But Kinect, when it goes on sale Thursday, will also be the most visible test in years of whether Microsoft can churn out breakout consumer products from its huge investment in research and development.

Microsoft faces increasing pressure from investors to show a payoff from those investments, which amounted to $8.7 billion for the fiscal year ended June 30–bigger than the R&D budget for any other tech company. Microsoft has poured a chunk of that money into improving existing products and services like its Bing search engine, as well as more traditional franchises like Windows and Office.

Kinect will be especially visible: an entirely new $150 device sold at retail outlets and aimed squarely at the consumer market, a field in which Microsoft has been more sluggish to respond to trends than Apple Inc. and other competitors.

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In a research note to clients today, Piper Jaffray analyst T. Michael Walkley says his checks this month and last suggest the BlackBerry is losing momentum at the country’s largest wireless carriers, mostly to handsets running Google’s (GOOG) Android OS.

“While BlackBerry remains a leading smartphone brand, our checks indicate potential sell-through share losses at AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile,” Walkley writes. “In fact, we believe the Bold 9700 continued to lose smartphone share at AT&T following a price increase last month to $199.”

There’s worse. “In addition, our checks indicated further share losses to Android products at T-Mobile and Verizon. At Verizon, our checks indicated slowing RIM sales, as sales managers continue to push Android products such as the HTC Incredible and Motorola Droid. At T-Mobile, our checks indicate weaker BlackBerry sales due to strong sales of Android products such as the HTC MyTouch and the Windows based HTC HD2.”

But RIM’s situation isn’t dire. RIM is one of the five largest mobile phone manufacturers in the world and it makes only smartphones. Still, these market trends are worth keeping an eye on, particularly the likely arrival of a new iPhone at AT&T (T) this summer and a handful of slick new Android smartphones at Verizon (VZ).

While the new Blackberry Bold 9650 and the Pearl 3G might fend off those devices in the enterprise market relatively easily, they’re likely to have a harder time of it in the consumer market.

iPhone is launching in one carrier in one country. We’re in about 100 countries and 300 carriers. … The momentum we are seeing in terms of product launches, carrier support in terms of product launches of BlackBerries, and subscriber additions is exceptional, and we believe it will continue on into the second half of the year.”

– Research in Motion Co-Chief Executive Officer Jim Balsillie, June 2007

Looks like somebody’s got a case of the Mondays–Research in Motion. Shares in the company slipped more than 6 percent to a new 52-week low today. This after charting a new 52-week low last Friday driven by the 27 percent drop RIM took after it issued a lower-than-expected forecast for the current period. That decline was the company’s steepest in eight years, belying CEO Jim Balsillie’s claims that emerging competition from new handset makers isn’t undermining its competitive position. And though RIM’s product roadmap is relatively strong heading into the fall season, the company still has its work cut out for it scrapping with Apple (AAPL) and its iPhone and now T-Mobile (DT) and the Android-based G1.

“RIM’s business model is starting to show its pressure points. The company has become increasingly dependent on hardware sales. As a result, the timing of new product launches can have a big impact on their results,” wrote Brian Modoff of Deutsche Bank in a report. “We think this trend will only worsen and their numbers are now, more than ever, dependent on a steady stream of hit products.”

Needham and Company analyst Craig Bisagna was even more dubious of prospects for Research in Motion (RIMM), criticizing the company for its foolishly dismissive attitude toward new rivals. Just because Windows Mobile handsets haven’t proven themselves worthy competitors to the Blackberry doesn’t mean the iPhone or the G1 won’t.

“We continue to believe that the company has its head in the sand,” Bisagna said in a note to clients. “It’s delusional to think [Apple and HTC] won’t cut into BlackBerry sales as well, especially in the consumer market.”

iPhone is launching in one carrier in one country. We’re in about 100 countries and 300 carriers. … The momentum we are seeing in terms of product launches, carrier support in terms of product launches of BlackBerries, and subscriber additions is exceptional, and we believe it will continue on into the second half of the year.”

– Research in Motion Co-Chief Executive Officer Jim Balsillie, June 2007

Looks like somebody’s got a case of the Mondays–Research in Motion. Shares in the company slipped more than 6 percent to a new 52-week low today. This after charting a new 52-week low last Friday driven by the 27 percent drop RIM took after it issued a lower-than-expected forecast for the current period. That decline was the company’s steepest in eight years, belying CEO Jim Balsillie’s claims that emerging competition from new handset makers isn’t undermining its competitive position. And though RIM’s product roadmap is relatively strong heading into the fall season, the company still has its work cut out for it scrapping with Apple (AAPL) and its iPhone and now T-Mobile (DT) and the Android-based G1.

“RIM’s business model is starting to show its pressure points. The company has become increasingly dependent on hardware sales. As a result, the timing of new product launches can have a big impact on their results,” wrote Brian Modoff of Deutsche Bank in a report. “We think this trend will only worsen and their numbers are now, more than ever, dependent on a steady stream of hit products.”

Needham and Company analyst Craig Bisagna was even more dubious of prospects for Research in Motion (RIMM), criticizing the company for its foolishly dismissive attitude toward new rivals. Just because Windows Mobile handsets haven’t proven themselves worthy competitors to the Blackberry doesn’t mean the iPhone or the G1 won’t.

“We continue to believe that the company has its head in the sand,” Bisagna said in a note to clients. “It’s delusional to think [Apple and HTC] won’t cut into BlackBerry sales as well, especially in the consumer market.”