But the most intriguing part of Berger’s note is his report that Asian sources indicate a compound called “Bismaleimide Triazine Resin,” which is used in the packaging of many chips, could be constrained given that most of the supply comes from Japan’s Mitsubishi Gas Chemical. A shortage of BT resin would hurt Xilinx, which is “50 percent exposed,” he writes, Altera, which has 40 percent exposure, and Qualcomm which has 30 percent exposure.

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“We believe various news articles and competitor notes calling for a build delay were just false alarms,” he writes. The company, of course, has now set an April 3 launch for Wi-Fi versions of the iPad, with 3G versions to ship toward the end of April. Berger, who tracks the chip industry, thinks many iPhone component suppliers will also sell into the iPad, including Infineon (IFX), Skyworks (SKWS), Triquint (TQNT), Broadcom (BRCM) and Texas Instruments (TXN). Production in the 4-5 million unit range would “drive some material revenues” for these companies, he says, “particularly BRCM.”

Meanwhiile, Berger has revised his estimates on iPod, iPhone, notebook and desktop builds.

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Here’s a rundown on Berger’s outlook for production in the next few quarters from key chip companies; what he’s measuring here are wafer starts, or a little more roughly, units:

• Broadcom (BRCM): He sees production down 13 percent in Q4 from Q3, worse than his previous estimate of down eight percent; for Q1 he sees a further 17 percent cut.
• Marvell (MRVL): For Q4, down 18 percent, versus previous estimate of down 13 percent. For Q1, down another 10 percent.
• Texas Instruments (TXN): For Q4, production down 18 percent, no change; with Q1 down another 20 percent.

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Perhaps, as Friedman Billings Ramsey analyst Craig Berger claims, Apple’s fiscal first-quarter iPhone production will be more than 40 percent lower than production in its third. “We believe Apple is a good proxy for broader consumer demand given that it has the hottest, sleekest, most desirable products available today,” Berger wrote in a note to clients Monday. “That the firm’s iPhone production plans are being revised lower suggests that the global macroecomomic weakness is impacting even high-end consumers, those that are more likely to buy Apple’s expensive gadgets, and that no market segment will be spared in this global downturn.”

Perhaps the weakening economy will prevent Apple from producing another big quarter.

Or, perhaps, Craig Berger is full of it. Certainly, his track record on Apple production forecasts suggests that might be the case. As Andy Zaky ably points out over at Bullish Cross that Berger isn’t always on-point in these situations (click on chart below).

Earlier this year, for example, Berger claimed Apple had cut its second-quarter iPhone build plans by 60 percent. He also said the company had cut its build forecast for MacBooks by 50 percent. But when Apple reported Q2 earnings, iPhone sales were off by just 26 percent. And MacBook sales hadn’t fallen at all. In fact, they’d risen 6.8 percent.

So what are we to make of Berger’s prediction of a 40 percent production rate cut for the iPhone? Well, if anything it should be taken with a grain of salt, if not an entire salt flat. … As Zaky acerbically notes, “Craig Berger’s rantings on production rates have an almost zero correlation when it comes to actual sales.”