We don’t know, and we should be wary of people who say they understand why the market moves in any particular direction, on any particular day. That said: The day after Google announced its Q1 earnings, Google is trading down about 4 percent. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq is down about 1 percent.

To recap: Google’s Q1 came in around where Wall Street thought it would — revenues were just under consensus, and earnings were a bit above.

The company’s cost-per-click trend continued to decline, dropping 12 percent year over year, and I’ve seen some reports where analysts are wringing their hands over that. But the stock-watchers I follow don’t seem overly concerned about that — they assume that as long as Google’s overall ad volume increases, it can afford to sell its stuff for less.

The other news item, of course, was that Google is creating a new, non-voting class of stock that effectively creates a 2-1 split. This has no bearing on the way the company does business — it will still run, effectively, as a privately controlled company whose shares happen to trade on the open market. Hard to see investors getting excited one way or another about it. But you never know.

The cost-per-click number, which freaked out Wall Street last quarter, was down another 12 percent. That’s a bigger drop than many analysts had predicted.

Meanwhile, Google is creating a new class of non-voting stock, which it says will end up creating a 2-1 stock split. Here’s a brief explanation via CEO Larry Page’s Google+ page:

Effectively a Stock Split: And a New Class of Stock

Today we announced plans to create a new class of non-voting capital stock, which will be listed on NASDAQ. These shares will be distributed via a stock dividend to all existing stockholders: the owner of each existing share will receive one new share of the non-voting stock, giving investors twice the number of shares they had before. It’s effectively a two-for-one stock split — something many of our investors have long asked us for. These non-voting shares will be available for corporate uses, like equity-based employee compensation, that might otherwise dilute our governance structure.

So is Google planning on another big, Motorola-sized deal that’s planning on using stock? No, Page says: “We don’t have an unusually big acquisition planned, in case you were wondering.”

This is technically a “proposal,” but since Page, Sergey Brin and Eric Schmidt effectively control Google already, it’s a foregone conclusion — which is exactly the concentration of power the move is supposed to sustain. It should go into effect later this summer.

My colleague Liz Gannes is live-blogging the earnings call here; you can also listen in for yourself via YouTube.

Here’s Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney’s “cheat sheet” to help you interpret the numbers:

And here’s the entire text of Page’s Founders’ Letter, followed by a statement from chief legal officer David Drummond:

FOUNDERS’ LETTER 2012

Introduction

Throughout our evolution, from privately held start-up to large, publicly listed company, we have managed Google for the long term — enjoying tremendous success as a result, especially since our IPO in 2004. Sergey and I hoped, though we did not expect, that Google would have such significant impact, and this progress has made us even more impatient to do important things that matter in the world. Our enduring love for Google comes from a strong desire to create technology products that enrich millions of people’s lives in deep and meaningful ways. To fulfill these dreams, we need to ensure that Google remains a successful, growing business that can generate significant returns for everyone involved.

Corporate Structure

When we went public, we created a dual-class voting structure. Our goal was to maintain the freedom to focus on the long term by ensuring that the management team, in particular Eric, Sergey and I, retained control over Google’s destiny. As we explained in our first founders’ letter:

“We are creating a corporate structure that is designed for stability over long time horizons. By investing in Google, you are placing an unusual long term bet on the team, especially Sergey and me, and on our innovative approach…

We want Google to become an important and significant institution. That takes time, stability and independence…

In the transition to public ownership, we have set up a corporate structure that will make it harder for outside parties to take over or influence Google. This structure will also make it easier for our management team to follow the long term, innovative approach emphasized earlier…

The main effect of this structure is likely to leave our team, especially Sergey and me, with increasingly significant control over the company’s decisions and fate, as Google shares change hands…

New investors will fully share in Google’s long term economic future but will have little ability to influence its strategic decisions through their voting rights…

Our colleagues will be able to trust that they themselves and their labors of hard work, love and creativity will be well cared for by a company focused on stability and the long term…

As an investor, you are placing a potentially risky long term bet on the team, especially Sergey and me. …. Sergey and I are committed to Google for the long term.”

I wanted to quote all that because these were the clear, well-publicized expectations we established for investors in 2004. While this decision was controversial at the time, we believe with hindsight it was absolutely the right thing to do. Eight years later, these statements are still remarkably accurate, and everyone involved has realized tremendous benefits as a result. Given Google’s success, it’s unsurprising that this type of dual-class governance structure is now somewhat standard among newer technology companies.

In our experience, success is more likely if you concentrate on the long term. Technology products often require significant investment over many years to fulfill their potential. For example, it took over three years just to ship our first Android handset, and then another three years on top of that before the operating system truly reached critical mass. These kinds of investments are not for the faint-hearted.

We have protected Google from outside pressures and the temptation to sacrifice future opportunities to meet short-term demands. Long-term product investments, like Chrome and YouTube, which now enjoy phenomenal usage, were made with a significant degree of independence.

We have a structure that prevents outside parties from taking over or unduly influencing our management decisions. However, day-to-day dilution from routine equity-based employee compensation and other possible dilution, such as stock-based acquisitions, will likely undermine this dual-class structure and our aspirations for Google over the very long term. We have put our hearts into Google and hope to do so for many more years to come. So we want to ensure that our corporate structure can sustain these efforts and our desire to improve the world.

Effectively a Stock Split: And a New Class of Stock

Today we announced plans to create a new class of non-voting capital stock, which will be listed on NASDAQ. These shares will be distributed via a stock dividend to all existing stockholders: the owner of each existing share will receive one new share of the non-voting stock, giving investors twice the number of shares they had before. It’s effectively a two-for-one stock split — something many of our investors have long asked us for. These non-voting shares will be available for corporate uses, like equity-based employee compensation, that might otherwise dilute our governance structure.

We recognize that some people, particularly those who opposed this structure at the start, won’t support this change — and we understand that other companies have been very successful with more traditional governance models. But after careful consideration with our board of directors, we have decided that maintaining this founder-led approach is in the best interests of Google, our shareholders and our users. Having the flexibility to use stock without diluting our structure will help ensure we are set up for success for decades to come.

In November 2009, Sergey and I published plans to sell a modest percentage of our overall stock, ending in 2015. We are currently halfway through those plans and we don’t expect any changes to that, certainly not as the result of this new potential class. We both remain very much committed to Google for the long term.

It’s important to bear in mind that this proposal will only have an effect on governance over the very long term. In fact, there’s no particular urgency to make these changes now — we don’t have an unusually big acquisition planned, in case you were wondering. It’s just that since we know what we want to do, there’s no reason to delay the decision. Also note that there will be no immediate change in votes, because everyone will still have the same number. In addition, Eric, Sergey and I have all agreed to “stapling” arrangements so that, above set thresholds, if our economic interest in Google were to decline, our votes would as well. We also have provisions to ensure all shareholders are treated fairly from an economic perspective.

For more details on all of this, please see the postscript below from our Chief Legal Officer, David Drummond, and the preliminary proxy statement we will file with the SEC next week.

Conclusion

We have always managed Google for the long term, investing heavily in the big bets we hope will make a significant difference in the world. Some of these bets have been tremendous, funding our activities and generating significant gains for our shareholders. Others have been less successful. But the ability to take these kinds of risks has been crucial to Google’s overall success and we aim to maintain this pioneering culture going forward.

The proposal we announced today is consistent with the governance philosophy we articulated when we took the company public, as well as the trend for newer technology companies to adopt strong dual-class
structures. We believe that it will provide great competitive strength — insulating Google from short-term pressures, whatever the source, for a long time to come, while also giving us more flexibility around equity grants.

Investors and others have always taken a big bet on us, the founders, and that bet will likely last longer as a result of these changes. We are honored that so many of you have put your trust in us and we recognize the tremendous responsibility that rests on our shoulders. We think this is a good thing because users rely on Google to produce and operate amazing technology products and to safely and responsibly store their data. This is our passion.

Sergey and I share a profound belief in the potential for technology to improve people’s lives and we are enormously excited about what lies ahead. I couldn’t write a better conclusion to this founder’s letter than what we wrote in 2004… so here goes: “We have a strong commitment to our users worldwide, their communities, the web sites in our network, our advertisers, our investors, and of course our employees. Sergey and I, and the team will do our best to make Google a long term success and the world a better place.”

Larry Page
CEO and Co-founder

Sergey Brin
Co-founder

April 2012

Postscript from David Drummond, Chief Legal Officer, Google Inc.

This is not the usual yada yada… so please read on.

Although we’ll be filing a comprehensive proxy statement soon, I wanted to share some details about today’s proposal to create a new class of stock and the process our board of directors followed to approve it.

As Larry and Sergey note above, the stock dividend we are announcing today will have the basic effect of a two-for-one stock split. Each holder of a share of Class A or Class B common stock will receive one share of the new non-voting Class C capital stock. So after the dividend, a stockholder who currently owns one Class A share with a single vote will continue to own that share plus one Class C share without a vote.

The Class A shares will continue to trade under the “GOOG” ticker symbol, while the Class C shares will trade under a different ticker symbol, so stockholders will be able to trade these shares, just as they can with Class A shares today. Except for voting rights, the Class C shares will have the same rights as the existing Class A and Class B shares. As is typically the case with stock splits, the Class C stock dividend will be tax-free.

One thing to keep in mind is that immediately after the Class C dividend, all stockholders, including Larry, Sergey and Eric, will retain the same voting interest they hold prior to the dividend. In addition, Larry, Sergey and Eric have agreed to subject their shares to a Transfer Restriction Agreement. This agreement will maintain the same link between their voting and economic interests that exists today, even if they sell some of their non-voting Class C shares. If the founders or Eric wish to sell or transfer their non-voting Class C shares, a “stapling” provision in the agreement requires them to either sell an equal number of Class B shares, or convert an equal number of Class B shares into Class A shares. No other stockholders
will be subject to these restrictions upon the transfer or sale of their shares. The stapling requirement will terminate as to the founders when their collective ownership falls below a certain threshold, and as to Eric when his ownership falls below a certain threshold. Further details of the Transfer Restriction Agreement will be included in our proxy, but it’s important to note that the stapling provision is designed so that, subject to the thresholds, the votes held by the founders and Eric will be reduced proportionally as their economic interest in the company declines.

Our board of directors carefully considered this proposal to create a new class of stock before reaching a decision. In January 2011, the board established a special committee, comprised of independent, non-management board members to consider a new class of stock, or other alternatives. This committee retained its own financial and legal advisers to assist with its deliberations, and met on numerous occasions over the 15 months that the special committee considered the proposal separately from the board. The committee recommended, and the board unanimously approved, today’s proposal.

The proposal is subject to the approval of a majority of the voting power of Google’s common stock, voting together as a single class, at our annual meeting on June 21, 2012. Given that Larry, Sergey, and Eric control the majority of voting power and support this proposal, we expect it to pass. The Board of Directors has not set a record date for the issuance of the Class C dividend and currently expects to set the date following the annual meeting.

Next week, we’ll file a preliminary proxy statement with the SEC, which will contain further details regarding today’s proposal.

David Drummond
Chief Legal Officer, Google Inc.

But if last quarter’s earnings call is a guide, we’ll end up hearing a lot about CPC — the cost that Google charges search advertisers for every click.

Wall Street freaked out three months ago because Google’s CPC declined for the first time in years. And the same thing could happen this time out, as well — several analysts are predicting a 10 percent CPC drop for Q1 earnings today.

And if that does happen, Google executives will end up making the same argument they made last time: Chill out! If our prices have gone down, that’s no big deal, because we’re selling a lot more stuff. Microsoft has yet to slow Google’s growth, and Facebook doesn’t seem to be doing that, either.

This is a pretty persuasive argument, and this is what it looks like in chart form: A couple years’ worth of real and estimated search advertising growth, via Nomura analyst Brian Nowak. That growth doesn’t all accrue to Google, but as long as Google gets the lion’s share of it, it’s hard to get freaked out about pricing. You really can make it up on volume.

Speaking of volume:

Would you like to read about foreign currency exchange and hedging programs? I know.

But Google would like Wall Street to think a bit about those topics, since it is blaming them for part of its Q4 earnings report shortfall. Google insists it had a great quarter, but both its revenue and earnings numbers came in well below the consensus.

One reason for that, Google says, is fluctuating currency rates: “Had foreign exchange rates remained constant from Q3 2011 through Q4 2011, our revenue in Q4 2011 would have been $239M higher,” the company says. Which means the company would have been much closer to investors’ revenue estimates, for starters.

But analysts on the earnings call didn’t want to spend time talking about FX — they wanted to talk about CPC. That’s “cost-per-click” for Google’s core search ad business, and it dropped 8 percent over the quarter. Google insists that is a number that they shouldn’t obsess about, since it will fluctuate based on changes Google makes to its ad products, and as long as overall revenue is going up, it’s not a problem.

That answer, which they gave over and over, didn’t take, though. And at one point, Larry Page asked, semi-seriously, for analysts to stop asking about CPC. The next question was about CPC.

————–
EARLIER
First look at Google Q4 earnings: $8.13 billion and earnings of $9.50. Wall Street was expecting much more — something like $8.4 billion and $10.50 a share.

Investors are behaving the way you might expect — they’ve dropped the company’s share price by 9 percent, to $581, in after-hours trading. Earlier today, GOOG was trading as high as $640.

“Google had a really strong quarter, ending a great year,” CEO Larry Page says, in a statement that doesn’t seem to acknowledge any weakness or slowdown. He also says Google+, the search giant’s answer to Facebook, is now up to 90 million users.

Google hired more than 1,000 people in the last three months of the year. It now employs 32,467 full-time workers.

If you’re looking for a positive spin on today’s numbers, Google is happy to help. Q4 revenue was up 25 percent over the past year, it notes, and 9 percent more than Q3.

Here, again, is Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney’s guide to interpreting the numbers:

Google streams its earnings call (via YouTube, of course) but in case you’d like to spend your time doing something else, I’ll be listening in and taking live notes here at 4:30 pm ET:

4:30 pm: Good afternoon. Waiting for Google execs to come online to chat about Q4. Meanwhile, Google investors are shoveling shares out the door, and the stock is lurching, down more than 9 percent.

4:31 pm: Call is starting. On the line, the now-usual lineup: Larry Page, CFO Patrick Pichette, product head Susan Wojcicki, sales boss Nikesh Arora.

4:34 pm: Larry talking about “blowing past $10 billion” in revenue. Also the fact that David Beckham engaged in a Google+ “hangout” recently.

Larry talking about last week’s Google+ search revamp, “which I’m really excited about.” “To make a real impact in the world,” we need to shutter some stuff. We’ve turned off 12 projects in the last quarter, so we can double down on things like Chrome, Android, YouTube.

Android: 250 million devices, up 50 million in last quarter. Over 11 billion downloads from Android Market. “Wow.” (That’s from the script.)

“Chrome is on fire, too.” “People thought we were crazy. Who wants another browser?” But we were right!

Display (perhaps you’ve seen our piece in The Wall Street Journal just now). Now on a $5 billion run rate. DoubleClick up 130 percent year over year.

“Very pleased” with ads on YouTube.

That display ad run rate, by the way, is up 2x from October 2010.

4:40 pm: Now CFO Pichette. He’s also very pleased with the quarter. Walking through numbers:

Pichette talking up negative effects of foreign currency moves, which the company also stresses in its pullout slides. We’ll see if investors go for that (curious if analysts feel they have decent visibility into FX for GOOG).

Skipping most of these numbers, since you can get most of it from release and also via supplementary slides.

Pichette warns that Google will keep spending a lot on capex, and that that spend will be “lumpy.”

4:45 pm: Arora to talk about sales. “Strong performance across the portfolio.”

Arora lays in a series of numbers that don’t really register with me, in part because Page and Pichette just mentioned some of them. That display ad number is still quite amazing, though we would of course love to know how that’s split up between “regular” Web ads, YouTube and mobile.

Another shout-out for David Beckham. (Who I assume is still a big international star, even though I’m pretty sure the U.S. has moved on after a brief flirtation.)

An actual “shout-out”! To international business teams.

4:51 pm: Wojcicki, who starts by explaining/defending “Search plus Your World” changes rolled out earlier this month. More personalized results: Pictures friends have taken, article mom had shared, etc. Just like Facebook, which is the point.

Sorry, lost the string here. But really, this is the part that you can always skip during the call: A number-free brochure.

4:57 pm: Q&A:
Q: Did you see a big shift in mobile use over the holiday?
A: Larry: Nikesh, you answer. Nikesh: “Mobile growing by leaps and bounds.” “So yes, we are seeing tremendous usage, and we also saw uptick during holidays,” when people were looking for stuff.

Q: So is CPC decline because more people went through mobile?
A: Nikesh: Susan, you answer that. Susan: Two biggest factors were FX and changes we’ve made, which increase paid clicks — better for everyone — but those clicks may have a lower cost.

Q: What’s in that $5B display number? Same as the $2.5B number from October 2010?
A: Pichette: Yep — take out text, count mobile, count YouTube. Apples to apples.

Q: How did Europe affect numbers? Also, can you give us a sense of “blended TAC rate” for that $5B?
A: Not talking about $5B breakout. On the economy: “Quite a solid Q4 performance.” Separate from FX issues, Europe was “quite healthy, despite the environment.”

Q: YouTube. Can you give us a little more insight there? Are you seeing signs that TV ad budgets are coming to YouTube? Where are YouTube monies coming from?

A: Pichette: “YouTube is doing absolutely terrific.” Larry on YouTube ads: “Tremendously excited about our growth … but it’s not significant compared to the overall video space.” TV advertisers not thinking about it. (Which is the point of the channel strategy.)

Missed Q on Android. Here’s Larry Page’s answer: Early stages of monetization. We do make money on it via ads, and some people are buying apps, too (most downloads are free). “I’m very, very optimistic.”

5:06 pm: Q: More on CPC being down. Question involves “rank order,” so my head hurts.
A: Pichette: Panda search changes will show up next Q. FX changes we can’t do anything about.

[Missed next exchange]

5:09 pm: Q: Another CPC question. Talk more about this, please. Also, your traffic acquisition costs are up. Why?
Pichette. TAC increase is “just a mix issue.” (Mobile mix or partner mix? “Yes,” says Pichette.)
Wojciki: Like I said, FX and changes we made to ad quality are the reason that CPC is down. This quarter, we made a lot of changes. Quarter before, we did a lot, too. Some Q3 changes show up in Q4. “But not any one big one — it was the sum of many other changes.”

Oh, Google earnings call. You are defeating my powers of concentration.

Q: Discussion of hedging program. “Is this working the way you want?” Also, CPC seems to be going the way you want, even though it costs you money. Please talk about that.
A: Pichette gives answer about hedging that is 100 percent jibberjabber to me, because I can barely master a checking account.

Larry Page on CPC: “I do think that CPCs do vary a fair amount, and we’re not surprised by that.” Some changes we make will push it up, others down. Not that big a deal.

Q: Are you happy with the results over the quarter? A: Larry: Like I said, yes.

Wojciki: Instead of focusing on CPC decline, you should note that paid clicks are up 34 percent.
Page: Can the next question not be about CPC?

Q: Nope, it’s a question about CPC.
A: Pichette: Overall, you’re seeing more clicking, and we’re getting a better overall result. If CPC goes down for some reason, “that’s just the nature of experimentation.”

Q: Google+ question for Larry. Please describe how G+ can increase engagement on all properties.
Larry: Engaging with users, really deeply; really, really important. G+ really important part of that effort. Notion of identity really important. With “other big companies that work on social data … we’ve seen a general data to wall that garden off.” We like to partner with third parties. “But in general, companies have been walling that data off,” and we’d love to use it. (Here I would like to see the facial expressions of Dick Costolo and Mark Zuckerberg.)

Q: Do you need more markets for e-commerce play? Thirty markets right now.
A: Wojciki. Yes, we’re good. We’ll expand, but we need to learn from the places we’re in right now.

Q: Last year, in Q4, you talked about big changes “on the quality side.” Talk about that. Also, you hired less people this Q than in other Qs. Trend?
A: We talked about it last year, because it was a big deal. As far as hiring, Larry already said we were growing very fast — Larry interrupts here: “The edge of what was manageable” — so now we’ve slowed.

Last Q: More on Google Wallet, please. Are you going to double down on that? Also on Motorola: Given $12.5B size, won’t that affect “growth and margin profile”? So please talk about mobile philosophy.

A: Wojcicki: Like Larry said, we’re focusing on core products that people use every day, and you use you wallet every day, so it’s a big deal for us. “Very excited about Wallet, and will continue to invest in it.”

Larry: We’ll break out Motorola so you can see the results separately from the rest of the business. We’ve been clear that we will run it as a separate business, and won’t favor it compared to other OEMS (again, so why keep it?). Shows our commitment to Android, and how we want to keep “our freedom to innovate” (Translation: We need those patents.)

Pichette: Remember, for Q1, lots of resets every year at this time. So you won’t be surprised at the end of the quarter.

Alrighty, we’re done. Thanks for sticking around.

Fun weekend reading for the tech and media set: Demand Media’s S-1 filing, the first step it will take on the road to a public offering.

The S-1 doesn’t include lots of important information, like the amount of money Santa Monica, Calif.-based Demand–its CEO Richard Rosenblatt is pictured here–intends to raise* or the value it thinks it can get from Wall Street. UPDATE: Missed this in the first pass — the filing says the company could raise $125 million — a “proposed maximum offering price”.

But given that it’s the first time the private company has given the outside world a peek at its numbers, there is plenty in there to chew on, and I’ll be looking at it as long as my battery holds up this afternoon. (That was quick! All done for now, more later.)

First things first: Running a content farm, or factory, or whatever you’d like to call it is a big business. But it’s not profitable yet. Demand has generated revenue of $114 million this year and lost $22 million. Almost all of the money is coming from traffic, and advertising, that it generates from Yahoo (YHOO) and Google (GOOG)–Google in particular. The search engine accounts for 26 percent of Demand’s revenue (click image to enlarge).

More on the Google relationship, which appears to be tied to specific agreements that sunset over the next two years:

We use Google for cost-per-click advertising and search results on our owned and operated websites and on our network of customer websites, and receive a portion of the revenue generated by advertisements provided by Google on those websites. Our Google cost-per-click agreement for our developed websites, such as eHow, expires in the second quarter of 2012 and our Google cost-per-click agreement for our undeveloped websites expires in the first quarter of 2011. In addition, we also engage Google’s DoubleClick ad-serving platform to deliver advertisements to our developed websites and have another revenue-sharing agreement with respect to revenue generated by our content posted on Google’s Youtube.com, both of which are currently on year to year terms that expire in the fourth quarter of 2010.

As previously reported by the Financial Times, Goldman Sachs (GS) is leading the offering, followed by most of the big players who have been salivating for this: Morgan Stanley* (MS), Allen & Co, etc.

Here’s Demand’s Rosenblatt explaining the business in his own words in an interview with BoomTown’s Kara Swisher at the D8 conference:

*I had previously reported that JP Morgan was involved in the offering. My apologies.

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20100806/heres-the-big-ipo-youve-been-waiting-for-demand-media-files-with-the-sec/feed/ 2 http://allthingsd.com/20100226/twitters-ad-plan-copy-google/ http://allthingsd.com/20100226/twitters-ad-plan-copy-google/#comments Fri, 26 Feb 2010 17:04:21 +0000 Peter Kafka http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/?p=16768 What will Twitter’s long-awaited ad platform look like? Something like Google’s.

That’s the general description of Twitter’s plan, according to people who have been briefed by the company.

Here are the very broad strokes:

• Ads will be tied to Twitter searches, in the same way that Google’s (GOOG) original ads were. So a search for, say, “laptop,” may generate an ad for Dell (DELL). The ads will only show up in search results, which means users who don’t search for something won’t see them in their regular Twitterstreams.
• The ads will use the Twitter format–140 or fewer characters–and will be distributed via the third-party software and services that use Twitter’s API. The services will have the option of displaying the ads, and Twitter will share revenue with those that do.
• Twitter will work with ad agencies and buyers to seed the program, but plans on moving to a self-serve model like Google’s, down the road.

The caveats: Everyone I’ve talked to cautions that the plans are evolving and that there are plenty of details to work out. Including a launch date, though it seems as if the first half of this year is a very safe bet.

But at first blush, this seems like a relatively straightforward way for Twitter to get into advertising, without upsetting its growing user base: You won’t see the ads unless you use Twitter to search for something, and Twitter’s advertisers will have at least a vague idea of what you’re interested in.

There are lots of gritty details that Twitter either hasn’t worked out or hasn’t disclosed to the people I’ve talked to. For instance:

• How will advertisers buy and price the ads? Will they use a Google-like cost-per-click model or something else?
• Twitter searches are popular, but very crude. Can Twitter refine them to make them more useful to users?
• Google’s ads work because Google has reasonably good idea of both users’ intent and identity. Twitter knows much less about its users. How can it gather enough data to make its targeting more meaningful?

Twitter has been careful not to position its ad plan as the core of its business. And the company has made a point of stressing that its initial ad rollout, like other initiatives it’s launching this year, are merely “tests.”

That’s one of the of ideas behind the $100 million funding round Twitter closed last summer–it gives the company the time to play around with different business models. But this one seems to have plenty of potential.

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20100226/twitters-ad-plan-copy-google/feed/ 0 http://allthingsd.com/20100121/googles-q4-revenue-in-line-and-a-nice-earnings-bump/ http://allthingsd.com/20100121/googles-q4-revenue-in-line-and-a-nice-earnings-bump/#comments Thu, 21 Jan 2010 21:46:14 +0000 Peter Kafka http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/?p=15370 A first peek at Google’s Q4 earnings report: Revenue in line and a nice earnings bump. The search giant reported revenue of $4.95 billion and earnings of $6.79 per share. The Street was looking for revenue of $4.9 billion and $6.50 in earnings per share, per Yahoo (YHOO). (I’ve also seen lower “consensus” numbers for EPS in the $6.45-$6.48 range).

Google (GOOG) stock has lurched five percent lower in the first few minutes of after-hours trading, as investors digest the news. If you want to anthropomorphize the market, you might speculate that it’s bummed that CEO Eric Schmidt and company didn’t show a higher revenue lift. But if you’re keeping track, revenue is up 17 percent compared with last year, and up 12 percent from the previous quarter.

Here is Citigroup (C) analyst Mark Mahaney’s “cheatsheet” for those playing at home (click to enlarge):

And you can see the company’s profit and loss and balance sheet here.

Google will be using YouTube to livestream its earnings call, but I’ll be providing some annotation here starting at 4:30 pm Eastern. You can also check out the company’s accompanying slide presentation here, and here’s a chart it’s particularly proud of (click to enlarge):

I’m trying out a promising new liveblog tool, but please bear with me if there are bumps along the way.

On the call: CEO Eric Schmidt, CFO Patrick Pichette, product guy Jonathan Rosenberg, sales boss Nikesh Arora. No Larry or Sergey.

Schmidt declares that he’s very pleased with Q4: “An extraordinary end to a roller coaster year.”

Schmidt: Clearly, we were right to start ramping up investments and will continue to do so. We’re investing in people and investing in tech based on our “70/20/10″ rule: 70 percent in core products, 20 percent in new business like mobile/Android, and 10 percent in “long view” initiatives like commerce and social.

And of course, more mergers and acquisitions. We’re continuing on a pace of roughly one M&A per month, some small, some big.

Pichette runs through the numbers in the release above. He reiterates Schmidt’s line about continuing investments.

Jonathan Rosenberg has a cold, but gets his message across: “We made some very hard decisions” to shut down some products to focus on winners. It’s our “more wood behind fewer arrows approach.” We’re focusing on DoubleClick integration, Android expansion and the Chrome OS. “YouTube, is in fact, monetizing well,” and we hope our partners make money, too.

Obviously, going forward, we’re going to plow resources into search. But other stuff too. Social, for instance. Not just social networking, but all of our products should be “social.” This can apply to search, local search, etc. We’re also focusing on commerce, whether people are making their purchases online or offline.

More Rosenberg: Mobile is important, and so is moving enterprise to the cloud.

Arora: We improved throughout the year, and Q4 was strong. Large companies like Staples (SPLS) and Volvo are directing an increasing portion of spending online [as they're supposed to do].

Arora: Search ads are always a value in December! Costs go up but they get more effective because people buy more.

Arora: Brand marketers are increasing their spending too. YouTube has had many successful brand campaigns. Have you seen Fox’s “Avatar” ads? They’re great. Other shoutouts for Sony (SNE) and American Express (AXP).

Arora: Most of the top networks have signed onto AdX ad exchange since we launched it in the fall.

Time for Q&A.

Google’s U.S. revenue had a big jump, but international revenue did not accelerate as quickly. What gives?

Arora: In the U.S., we saw large advertisers shifting offline to online. Other markets have different issues; hence, the different growth rates.

Are we back to normal in regard to seasonal patterns? Also, can you talk about “materiality” of mobile?

Pichette: We won’t talk about mobile revenue in any concrete way.

Arora: There is some different performance by vertical. Finance, obviously, isn’t as strong as it used to be.

Another question about mobile: Is Google trying to push revenue? Profitability? Also, please talk about China.

Rosenberg: Advertisers are starting to figure out what works on mobile. For instance, adding a phone number or an offer for mobile helps a lot.

Pichette: Regarding mobile, we want to drive innovation that in turn drives people to the Web, which is better for us. That’s the core engine of mobile.

Schmidt: “China stuff has been well-covered in the press,” the CEO notes before recounting the China story. “We’re in conversations with the Chinese government,” and our business has remained unchanged. “But in a reasonably short time, we’ll be making some changes there.” That said, we’d still like to be in China.

Missed a question. Apologies.

Please talk about outperformance of network business vs. owned and operated. Also, what accounts for higher marketing costs?

Pichette: Nothing to talk about re: network versus O&O. Re expenses, we said we were going to ramp up investment and we put in more there because we can track the results and the return on investment.

Arora: Yep, some of that money was to support consumer launches.

You said search increased five times on mobile. So what does that mean for revenue per search? Also, please talk more about increased spending on marketing.

Pichette: We’re really pleased with the marketing experiments we’re running.

Rosenberg: Regarding mobile, the new formats, targeting tools and reporting we’re giving mobile advertisers is making a huge difference. But I won’t answer your question about revenue.

Missed another question here.

YouTube monetization: Can you give us some metrics on how much inventory you’re selling?

Arora: Nope. But it has “gone from being a nice-to-have” to essential.

Pichette: The Youtube homepage nearly sold out in Q4. Hope that’s useful.

Can you break out ad spending by advertiser size?

Arora: Large advertisers are moving online, which is good. Retail was strong in Q4. We’re working with smaller advertisers to “bring them into the fray.” But the discrepancy so far has been mainly seasonal.

Can you rank your core businesses in terms of growth potential? Also, what’s up with you and Apple (AAPL)?

Schmidt: We’ve been saying for a while that display is a big opportunity. One story you haven’t seen so far is how successful we’ve been in display, but that will come out in 2010. [Note to PR staff: Start pitching!]

And obviously, mobile is small now but will grow quickly.

“With respect to Apple, it’s probably better to say”…that as a former board member “I have a special spot for Apple in my heart.” They’re a very well run company and “they have some very good stuff coming” strong competitor, etc.

Schmidt on Nexus One: What it is really about is a new way of buying a phone. Nexus One itself is the first in a series of examples where you can buy the phone online and pick your carrier.

Is Bing having an impact on cost per click?

Rosenberg: We think out CPCs are generally not affected by competitors. Prices are set by buyers.

Can you talk about Nexus One’s impact on margin?

Pichette. Not really. We want to innovate, etc. Nexus One will have its own margin and that’s how we’re focused on building the business.

We’ve seen third-party data on mobile projecting that iPhone could account for 50 percent of mobile traffic. Does that make sense to you? Also, you have said that the Apple relationship is “stable.” So what are the odds that you’re going to continue to provide search on the iPhone?

Schmidt: We won’t talk about the market share of Apple. And we won’t “speculate about any deals of any kind–true, not true, rumored, not rumored.”

Given that new display products are so great, is there any notion that people are moving dollars from search to display?

Schmidt: Advertisers “don’t shift, they add.” They might maximize search to maximize revenue and they might spend on display for long-term growth, branding, etc.

Pichette thanks Googlers listening for all their hard work. There’s an auxilary call at 6 pm Eastern with Pichette and Rosenberg, but I won’t be able to cover that one.

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20100121/googles-q4-revenue-in-line-and-a-nice-earnings-bump/feed/ 0 http://allthingsd.com/20091015/goog-earns/ http://allthingsd.com/20091015/goog-earns/#comments Thu, 15 Oct 2009 20:00:30 +0000 John Paczkowski http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/?p=26695 The broader advertising recovery may take time, but search advertising is clearly beating a hasty path back toward normalcy. Or it is in Google’s case anyway.

Reporting third-quarter results after market close Thursday, Google (GOOG) topped estimates, posting net income that rose to $1.64 billion, or $5.13 a share, from $1.29 billion, or $4.06 a share in the same period last year. Net revenue for the period ended in September rose nearly one percent to $4.38 billion. Excluding items, earnings for the quarter were $5.89 a share. Consensus estimates had been calling for $5.42 a share and $4.24 billion in net revenue. The chart below shows revenue sources within Google (click to enlarge).

Impressive. Seems paid clicks grew 14 percent compared to the same period last year, and four percent compared to the prior period. Cost per click was down six percent year over year, but up five percent sequentially.

“Google had a strong quarter–we saw seven percent year-over-year revenue growth despite the tough economic conditions,” said CEO Eric Schmidt. “While there is a lot of uncertainty about the pace of economic recovery, we believe the worst of the recession is behind us and now feel confident about investing heavily in our future.”

Good to hear. Google’s shares, which have already risen more than 50 percent in the past six months, are on another upward tear. They rose 1.82 percent to $539.27 on the news in after-hours trading.

Earnings call highlights via The Wall Street Journal’s Andrew LaVallee:

4:32: Call starts. The cast is the same as last quarter: Mr. Schmidt, CEO; Patrick Pichette, CFO; Jonathan Rosenberg, SVP of product management; and for the first time, Nikesh Arora, president of global sales operations and business development. But there’s a twist–they’ll be using Google’s moderator to vet questions with voters. They vote on “the most relevant questions,” which go to the Google execs, the operator says.

4:35: “While there’s obviously a lot of uncertainty about the pace of the economic recovery, we believe the worst of the recession is behind us,” Schmidt says.

He adds that Google now has the confidence to invest “heavily” in its future. “It’s all good news from our perspective, at least in looking at the quarter.”

4:37: Says “we want to really get to the perfect search engine” and that many advertisers would like to spend more with Google if the company’s product allow them to do that.

4:38: Schmidt says “we’re open for business in making strategic acquisitions, both large and small.”

4:39: It’s Pichette’s turn. “At a high level, we’re very pleased with our Q3 results,” he says. The quarter benefited from growth in AdSense for content and display initiatives.

4:41: U.S. revenue up 4% to $2.8 billion. U.K. revenue decline affected by foreign exchange as well as ongoing macroeconomic weakness, Pichette says.

4:42: Operating expenses rose from the prior quarter, mostly due to payroll, equipment and facilities-related expenses.

“We believe the worst of the recession is behind us,” he says.

4:44: Brazil was a standout in Latin America, Arora says. We’re beginning to see signs of recovery in Europe and Africa, particularly Spain. In Asia, China performed strongly as an emerging market.

4:46: Looking at the display-advertising business, those have also shown strong results, he says.

On YouTube, new advertisers and partners are helping with monetization efforts. Ninety percent of the top 50 advertisers have run YouTube campaigns with successful results–recent examples include McDonald’s and Hewlett-Packard.

4:47: YouTube has signed deals with all four major record labels and several independent labels. Earlier today, Google announced a partnership with Channel 4 in the U.K., which will bring full-length programming to the video-sharing site.

4:48: Arora adds a personal shout-out to the sales team.

4:50: Rosenberg calls the new AdWords front-end one of the company’s biggest investments of the year. Advertisers have new reports, can run more efficient campaigns and can get new features faster thanks to the platform, he says.

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20091015/goog-earns/feed/ 0 http://allthingsd.com/20090309/ebay-plenty-of-options-to-unlock-value/ http://allthingsd.com/20090309/ebay-plenty-of-options-to-unlock-value/#comments Mon, 09 Mar 2009 16:03:37 +0000 Eric Savitz http://voices.allthingsd.com/?p=9263 On Wednesday, eBay (EBAY) will hold a meeting with analysts to discuss the current business and strategy. There is little expectation that the company will announce any dramatic moves, and concern about the health of the business remains high, as expressed by eBay’s surprisingly low P/E–the stock trades at just seven times expected 2009 results. Of the 29 analysts tracked by Thomson who follow the company, only four rate the stock a Buy or Strong Buy.

But Marianne Wolk, an analyst at Susquehanna Financial Group, one of the few outright bulls on the stock, asserts that eBay actually has a variety of options which could unlock substantial shareholder value. In a research note this morning, Wolk runs through a variety of ways that eBay could potentially re-energize the Street about the stock:

• Boost the value of PayPal through a strategic partnership with Google (GOOG). She notes that PayPal and eBay have massive amounts of data on consumer online shopping behavior that could be tremendously valuable in terms of ad targeting. “With PayPal’s conversion and spending data, Google could significantly improve ad targeting, raise click-through rates” and increase cost per click rates, she says.

Read the rest of this post

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20090309/ebay-plenty-of-options-to-unlock-value/feed/ 0 http://allthingsd.com/20081209/new-york-times-our-digital-ads-could-be-under-great-stress/ http://allthingsd.com/20081209/new-york-times-our-digital-ads-could-be-under-great-stress/#comments Tue, 09 Dec 2008 21:20:18 +0000 Peter Kafka http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/?p=1899 A glum quartet of New York Times (NYT) executives appeared at the UBS media conference today to repeat what they had already said via press release this morning: Business is grim, but we’re sure we’ll be OK. Also, anyone want to lend us money?

There was just a glimmer of news at the event, though it wasn’t surprising or pleasant: The Times’s Web business is falling away, day by day.

Digital head Martin Nisenholtz said revenue at his unit had been OK until the last two months of the year, but that there had been “softness in November, accelerating into December…next year is going to be a different year, by a fairly profound margin.”

Bear in mind that the Times’s digital performance pre-November was grim to begin with–digital revenue grew just 4.3 percent in October–and it becomes possible to imagine that digital revenue will decrease for at least part of 2009.

Nisenholtz didn’t do anything rash like attach any numbers to his comments, but he did add a little bit of color: His About.com unit, which is boosted by cost-per-click/search ads, is still doing OK-ish. But the business of selling display ads to Times Web sites is getting pummeled, and could be “under great stress” next year, he says.

So if About.com is doing (comparatively) well, why not sell that asset to help the paper escape its cash crunch? I asked CEO Janet Robinson that question after the event. She did everything but insist that the paper would never part with About.com, and praised it up and down–“an extremely important part of our digital future,” etc.

But given a couple chances to do so, she never explicitly ruled out a sale. Given the paper’s position, I don’t think she can.

[Image Credit: 1962 NYC Newspaper Strike photo from Life/Google archive)

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20081209/new-york-times-our-digital-ads-could-be-under-great-stress/feed/ 0