Bailey is looking for FY Q2 revenues of $8 billion, at the high end of the company’s guidance range of $7.6 billion to $8 billion, which would be down 21 percent sequentially, but up six percent year over year. He thinks gross margin will be about a point better than the company’s target of 32.5 percent, due to favorable component costs and product mix. As a result, Bailey upped his EPS estimate for the quarter to $1.07 from $1, which puts him a penny below the Street consensus of $1.08. Apple’s guidance had been for 90 cents to $1.

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“Sun’s heavy concentration of financial services, telecom and manufacturing customers and overweight dependence on a secularly declining segment (UNIX servers) put Sun at a disadvantage during this downturn versus more diversified competitors,” he writes in a research note. He says most of this is in the stock–down 79 percent in 2008–but says that a 76 percent uptick in the stock since the beginning of December and a 30 percent move in just the past three days “creates a compelling entry point,” by which he means a chance to short the stock.

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A disheartening prediction. And to make matters worse, Bailey speculates that Apple (AAPL) won’t unveil any new product categories at MacWorld come January, and because of that won’t see the sort of near-term pop it typically experiences after the introduction of a compelling new product. Said Bailey, “[The] nearer-term outlook is less positive, as it now looks unlikely that Apple will launch a new product category at MacWorld in early January, taking away a potential catalyst for the shares and causing Apple to try to generate demand in a tough environment without the benefit of a new offering in the first part of 2009.”

Apple shares closed at $94.75, down 3.58 percent for the day on the news.

A disheartening prediction. And to make matters worse, Bailey speculates that Apple (AAPL) won’t unveil any new product categories at MacWorld come January, and because of that won’t see the sort of near-term pop it typically experiences after the introduction of a compelling new product. Said Bailey, “[The] nearer-term outlook is less positive, as it now looks unlikely that Apple will launch a new product category at MacWorld in early January, taking away a potential catalyst for the shares and causing Apple to try to generate demand in a tough environment without the benefit of a new offering in the first part of 2009.”

Apple shares closed at $94.75, down 3.58 percent for the day on the news.