In a note to clients this morning the analyst claims that the precipitous drop in PlayBook shipments that forced manufacturing partner Quanta to sack more than 1,000 employees was actually part of a broader move by RIM to reassess its plans for the tablet market.

“We believe RIM has stopped production of its PlayBook and is actively considering exiting the tablet market,” Vihn said. “While Quanta last week acknowledged that it had laid off a significant number of production workers from a factory focused on producing the PlayBook, our research indicates that the ODM has essentially halted production of the tablet. Additionally, our due diligence indicates that RIMM has canceled development of additional tablet projects.”

Interesting, particularly since Collins Stewart’s claim follows the decision of a number of retailers to heavily discount the PlayBook. That said, Vinh is a chip analyst who covers Cypress Semiconductor, which makes parts for the PlayBook. He doesn’t actively cover RIM. An important caveat to remember when mulling his report.

Oh, and there’s that other caveat: RIM’s unequivocal denial. “RIM doesn’t typically comment on rumors, but any suggestion that the BlackBerry PlayBook is being discontinued is pure fiction,” the company said in a statement. “RIM remains highly committed to the tablet market.”

It’s a mixed bag. While they all seem to agree that HP’s board is right to push out CEO Léo Apotheker, especially in light of the stock performance, a confused strategy and a jarring change in emphasis, none seem ready to endorse the ascendance of Meg Whitman, the former eBay CEO and current HP director, to that company’s top job. Yet like it or not, the HP board meeting that will make it all official is underway, and as AllThingsD has reported, Meg Whitman will be named HP’s CEO at the close of markets today.

Toni Sacconaghi of SanfordBernstein, the author of a widely circulated note last week describing how “exasperated” HP investors are, weighed in again. “We are not surprised by HP’s stock’s reaction yesterday, given that our conversations with shareholders and investors over the past month revealed a level of exasperation that we have not seen directed at HP or any other company in our universe in our 13 years following the sector,” he wrote in a note today.

He also slammed HP’s board. “Our conversations with major shareholders also indicate that they have been disgruntled with the board, given it has made and approved a series of decisions” — including the ouster of the prior CEO Mark Hurd, the Autonomy deal, the premature announcement of the PC-spinout — “that many shareholders believe were poor decisions and misaligned with their interests,” he wrote.

Nor is he a fan of the Whitman hiring. HP needs to search far and wide and also internally for another CEO, Sacconaghi says. “We would view any decision not to conduct a comprehensive search of internal and external candidates for a permanent CEO role as unsatisfactory and unnecessarily hasty,” he wrote. “We also believe that shareholder reaction to Whitman as a permanent CEO would be mixed.” He also thinks CFO Cathie Lesjak, notable for filling in as interim CEO during the Hurd-to-Apotheker transition, may be leaving.

Shaw Wu of Sterne Agee is pretty much in agreement with Sacconaghi. “Given the disappointing financial performance over the last few quarters and some questionable decision making including the high purchase price of Autonomy, handling of the spinoff of its PC operation, and abrupt shutdown of its webOS hardware business, we are frankly not surprised that a change is being considered,” he wrote in a note to clients today. “So far, investors and even some customers we have talked to don’t seem confident in where HPQ is heading so a change is likely needed.”

But he’s not sold on Whitman. “While we believe she has proven to be a very capable manager helping grow eBay from a start-up into one of the largest internet companies, we think an ideal candidate for HPQ should have extensive experience in the enterprise market. In addition, we believe expertise in supply chain management would be helpful as well.” He goes on to name a handful of insiders and outsiders he’d consider possible successors: Dave Donatelli, who runs HP’s enterprise business; Todd Bradley, who runs the personal systems group and would be a likely CEO of that unit if it’s spun out; Steve Mills, who runs software and hardware at IBM; and Gary Moore, the COO of Cisco Systems.

Wu also says it might be a good idea for HP to keep its PC unit after all is said and done. “We estimate the business generates $2 billion in operating income per year and is the second most profitable behind Apple,” he wrote. Also the PC business isn’t so bad when you think of it as being one and the same with the tablet market. He maintained a neutral rating on HP for now.

Lou Miscioscia of Collins Stewart isn’t encouraged by the shake-up, either. Many of HP’s problems aren’t necessarily Apotheker’s fault, he says in a note to clients issued today. And he’s not sold on Whitman, arguing that she’s never run so large a company as HP and has never run one focused on the enterprise before. He maintained a neutral rating.

And while a post-Apotheker HP may undo some of his decisions, like spinning off the PC business, one thing it probably can’t do is walk away from its $10 billion purchase of Autonomy Software, says Jeffries and Co. analyst Peter Misek. Corporate takeovers are governed by strict laws in the U.K., making it nearly impossible for HP to pull out of the deal now. He rates HP shares a buy.

Sony Ericsson

Wireless handset maker Sony-Ericsson just issued a statement on the extent of disruptions it expects.

“Although the full impact of the current situation on our business will take additional time to assess, Sony Ericsson anticipates disruption to its supply chain operations,” the company said in a statement. “As part of our business continuity plan, we are in contact with all our key suppliers in the region and we are identifying the possible relocation of certain component manufacturing, and looking at secondary sources of supply.”

Intel and Qualcomm

Some analysts had speculated that plant shutdowns by Mitsubishi Gas would slow chip production by cutting supplies of certain chemicals used in the chip making process. Both Intel and Qualcomm told Bloomberg News that they’re careful to avoid situations where important supplies come from only one source.

Texas Instruments

Wireless chipmaker Texas Instruments said on Monday that a plant in Miho, about 40 miles northeast of Tokyo, had suffered “substantial damage” and that it may be July before the plant is back up to full production. The plant is responsible for about 10 percent of TI’s overall production, and about a third of its capacity is devoted to its Digital Light Processor, and the rest to analog components. Shares of Diodes, Inc., a TI rival, jumped when analyst John Vinh of Collins Stewart said the company stood to benefit from TI’s troubles.

Oracle

Analyst Derrick Wood of Susquehanna Financial said in a note to clients that fears about Oracle’s exposure to the Japanese market, which has driven the shares down in recent days, are probably overblown. Even though Japan accounts for about five percent of Oracle’s revenue, he said, fears are “likely overdone.” Most of Oracle’s revenue from Japan comes from recurring maintenance fees, so the risk of a serious hit to sales is minimal.

Raw Materials

The Wall Street Journal notes that Japan supplies about 90 percent of the world’s bismaleimide triazine, an important material used in making printed circuit boards for wireless phones. Japan also supplies much of the world’s silicon wafers that are used to make chips.

(Map via Wikimedia Commons)

Collins Stewart telecom analyst Greg Miller this morning noted that the industry “continues to slow at a surprisingly fast rate.” The first quarter, he says, could market the first-ever period of negative net subscriber additions in the history of the industry.

For AT&T (T), he cut his forecast for post-paid net adds to 499,000 from 632,000 for Q1, and to 2.607 million from 2.976 million for 2010.

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In a note to clients this morning, Eagan writes that investors may rotate out of Comcast if the company decides to invest $12 billion to $14 billion for a stake in GE’s (GE) NBC-Universal, as rumored. The latest buzz on that deal is that it has a 50/50 chance of happening, according to a piece in the Wall Street Journal this morning.

If Comcast were to take a 51 percent stake in NBC-U, Comcast’s revenue from content would jump from 4.5% of the firm’s total sales to 30 percent, writes Eagan.

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Kumar says that despite being positioned as a flagship product at Sprint (S), Palm shipped under 300,000 units in May and June. He says the company ramped up production aggressively in July when shipments exceeded build levels in the previous two months, but that the “momentum appears to have already peaked.”

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Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected Intel (INTC) to report revenue of $7.3 billion and a profit of eight cents per share. Instead the company reported revenue of $8 billion and non-GAAP profits of 18 cents (PDF). And it predicted third-quarter revenue above Wall Street’s expectations.

In a statement, CEO Paul Otellini said the results “reflect improving conditions in the PC market segment with our strongest first- to second-quarter growth since 1988 and a clear expectation for a seasonally stronger second half.”

Now admittedly, Intel did post earnings of 28 cents a share in the same period last year. So its fortunes clearly declined in the months that followed. That said, the company appears to be on the rebound after hitting the bottom Otellini declared back in April.

“Basically, very strong numbers for the quarter and guidance is in line with seasonal trends,” Collins Stewart analyst Ashok Kumar told Reuters.” It’s an extremely strong number given the macro economic backdrop. Despite those headwinds, the company delivered significant upside to both guidance as well as as expectations. The big unknown is whether it’s anything more than inventory replenishment.”

Intel shares are on the upswing on the news.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected Intel (INTC) to report revenue of $7.3 billion and a profit of eight cents per share. Instead the company reported revenue of $8 billion and non-GAAP profits of 18 cents (PDF). And it predicted third-quarter revenue above Wall Street’s expectations.

In a statement, CEO Paul Otellini said the results “reflect improving conditions in the PC market segment with our strongest first- to second-quarter growth since 1988 and a clear expectation for a seasonally stronger second half.”

Now admittedly, Intel did post earnings of 28 cents a share in the same period last year. So its fortunes clearly declined in the months that followed. That said, the company appears to be on the rebound after hitting the bottom Otellini declared back in April.

“Basically, very strong numbers for the quarter and guidance is in line with seasonal trends,” Collins Stewart analyst Ashok Kumar told Reuters.” It’s an extremely strong number given the macro economic backdrop. Despite those headwinds, the company delivered significant upside to both guidance as well as as expectations. The big unknown is whether it’s anything more than inventory replenishment.”

Intel shares are on the upswing on the news.

So, a 50-50 chance for a deal. Sounds about right, with Carol Bartz the wild card that could swing the odds as quickly and easily as she drops the F-bomb and with Microsoft as the desperate gambler looking to win back the deed to the search market it lost. Said Citi’s Mark S. Mahaney, “Although we view the likelihood of a major transaction as unlikely near-term, we continue to view Yahoo as the only logical long-term acquisition target for any company seeking scale in Internet advertising.”

Kumar contends that Apple will gain share in the smart phone segment from both Research In Motion (RIMM) and Microsoft (MSFT) Windows Mobile. He also writes that Google (GOOG) Android is “positioned to be a winner” in the sector.

So back to Apple. Kumar says that a low bill of materials should enable Apple to hit a $99 price point on an 8GB iPhone, stimulating demand. He says a launch with China Mobile (CHL) “is an additional near-term catalyst.” Further out, he thinks the launch of what he calls the “iPhone nano” in the first half of 2010 should help Apple further expand its share of the smart phone segment.

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At least in part, the Street is reacting to this morning’s downgrade of Marvell (MRVL) by Barclays Capital, which–as I noted earlier–was in response to indications from Taiwanese component makers of a slowdown PC demand. Barclays chip analyst Romit Shah wrote that “every company that we met with [in Taiwan] indicated that PC order rates are slowing into the back-to-school season.”

Meanwhile, Collins Stewart analyst Ashok Kumar today notes new data on drive production that he thinks raises ominous clouds for Seagate in particular. Kumar says data from Techno Systems Research, a Japan-based market research firm, find that hard-drive unit production was down 18 percent sequentially in the March quarter, comparable to a 15 percent decline in PC shipments.

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Brand new MySpace CEO Owen Van Natta started things off Monday with his first day on the job. He was joined by new COO and former AOL exec Mike Jones and new chief product officer and former Sling Media exec Jason Hirschhorn. Down in Los Angeles at the AlwaysOn OnHollywood conference, Boomtown ran smack into Huff Post mastermind Arianna Huffington, who extolled the virtues and abilities of new managing editor Jai Singh, former editor-in-chief of CNET Networks. At AOL, in preparation for spinning off the Time Warner (TWX) Online unit, new CEO Tim Armstrong began appointing new senior execs and spinning off existing ones. Platform-A president and former Yahoo (YHOO) sales exec Greg Coleman, who joined the AOL team in February, is leaving the company, to be replaced by Jeff Levick, who is leaving Google (GOOG)–where he had a close relationship with Armstrong. CFO Nisha Kumar is also leaving AOL, and a search is underway for her replacement. MediaMemo has more on Time Warner’s decision to spin off AOL. A number of Flickr engineers were laid off Wednesday, but Chief Architect Cal Henderson has left the company of his own accord and is working on a stealth start-up with Flickr co-founder Stewart Butterfield. Last, but not least, one of the voices covering the digital scene has found a new gig. Owen Thomas, self-described “scourge of [Silicon] Valley,” is leaving Valleywag to head up GE (GE) unit NBC Universal’s new “Bay Area” Web site, whose motto is “Locals Only.” He’ll be replaced by fresh-faced Ryan Tate, recently the night editor for Gawker. Both reporters talked to BoomTown on Friday about the changes.

MediaMemo wrote on Monday about Condé Nast shutting down Portfolio–both the print magazine and the accompanying Web site. On a cautionary note, MM outlined the reasons why Portfolio’s business magazine peers should not celebrate the loss of a competitor, even (or especially) during tough economic times. Is the meteoric ascension of Twitter flattening out? According to a Nielsen Online study, 60 percent of Twitter’s users leave after a month. This was met with a lot of skepticism so Nielsen ran the numbers again with the same results–and this time it’s sticking with them. MediaMemo also had an explanation for why the long-awaited deal between Disney (DIS) and Hulu took months and months and millions of dollars to finally come together. Digital Daily had more on that story.

Digital Daily also had more info on the ever-evolving Palm (PALM) Pre story. First, a rumor that Palm plans to launch the handset on June 7–which would be crazy, given the fact that June 8 is both the first day of Apple’s (AAPL) Worldwide Developers Conference and the day that those in the know expect the next-generation iPhone to drop. Then, there’s an assertion by Collins Stewart analyst Ashok Kumar based on supply chain research that Palm has greatly reduced its production numbers. Time will have to tell, though, because Palm certainly isn’t talking yet. Of course, things could be worse. Dell (DELL) hasn’t even solidified plans for its rumored smartphone, and already, no one really cares.

Dell’s new Adamo laptop and Studio One 19 desktop aren’t causing much excitement either. In this week’s Personal Technology column, Walt Mossberg reports that although both machines look good and function well, neither is groundbreaking. In Mossberg’s Mailbox, Walt answered readers’ questions about improving performance on a PC, using peripheral devices with an iPhone and installing Apple’s OS X on a Windows machine. And in this week’s Mossberg Solution, Katie Boehret tested three apps from the iTunes App Store that make it possible for the iPod touch to function like an iPhone.

More next week.

Collins Stewart analyst Ashok Kumar claims that his supply chain checks indicate that Palm has “drastically reduced its production orders” for the Pre. Kumar says “multiple hardware and software issues” have forced Palm’s hand here and that he doesn’t expect the company to meet its expected goal of one million units shipped in the second half of 2009. He even goes so far as to describe that figure as “highly unrealistic.”

And that’s only the beginning of the company’s troubles, says Kumar, who was apparently wronged by Palm (PALM) in some previous life. It may face significant carrier issues as well: “Sprint is the only major carrier that has signed on to sponsor the Pre platform. Sprint, which has only a third of the subscriber base of either AT&T or Verizon, has been losing customers due to structural problems,” he writes. “In our opinion, it is highly unlikely customers of AT&T or Verizon will switch to Sprint. Across the pond, carriers are taking a wait and see attitude given the high platform cost and lack of conviction on sell through. If Sprint does not match or beat AT&T’s subsidized iPhone price of $199, which translates to a subsidy in excess of $200, the Pre is DOA.”

A decidedly more jaundiced view of the Palm’s position than we’ve been hearing. That said, it’s best considered with at least a portion of the skepticism it brings to the Pre’s prospects. Certainly, supply chain checks don’t always provide the most reliable data. And the Pre is generating quite a bit of interest in advance of its forthcoming launch–whenever that is.

Collins Stewart analyst Ashok Kumar claims that his supply chain checks indicate that Palm has “drastically reduced its production orders” for the Pre. Kumar says “multiple hardware and software issues” have forced Palm’s hand here and that he doesn’t expect the company to meet its expected goal of one million units shipped in the second half of 2009. He even goes so far as to describe that figure as “highly unrealistic.”

And that’s only the beginning of the company’s troubles, says Kumar, who was apparently wronged by Palm (PALM) in some previous life. It may face significant carrier issues as well: “Sprint is the only major carrier that has signed on to sponsor the Pre platform. Sprint, which has only a third of the subscriber base of either AT&T or Verizon, has been losing customers due to structural problems,” he writes. “In our opinion, it is highly unlikely customers of AT&T or Verizon will switch to Sprint. Across the pond, carriers are taking a wait and see attitude given the high platform cost and lack of conviction on sell through. If Sprint does not match or beat AT&T’s subsidized iPhone price of $199, which translates to a subsidy in excess of $200, the Pre is DOA.”

A decidedly more jaundiced view of the Palm’s position than we’ve been hearing. That said, it’s best considered with at least a portion of the skepticism it brings to the Pre’s prospects. Certainly, supply chain checks don’t always provide the most reliable data. And the Pre is generating quite a bit of interest in advance of its forthcoming launch–whenever that is.

Kumar is not optimistic about Dell’s chances for success with that approach, asserting that the company is “facing a stacked deck with little experience on how to play this game.”

Kumar wonders whether consumers will want a phone that the carriers consider to be not good enough to sell directly. “Consumers are used to subsidized handsets and are not used to paying full price,” he notes, and assumes that retailers will provide prime shelf space for Dell’s phones.

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Ries notes that European buyers are demanding substantially lower prices. “This presents a challenge for CSIQ, as it is a competitive company but not a low cost producer at this point,” he writes.

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While continuing to recommend the stock, analysts at both RBC Capital and Bernstein Research today trimmed both their earnings estimates and price targets for the Internet search giant. That follows similar moves by analysts at Stifel, Morgan Stanley, AmTech and Collins Stewart.

RBC Capital’s Ross Sandler maintains an Outperform rating, but today cut his price target to $500 from $600. For 2008, his EPS estimate is now $19.14, down from $19.45; for 2009 he now sees $21.24, down from $23.46. The move, he writes, is “based on the deteriorating macro environment.” (I bet you sure are surprised to hear that.) He says search is holding up better than other forms of online advertising, but that “no company is immune to cyclical factors.”

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And it will hurt some Internet companies more than others.

“Should the economy run into a recession, this would be only the second downward economic cycle for the Internet. Each Internet company is at a different phase of its evolution,” Aggarwal added. “We believe that a possible recession will be felt harder by those companies that have been delivering extremely high organic growth rates, have high operating leverage, or are approaching minimum operating scale levels in 2008-2009.”

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Quite a gimmick, though Live Search Senior Director Frederick Savoye says SearchPerks, like Cashback, is actually part of Microsoft’s (MSFT) grand plan to “innovate the [search] business model.” If that’s so, the company might want to rethink it. Because Cashback really hasn’t done much to bolster Microsoft’s laggard search service, which remains a very distant third in the search market. According to Nielsen Online’s MegaView search ranking for August, searches on MSN/Windows Live declined 23.8 percent year-over-year. Its August 2008 share of the search market: 10.7 percent.

A 23.8 percent YoY fall in searches doesn’t seem like much of an innovation to the search business model. And with its search market share in decline, Microsoft clearly needs something more than a steady stream of gimmicks to stem the bleeding. Said Collins Stewart Internet analyst Sandeep Aggarwal: “Internal initiatives at [Microsoft] need time to lift off and prove their merit, but sooner or later the company will have to face the realities and decide again if a combination with [Yahoo] can speed the process.”

“We believe that the fundamentals at YHOO are deteriorating,” he writes in a research note. “On the one hand, economic headwinds and turmoil in the financial markets are causing weaker display ad revenues. On the other hand, changes with the minimum bid with search and a possible GOOG/YHOO deal are causing an outcry among many advertisers. To further complicate the situation is an ongoing loss of talent which might accelerate with renewed restructuring efforts. We don’t see any near-term upside in the shares of YHOO on a fundamental basis.”

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Several recent Street research reports note that conditions in the LCD panel sector have been difficult for much of the third quarter, raising questions about the companies’ ability to hit current Street estimates.

Brian White, an analyst with Collins Stewart, noted in a roundup piece on the electronics supply chain today that he visited last week with three leading Taiwan-based LCD panel makers, and came away with a “reinforced” cautious stance on AU Optronics, which he rates Hold.

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Aggarwal says trend reversal in FX “will put $22 million” of “negative pressure on Google’s gross margin” on a sequential basis, and will provide only a $132 million boost on a year-over-year basis, versus $248 million in Q2 and $202 million in Q1.

Aggarwal, who maintains a Buy rating and $615 price target on the stock, says that the currency shift “is not a thesis changer, but a noteworthy trend reversal to watch for.”

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As [fellow Tech Trader Daily writer] Eric Savitz noted yesterday, the Dolan family that controls Cablevision has taken what some consider a more “shareholder-friendly” stance of late, perhaps because activist investor Harbinger has taken a 5 percent stake in the company.

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