that its subscriber numbers are going to be lower than it initially thought — but its guidance for the rest of the year.

That’s where we’ll be able to see the impact of its many stumbles — the price hike, the broken Starz deal, Qwikster’s New Coke moment — or at least what Netflix thinks the impact will be. If Netflix subscribers are really bailing out — and not just threatening to do so on Hastings’s Facebook page — you should be able to see that reflected in its expectations for the next three months.

Remember that shortly after Netflix dropped its first bomb this summer — a 60 percent price hike for many of its customers — management predicted that it would suffer a subscriber blip in Q3, but would recover by Q4. Let’s see if they’ve hung on to that confidence.

Here are Mahaney’s best guesses for Netflix’s Q3 results and Q4 guidance, along with Wall Street’s estimates (click image to enlarge). I’ll be covering the results live at 4 pm ET.

Note that Mahaney isn’t changing his estimates for these companies’ financial performance — just the way he thinks the market will value them, “primarily to global Macro conditions.”

Still, it’s worth noting some of his specific concerns for some companies that go beyond “the world economy has the circle-the-drain-quality to it.”

AOL: Citi drops its target from $18 to $15 (it’s now trading around $12). “In Q2, we witnessed YHOO, WBMD and AOL report lower Display revenue, which could be signs of increased competition from ad networks and social media for premium ad dollars.”

Demand: Target dropped from $10 to $8, which is about where the stock is trading now. “We view the company’s reliance on Google traffic as still a bit of an overhang. And we believe DMD’s quality content strategy is still something of a work-in-progress.”

Google: Target dropped from $690 to $575, currently trading around $504. “The return on GOOG’s prior investments (Mobile, Display) have been very good, but the return on GOOG’s new investments (Social, Commerce, Local, and now, in a BIG way, Mobile) are still uncertain — and the social investments ARE catch-up defensive; 2) cost structure still not ‘under control’; and 3) increasing regulatory risk.”

Check out this engagement chart, courtesy of Citigroup’s Mark Mahaney. It’s a neat illustration of the Web 2.0 era, and does a nice job of explaining why Google is so freaked out about Facebook, and why AOL and Yahoo seem to be in eternal turnaround mode. (Note that just a couple of years ago, someone might have thought to include Myspace in here. Remember?)

So says a new Citigroup survey of 1,800 consumers in the U.S., the U.K. and China. The research offers lots of interesting data points about tablet adoption in general (summary: Still an iPad market, not a tablet market) and we might come back to some of those later on. For now, a few things that will interest people who pay attention to the media business.

For instance:

All tablet users use apps (of course), but iPad owners are much more likely to pay. Citi says 81 percent of iPad owners report that they’ve paid for an app, while only 43 percent of the users of “other” tablets (read: Android) have done so.

But all tablet owners are still most interested in free stuff:

People who plan on buying a tablet are most likely to do so because they think it’s a cool toy. That’s even more true now than it was last year.

And people who have bought a tablet don’t end up doing much work on it, unless Web surfing and email count as work (which, admittedly, could be the case):

And while Netflix CEO Reed Hastings says the iPad isn’t a big deal for his users, they seem to disagree — nearly a third of them use the service on their device.

In the end — the bitter end, that is — there really is no good time to fire someone.

But the timing of the ouster of Carol Bartz as CEO of Yahoo is one of the more curious things about the corporate mishegas at the Silicon Valley Internet giant of late.

That included drastically moving up the clock on Bartz, which was not part of a plan until recently. In fact, several sources were told only last month by Yahoo board members that evaluation of her status — her contract ended at the beginning of 2013 — would not take place until the end of 2011.

That obviously changed.

And, because it is Yahoo — which never met a crisis situation it could not hopelessly complexify — there are numerous and conflicting accounts about the reasons it was done so quickly and abruptly.

They include the board’s feeling that Bartz had not responded to their requests for a credible strategic plan; worries that she would not ever meet annual performance goals, including improving its stock price; upcoming weak third-quarter numbers, which will continue a troublesome downward trend in Yahoo’s key advertising business; and, perhaps most intriguingly, the need to make a move before it was revealed that another activist investor, this time Third Point’s Daniel Loeb, had decided to target Bartz and the Yahoo board.

One thing is certain: The firing of Bartz was messier than it needed to be, mostly because several sources said she was caught unawares.

“She did not know it was happening, even if she probably should have seen it coming,” said one person familiar with the situation. “And she had no allies at the company to warn her, either.”

Indeed, at the time Bartz was fired over the phone by Chairman Roy Bostock — who had until late this summer been her fervent supporter — she was set to appear at a high-profile Citigroup investor conference in New York.

“It had to happen then, because you can’t put a CEO in front of investors and analysts and then fire her soon after,” said one person close to the situation.

Actually, former Yahoo CEO Terry Semel stepped down only days after appearing at the company’s annual meeting and telling the gathering he was in for the long haul.

The Loeb problem also played a part. According to several sources, while Loeb did not surface until after Bartz’s firing, several directors and Silicon Valley players were aware of his plans to target Yahoo.

While Loeb was not the more heavyweight threat that activist investor Carl Icahn had been in the past, sources said he was planning to call for Bartz’s firing, as well as a board re-do.

The large part of the reason for letting her go finally, of course, centered on not meeting performance goals set by the board.

While the overhaul of a hairball of systems and a rejiggering of staff was quickly done by the longtime and experienced manager, the turnaround and renewed product innovation promised by Bartz was slow in coming.

In addition, advertising sales results had worsened and recent quarterly reports showed little progress.

To remedy the situation, directors had asked Bartz to present a strategic plan earlier this year, which she did with the help of top execs. It further underscored the idea of Yahoo as a top-level digital media company.

But the board pressed for more details and felt Bartz was not the right exec to carry out the kind of dramatic renewal of Yahoo that is needed.

Looming, too, was the third-quarter earnings results on October 18, which sources said will show continued weakness at Yahoo.

For that, it’s likely the fired Bartz will get the blame, giving the board — which is also being criticized by large shareholders and others — a bit of breathing room as it figures out what to do next.

In other words, with no good news to report, the Yahoo board decided to deliver some bad news to Bartz.

(In related news, according to an 8-K filing by the company, interim Yahoo CEO and also CFO Tim Morse got a small bump in base salary from $600,000 to $750,000, effective September 15, 2011.)

And here is a video I did on WSJ.com’s Digits show yesterday about the buyer interest in Yahoo I previously wrote about, as well as its weak board:

By the end of the day’s trading, the restaurant booking site had regained some ground, closing down only eight percent, or $5.23 to $57.50 a share.

But at least one analyst called the market’s bluff, concluding that the purchase did not mean Google was interested in competing with OpenTable.

OpenTable currently accounts for 10 percent of all diners who end up being seated in a restaurant, while Google mostly gains customer reviews and surveys from Zagat.

“The risk here … is that this marks Google’s attempt to compete directly with OpenTable in the Restaurant Reservation segment. For now, we don’t believe it,” wrote Citigroup’s Mark Mahaney in a note to clients. “Although Google has thrown a few surprises by us recently, we see it as highly unlikely that Google would want to enter the salesforce-intensive/truck-roll/hardware & software-install Restaurant Reservation business.”

Mahaney also noted that there’s little risk that traffic to OpenTable will fall because of the deal.

Today, only five to 10 percent of all reservations come from third-party networks like Yelp, Google, Yahoo, Zagat, etc. OpenTable, for example, is the exclusive restaurant reservation service on Zagat. Another review site, UrbanSpoon, was purchased by IAC two years ago. IAC, which owns a very diverse portfolio of businesses, saw its stock sink 15 cents today to close at $39.53.

Citigroup reiterated its buy and said its current price target is $82 a share.

The purchase of Zagat is likely a bigger blow to Yelp, which is still seeking an exit of its own after turning down a half-billion-dollar offer from Google two years ago. The companies are not completely alike. Yelp has been fairly successful in gaining a very broad audience, especially since Zagat charges for many of its publications and mobile applications — a very un-Google approach.

Google said this morning that Zagat will work closely with its search and maps divisions, but it also would make sense for it to work closely with Google Offers, which is trying to be the local deals equivalent to Groupon.

Jive has more or less been telegraphing its IPO intentions since it hired Tony Zingale as its CEO last year. Zingale is the former head of Mercury Interactive who engineered its $4.5 billion sale to Hewlett-Packard in 2006. Then in March it bulked up its board with a slate of directors who all have public company experience, among them Dave Dewalt, the former president of McAfee, and Google’s Sundar Pichai. Heck, Jive has even been acting like a public company, making the occasional acquisition — two in the last several months.

The way Bloomberg tells it, Jive is being valued at $1 billion and would offer a stake worth 10 to 20 percent in the company in the IPO. And research firm Gartner pegs its annual revenue at $70 million. It’s the leader in the social enterprise software field, which is all about making the workplace more collaborative by making office applications more social, a la Facebook, Twitter and the like. (In fact, one of Jive’s newest directors is Jonathan Heiliger, VP of technical operations at Facebook.)

There’s been a lot of action in this space of late, beginning with Salesforce.com’s launch of Chatter at the start of the year with a pair of TV ads during the Super Bowl. Other players have either been growing like crazy and raising boatloads of cash (example: Yammer) or have been acquired (example: Socialcast.)

(I caught up with Zingale for a quick chat at the D9 conference in June. See the video below.)

This deal would amount to another big win for Morgan, which has led the IPOs of LinkedIn and Pandora, among others. An IPO would probably bring a nice payout to Sequoia Capital and Kleiner Perkins, which have plunked down $57 million in venture capital funding.

I called Jive to see if anyone there would comment and got zilch, but what do you expect from a company that’s going IPO? Not that I blame them. With investment bank lawyers skulking around every corner, everyone gets too nervous to so much as confirm the time of day. It made me think of the old Bee Gees hit “Jive Talkin’,” which I’ve shared with you — and hereby dedicate to the employees of Jive Software as they go through this process. No one at Jive is talking. Get it?

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20110817/jive-software-said-to-hire-ipo-bankers-but-no-one-there-is-talking/feed/ 0 http://allthingsd.com/20110726/netflix-says-its-surprised-customers-havent-complained-more/ http://allthingsd.com/20110726/netflix-says-its-surprised-customers-havent-complained-more/#comments Tue, 26 Jul 2011 11:11:53 +0000 Peter Kafka http://allthingsd.com/?p=102569 After Netflix announced a big price increase this month, angry customers bellowed into the Internet and promised that they’d quit the service. And Netflix is taking them seriously: It says reaction to the new prices will slow its subscriber growth next quarter, when the changes kick in.

That disclosure sent the company’s stock tumbling nearly 10 percent after the market closed. But Reed Hastings and company don’t seem to be sweating.

The real surprise, they say, is that Netflix customers aren’t more upset.

“Believe it or not, the noise level was actually less than we expected, given a 60 percent price increase for some subscribers,” Hastings said on yesterday’s earnings call, answering a question about the outpouring of outrage on the Web. “We knew what we were getting into, we tried to be as straightforward as we could, and that has worked out very well for us.”

What Hastings isn’t saying out loud, but is saying via the financial guidance the company is offering: Chill out. Relax. We know what we’re doing.

Netflix told Wall Street that it expects to see as much as $829 million in revenue next quarter. But as Citigroup’s Mark Mahaney notes, the relatively modest subscriber projections Netflix is offering for the end of Q3 — 25 million in the U.S., 15 million of them still using DVDs — puts the company on track to do a $1 billion quarter. Which is what it suggests it will do in Q4, for the first time in its history.

Essentially, Hastings is betting that subscriber growth returns to normal levels in Q4 — whoever is really dissatisfied with the pricing will have already bailed, while new customers won’t notice the change. And then he’ll see a real benefit from the price hike, which will affect the majority of his customers — DVD use has peaked, the company says, but it’s not going away overnight.

It seems to me that the real risk for Hastings isn’t consumer reaction to his price increase, which he can probably forecast fairly effectively. Netflix prides itself on the deep data insights it can mine from its customers.

What he can’t predict is the way the Hollywood studios will behave as he attempts to license new content for his streaming service and renegotiate his Starz deal, which expires early next year. If those deals aren’t successful and Hastings can’t grow his catalog of movies and TV shows, then the price he’s offering won’t matter that much.

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20110726/netflix-says-its-surprised-customers-havent-complained-more/feed/ 0 http://allthingsd.com/20110725/netflix-q2-light-on-revenue-beats-earnings/ http://allthingsd.com/20110725/netflix-q2-light-on-revenue-beats-earnings/#comments Mon, 25 Jul 2011 20:04:01 +0000 Peter Kafka http://allthingsd.com/?p=102343 A quick first look at the Netflix Q2: Revenue of $788.6 million, earnings of $1.26 a share; Wall Street was looking for $791.5 million and earnings of $1.11 per share. Analysts are unlikely to be happy with the company’s guidance for the next quarter, though.

Some important metrics to pay attention to:
24.59 million U.S. subscribers, plus another 1 million in Canada. That’s in line with exepectations.
Projected subscribers in Q3: Up to 27 million, which is a little lighter than analysts were looking for.

Q3 revenue guidance: Up to $828 million, which will again disappoint Wall Street.
Q3 EPS guidance: From $0.72 to $1.07 per share, also lower than expectations.

Not surprisingly, shares are down initially, dropping more than 7 percent after hours.

Reed Hastings seems to indicate that some of the shortfall is because of its recent price hike, which is meant to push subscribers away from DVD rentals and toward streaming: “Because of the timing of the price change, revenues will only grow slightly on a sequential basis”.

Hastings does say that he won’t completely abandon DVDs, though, noting that he’ll start marketing the DVD-only service in the last three months of the year, “something we haven’t done for many quarters.” By the end of Q3, he says, Netflix will have 10 million streaming-only customers in the U.S., 3 million DVD-only customers, and another 12 million who will get both formats.

Netflix has pushed up the operating losses it expects to incur from international expansion this year from $70 million to $80 million; that’s the second time the company has bumped that number up.

Netflix also says it is not bidding on Hulu, but that’s no surprise.

As always, here’s Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney’s “cheat sheet” so you can play along at home. Pay particular attention to subscription growth projections (click chart to enlarge).

The Netflix earnings call starts at 6pm eastern; I’ll be back then to listen in and will update if needed.

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20110725/netflix-q2-light-on-revenue-beats-earnings/feed/ 0 http://allthingsd.com/20110714/google-earnings-today-love-to-hear-from-you-larry/ http://allthingsd.com/20110714/google-earnings-today-love-to-hear-from-you-larry/#comments Thu, 14 Jul 2011 10:39:38 +0000 Peter Kafka http://allthingsd.com/?p=98037 Hey Larry! How are you?

Come on in! Take a seat! Tell us how things are going!

No? Gotta run?

OK, then. See you in three months …

That’s a replay, more or less, of Google’s earnings call last quarter, the first one under the Larry Page regime.

Lots of folks thought it might be nice to hear what the new boss had to say about his company, but Page didn’t play along. He showed up for the first few minutes, muttered 370 nondescriptive words, and took off.

You can argue, convincingly, that Larry Page is the co-founder of a really, really successful company, and that if he doesn’t want to follow Wall Street tradition — like sticking around for the duration of his earnings call — he shouldn’t have to.

Still, Google’s stock did plummet after that call, and has yet to recover, even after a post-Google+ runup.

It’s much more likely that Google shares dropped because Wall Street is more worried about the company’s spending, and competition from Facebook, than about Page’s presentational skills. But wouldn’t it be nice to remove that bit of uncertainty from the equation?

As usual, here’s Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney’s “cheat sheet” for today’s proceedings, so you can play along at home. The market is looking for revenues of $6.54 billion and earnings of $7.87; given last quarter’s performance, it’s reasonable to assume investors will also be looking closely at capital expenditures and margins. (Click image to enlarge).

Also as usual, many of us will hope to hear more about Google’s efforts beyond its core search business — YouTube, mobile and now social. That information doesn’t have to come from Page, of course. But if he wants to speak up, we won’t complain.

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20110714/google-earnings-today-love-to-hear-from-you-larry/feed/ 0 http://allthingsd.com/20110711/samsung-exec-khan-leaving-for-mobile-post-at-citi/ http://allthingsd.com/20110711/samsung-exec-khan-leaving-for-mobile-post-at-citi/#comments Mon, 11 Jul 2011 15:48:31 +0000 Ina Fried http://allthingsd.com/?p=96104 Samsung Mobile executive Omar Khan is leaving to take a role overseeing mobile efforts at Citigroup.

Samsung confirmed Khan’s departure in a statement on Monday morning.

“Omar Khan was a valued member of the Samsung Mobile US team but has decided to leave Samsung Mobile to pursue another opportunity,” the cellphone maker said. “Omar is not leaving to join a competitor to Samsung, and we anticipate having a continued relationship with him once he settles into his new role.”

As for Khan’s duties, most of them will fall to Tim Rowden, Samsung said, while the job of being the public spokesperson for the Korean firm’s U.S. arm will be assumed by Nick Dicarlo and Gavin Kim.

Khan joined Samsung Mobile in 2008 as Senior VP of strategy, leaving a post as a vice president at Motorola.

Word of Khan’s departure was first published Sunday evening by Android-related site The Droid Guy.

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20110711/samsung-exec-khan-leaving-for-mobile-post-at-citi/feed/ 0 http://allthingsd.com/20110621/billing-revolution-gets-funding-from-citi-for-mobile-payments-service/ http://allthingsd.com/20110621/billing-revolution-gets-funding-from-citi-for-mobile-payments-service/#comments Tue, 21 Jun 2011 23:12:51 +0000 Tricia Duryee http://allthingsd.com/?p=89249 Billing Revolution, which has launched a mobile billing platform called Single-Click Checkout, has raised additional capital from its partner, Citigroup. The undisclosed investment is from Citi Ventures and follows a $6.6 million second round of funding from DCM and SK Telecom Ventures last month.

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