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		<title>Google's Q1: A Little Light, but Investors Get a "Stock Split"</title>
		<link>http://allthingsd.com/20120412/googles-q1-a-little-light/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Apr 2012 20:34:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Peter Kafka</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://allthingsd.com/?p=196026</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Revenues were just below Wall Street's expectations, and earnings were a touch higher. Meanwhile, a proposal to "effectively implement 2-for-1 stock split."]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://allthingsd.com/files/2012/04/larry_page.png"><img class="alignright size-full wp-image-196034" title="larry_page" src="http://allthingsd.com/files/2012/04/larry_page.png" alt="" width="380" height="285" /></a>A first look at <a href="http://investor.google.com/earnings/2012/Q1_google_earnings.html">Google Q1 earnings</a>: Revenues of $8.1 billion and earnings of $10.08 a share. Wall Street was looking for revenues of about $8.15 billion and earnings of $9.65 a share.</p>
<p>The cost-per-click number, which freaked out Wall Street last quarter, was down another 12 percent. That&#8217;s a bigger drop than many analysts had predicted.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Google is creating a new class of non-voting stock, which it says will end up creating a 2-1 stock split. Here&#8217;s a brief explanation via CEO Larry Page&#8217;s<a href="https://plus.google.com/106189723444098348646/posts"> Google+ </a>page:</p>
<blockquote class="memo"><p>Effectively a Stock Split: And a New Class of Stock</p>
<p>Today we announced plans to create a new class of non-voting capital stock, which will be listed on NASDAQ. These shares will be distributed via a stock dividend to all existing stockholders: the owner of each existing share will receive one new share of the non-voting stock, giving investors twice the number of shares they had before. It’s effectively a two-for-one stock split — something many of our investors have long asked us for. These non-voting shares will be available for corporate uses, like equity-based employee compensation, that might otherwise dilute our governance structure.</p></blockquote>
<p>So is Google planning on another big, Motorola-sized deal that&#8217;s planning on using stock? No, Page says: &#8220;We don’t have an unusually big acquisition planned, in case you were wondering.&#8221;</p>
<p>This is technically a &#8220;proposal,&#8221; but since Page, Sergey Brin and Eric Schmidt effectively control Google already, it&#8217;s a foregone conclusion &#8212; which is exactly the concentration of power the move is supposed to sustain. It should go into effect later this summer.</p>
<p>My colleague Liz Gannes is live-blogging the earnings call <a href="http://allthingsd.com/20120412/live-from-google-q1-earnings-a-new-class-of-stock-eight-years-after-going-public/?mod=atdtweet">here</a>; you can also listen in for yourself via <a href="http://www.youtube.com/googleir">YouTube</a>.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney&#8217;s &#8220;cheat sheet&#8221; to help you interpret the numbers:<br />
<a href="http://allthingsd.com/files/2012/04/Mark-Mahaney-Google-Q1.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-196037" title="Mark Mahaney Google Q1" src="http://allthingsd.com/files/2012/04/Mark-Mahaney-Google-Q1.png" alt="" width="640" height="227" /></a></p>
<p>And here&#8217;s the entire text of Page&#8217;s Founders&#8217; Letter, followed by a statement from chief legal officer David Drummond:</p>
<blockquote class="memo"><p>FOUNDERS’ LETTER 2012</p>
<p>Introduction</p>
<p>Throughout our evolution, from privately held start-up to large, publicly listed company, we have managed Google for the long term — enjoying tremendous success as a result, especially since our IPO in 2004. Sergey and I hoped, though we did not expect, that Google would have such significant impact, and this progress has made us even more impatient to do important things that matter in the world. Our enduring love for Google comes from a strong desire to create technology products that enrich millions of people’s lives in deep and meaningful ways. To fulfill these dreams, we need to ensure that Google remains a successful, growing business that can generate significant returns for everyone involved.</p>
<p>Corporate Structure</p>
<p>When we went public, we created a dual-class voting structure. Our goal was to maintain the freedom to focus on the long term by ensuring that the management team, in particular Eric, Sergey and I, retained control over Google’s destiny. As we explained in our first founders’ letter:</p>
<p>“We are creating a corporate structure that is designed for stability over long time horizons. By investing in Google, you are placing an unusual long term bet on the team, especially Sergey and me, and on our innovative approach&#8230;</p>
<p>We want Google to become an important and significant institution. That takes time, stability and independence&#8230;</p>
<p>In the transition to public ownership, we have set up a corporate structure that will make it harder for outside parties to take over or influence Google. This structure will also make it easier for our management team to follow the long term, innovative approach emphasized earlier&#8230;</p>
<p>The main effect of this structure is likely to leave our team, especially Sergey and me, with increasingly significant control over the company&#8217;s decisions and fate, as Google shares change hands&#8230;</p>
<p>New investors will fully share in Google&#8217;s long term economic future but will have little ability to influence its strategic decisions through their voting rights&#8230;</p>
<p>Our colleagues will be able to trust that they themselves and their labors of hard work, love and creativity will be well cared for by a company focused on stability and the long term&#8230;</p>
<p>As an investor, you are placing a potentially risky long term bet on the team, especially Sergey and me. …. Sergey and I are committed to Google for the long term.”</p>
<p>I wanted to quote all that because these were the clear, well-publicized expectations we established for investors in 2004. While this decision was controversial at the time, we believe with hindsight it was absolutely the right thing to do. Eight years later, these statements are still remarkably accurate, and everyone involved has realized tremendous benefits as a result. Given Google’s success, it’s unsurprising that this type of dual-class governance structure is now somewhat standard among newer technology companies.</p>
<p>In our experience, success is more likely if you concentrate on the long term. Technology products often require significant investment over many years to fulfill their potential. For example, it took over three years just to ship our first Android handset, and then another three years on top of that before the operating system truly reached critical mass. These kinds of investments are not for the faint-hearted.</p>
<p>We have protected Google from outside pressures and the temptation to sacrifice future opportunities to meet short-term demands. Long-term product investments, like Chrome and YouTube, which now enjoy phenomenal usage, were made with a significant degree of independence.</p>
<p>We have a structure that prevents outside parties from taking over or unduly influencing our management decisions. However, day-to-day dilution from routine equity-based employee compensation and other possible dilution, such as stock-based acquisitions, will likely undermine this dual-class structure and our aspirations for Google over the very long term. We have put our hearts into Google and hope to do so for many more years to come. So we want to ensure that our corporate structure can sustain these efforts and our desire to improve the world.</p>
<p>Effectively a Stock Split: And a New Class of Stock</p>
<p>Today we announced plans to create a new class of non-voting capital stock, which will be listed on NASDAQ. These shares will be distributed via a stock dividend to all existing stockholders: the owner of each existing share will receive one new share of the non-voting stock, giving investors twice the number of shares they had before. It’s effectively a two-for-one stock split — something many of our investors have long asked us for. These non-voting shares will be available for corporate uses, like equity-based employee compensation, that might otherwise dilute our governance structure.</p>
<p>We recognize that some people, particularly those who opposed this structure at the start, won’t support this change — and we understand that other companies have been very successful with more traditional governance models. But after careful consideration with our board of directors, we have decided that maintaining this founder-led approach is in the best interests of Google, our shareholders and our users. Having the flexibility to use stock without diluting our structure will help ensure we are set up for success for decades to come.</p>
<p>In November 2009, Sergey and I published plans to sell a modest percentage of our overall stock, ending in 2015. We are currently halfway through those plans and we don’t expect any changes to that, certainly not as the result of this new potential class. We both remain very much committed to Google for the long term.</p>
<p>It’s important to bear in mind that this proposal will only have an effect on governance over the very long term. In fact, there’s no particular urgency to make these changes now — we don’t have an unusually big acquisition planned, in case you were wondering. It’s just that since we know what we want to do, there’s no reason to delay the decision. Also note that there will be no immediate change in votes, because everyone will still have the same number. In addition, Eric, Sergey and I have all agreed to “stapling” arrangements so that, above set thresholds, if our economic interest in Google were to decline, our votes would as well. We also have provisions to ensure all shareholders are treated fairly from an economic perspective.</p>
<p>For more details on all of this, please see the postscript below from our Chief Legal Officer, David Drummond, and the preliminary proxy statement we will file with the SEC next week.</p>
<p>Conclusion</p>
<p>We have always managed Google for the long term, investing heavily in the big bets we hope will make a significant difference in the world. Some of these bets have been tremendous, funding our activities and generating significant gains for our shareholders. Others have been less successful. But the ability to take these kinds of risks has been crucial to Google’s overall success and we aim to maintain this pioneering culture going forward.</p>
<p>The proposal we announced today is consistent with the governance philosophy we articulated when we took the company public, as well as the trend for newer technology companies to adopt strong dual-class<br />
structures. We believe that it will provide great competitive strength — insulating Google from short-term pressures, whatever the source, for a long time to come, while also giving us more flexibility around equity grants.</p>
<p>Investors and others have always taken a big bet on us, the founders, and that bet will likely last longer as a result of these changes. We are honored that so many of you have put your trust in us and we recognize the tremendous responsibility that rests on our shoulders. We think this is a good thing because users rely on Google to produce and operate amazing technology products and to safely and responsibly store their data. This is our passion.</p>
<p>Sergey and I share a profound belief in the potential for technology to improve people’s lives and we are enormously excited about what lies ahead. I couldn’t write a better conclusion to this founder’s letter than what we wrote in 2004&#8230; so here goes: “We have a strong commitment to our users worldwide, their communities, the web sites in our network, our advertisers, our investors, and of course our employees. Sergey and I, and the team will do our best to make Google a long term success and the world a better place.”</p>
<p>Larry Page<br />
CEO and Co-founder</p>
<p>Sergey Brin<br />
Co-founder</p>
<p>April 2012</p>
<p>Postscript from David Drummond, Chief Legal Officer, Google Inc.</p>
<p>This is not the usual yada yada&#8230; so please read on.</p>
<p>Although we’ll be filing a comprehensive proxy statement soon, I wanted to share some details about today’s proposal to create a new class of stock and the process our board of directors followed to approve it.</p>
<p>As Larry and Sergey note above, the stock dividend we are announcing today will have the basic effect of a two-for-one stock split. Each holder of a share of Class A or Class B common stock will receive one share of the new non-voting Class C capital stock. So after the dividend, a stockholder who currently owns one Class A share with a single vote will continue to own that share plus one Class C share without a vote.</p>
<p>The Class A shares will continue to trade under the “GOOG” ticker symbol, while the Class C shares will trade under a different ticker symbol, so stockholders will be able to trade these shares, just as they can with Class A shares today. Except for voting rights, the Class C shares will have the same rights as the existing Class A and Class B shares. As is typically the case with stock splits, the Class C stock dividend will be tax-free.</p>
<p>One thing to keep in mind is that immediately after the Class C dividend, all stockholders, including Larry, Sergey and Eric, will retain the same voting interest they hold prior to the dividend. In addition, Larry, Sergey and Eric have agreed to subject their shares to a Transfer Restriction Agreement. This agreement will maintain the same link between their voting and economic interests that exists today, even if they sell some of their non-voting Class C shares. If the founders or Eric wish to sell or transfer their non-voting Class C shares, a “stapling” provision in the agreement requires them to either sell an equal number of Class B shares, or convert an equal number of Class B shares into Class A shares. No other stockholders<br />
will be subject to these restrictions upon the transfer or sale of their shares. The stapling requirement will terminate as to the founders when their collective ownership falls below a certain threshold, and as to Eric when his ownership falls below a certain threshold. Further details of the Transfer Restriction Agreement will be included in our proxy, but it’s important to note that the stapling provision is designed so that, subject to the thresholds, the votes held by the founders and Eric will be reduced proportionally as their economic interest in the company declines.</p>
<p>Our board of directors carefully considered this proposal to create a new class of stock before reaching a decision. In January 2011, the board established a special committee, comprised of independent, non-management board members to consider a new class of stock, or other alternatives. This committee retained its own financial and legal advisers to assist with its deliberations, and met on numerous occasions over the 15 months that the special committee considered the proposal separately from the board. The committee recommended, and the board unanimously approved, today’s proposal.</p>
<p>The proposal is subject to the approval of a majority of the voting power of Google’s common stock, voting together as a single class, at our annual meeting on June 21, 2012. Given that Larry, Sergey, and Eric control the majority of voting power and support this proposal, we expect it to pass. The Board of Directors has not set a record date for the issuance of the Class C dividend and currently expects to set the date following the annual meeting.</p>
<p>Next week, we’ll file a preliminary proxy statement with the SEC, which will contain further details regarding today’s proposal.</p>
<p>David Drummond<br />
Chief Legal Officer, Google Inc.</p></blockquote>
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		<title>Google Earnings Preview: Sell More, Charge Less, Be Happy</title>
		<link>http://allthingsd.com/20120412/google-earnings-preview-sell-more-charge-less-be-happy/</link>
		<comments>http://allthingsd.com/20120412/google-earnings-preview-sell-more-charge-less-be-happy/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Apr 2012 15:25:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Peter Kafka</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://allthingsd.com/?p=195851</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Google's prices may be dropping, but that shouldn't freak investors out.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://allthingsd.com/files/2012/04/google-guys-go-for-a-drive.jpeg"><img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-193691" title="google-guys-go-for-a-drive" src="http://allthingsd.com/files/2012/04/google-guys-go-for-a-drive-380x271.jpg" alt="" width="380" height="271" /></a>You want to hear Larry Page and company talk about Android and Google+ and YouTube and maybe even <a href="http://allthingsd.com/20120404/google-unveils-project-glass-wearable-augmented-reality-glasses/">Google Goggles</a> this afternoon? Me, too.</p>
<p>But if <a href="http://allthingsd.com/20120119/google-comes-in-light-for-q4/">last quarter&#8217;s earnings call is a guide</a>, we&#8217;ll end up hearing a lot about CPC &#8212; the cost that Google charges search advertisers for every click.</p>
<p>Wall Street freaked out three months ago because Google&#8217;s CPC declined for the first time in years. And the same thing could happen this time out, as well &#8212; several analysts are predicting a 10 percent CPC drop for Q1 earnings today.</p>
<p>And if that does happen, Google executives will end up making the same argument they made last time: <em>Chill out! If our prices have gone down, that&#8217;s no big deal, because we&#8217;re selling a lot more stuff</em>. Microsoft has yet to slow Google&#8217;s growth, and Facebook doesn&#8217;t seem to be doing that, either.</p>
<p>This is a pretty persuasive argument, and this is what it looks like in chart form: A couple years&#8217; worth of real and estimated search advertising growth, via Nomura analyst Brian Nowak. That growth doesn&#8217;t all accrue to Google, but as long as Google gets the lion&#8217;s share of it, it&#8217;s hard to get freaked out about pricing. You really can make it up on volume.</p>
<p><a href="http://allthingsd.com/files/2012/04/search-spend-increase-nomura.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-195886" title="search spend increase nomura" src="http://allthingsd.com/files/2012/04/search-spend-increase-nomura.png" alt="" width="525" height="378" /></a></p>
<p>Speaking of volume:</p>
<p><iframe id="NBC Video Widget" src="http://www.nbc.com/assets/video/widget/widget.html?vid=229045" frameborder="0" width="512" height="347"></iframe></p>
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		<title>Google Points to FX After Revenue Miss; Analysts Harp on CPC</title>
		<link>http://allthingsd.com/20120119/google-comes-in-light-for-q4/</link>
		<comments>http://allthingsd.com/20120119/google-comes-in-light-for-q4/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Jan 2012 21:28:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Peter Kafka</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://allthingsd.com/?p=165573</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Fun with acronyms after Google's numbers come in below Wall Street's expectations.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://allthingsd.com/files/2011/06/google_stormclouds.jpg"><img class="alignright size-full wp-image-90924" title="google_stormclouds" src="http://allthingsd.com/files/2011/06/google_stormclouds.jpg" alt="" width="360" height="270" /></a></p>
<p>Would you like to read about foreign currency exchange and hedging programs? I know.</p>
<p>But Google would like Wall Street to think a bit about those topics, since it is blaming them for part of its Q4 earnings report shortfall. Google insists it had a great quarter, but both its revenue and earnings numbers came in well below the consensus.</p>
<p>One reason for that, Google says, is fluctuating currency rates: &#8220;Had foreign exchange rates remained constant from Q3 2011 through Q4 2011, our revenue in Q4 2011 would have been $239M higher,&#8221; the company says. Which means the company would have been much closer to investors&#8217; revenue estimates, for starters.</p>
<p>But analysts on the earnings call didn&#8217;t want to spend time talking about FX &#8212; they wanted to talk about CPC. That&#8217;s &#8220;cost-per-click&#8221; for Google&#8217;s core search ad business, and it dropped 8 percent over the quarter. Google insists that is a number that they shouldn&#8217;t obsess about, since it will fluctuate based on changes Google makes to its ad products, and as long as overall revenue is going up, it&#8217;s not a problem. </p>
<p>That answer, which they gave over and over, didn&#8217;t take, though. And at one point, Larry Page asked, semi-seriously, for analysts to stop asking about CPC. The next question was about CPC.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8211;<br />
<strong>EARLIER</strong><br />
First look at <a href="http://investor.google.com/earnings/2011/Q4_google_earnings.html">Google Q4 earnings</a>: $8.13 billion and earnings of $9.50. <a href="http://allthingsd.com/20120119/yawn-and-get-ready-for-another-giant-quarter-from-google/">Wall Street was expecting much more</a> &#8212; something like $8.4 billion and $10.50 a share.</p>
<p>Investors are behaving the way you might expect &#8212; they&#8217;ve dropped the company&#8217;s share price by 9 percent, to $581, in after-hours trading. Earlier today, GOOG was trading as high as $640.</p>
<p>&#8220;Google had a really strong quarter, ending a great year,&#8221; CEO Larry Page says, in a statement that doesn&#8217;t seem to acknowledge any weakness or slowdown. He also says Google+, the search giant&#8217;s answer to Facebook, is now up to 90 million users.</p>
<p>Google hired more than 1,000 people in the last three months of the year. It now employs 32,467 full-time workers.</p>
<p>If you&#8217;re looking for a positive spin on today&#8217;s numbers, Google is happy to help. Q4 revenue was up 25 percent over the past year, it notes, and 9 percent more than Q3.</p>
<p>Here, again, is Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney&#8217;s guide to interpreting the numbers:<br />
<a href="http://allthingsd.com/files/2012/01/google-q4-citi-cheat-sheet.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-165151" title="google q4 citi cheat sheet" src="http://allthingsd.com/files/2012/01/google-q4-citi-cheat-sheet.png" alt="" width="640" height="238" /></a></p>
<p>Google streams its earnings call (via <a href="http://www.youtube.com/googleir">YouTube</a>, of course) but in case you&#8217;d like to spend your time doing something else, I&#8217;ll be listening in and taking live notes here at 4:30 pm ET:</p>
<p><strong>4:30 pm</strong>: Good afternoon. Waiting for Google execs to come online to chat about Q4. Meanwhile, Google investors are shoveling shares out the door, and the stock is lurching, down more than 9 percent.</p>
<p><strong>4:31 pm</strong>: Call is starting. On the line, the now-usual lineup: Larry Page, CFO Patrick Pichette, product head Susan Wojcicki, sales boss Nikesh Arora.</p>
<p><strong>4:34 pm</strong>: Larry talking about &#8220;blowing past $10 billion&#8221; in revenue. Also the fact that David Beckham engaged in a Google+ &#8220;hangout&#8221; recently.</p>
<p>Larry talking about last week&#8217;s Google+ search revamp, &#8220;which I&#8217;m really excited about.&#8221; &#8220;To make a real impact in the world,&#8221; we need to shutter some stuff. We&#8217;ve turned off 12 projects in the last quarter, so we can double down on things like Chrome, Android, YouTube.</p>
<p>Android: 250 million devices, up 50 million in last quarter. Over 11 billion downloads from Android Market. &#8220;Wow.&#8221; (That&#8217;s from the script.)</p>
<p>&#8220;Chrome is on fire, too.&#8221; &#8220;People thought we were crazy. Who wants another browser?&#8221; But we were right!</p>
<p>Display (perhaps you&#8217;ve seen our piece in The Wall Street Journal just now). Now on a $5 billion run rate. DoubleClick up 130 percent year over year.</p>
<p>&#8220;Very pleased&#8221; with ads on YouTube.</p>
<p>That display ad run rate, by the way, is up 2x <a href="http://allthingsd.com/20101014/google-q3-beats-earnings-estimates/">from October 2010</a>. </p>
<p><strong>4:40 pm</strong>: Now CFO Pichette. He&#8217;s also very pleased with the quarter. Walking through numbers:</p>
<p>Pichette talking up negative effects of foreign currency moves, which the company also stresses in its pullout slides. We&#8217;ll see if investors go for that (curious if analysts feel they have decent visibility into FX for GOOG).</p>
<p>Skipping most of these numbers, since you can get most of it from release and also via <a href="http://investor.google.com/pdf/2011Q4_google_earnings_slides.pdf">supplementary slides</a>.</p>
<p>Pichette warns that Google will keep spending a lot on capex, and that that spend will be &#8220;lumpy.&#8221;</p>
<p><strong>4:45 pm</strong>: Arora to talk about sales. &#8220;Strong performance across the portfolio.&#8221;</p>
<p>Arora lays in a series of numbers that don&#8217;t really register with me, in part because Page and Pichette just mentioned some of them. That display ad number is still quite amazing, though we would of course love to know how that&#8217;s split up between &#8220;regular&#8221; Web ads, YouTube and mobile.</p>
<p>Another shout-out for David Beckham. (Who I assume is still a big international star, even though I&#8217;m pretty sure the U.S. has moved on after a brief flirtation.)</p>
<p>An actual &#8220;shout-out&#8221;! To international business teams.</p>
<p><strong>4:51 pm</strong>: Wojcicki, who starts by explaining/defending &#8220;Search plus Your World&#8221; changes rolled out earlier this month. More personalized results: Pictures friends have taken, article mom had shared, etc. Just like Facebook, which is the point.</p>
<p>Sorry, lost the string here. But really, this is the part that you can always skip during the call: A number-free brochure.</p>
<p><strong>4:57 pm</strong>: Q&#038;A:<br />
Q: Did you see a big shift in mobile use over the holiday?<br />
A: Larry: Nikesh, you answer. Nikesh: &#8220;Mobile growing by leaps and bounds.&#8221; &#8220;So yes, we are seeing tremendous usage, and we also saw uptick during holidays,&#8221; when people were looking for stuff.</p>
<p>Q: So is CPC decline because more people went through mobile?<br />
A: Nikesh: Susan, you answer that. Susan: Two biggest factors were FX and changes we&#8217;ve made, which increase paid clicks &#8212; better for everyone &#8212; but those clicks may have a lower cost.</p>
<p>Q: What&#8217;s in that $5B display number? Same as the $2.5B number from October 2010?<br />
A: Pichette: Yep &#8212; take out text, count mobile, count YouTube. Apples to apples.</p>
<p>Q: How did Europe affect numbers? Also, can you give us a sense of &#8220;blended TAC rate&#8221; for that $5B?<br />
A: Not talking about $5B breakout. On the economy: &#8220;Quite a solid Q4 performance.&#8221; Separate from FX issues, Europe was &#8220;quite healthy, despite the environment.&#8221;</p>
<p>Q: YouTube. Can you give us a little more insight there? Are you seeing signs that TV ad budgets are coming to YouTube? Where are YouTube monies coming from?</p>
<p>A: Pichette: &#8220;YouTube is doing absolutely terrific.&#8221; Larry on YouTube ads: &#8220;Tremendously excited about our growth &#8230; but it&#8217;s not significant compared to the overall video space.&#8221; TV advertisers not thinking about it. (Which is the point of the channel strategy.)</p>
<p>Missed Q on Android. Here&#8217;s Larry Page&#8217;s answer: Early stages of monetization. We do make money on it via ads, and some people are buying apps, too (most downloads are free). &#8220;I&#8217;m very, very optimistic.&#8221;</p>
<p><strong>5:06 pm</strong>: Q: More on CPC being down. Question involves &#8220;rank order,&#8221; so my head hurts.<br />
A: Pichette: Panda search changes will show up next Q. FX changes we can&#8217;t do anything about.</p>
<p>[Missed next exchange]</p>
<p><strong>5:09 pm</strong>: Q: Another CPC question. Talk more about this, please. Also, your traffic acquisition costs are up. Why?<br />
Pichette. TAC increase is &#8220;just a mix issue.&#8221; (Mobile mix or partner mix? &#8220;Yes,&#8221; says Pichette.)<br />
Wojciki: Like I said, FX and changes we made to ad quality are the reason that CPC is down. This quarter, we made a lot of changes. Quarter before, we did a lot, too. Some Q3 changes show up in Q4. &#8220;But not any one big one &#8212; it was the sum of many other changes.&#8221;</p>
<p>Oh, Google earnings call. You are defeating my powers of concentration.</p>
<p>Q: Discussion of hedging program. &#8220;Is this working the way you want?&#8221; Also, CPC seems to be going the way you want, even though it costs you money. Please talk about that.<br />
A: Pichette gives answer about hedging that is 100 percent jibberjabber to me, because I can barely master a checking account.</p>
<p>Larry Page on CPC: &#8220;I do think that CPCs do vary a fair amount, and we&#8217;re not surprised by that.&#8221; Some changes we make will push it up, others down. Not that big a deal.</p>
<p>Q: Are you happy with the results over the quarter? A: Larry: Like I said, yes.</p>
<p>Wojciki: Instead of focusing on CPC decline, you should note that paid clicks are up 34 percent.<br />
Page: Can the next question not be about CPC?</p>
<p>Q: Nope, it&#8217;s a question about CPC.<br />
A: Pichette: Overall, you&#8217;re seeing more clicking, and we&#8217;re getting a better overall result. If CPC goes down for some reason, &#8220;that&#8217;s just the nature of experimentation.&#8221;</p>
<p>Q: Google+ question for Larry. Please describe how G+ can increase engagement on all properties.<br />
Larry: Engaging with users, really deeply; really, really important. G+ really important part of that effort. Notion of identity really important. With &#8220;other big companies that work on social data &#8230; we&#8217;ve seen a general data to wall that garden off.&#8221; We like to partner with third parties. &#8220;But in general, companies have been walling that data off,&#8221; and we&#8217;d love to use it. (Here I would like to see the facial expressions of Dick Costolo and Mark Zuckerberg.)</p>
<p>Q: Do you need more markets for e-commerce play? Thirty markets right now.<br />
A: Wojciki. Yes, we&#8217;re good. We&#8217;ll expand, but we need to learn from the places we&#8217;re in right now.</p>
<p>Q: Last year, in Q4, you talked about big changes &#8220;on the quality side.&#8221; Talk about that. Also, you hired less people this Q than in other Qs. Trend?<br />
A: We talked about it last year, because it was a big deal. As far as hiring, Larry already said we were growing very fast &#8212; Larry interrupts here: &#8220;The edge of what was manageable&#8221; &#8212; so now we&#8217;ve slowed.</p>
<p>Last Q: More on Google Wallet, please. Are you going to double down on that? Also on Motorola: Given $12.5B size, won&#8217;t that affect &#8220;growth and margin profile&#8221;? So please talk about mobile philosophy.</p>
<p>A: Wojcicki: Like Larry said, we&#8217;re focusing on core products that people use every day, and you use you wallet every day, so it&#8217;s a big deal for us. &#8220;Very excited about Wallet, and will continue to invest in it.&#8221;</p>
<p>Larry: We&#8217;ll break out Motorola so you can see the results separately from the rest of the business. We&#8217;ve been clear that we will run it as a separate business, and won&#8217;t favor it compared to other OEMS (again, so why keep it?). Shows our commitment to Android, and how we want to keep &#8220;our freedom to innovate&#8221; (Translation: We need those patents.)</p>
<p>Pichette: Remember, for Q1, lots of resets every year at this time. So you won&#8217;t be surprised at the end of the quarter.</p>
<p>Alrighty, we&#8217;re done. Thanks for sticking around.</p>
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		<title>Google&#039;s Victory Dance: Check Out Our Go-Go Numbers!</title>
		<link>http://allthingsd.com/20101014/google-q3-beats-earnings-estimates/</link>
		<comments>http://allthingsd.com/20101014/google-q3-beats-earnings-estimates/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 14 Oct 2010 22:45:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Peter Kafka</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/?p=24548</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[After showing off financial numbers that blew away Wall Street's earnings estimates, what could Google do for an encore? Trot out even more numbers, via a tantalizing but not-that-revealing striptease.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/files/2010/10/Striptease.jpg"><img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-24574" title="Striptease" src="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/files/2010/10/Striptease-210x300.jpg" alt="" width="210" height="300" /></a>After showing off financial numbers that blew away Wall Street&#8217;s earnings estimates, what could Google do for an encore? Trot out even more numbers, via a tantalizing but not-that-revealing striptease.</p>
<p>Here are the three data points that the search giant showed off during its earnings call this afternoon. All of them &#8220;begin with the letter B,&#8221; as product SVP Google Jonathan Rosenberg noted, and all of them come with caveats:</p>
<ul>
<li>$2.5 billion: Non-text display ad revenue run rate. That number includes ads from its DoubleClick unit as well as YouTube.</li>
<li>2 billion: YouTube monetized views per week.</li>
<li>$1 billion: Mobile annualized revenue run rate.</li>
</ul>
<p>All of those seem big&#8211;and they are! But they&#8217;re also deliberately fuzzy enough that it&#8217;s hard to tell exactly what they mean.</p>
<p>For instance: As <a href="http://twitter.com/#!/hblodget/statuses/27375095401">Henry Blodget</a> notes, those display-ad dollars are gross revenue, which means that Google only keeps a portion of them. And while that two billion YouTube views number is up from a billion a year ago, it&#8217;s proportionally the same: A year ago YouTube said it was monetizing a billion views a week while serving up a billion views a day; now the video site says two billion views a week and two billion a day.</p>
<p>Meanwhile Google officials, who routinely announce that YouTube is close to profitability, refused to tell analysts whether YouTube is actually profitable.</p>
<p>No matter! The point of b-as-in-big numbers was to impress Wall Street with Google&#8217;s ability to create new revenue streams beyond its core search ads. And the data, along with the company&#8217;s impressive Q3 performance, seems to have worked: Shares are up nine percent in after-hours trading.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;</p>
<p>EARLIER</p>
<p>There&#8217;s the beat Wall Street was <a href="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/20101014/windmills-and-robot-cars-are-great-but-time-to-talk-about-googles-ad-business/">looking for</a>. Google <a href="http://investor.google.com/earnings/2010/Q3_google_earnings.html">reports</a> earnings of $7.67 a share and net revenues of $5.48 billion. The consensus was for $6.67 and $5.25 billion. GAAP EPS was $6.72.</p>
<p>Google (GOOG) has been plowing money into capital expenditures and people&#8211;it now has 23,300 employees, up from 21,800  months ago, a 6.8 percent increase&#8211;but it has been able to keep operating income quite healthy, anyway. Adjusted operating income was $2.93 billion, well above the $2.77 billion consensus.</p>
<p>GOOG is up considerably, now seven percent, in after-hours trading. Robot cars for all!</p>
<p>You can listen to (and watch) Google&#8217;s 4:30 pm ET earnings call by clicking on this <a href="http://www.youtube.com/googleir">YouTube</a> link. I&#8217;ll add updates from the earnings call occasionally starting here:</p>
<p>As in recent quarters, CEO Eric Schmidt is sitting this one out.</p>
<p>CFO Patrick Pichette starts off. Aha! Teases that &#8220;we may have&#8221; Schmidt available for the first 30 minutes of Q&amp;A before he gets on a GooglePlane.</p>
<p>300 of those new 1,500 employees came from acquisitions.</p>
<p>Discussion of &#8220;long-term&#8221; growth&#8211;&#8221;the next 5 to 10 years.&#8221; &#8220;Simply put, we&#8217;re on this growth agenda at full throttle&#8230;investing heavily in people and in product.&#8221;</p>
<p>There&#8217;s a &#8220;war for talent&#8221; in our industry, which is &#8220;out of synch&#8221; with the broader economy. Currently exploring how to attract and retain people. Winners and losers determined by this battle.</p>
<p>Re: Product investment, which you&#8217;ll hear about from product SVP Jonathan Rosenberg. He&#8217;s going to tell you about some numbers, but don&#8217;t expect to hear an update on these&#8211;they&#8217;re merely &#8220;proof points&#8221; about Google&#8217;s success.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s Rosenberg, teasing new previously unreleased numbers.</p>
<p>Here they come. Starting with search and Google Instant:</p>
<p>Impact has been &#8220;very minimal&#8221; on revenue and &#8220;quite expensive&#8221; from a resource perspective.</p>
<p>But! &#8220;We launched it because we could.&#8221;</p>
<p>As search gets better, ads have to keep pace. Great momentum with AdWords.</p>
<p>New ad formats appear on more than 10 percent of query. Some formats show clickthrough rates as much as 10 percent on some, up 30 percent in others.</p>
<p>Big numbers, &#8220;which all begin with the letter B.&#8221;</p>
<p>$2.5 billion: Non-text display ad revenue run rate. That includes DoubleClick, YouTube.</p>
<p>2 billion: YouTube monetized views per week</p>
<p>$1 billion: Mobile annualized run rate</p>
<p>Mobile search queries up 5 times in the last few years.</p>
<p>Back to Pichette, to tamp down numbers.</p>
<p>In some cases, there is overlap with numbers. For instance, with AdMob, numbers counted in both display and mobile.</p>
<p>Time for Q&amp;A, Schmidt is now on the line.</p>
<p>Schmidt says query growth is pushing click growth, and so are new ad formats. Ads are more compelling, etc.</p>
<p>Pichette notes that AdX numbers are included in the $2.5B display total.</p>
<p>Q: Please talk about YouTube. Of the two billion monetized views, what percent is that of total views? And are you profitable yet?</p>
<p>Pichette: Re: Profitability, &#8220;We have not made any comments on it.&#8221; [Except of course when they do, over and over.]</p>
<p>Rosenberg: Note that we&#8217;ve said we do two billion views per day&#8211;that will give you context.</p>
<p>Sorry, missed a Q.</p>
<p>Schmidt says growth of Android is &#8220;well past what I had ever hoped for.&#8221;</p>
<p>90,000 apps on Android &#8220;and growing very fast.&#8221;</p>
<p>Question about &#8220;proprietary benefits&#8221; of Android.</p>
<p>Schmidt: Android is the &#8220;largest single platform play&#8221; in mobile today.</p>
<p>We&#8217;re growing it by giving software away. How does that help us? Well, for starters, people who use Android search two times more than anyone else. Obvious benefit for us there, and search is more lucrative for us there as well, and that makes Android &#8220;hugely profitable.&#8221;</p>
<p>And we can add other value-added services to Android, but that&#8217;s not the focus right now.</p>
<p>Questions on cost: Cost per employee has declined. Can you continue that? And on mobile, will you stay with the &#8220;indirect monetization&#8221; Android strategy?</p>
<p>Pichette: Wouldn&#8217;t read anything into the cost-per-employee numbers. But we&#8217;re continuing to be frugal and generous.</p>
<p>Ad boss Nikesh Arora: We&#8217;re excited about the revenue model we have. We have no reason to change the model we have with Android.</p>
<p>Schmidt: And display will become a very big component of mobile.</p>
<p>Q: On display, can you break out YouTube and AdX numbers? And what do you think of competitive Android marketplaces?</p>
<p>Pichette: No breakout of numbers. [Duh.]</p>
<p>Schmidt: Goal of the app store is to make money for developers. Not a revenue goal for Google. More stores are a &#8220;win for everybody.&#8221;</p>
<p>Question about CPC on mobile devices. Rosenberg: They&#8217;re lower than desktop, because there aren&#8217;t many practical ways to consumate transaction. But on the iPad, activity looks a little bit more like it does on a PC, because there&#8217;s more room to enter credit card numbers, etc.</p>
<p>Q: Please discuss cannibalization between smartphone and PC&#8211;are iPad and tablet searches incremental or cannibalization? And can you give us color on international 26 percent growth?</p>
<p>Rosenberg: We don&#8217;t see cannibalization. We see mobile as complimentary to desktop. Different use patterns&#8211;mobile search is on weekends, during lunchtime, etc.</p>
<p>Arora: Generally, trend positive across the board. U.K. a bit weaker, but some of that is FX. Southern Europe way better than Northern. Asian markets robust.</p>
<p>Q: Competitors make $300 profit per handset sold over the lifetime of a device.You&#8217;re approaching this with a different model, but do you think that&#8217;s an upper limit on that number?</p>
<p>Schmidt: Our model is that handset makers and manufacturers make a lot of money from the phone, and we make money from advertising. So can&#8217;t compare the two, and premature for us to guess what we can do.  &#8220;It should be highly lucrative&#8221; and a &#8220;very very strong revenue stream compared to a PC.&#8221;</p>
<p>Q: On social search. How do you &#8220;capture the signal&#8221; without access to the data feeds, as you have with Twitter.</p>
<p>Schmidt: &#8220;There are some ways we can do that&#8221; now, and we&#8217;re working on new ways.</p>
<p>Sorry, stepped out. Back now.</p>
<p>Q: TAC rate seems to be lowest since IPO. Sustainable? Growth has been driven by volume, not price. Sustainable, and/or will pricing increase going forward?</p>
<p>Pichette: MySpace deal is now over. That saved us a bunch of money. And mix of our partners will effect our TAC. That&#8217;s about it.</p>
<p>Rosenberg: Can&#8217;t answer volume/price question without &#8220;being forward-looking.&#8221; [Heh]</p>
<p>Q: Microsoft/Facebook deal was exclusive. But do you think you&#8217;ll see exclusive data deals? And what about Groupon, etc.? Can you compete there?</p>
<p>A: Value of exclusive data is &#8220;swamped&#8221; by &#8220;vastness&#8221; of the Web. So no concern there.</p>
<p>Schmidt: Always a concern that large chunks of data are not accessible to search engines&#8230;.<em>long pause</em>&#8230; up to the content owner to decide how much to expose. We believe the world is better off if more information is searchable. &#8220;We fundamentally believe that.&#8221;</p>
<p>Rosenberg: Daily deals are very exciting. &#8220;A lot of small companies doing a fabulous job there.&#8221; We participate a little bit via sitelinks. But no question &#8220;that&#8217;s a very exciting and hot space.&#8221;</p>
<p>Q: When will Google Instant be on the BlackBerry or iPhone? What&#8217;s Android activation rate? And why not let advertisers bid directly on mobile inventory?</p>
<p>Rosenberg: Instant availability on other platforms &#8220;relatively soon&#8221;&#8211;probably this fall.</p>
<p>Not updating Android activation numbers.</p>
<p>Q: Given that non-core search is more material, do you think you&#8217;ll keep allocating resources with your 70-10-10 model? And when do you anticipate mobile overtaking desktop?</p>
<p>Schmidt: On mobile vs. display: Even if we knew I don&#8217;t think we&#8217;d talk about it.</p>
<p>On core vs. emergent: We talk about this all the time. Depends. Android is very small, and growing fast, so they get all the resources they need. We end up still at 70-10-10, but that&#8217;s not really a formula for us.</p>
<p>Pichette: What really matters the most to us is as Eric says, &#8220;When you see a hockey stick, pour gasoline on that fire.&#8221;</p>
<p>Q: Big-picture data question: What does Google think about leveraging user data to better target ads (see Facebook, Yahoo, etc.)&#8211;particularly with search data and display?</p>
<p>Schmidt: &#8220;We have a pretty strong opinion that we&#8217;re not going to do very much of it.&#8221; We&#8217;re intensely serious about privacy.</p>
<p>So &#8220;we&#8217;re not going to do the kinds of things that we could do with it&#8230; without your explicit permission. And in many cases we probably won&#8217;t do it forever.&#8221;</p>
<p>A question on display, which I&#8217;ve missed but will have to return to.</p>
<p>Pichette wraps things up. Today&#8217;s data points &#8220;are not about giving you information&#8221; for coming quarters, but to give you confidence that we&#8217;re building long-term businesses.</p>
<p>Call ends.</p>
<p>Mark Mahaney&#8217;s cheat sheet will help you decipher the numbers:<br />
<a rel="lightbox" href="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/files/2010/10/Google-q3-cheat-sheet.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-24499" title="Google q3 cheat sheet" src="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/files/2010/10/Google-q3-cheat-sheet.png" alt="" width="350" height="117" /></a></p>
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		<title>Ad Sales, Pay Walls, and Absolutely Nothing About iPads at the New York Times Earnings Call</title>
		<link>http://allthingsd.com/20100210/live-ad-sales-pay-walls-and-ipads-at-the-new-york-times-earnings-call/</link>
		<comments>http://allthingsd.com/20100210/live-ad-sales-pay-walls-and-ipads-at-the-new-york-times-earnings-call/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Feb 2010 16:01:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Peter Kafka</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/?p=16146</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The New York Times said things got better--or, if you like, no worse--during the last quarter of 2009. But investors are disappointed that the publisher isn't more optimistic about 2010, and they're pushing shares down this morning. Let's see if the paper's executives can turn that around during their earnings call.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The <a href="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/20100210/as-predicted-a-not-terrible-quarter-for-the-new-york-times-print-ads-shrink-less-and-the-web-actually-grows/">New York Times said things got better</a>&#8211;or, if you like, no worse&#8211;during the last quarter of 2009. But investors are disappointed that the publisher isn&#8217;t more optimistic about 2010, and they&#8217;re pushing shares down this morning.</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s see if the paper&#8217;s executives can turn that around during their earnings call. We&#8217;ll also be looking for any updates the Times can provide on its pay wall plans, and, of course, its role in the launch of the Apple iPad.</p>
<p>UPDATE: As I noted below, though the New York Times (NYT) was a featured partner at the launch of Apple&#8217;s (AAPL) iPad, even sending a small team to Cupertino to create an app a few weeks before the event, there was zero discussion about iPads today.</p>
<p>CEO Janet Robinson made a generalized comment about the growth of the Times&#8217;s mobile distribution, but that was it. And not a single analyst showed any interest in this stuff&#8211;a good reminder that neither the Times nor Wall Street expects the iPad to be material to the company&#8217;s business for quite some time.</p>
<h4 class="subhed">Liveblog</h4>
<p>On the call: CEO Janet Robinson, CFO Jim Follo, Times Media Group boss Scott Heekin-Canedy, and Digital boss Martin Nisenholtz</p>
<p>In a preamble, CEO Robinson highlights cost-cutting, balance sheet repair, and asset sales (radio station, but not the Boston Globe; the company is still looking at selling its stake in the Boston Red Sox&#8211;the process is &#8220;complicated&#8221; and is &#8220;taking longer than anticipated&#8221;).</p>
<p>Robinson recaps the pay wall plan, metered approach, etc. Nothing new here so far.</p>
<p>The paper is waiting until 2011 to deploy the pay wall, she explains, because it wants to make &#8220;subscribing as smooth and easy as possible&#8230;.It will take some time to build, deploy and test the best systems.&#8221;</p>
<p>Robinson offers a few revenue details, primarily a recap of the earnings release.</p>
<p>Ads by category: National ads down 12 percent, retail down 23 percent, classifieds down 27 percent.</p>
<p>News media online grew four percent, primarily from display advertising (the rest of online growth comes from About.com).</p>
<p>Print ad category decreases came from Hollywood, among others. Ad category increases: Print auto, health care, packaged goods.</p>
<p>Circulation revenue is up because of newsstand, price increases. The Times is benefiting from declines at other papers, because as local papers cut back, it is offering more info than ever. Robinson notes  expansion by the paper into local news in the Chicago and San Francisco markets, adding that there are plans on going local in &#8220;several&#8221; other key markets</p>
<p>Time to brag about new mobile products and applications. The paper counted 75 million page views from mobile and apps in December, and the iPhone app has been downloaded three million times since launch.</p>
<p>Back to digital: Display ads are up, classifieds down; they improved &#8220;significantly&#8221; as Q4 progressed.</p>
<p>About.com is still the Times&#8217;s digital cash machine: Revenue is up 22 percent, and operating profit grew from $10 million to $18 million.</p>
<p>Overall, Internet businesses are up 10 percent and accounted for 15 percent of revenue for the quarter. Online advertising revenue accounted for 23 percent of ad revenue of the quarter.</p>
<p>&#8220;Limited&#8221; visibility for 2010, which is what&#8217;s upsetting The Street, supposedly. But the paper is still &#8220;realigning&#8221; its cost base.</p>
<p>CFO Jim Follo&#8217;s comments may not interest all readers except for this part: The Times is continuing to reduce headcount, he notes, which dropped by 18 percent in 2009. The company is also looking at the benefit structure for both employees and retirees. It froze that awesome supplemental retirement plan that pays certain retirees a very lucrative pension.</p>
<p>We&#8217;ve been benefiting from a drop in newsprint prices last couple years, Follo notes, though suppliers are trying to raise prices again, but there&#8217;s a supply glut, so we think they&#8217;ll have a tough time doing that.</p>
<p>No big capital spending projects are planned. [Presumably, the pay wall is not that expensive to build.]</p>
<p>[Aside: Interesting that NYT.com GM Denise Warren, who's normally on these calls, isn't on today's.]</p>
<h4 class="subhed">Questions and Answers</h4>
<p><strong>Question:</strong> More color on advertising, please. </p>
<p><strong>Scott Heekin-Canedy:</strong> We have some optimism, but advertisers are &#8220;guarded,&#8221; and ads are still bought&#8211;or retracted&#8211;at the last minute, as they were last year.</p>
<p>Tech, media, health care, and auto ad categories all look promising. The mix is &#8220;definitely different&#8221; from last year &#8220;when it seemed like every single category was down.&#8221; Now, many categories are showing &#8220;flat to significant growth.&#8221;</p>
<p><strong>Question:</strong> Are you still optimistic that you can reach a deal on the Red Sox?</p>
<p><strong>Robinson:</strong> &#8220;Yes we are.&#8221; Lots of due diligence, lots of different properties (stake in team, stadium, network, etc.).</p>
<p><strong>Q:</strong>  What are incremental costs of setting up a pay wall?</p>
<p><strong>Robinson:</strong> &#8220;We feel this is an elegant solution,&#8221; but we want to wait the year and make sure we&#8217;re well prepared, etc. Again, integrating home delivery and digital is crucial. </p>
<p><strong>Nisenholtz:</strong> Regarding cost, there will be a &#8220;modest operating cost&#8221; to deploy the tech. We&#8217;re hiring a &#8220;handful&#8221; of people to do that and deploying &#8220;modest&#8221; capital, but it&#8217;s not material.</p>
<p>[Apology: I missed a question on ad categories, though it seems to reprise the earlier question.]</p>
<p><strong>Q:</strong> Can you give us a sense of additional cost-savings you can extract this year? </p>
<p><strong>Follo:</strong> Nope.</p>
<p><strong>Q:</strong> Will your headcount go down again in 2010? </p>
<p><strong>Follo:</strong> Yes.</p>
<p>[Missed another question here.]</p>
<p>Next a question about the tax rate, which I can&#8217;t imagine anyone reading this cares about.</p>
<p><strong>Q:</strong> Can you tell us more about January ad trends, i.e., how much is national vs. local? </p>
<p><strong>Robinson:</strong> We won&#8217;t break that out (anymore). </p>
<p><strong>Q:</strong> Was it materially better than Q4? </p>
<p><strong>Robinson:</strong> She repeats her earlier comments from the release. &#8220;Very good performance&#8221; on the digital side of business. December was particularly good, but we&#8217;re not going to be more specific about January. </p>
<p><strong>Heekin-Canedy:</strong> That said, we don&#8217;t think January is much of an indicator about the rest of the year, anyway. Different beast, not much connection between December [when people were dumping leftover dollars].</p>
<p>[There's a <em>giant</em> disconnect between analysts and the chattering classes here. If the latter ran the call, this would be about nothing but iPad, iPad, iPad. But we're 48 minutes in, and zilch so far. Which is a good reminder: No matter what launches with the tablet this year, this stuff isn't going to have a big impact on Big Media for quite some time.]</p>
<p><strong>Q:</strong> Where is growth coming from at About.com? </p>
<p><strong>Robinson:</strong> Both consumer packaged goods and display ads. We&#8217;ve upgraded the sales channel to go after display and that&#8217;s helped a lot. </p>
<p><strong>Nisenholtz:</strong> Strong categories include CPC, travel, education and financial services. There&#8217;s also retail strength. </p>
<p><strong>Q:</strong> Are CPGs new to About.com? </p>
<p><strong>Nisenholtz:</strong> Yeah. Well, not exactly. It&#8217;s a big site, lots of reach. But we&#8217;ve updgraded the sales team and the increase there is part of the payoff. We reach a lot of moms. The Web site skews female.</p>
<p><strong>Q:</strong> You may end up paying $60 million to $80 million back into the pension plan. When could that come? Q4? </p>
<p><strong>Follo:</strong> Could be sooner than that. We&#8217;re in a good position regarding liquidity.</p>
<p>[The final question is about joint ventures that you don't care about.]</p>
<p>And that&#8217;s it for the call.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Google CEO Eric Schmidt: "I Have a Special Spot for Apple in My Heart"</title>
		<link>http://allthingsd.com/20100121/googles-q4-revenue-in-line-and-a-nice-earnings-bump/</link>
		<comments>http://allthingsd.com/20100121/googles-q4-revenue-in-line-and-a-nice-earnings-bump/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Jan 2010 21:46:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Peter Kafka</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/?p=15370</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Eric Schmidt's tender feelings for Apple won't stop Google from competing directly with Apple's iPhone: The company spent much of the time on its Q4 earnings call discussing its large mobile ambitions--without talking about specifics, of course. Meanwhile, the search giant posted a big jump in quarterly revenue. But not enough for twitchy investors, who are pushing shares down in after-hours trading.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/files/2009/05/schmidtdif.jpg" alt="schmidtdif" title="schmidtdif" width="300" height="204" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-17211" />A first peek at <a href="http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1288776/000119312510009730/dex991.htm">Google&#8217;s Q4 earnings report</a>: Revenue in line and a nice earnings bump. The search giant reported revenue of $4.95 billion and earnings of $6.79 per share. <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=GOOG">The Street</a> was looking for revenue of $4.9 billion and $6.50 in earnings per share, per Yahoo (YHOO). (I&#8217;ve also seen lower &#8220;consensus&#8221; numbers for EPS in the $6.45-$6.48 range).</p>
<p>Google (GOOG) stock has lurched five percent lower in the first few minutes of after-hours trading, as investors digest the news. If you want to anthropomorphize the market, you might speculate that it&#8217;s bummed that CEO Eric Schmidt and company didn&#8217;t show a higher revenue lift. But if you&#8217;re keeping track, revenue is up 17 percent compared with last year, and up 12 percent from the previous quarter.</p>
<p>Here is Citigroup (C) analyst Mark Mahaney&#8217;s &#8220;cheatsheet&#8221; for those playing at home (click to enlarge):</p>
<p><a rel="lightbox" href="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/files/2010/01/google-cheat-sheet.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-15336" title="google cheat sheet" src="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/files/2010/01/google-cheat-sheet.png" alt="google cheat sheet" width="350" height="124" /></a></p>
<p>And you can see the company&#8217;s<a href="http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1288776/000119312510009730/dex992.htm"> profit and loss and balance sheet here</a>.</p>
<p>Google will be using YouTube to <a href="http://www.youtube.com/GoogleIR">livestream its earnings call</a>, but I&#8217;ll be providing some annotation here starting at 4:30 pm Eastern. You can also check out the company&#8217;s accompanying <a href="http://docs.google.com/present/view?id=djnx46b_129hb3437c6">slide presentation here</a>, and here&#8217;s a chart it&#8217;s particularly proud of (click to enlarge):</p>
<p><a rel="lightbox" href="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/files/2010/01/google-revenue-chart.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-15389" title="google revenue chart" src="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/files/2010/01/google-revenue-chart.png" alt="google revenue chart" width="350" height="258" /></a></p>
<p>I&#8217;m trying out a promising new liveblog tool, but please bear with me if there are bumps along the way.</p>
<p>On the call: CEO Eric Schmidt, CFO Patrick Pichette, product guy Jonathan Rosenberg, sales boss Nikesh Arora. No Larry or Sergey.</p>
<p>Schmidt declares that he&#8217;s very pleased with Q4: &#8220;An extraordinary end to a roller coaster year.&#8221;</p>
<p>Schmidt: Clearly, we were right to start ramping up investments and will continue to do so. We&#8217;re investing in people and investing in tech based on our &#8220;70/20/10&#8243; rule: 70 percent in core products, 20 percent in new business like mobile/Android, and 10 percent in &#8220;long view&#8221; initiatives like commerce and social.</p>
<p>And of course, more mergers and acquisitions. We&#8217;re continuing on a pace of roughly one M&#038;A per month, some small, some big.</p>
<p>Pichette runs through the numbers in the release above. He reiterates Schmidt&#8217;s line about continuing investments.</p>
<p>Jonathan Rosenberg has a cold, but gets his message across: &#8220;We made some very hard decisions&#8221; to shut down some products to focus on winners. It&#8217;s our &#8220;more wood behind fewer arrows approach.&#8221; We&#8217;re focusing on DoubleClick integration, Android expansion and the Chrome OS. &#8220;YouTube, is in fact, monetizing well,&#8221; and we hope our partners make money, too.</p>
<p>Obviously, going forward, we&#8217;re going to plow resources into search. But other stuff too. Social, for instance. Not just social networking, but all of our products should be &#8220;social.&#8221; This can apply to search, local search, etc. We&#8217;re also focusing on commerce, whether people are making their purchases online or offline.</p>
<p>More Rosenberg: Mobile is important, and so is moving enterprise to the cloud.</p>
<p>Arora: We improved throughout the year, and Q4 was strong. Large companies like Staples (SPLS) and Volvo are directing an increasing portion of spending online [as they're supposed to do].</p>
<p>Arora: Search ads are always a value in December! Costs go up but they get more effective because people buy more.</p>
<p>Arora: Brand marketers are increasing their spending too. YouTube has had many successful brand campaigns. Have you seen Fox&#8217;s &#8220;Avatar&#8221; ads? They&#8217;re great. Other shoutouts for Sony (SNE) and American Express (AXP).</p>
<p>Arora: Most of the top networks have signed onto AdX ad exchange since we launched it in the fall.</p>
<p>Time for Q&#038;A.</p>
<p><strong>Google&#8217;s U.S. revenue had a big jump, but international revenue did not accelerate as quickly. What gives?</strong></p>
<p>Arora: In the U.S., we saw large advertisers shifting offline to online. Other markets have different issues; hence, the different growth rates.</p>
<p><strong>Are we back to normal in regard to seasonal patterns? Also, can you talk about &#8220;materiality&#8221; of mobile?</strong></p>
<p>Pichette: We won&#8217;t talk about mobile revenue in any concrete way.</p>
<p>Arora: There is some different performance by vertical. Finance, obviously, isn&#8217;t as strong as it used to be.</p>
<p><strong>Another question about mobile: Is Google trying to push revenue? Profitability? Also, please talk about China.</strong></p>
<p>Rosenberg: Advertisers are starting to figure out what works on mobile. For instance, adding a phone number or an offer for mobile helps a lot.</p>
<p>Pichette: Regarding mobile, we want to drive innovation that in turn drives people to the Web, which is better for us. That&#8217;s the core engine of mobile.</p>
<p>Schmidt: &#8220;China stuff has been well-covered in the press,&#8221; the CEO notes before recounting the China story. &#8220;We&#8217;re in conversations with the Chinese government,&#8221; and our business has remained unchanged. &#8220;But in a reasonably short time, we&#8217;ll be making some changes there.&#8221; That said, we&#8217;d still like to be in China.</p>
<p>Missed a question. Apologies.</p>
<p><strong>Please talk about outperformance of network business vs. owned and operated. Also, what accounts for higher marketing costs?</strong></p>
<p>Pichette: Nothing to talk about re: network versus O&#038;O. Re expenses, we said we were going to ramp up investment and we put in more there because we can track the results and the return on investment.</p>
<p>Arora: Yep, some of that money was to support consumer launches.</p>
<p><strong>You said search increased five times on mobile. So what does that mean for revenue per search? Also, please talk more about increased spending on marketing.</strong></p>
<p>Pichette: We&#8217;re really pleased with the marketing experiments we&#8217;re running.</p>
<p>Rosenberg: Regarding mobile, the new formats, targeting tools and reporting we&#8217;re giving mobile advertisers is making a huge difference. But I won&#8217;t answer your question about revenue.</p>
<p>Missed another question here.</p>
<p><strong>YouTube monetization: Can you give us some metrics on how much inventory you&#8217;re selling?</strong></p>
<p>Arora: Nope. But it has &#8220;gone from being a nice-to-have&#8221; to essential.</p>
<p>Pichette: The Youtube homepage nearly sold out in Q4. Hope that&#8217;s useful.</p>
<p><strong>Can you break out ad spending by advertiser size?</strong></p>
<p>Arora: Large advertisers are moving online, which is good. Retail was strong in Q4. We&#8217;re working with smaller advertisers to &#8220;bring them into the fray.&#8221; But the discrepancy so far has been mainly seasonal.</p>
<p><strong>Can you rank your core businesses in terms of growth potential? Also, what&#8217;s up with you and Apple (AAPL)?</strong></p>
<p>Schmidt: We&#8217;ve been saying for a while that display is a big opportunity. One story you haven&#8217;t seen so far is how successful we&#8217;ve been in display, but that will come out in 2010. [Note to PR staff: Start pitching!]</p>
<p>And obviously, mobile is small now but will grow quickly.</p>
<p>&#8220;With respect to Apple, it&#8217;s probably better to say&#8221;&#8230;that as a former board member &#8220;I have a special spot for Apple in my heart.&#8221; They&#8217;re a very well run company and &#8220;they have some very good stuff coming&#8221; strong competitor, etc.</p>
<p>Schmidt on Nexus One: What it is really about is a new way of buying a phone. Nexus One itself is the first in a series of examples where you can buy the phone online and pick your carrier.</p>
<p><strong>Is Bing having an impact on cost per click?</strong></p>
<p>Rosenberg: We think out CPCs are generally not affected by competitors. Prices are set by buyers.</p>
<p><strong>Can you talk about Nexus One&#8217;s impact on margin?</strong></p>
<p>Pichette. Not really. We want to innovate, etc. Nexus One will have its own margin and that&#8217;s how we&#8217;re focused on building the business.</p>
<p><strong>We&#8217;ve seen third-party data on mobile projecting that iPhone could account for 50 percent of mobile traffic. Does that make sense to you? Also, you have said that the Apple relationship is &#8220;stable.&#8221; So what are the odds that you&#8217;re going to continue to provide search on the iPhone?</strong></p>
<p>Schmidt: We won&#8217;t talk about the market share of Apple. And we won&#8217;t &#8220;speculate about any deals of any kind&#8211;true, not true, rumored, not rumored.&#8221;</p>
<p><strong>Given that new display products are so great, is there any notion that people are moving dollars from search to display?</strong></p>
<p>Schmidt: Advertisers &#8220;don&#8217;t shift, they add.&#8221; They might maximize search to maximize revenue and they might spend on display for long-term growth, branding, etc.</p>
<p>Pichette thanks Googlers listening for all their hard work. There&#8217;s an auxilary call at 6 pm Eastern with Pichette and Rosenberg, but I won&#8217;t be able to cover that one.</p>
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		<title>An Indie Label Sounds Off: Why We Don't Love Grooveshark</title>
		<link>http://allthingsd.com/20090618/an-indie-label-sounds-off-why-we-dont-love-grooveshark/</link>
		<comments>http://allthingsd.com/20090618/an-indie-label-sounds-off-why-we-dont-love-grooveshark/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Jun 2009 11:39:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Peter Kafka</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[When a big music label sues a scrappy Web music start-up, most people tend to sympathize reflexively with the little guy. But not everyone. Here's the case against Grooveshark--not from EMI, which has hauled them into court, but from an indie that by all rights ought to be working with Grooveshark: "The service is just ripping off the band."]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/files/2009/06/busker.jpg"><img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-8327" title="busker" src="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/files/2009/06/busker-250x187.jpg" alt="busker" width="250" height="187" /></a>When a big music label sues a scrappy Web music start-up, most people tend to sympathize reflexively with the little guy. But not everyone.</p>
<p>My story about <a href="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/20090617/another-music-startup-sued-emi-takes-grooveshark-to-court/">EMI&#8217;s lawsuit against Web music start-up Grooveshark </a>elicited this email from Ben Patterson, who runs indie Web music distributor <a href="http://www.dashgo.com/login">DashGo</a>, about his experience with the service.</p>
<p>I think Patterson&#8217;s remarks are useful because they spell out Grooveshark&#8217;s business plan, or at least part of it: Charge labels to promote their acts on the service&#8217;s search engine. And I think it&#8217;s also helpful to hear an obvious but little-voiced argument about the &#8220;free Web music = valuable promotion&#8221; thesis: It works best when the act or label is playing along. With Ben&#8217;s permission, I&#8217;m publishing his entire email.</p>
<blockquote class="memo"><p>I&#8217;ll caveat this by saying they are nice guys and big music fans and I&#8217;m always rooting for new music services that work for bands and music fans alike.</p>
<p>Back in 2007 DashGo signed a deal with Grooveshark that basically amounted to a digital download service delivered via P2P. Users who used Grooveshark&#8217;s P2P service to search for songs would be presented with a download / buy link and the revenue would be split between fan hosting the file, Grooveshark and the band.</p>
<p>A couple months later we got a nice packet&#8211;a t-shirt, letter and wax-sealed, yes, wax-sealed, envelope with a check for $0.59 in royalties. (<a href=".http://www.myspace.com/coconutrecords">Coconut Records &#8220;West Coast&#8221;</a> I think)</p>
<p>Then I didn&#8217;t hear much for 6 months. No checks, no real action. At the end of 2008, they reached out and told me about their new music search engine at listen.grooveshark.com&#8211;basically Seeqpod / Songza / all other stream song aggregators&#8230;not what we licensed for, but not egregious enough to get huffy.</p>
<p>Of course, that was before they offered to sell me advertising for my bands as the default search keyword. For $0.05 per search, I could make the default phrase &#8220;DashGo Band Name&#8221; instead of &#8220;Search here.&#8221; I had to ask&#8211;am I getting paid per play? No of course not. Because &#8220;[they] are not profitable and can&#8217;t afford to share that advertising revenue.&#8221; So I&#8217;m paying, not even for a play, but for a search term on a service where they have users and can sell ads ONLY because people can listen to music, and because it&#8217;s free, what incentive is there EVER to buy the song?</p>
<p>So we don&#8217;t deliver there anymore.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ll tell you why all these free streaming music services are broken&#8211;because they rely on music advertising to pay the rent but give away the advertisers product. If I got free McDonald&#8217;s and Budweiser by watching the Super Bowl, why would I buy the food? As an advertiser, why would I pay a CPC to advertise streaming music and promote listens when the per stream rate a existing subscription services is AT BEST $0.02 per play?</p>
<p>It sucks to get sued. I&#8217;m sorry Grooveshark, but really..what did you expect? You&#8217;re soliciting labels and bands to pay your bandwidth, rent and operating costs and giving away the product.</p>
<p>While I&#8217;ve got this soapbox out, let me preach one more gospel; offering free music accessible via a search engine is NOT promotional if the band hasn&#8217;t opted in.</p>
<p>If a user SEARCHES for the music and listens to it for free in an environment where someone ELSE has posted the music and the band doesn&#8217;t have the option to ask for an email address or even pitch a tour or merch or actual album; then the service is just ripping off the band by giving free content to someone who asked for it&#8211;not promoting it to a new fan or adding a filter that helps expose and distinguish music.</p></blockquote>
<p>[<em>Image credit: <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/mrs_logic/2981022170/">Mrs. Logic</a></em>] </p>
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