IBM, he says, should meet expectations for the quarter by delivering per-share earnings of $3.31, slightly better than the consensus estimate of $3.21. On top of that, he expects IBM to raise its guidance for earnings on the year to $13.35 per share or higher. Sacconaghi says IBM may earn as much as $13.60 a share this year, depending on how much it ultimately saves from workforce reductions and a lower tax rate. He says that IBM has beat its consensus in each of its last 15 quarters and raised annual earnings guidance in nine of its last 11 quarters.

All good, right? Sure, but how long can IBM keep this sort of thing going? Certainly not forever, especially in a tough global economy. Revenue growth this year will be difficult to compare to last year, Sacconaghi writes, especially in light of a stronger U.S. dollar, a slowing business cycle in hardware upgrades and a slowdown in services growth over the last 18 months. As such, his estimates for revenue growth are below those of the Street consensus: Where the Street expects IBM to report sales of nearly $112 billion in fiscal 2012, Sacconaghi expects $109.3 billion.

“IBM has benefited from a favorable currency environment, which has boosted the company’s headline revenue growth number, which is likely to reverse and pressure IBM’s reported revenues in the first half of 2012 at current spot rates,” he writes. “While we don’t expect this to lead to earnings misses versus the consensus given that IBM hedges, we believe that revenue estimates need to be revised downwards from current levels.”

Dell just reported quarterly earnings, and the numbers are a bit mixed. First off, sales in the fourth quarter were $15.692 billion, just a whisker short of consensus analyst expectations of $15.72 billion. That represents a 5 percent improvement over a year ago.

Per-share earnings, however, were way ahead of the consensus at 53 cents versus 37 cents, amounting to a change of 89 percent over the year-ago quarter.

In its outlook, Dell said it expects revenue to to grow in the range of 5 to 9 percent in its fiscal year 2012 (underway as of Jan. 29), and for profits to grow in a range of 6 to 12 percent. Cash flow from operations will exceed profits.

Dell shares are up more than 6 percent in after-hours trading.

Here are some highlights:

• Enterprise sales and services grew 7 percent to $4.6 billion, or 29 percent of overall sales.
• Server revenue increased 16 percent.
• EqualLogic sales grew 49 percent and, combined with Dell PowerVault sales, accounted for almost two-thirds of storage sales and north of 80 percent of storage gross margin dollars.
• Sales in the combined large enterprise, the public and small- to medium-business sector was up 9 percent to $12.4 billion in the quarter, with revenue for commercial laptop and desktop computers growing 10 percent.
• PC profitability (Dell calls them clients) improved in the second half of the year, driven by improvements in the supply chain, lower input costs and improved product quality. For the full year, PC revenue grew 14 percent to $33.7 billion, driven on a refresh cycle from corporate buyers.

CEO Michael Dell sounded an optimistic note, the first I can recall in some time:

“I’m very pleased with our fiscal year results and the strong performance we’re seeing in our commercial businesses. We remain focused on developing and acquiring new technologies and capabilities, and our IT solutions portfolio has never been stronger. Customers are now seeing Dell in a fresh light, and we’re heading into the new year with strength and optimism.”

Today’s the day we find out whether Cisco has successfully navigated the turbulence, and how bad the air pockets truly were. So far, the indications suggest that Cisco is starting to fly clear of the trouble. The consensus of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial calls for Cisco to report per-share earnings of 35 cents on sales of $10.24 billion.

Barclays Capital analyst Jeff Kvaal wrote in a research note issued Monday that Cisco’s end markets look healthy. Telecom carriers and Internet service providers are spending, and you see that reflected in reports from Juniper, which show sales to service providers up 24 percent, and in AT&T’s optimistic capital spending outlook. Meanwhile, growth in enterprise spending is holding steady as companies improve their networks. And in the end, Cisco’s guidance for sales to grow 3 to 5 percent may prove a tad conservative, meaning those air pockets may not have been as entirely bad as originally thought.

Yahoo will report its fourth-quarter earnings later today, and BoomTown will be covering them all the way from Hong Kong (the miracle of the Internet!).

Analysts expect the troubled Internet giant to turn in exactly what has been expected for the period–the consensus is $1.19 billion in net revenue and earnings of 22 cents a share.

That revenue number is lower than a year ago, especially due to declines in search ad revenue at the company.

Earlier this week, Google turned in a strong quarter. But Wall Street is only looking for meeting expectations from Yahoo, which will report after the markets close.

At a conference call with analysts after the earnings release, expect Yahoo CEO Carol Bartz to get questions on increased competition to its display advertising business from Facebook and Google, declining usage of its sites, as well as what she will do about continued product drift and talent drain.

And, if the growth picture remains lackluster, about how much longer her long-promised turnaround will take.

The slowness of the effort is starting to worry major investors, some of whom have gone sour on Bartz’s ability to reinvigorate the Silicon Valley icon and have been telling exactly that to board members in recent months.

Read the rest of this post on the original site

Netflix ended the quarter with 16.9 million subscribers, which beats the Street’s 16.6 million consensus, and should please investors. And it has also pushed up its Q4 expectations–it now expects to have between 19 million and 19.7 million subscribers at the end of the year, up from earlier projections of 17.7 million to 18.5 million.

Other guidance: Revenue of $586 million to $598 million, versus $580 million to $596 million. The Street was looking for $592 million.

GAAP net income of $32 million to $40 million, unchanged.
GAAP EPS of $0.59 to $0.74 per diluted share, unchanged.

Two important points deep into the accompanying “management commentary“:

• The company, which moved into Canada this year, is contemplating moving “beyond North America” in the second half of 2011. If it does, it will spend about $50 million on the effort.
• A bit more info on the possibility of a streaming-only option in the U.S., which the company had previously talked about. It is testing one now, and says, “If our results are as strong as we think they will be, then we will look to start this offering later in this Q4.“

Earnings “cheat sheet” via Citi’s Mark Mahaney:

Netflix earnings are getting progressively more interesting, as the company pushes further and further into digital video, which brings it into competition (and/or cooperation) with…everybody: Apple, Google, Amazon, etc. I’ll be back at 6 pm ET for the conference call.

The Street won’t like guidance, though: Apple is predicting Q1 EPS of $4.80, below the $5.04 analysts were looking for. They will also sputter a bit on this number: Apple sold 4.19 million iPads, and the consensus was 4.7 million.

And then on the other hand, Apple sold 14.1 million iPhones last quarter, well above both the official 11 million consensus and the 13 million “what we’re really looking for” number.

Ominous/hopeful Steve Jobs quote: “We still have a few surprises left for the remainder of this calendar year.”

UPDATE: Live earnings call coverage here.

Other numbers you care about:

Macs sold: 3.89 million.

iPods sold: 9.05 million.

Press release text:

Apple Reports Fourth Quarter Results
Record Mac, iPhone and iPad Sales
Highest Revenue and Earnings Ever

CUPERTINO, California—October 18, 2010—Apple® today announced financial results for its fiscal 2010 fourth quarter ended September 25, 2010. The Company posted record revenue of $20.34 billion and net quarterly profit of $4.31 billion, or $4.64 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $12.21 billion and net quarterly profit of $2.53 billion, or $2.77 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 36.9 percent compared to 41.8 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 57 percent of the quarter’s revenue.
Apple sold 3.89 million Macs during the quarter, a 27 percent unit increase over the year-ago quarter. The Company sold 14.1 million iPhones in the quarter, representing 91 percent unit growth over the year-ago quarter. Apple sold 9.05 million iPods during the quarter, representing an 11 percent unit decline from the year-ago quarter. The Company also sold 4.19 million iPads during the quarter.
“We are blown away to report over $20 billion in revenue and over $4 billion in after-tax earnings—both all-time records for Apple,” said Steve Jobs, Apple’s CEO. “iPhone sales of 14.1 million were up 91 percent year-over-year, handily beating the 12.1 million phones RIM sold in their most recent quarter. We still have a few surprises left for the remainder of this calendar year.”
“We’re thrilled with the performance and strength of our business, generating almost $5.7 billion in cash flow from operations during the quarter,” said Peter Oppenheimer, Apple’s CFO. “Looking ahead to the first fiscal quarter of 2011, we expect revenue of about $23 billion and we expect diluted earnings per share of about $4.80.”

Here are the three data points that the search giant showed off during its earnings call this afternoon. All of them “begin with the letter B,” as product SVP Google Jonathan Rosenberg noted, and all of them come with caveats:

• $2.5 billion: Non-text display ad revenue run rate. That number includes ads from its DoubleClick unit as well as YouTube.
• 2 billion: YouTube monetized views per week.
• $1 billion: Mobile annualized revenue run rate.

All of those seem big–and they are! But they’re also deliberately fuzzy enough that it’s hard to tell exactly what they mean.

For instance: As Henry Blodget notes, those display-ad dollars are gross revenue, which means that Google only keeps a portion of them. And while that two billion YouTube views number is up from a billion a year ago, it’s proportionally the same: A year ago YouTube said it was monetizing a billion views a week while serving up a billion views a day; now the video site says two billion views a week and two billion a day.

Meanwhile Google officials, who routinely announce that YouTube is close to profitability, refused to tell analysts whether YouTube is actually profitable.

No matter! The point of b-as-in-big numbers was to impress Wall Street with Google’s ability to create new revenue streams beyond its core search ads. And the data, along with the company’s impressive Q3 performance, seems to have worked: Shares are up nine percent in after-hours trading.

——————

EARLIER

There’s the beat Wall Street was looking for. Google reports earnings of $7.67 a share and net revenues of $5.48 billion. The consensus was for $6.67 and $5.25 billion. GAAP EPS was $6.72.

Google (GOOG) has been plowing money into capital expenditures and people–it now has 23,300 employees, up from 21,800  months ago, a 6.8 percent increase–but it has been able to keep operating income quite healthy, anyway. Adjusted operating income was $2.93 billion, well above the $2.77 billion consensus.

GOOG is up considerably, now seven percent, in after-hours trading. Robot cars for all!

You can listen to (and watch) Google’s 4:30 pm ET earnings call by clicking on this YouTube link. I’ll add updates from the earnings call occasionally starting here:

As in recent quarters, CEO Eric Schmidt is sitting this one out.

CFO Patrick Pichette starts off. Aha! Teases that “we may have” Schmidt available for the first 30 minutes of Q&A before he gets on a GooglePlane.

300 of those new 1,500 employees came from acquisitions.

Discussion of “long-term” growth–”the next 5 to 10 years.” “Simply put, we’re on this growth agenda at full throttle…investing heavily in people and in product.”

There’s a “war for talent” in our industry, which is “out of synch” with the broader economy. Currently exploring how to attract and retain people. Winners and losers determined by this battle.

Re: Product investment, which you’ll hear about from product SVP Jonathan Rosenberg. He’s going to tell you about some numbers, but don’t expect to hear an update on these–they’re merely “proof points” about Google’s success.

Here’s Rosenberg, teasing new previously unreleased numbers.

Here they come. Starting with search and Google Instant:

Impact has been “very minimal” on revenue and “quite expensive” from a resource perspective.

But! “We launched it because we could.”

As search gets better, ads have to keep pace. Great momentum with AdWords.

New ad formats appear on more than 10 percent of query. Some formats show clickthrough rates as much as 10 percent on some, up 30 percent in others.

Big numbers, “which all begin with the letter B.”

$2.5 billion: Non-text display ad revenue run rate. That includes DoubleClick, YouTube.

2 billion: YouTube monetized views per week

$1 billion: Mobile annualized run rate

Mobile search queries up 5 times in the last few years.

Back to Pichette, to tamp down numbers.

In some cases, there is overlap with numbers. For instance, with AdMob, numbers counted in both display and mobile.

Time for Q&A, Schmidt is now on the line.

Schmidt says query growth is pushing click growth, and so are new ad formats. Ads are more compelling, etc.

Pichette notes that AdX numbers are included in the $2.5B display total.

Q: Please talk about YouTube. Of the two billion monetized views, what percent is that of total views? And are you profitable yet?

Pichette: Re: Profitability, “We have not made any comments on it.” [Except of course when they do, over and over.]

Rosenberg: Note that we’ve said we do two billion views per day–that will give you context.

Sorry, missed a Q.

Schmidt says growth of Android is “well past what I had ever hoped for.”

90,000 apps on Android “and growing very fast.”

Question about “proprietary benefits” of Android.

Schmidt: Android is the “largest single platform play” in mobile today.

We’re growing it by giving software away. How does that help us? Well, for starters, people who use Android search two times more than anyone else. Obvious benefit for us there, and search is more lucrative for us there as well, and that makes Android “hugely profitable.”

And we can add other value-added services to Android, but that’s not the focus right now.

Questions on cost: Cost per employee has declined. Can you continue that? And on mobile, will you stay with the “indirect monetization” Android strategy?

Pichette: Wouldn’t read anything into the cost-per-employee numbers. But we’re continuing to be frugal and generous.

Ad boss Nikesh Arora: We’re excited about the revenue model we have. We have no reason to change the model we have with Android.

Schmidt: And display will become a very big component of mobile.

Q: On display, can you break out YouTube and AdX numbers? And what do you think of competitive Android marketplaces?

Pichette: No breakout of numbers. [Duh.]

Schmidt: Goal of the app store is to make money for developers. Not a revenue goal for Google. More stores are a “win for everybody.”

Question about CPC on mobile devices. Rosenberg: They’re lower than desktop, because there aren’t many practical ways to consumate transaction. But on the iPad, activity looks a little bit more like it does on a PC, because there’s more room to enter credit card numbers, etc.

Q: Please discuss cannibalization between smartphone and PC–are iPad and tablet searches incremental or cannibalization? And can you give us color on international 26 percent growth?

Rosenberg: We don’t see cannibalization. We see mobile as complimentary to desktop. Different use patterns–mobile search is on weekends, during lunchtime, etc.

Arora: Generally, trend positive across the board. U.K. a bit weaker, but some of that is FX. Southern Europe way better than Northern. Asian markets robust.

Q: Competitors make $300 profit per handset sold over the lifetime of a device.You’re approaching this with a different model, but do you think that’s an upper limit on that number?

Schmidt: Our model is that handset makers and manufacturers make a lot of money from the phone, and we make money from advertising. So can’t compare the two, and premature for us to guess what we can do. “It should be highly lucrative” and a “very very strong revenue stream compared to a PC.”

Q: On social search. How do you “capture the signal” without access to the data feeds, as you have with Twitter.

Schmidt: “There are some ways we can do that” now, and we’re working on new ways.

Sorry, stepped out. Back now.

Q: TAC rate seems to be lowest since IPO. Sustainable? Growth has been driven by volume, not price. Sustainable, and/or will pricing increase going forward?

Pichette: MySpace deal is now over. That saved us a bunch of money. And mix of our partners will effect our TAC. That’s about it.

Rosenberg: Can’t answer volume/price question without “being forward-looking.” [Heh]

Q: Microsoft/Facebook deal was exclusive. But do you think you’ll see exclusive data deals? And what about Groupon, etc.? Can you compete there?

A: Value of exclusive data is “swamped” by “vastness” of the Web. So no concern there.

Schmidt: Always a concern that large chunks of data are not accessible to search engines….long pause… up to the content owner to decide how much to expose. We believe the world is better off if more information is searchable. “We fundamentally believe that.”

Rosenberg: Daily deals are very exciting. “A lot of small companies doing a fabulous job there.” We participate a little bit via sitelinks. But no question “that’s a very exciting and hot space.”

Q: When will Google Instant be on the BlackBerry or iPhone? What’s Android activation rate? And why not let advertisers bid directly on mobile inventory?

Rosenberg: Instant availability on other platforms “relatively soon”–probably this fall.

Not updating Android activation numbers.

Q: Given that non-core search is more material, do you think you’ll keep allocating resources with your 70-10-10 model? And when do you anticipate mobile overtaking desktop?

Schmidt: On mobile vs. display: Even if we knew I don’t think we’d talk about it.

On core vs. emergent: We talk about this all the time. Depends. Android is very small, and growing fast, so they get all the resources they need. We end up still at 70-10-10, but that’s not really a formula for us.

Pichette: What really matters the most to us is as Eric says, “When you see a hockey stick, pour gasoline on that fire.”

Q: Big-picture data question: What does Google think about leveraging user data to better target ads (see Facebook, Yahoo, etc.)–particularly with search data and display?

Schmidt: “We have a pretty strong opinion that we’re not going to do very much of it.” We’re intensely serious about privacy.

So “we’re not going to do the kinds of things that we could do with it… without your explicit permission. And in many cases we probably won’t do it forever.”

A question on display, which I’ve missed but will have to return to.

Pichette wraps things up. Today’s data points “are not about giving you information” for coming quarters, but to give you confidence that we’re building long-term businesses.

Call ends.

Mark Mahaney’s cheat sheet will help you decipher the numbers:

Quite a showing considering the consensus estimate had Amazon (AMZN) reporting earnings of 61 cents a share on revenue of $6.87 billion.

In a statement, Amazon once again touted the Kindle e-reader as its “#1 bestselling product” and once again declined to offer any hard sales figures on the device, which is becoming increasingly more relevant with the arrival of Apple’s iPad and the expectation that other tablet devices will be landing soon. In a statement, founder and CEO Jeff Bezos said:

“We remain heads-down focused on customers. Amazon Prime has just celebrated its fifth anniversary, adoption of Amazon Web Services continues to accelerate, Kindle remains our #1 bestselling product, and earlier this week, Kindle selection reached 500,000 titles.”

Reporting first-quarter earnings this morning, the world’s largest maker of mobile phones fell short of expectations for both sales and profit. Though sales rose for the first time since the second quarter of 2008, they did not meet consensus estimates. Where analysts were looking for 9.69 billion euros, Nokia (NOK) delivered just 9.52 billion. And at 14 cents a share, adjusted earnings missed a consensus forecast for earnings of 15 cents.

There was some good news amid the bad, though. Nokia sold 21.5 million smartphones during the quarter, up 57 percent. That’s quite an improvement over last quarter, though as growth rates go, it pales compared with the 131 percent jump in iPhone shipments Apple (AAPL) reported earlier this week.

In any event, Nokia’s struggle to return to its former glory in the highly competitive mobile market is far from over. Said CEO Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo: “We continue to face tough competition with respect to the high end of our mobile device portfolio, as well as challenging market conditions on the infrastructure side.”

That’s not going to change any time soon, particularly in the smartphone market, where Nokia lags far behind its rivals. As Gartner (IT) analyst Carolina Milanesi notes, “Everyone else has caught up and Nokia has been left behind.”

And while the company is doing its damnedest to catch up, things just don’t seem to be working out. Indeed, this morning, Nokia said it is delaying the launch of its first Symbian 3 devices from the second till the third quarter.

“We will not ship these products before the quality meets the end user’s needs and demands,” Kallasvuo said during the company’s earnings call. “It’s a painful thing to delay something a bit. I am aware of that. But at the same time meeting the quality requirements is the right thing to do.”

Disappointing news given that these are the handsets intended as rivals to Apple’s iPhone and to some of HTC’s Android devices. Pushing their launch date out is going to put the company under enormous pressure toward the end of the year as we head into the winter holidays.

Said Milanesi: “Nokia catching up becomes less hopeful because of these delays. Competition will only get tougher in the second half with the run up to Christmas. We have to see what kind of rabbit they can pull out of the hat.”

Wall Street’s reaction to today’s news? A nasty beating. As of this writing, Nokia shares are trading down nearly 13 percent at $12.86.

Apple’s first quarter was a blowout, as was the one before it. So too is the company’s latest. Reporting second-quarter earnings after the bell Tuesday, Apple rolled out the big numbers once again. The company posted a profit of $3.07 billion on revenue that rose 49 percent to $13.5 billion. Earnings per share were $3.33, far more than the $2.45 per share analysts had been expecting.

Apple (AAPL) said it sold 8.75 million iPhones for the quarter, up more than 131 percent from the year prior; 2.94 million Macs, up 33 percent; and nearly 10.9 million iPods, down one percent. Strong numbers, all. Even iPod sales beat the Street’s consensus of nine million units shipped.

“We’re thrilled to report our best non-holiday quarter ever, with revenues up 49 percent and profits up 90 percent,” CEO Steve Jobs said in another variation of the statement the company has sent out so many times before. “We’ve launched our revolutionary new iPad and users are loving it, and we have several more extraordinary products in the pipeline for this year.”

At $261.36, Apple shares are up nearly seven percent in after-hours trading.

Apple’s earnings release below as well as notes from the earnings call.

Notes From the Call

• During introductory remarks, Apple CFO Peter Oppenheimer pointed out that sales of Macs outpaced those of PCs. According to IDC, PC sales grew 24 percent during March quarter. Mac sales rose 33 percent.
• iPod touch sales grew 63 percent year-over-year. Apple controls over 70 percent of the U.S. market for digital media players.
• Apple’s iTunes Store generated $1.1 billion in sales (music, video and apps). Some four billion apps have been downloaded to date. There are currently 3,500 apps for iPad.
• Retail store revenue was $1.68 billion, a 22 percent increase. The company sold 606,000 Macs through its retail outlets, an increase of 38 percent. Half of those were sold were to customers who never owned a Mac before. Apple plans to open 40 to 50 new stores in fiscal 2010.
• Didn’t quite catch it, but there was some mention of a “future product transition.” Not sure what this refers to, but certainly interesting.
• This was the best quarter ever for iPhone sales–131 percent year-over-year growth. That’s three times the growth IDC has estimated for the smartphone market as a whole.
• Are folks who would have bought Macs now buying iPads instead? Apple COO Tim Cook said the company hasn’t seen any Mac cannibalization yet. He also said it’s far too early to tell which version of the device–Wi-Fi-only or Wi-Fi plus 3G–is selling better.
• iPhone units shipped in the Asia-Pacific region were up year-over-year more than nine times, Cook said. “Through the first half of the fiscal year, our revenue from greater China was over 1.13 billion,” he added. “That’s up over 200 percent year-over-year.”
• On iAds: “We’re just putting our toes in the water, so don’t expect much from us this calendar year.”
• Remarking on the company’s iPhone exclusivity agreements, Cook said that in those markets where Apple has moved from exclusive to nonexclusive, it has seen its unit share and market share improve. No comment on whether or not the company will end iPhone exclusivity in the U.S.
• Cook: “We think the market size for the iPad is very large.”
• Asked about the delayed international launch of the iPad, Cook said there isn’t “a production problem per se…but the level of demand has shocked us, at least initially.”
• Apple is still happy with AT&T (T) and its network? AT&T has made “big strides,” he noted, adding that “we look forward to continued improvement.”
• Cook on Apple TV: “It’s still a hobby for us.”
• Cook on iPad versus netbook: “I can’t think of a single thing the netbook does well….To me it’s a no-brainer that someone would buy an iPad over a netbook.
• Are consumers buying different kinds of apps for the iPad than for the iPhone? Too early to tell, though app sales and book sales are both quite strong.
• Question about the “extraordinary products” Apple mentioned in its earnings release. No comment. “We’re not going to help our competitors by answering that,” said Oppenheimer.

Apple Reports Second Quarter Results
Record March Quarter Revenue and Profit
iPhone Sales More Than Double
CUPERTINO, California—April 20, 2010—Apple® today announced financial results for its fiscal 2010 second quarter ended March 27, 2010. The Company posted revenue of $13.50 billion and net quarterly profit of $3.07 billion, or $3.33 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $9.08 billion and net quarterly profit of $1.62 billion, or $1.79 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 41.7 percent, up from 39.9 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 58 percent of the quarter’s revenue.

Apple sold 2.94 million Macintosh® computers during the quarter, representing a 33 percent unit increase over the year-ago quarter. The Company sold 8.75 million iPhones in the quarter, representing 131 percent unit growth over the year-ago quarter. Apple sold 10.89 million iPods during the quarter, representing a one percent unit decline from the year-ago quarter.

“We’re thrilled to report our best non-holiday quarter ever, with revenues up 49 percent and profits up 90 percent,” said Steve Jobs, Apple’s CEO. “We’ve launched our revolutionary new iPad and users are loving it, and we have several more extraordinary products in the pipeline for this year.”

“Looking ahead to the third fiscal quarter of 2010, we expect revenue in the range of about $13.0 billion to $13.4 billion and we expect diluted earnings per share in the range of about $2.28 to $2.39,” said Peter Oppenheimer, Apple’s CFO.

Welcome news given recent concerns about the impact new Apple (AAPL) iPhones headed to market might have on sales. Sadly for RIM (RIMM), the revenue and earnings per share posted today were both below expectations. The company earned $710.1 million, or $1.27 per share, on revenue of $4.08 billion. Analysts were expecting earnings of $1.28 per share on revenue of $4.3 billion, according to consensus estimates from Thomson Reuters.

At $69 RIM shares are down 6.7 percent in after-hours trading.

This according to Morgan Stanley (MS) analyst Katy Huberty, who says Apple’s manufacturing partners now expect to ship 2.5 million iPads between March and May, considerably ahead of her previous estimate of 750,000 for the June quarter.

What’s more, they are now forecasting shipments of eight to 10 million iPads in calendar 2010, considerably more than prior expectations of five million-plus.

Current Street consensus is for Apple (AAPL) to sell three to four million iPads, but Huberty figures the company will sell over six million iPads.

“We continue to believe the market under-appreciates longer-term iPhone/iPad demand,” Huberty writes. “Negative investor sentiment on the iPad centers on the lack of a ‘killer app’ or new technology.”

Adding detail, the analysts says that “Near-term, we believe iPad will target the sizeable sub-$800 consumer notebook market, which equates to 30 million units in the US and 120 million units globally. Medium-term, newly introduced content (books, magazines, video) and iPad-optimized apps could broaden the addressable market and strengthen iPad sales momentum later this year.”

FURTHER READING:

Launch Day iPads Sold Out

iPad Available at “Most Best Buy Stores” This Saturday

Apple Grabs iPad Trademark From Fujitsu

Apple Now Accepting iPad App Submissions

Early Supplies of iPad Accessories Dwindling?

Initial iPad Demand Greater Than Initial iPhone Demand

iPad TV?

Apple’s Tablet: Read Different?

Rumored Apple Netbook Actually an E-book?

Coming Soon From Apple: Big Touch?

iTablet: Apple’s Killer App for Higher Ed

COMPLETE IPAD COVERAGE

[Image credit: Bitolithic]

“iPad yields should improve dramatically throughout the year even if the launch starts out capacity constrained,” Reitzes wrote in a research note to clients today. “These developments support upside to consensus forecasts for the iPad, should demand materialize like we think it can. We estimate Apple will sell almost 5 million iPads for CY10; including 1.2 million in the June quarter–which could prove conservative.”

As for the iPhone, the analyst says, “Also, we have increased confidence that Apple will make a big splash this summer with a new iPhone form factor. We believe that the new model will launch with considerable fanfare and expect unit expectations to rise in turn.”

“Big splash,” “considerable fanfare”: That’s certainly been the case with iPhone launches to date. No reason to expect things will be any different this time around.

As for iPad sales, there’s really no telling yet, though “people familiar with the matter” have told The Wall Street Journal that Apple has sold hundreds of thousands of units via pre-order and could end up selling more iPads in the first three months than it sold iPhones in the three months after that device’s debut.

Mac sales through the first two months of the March quarter are up 39 percent year-over-year. As Munster observed in a research note this morning, NPD’s data suggest Apple (AAPL) is on track to sell between 2.8 million and 2.9 million Macs in the March quarter, well above Wall Street’s consensus estimate of 2.7 million.

Now, these numbers benefit from an easier year-over-year comp, as I’ve noted before. That said, they’re still quite impressive.

Incidentally, Macs aren’t the only things selling vigorously these days. iPods are as well. NPD’s data show iPod sales up seven percent year-over-year through the first two months of the March quarter. That’s the first sales increase they’ve seen in a year.

Looks like Apple’s headed for a hell of a quarter (click tables below to enlarge).