Shares of HP rose by more than 13 percent to $24.09 as of 10:15 am ET. The catalyst was yesterday’s quarterly earnings report that contained better-than-expected profits amid sales that fell short of consensus forecasts by more than half a billion dollars. Analysts this morning are questioning whether or not the company can maintain the veneer of progress toward a turnaround in the quarters ahead.

“Shrinking your way to profitability buys time but doesn’t equal a turnaround,” was the headline on a research note from Chris Whitmore of Deutsche Bank Securities this morning. With revenue down by 10 percent year on year, and sales in major business segments declining between 1 percent (printing) and 20 percent (personal computers), HP’s success this quarter and last appears to have been more about minding its cash flow and costs carefully, and less about selling more of the goods and services that make it money.

“HP is sacrificing market share, delaying research and development investment and the financial benefit of past restructuring actions to support near-term profitability which in our view is not sustainable,” Whitmore wrote.

Whitman explained yesterday, both in a conference call with analysts and in an interview with AllThingsD, that HP walked away from deals to sell PCs and servers that didn’t contain enough profit. It had the result of yielding some of its market share ground — HP leads the world in both PC and server sales — to Dell.

“Unsustainable,” appeared to be the word of the day among analysts covering HP. It also appeared in a note from Goldman Sachs analyst Bill Shope, who reiterated his “sell” rating on HP shares. HP’s exposure to “distressed end markets” will eventually overwhelm whatever actions it may take in the short- to medium term. Brian White of Topeka Capital Markets also maintained a “sell,” advising shareholders that yesterday’s 13 percent after-hours surge on HP’s share price represented an opportunity to do just that.

Hoped-for growth from sales of new products like Project Moonshot and new networking products are good, but even that success may not be enough replace the revenue that’s being lost, worries Evercore analyst Rob Cihra. “Low-power Moonshot servers, higher-end printing and software-defined networking all help but much more seems needed to move such a massive needle,” he wrote in a note to clients today. “Hopes for FY13 stability otherwise just appear to flow from deep restructuring cuts.”

Brian Marshall of ISI presented a similar view in a note to clients: “As global economic growth softens and PCs and printers face secular decline, it will be challenging for large technology vendors such as HP to find significant sources of new growth that can move the needle on approximately $110 billion of annual revenue.”

When surveying analysts on the subject of HP, it doesn’t take long to return to the notion of a breakup. HP is worth more in pieces, the argument goes, than as a unified company. That’s what will happen if HP isn’t able to turn the corner soon enough, argues Toni Sacconaghi of Sanford Bernstein, in a note today. While Sacconaghi has an “outperform” rating on HP shares, based on its prospects for improvement over the next six to nine months — an opinion he explained in detail on CNBC yesterday — he remains convinced that, after that, HP will either fix what’s broken or break itself up.

But in a short phone interview with AllThingsD, CEO Meg Whitman and CFO Cathie Lesjak reiterated what they said on a conference call with analysts: Progress has been made, but there’s still a lot of work to be done.

AllThingsD: Meg, let’s talk about the state of the competitive environment. We heard some pretty tough results from Dell last week, and you said on the call that HP was choosing to pass on some deals in order to protect profit margins. Tell me a little more about that.

Whitman: For the long term, profitability remains a focus for us because we can’t afford to let our profitability crater the way Dell did. We have to have the ability to invest in the next generation of PCs and servers and software. It was a tough quarter. We walked away from several deals and lost some share. But it felt like we did the right thing in going after the deals that were the right deals for us. There were also some execution issues. We have to make sure we have the right product for the right customers at the right price point. And particularly at the low end, I think we could do a better job there. But overall I’m reasonably pleased that we made the right decisions in the PC business.

Dell was also making a lot of noise about industry standard servers and how it took some share away from HP. Was it a similar dynamic in servers as it was in PCs?

Whitman: Yeah. We saw what happened to Dell’s earnings. They were down 75 percent. If they were a publicly held company that was trading freely in absence of a buyout number, the stock would be down by 50 percent. It would be ridiculous. We are a publicly held company and we have to invest in the long haul. So we had to choose to walk away from some deals in hyperscale and industry standard servers and PCs that didn’t make sense for the company. I feel like we did the right thing, but there’s always something you can learn from these things.

How do you feel about competing against a privately held Dell versus a publicly held Dell? We saw some indication of how it might behave in the marketplace this quarter. Do you think you’re going to have more of this aggressive pricing behavior and so on?

Whitman: I don’t know exactly how their behavior is going to change. But remember, they’re loading a lot of debt onto the company. And remember how LBOs work. The key is to pay off the debt quickly so you can take the company public again and make a lot of money. We’ll see if they remain as aggressive as they have been. But frankly, this is just a competitive business. We have a lot of competition. We have shown that we can win over time whether it’s against Acer or other manufacturers that we beat out. So if it’s Dell or anyone else, we have to have continuous improvement. We have to invest in the right products. We have to streamline our go-to-market strategy, we have to constantly refine our supply chain and we have to be more agile. And that is just part of being in the business.

Lesjak: And we’ve shown that by being No. 1 in the market for industry standard servers for many, many years now, and we’ve been competing against Dell that entire time.

Cathie, there was a lot of talk on the call about reducing HP’s debt. Give me a look ahead as to what changes when that debt comes down to approaching zero, then what happens?

Lesjak: It frees us up to step back and look at what we want to do with the cash we’re generating, and we want to make sure we’re making the right kind of investments. Those investments may be in buying back shares, or capital expenditures, or research and development to get us on track for the future, or to make small M&A deals. And we want to evaluate these all on a returns basis, both in the near term and in the long term. Because you really need to do both. Some decisions will be based on the near term and with some we’ll be willing to wait a long time for the returns because they’ll be worth it. This is actually one of those moments when we’re going through a lot of product transitions, where the new style of IT products are coming in and the older style products are going away. And what we really want to be able to do, instead of having to manage big transitions, we want to get through them more quickly and that means that you have to invest for the short term and long term.

Whitman: I’ve been saying this a lot lately: You have to plant acorns before you have oak trees. And I think with a lot of the CEO transitions, we didn’t plant enough acorns. And now we’re paying that price.

So part of the impression I got from this quarter and last is that you’re able to beat the Street expectations in part because you’re able to manage your cash flow very tactically. You did well with cash flow for the first half of the year and you said on the call that you don’t expect it to remain as strong in the second half. With the macro environment remaining so weak, I come away thinking that your success is really less about products and lines of business and right now more about managing and taking out costs. Is that fair?

Lesjak: I’d sum it all up to operational excellence. You have to do this all the time. I mean, we’re in a competitive industry. Margins are tight and you have to be maniacally focused on managing your costs every minute, and making sure you’ve got the right product in the right place at the right time. I think this has to be part of the DNA of the company. There’s no moment when you exhale and then you get to spend more. This is about being focused all the time and bringing that discipline to the company. Now in the second half we have some extraordinary cash payments to make around taxes and restructuring payments. As well as some cap-ex that we think will be good investments for the future.

Is there any indication that the macro environment is going to improve? We’re seeing the worst environment for PCs pretty much ever, and IT spending generally isn’t looking so good. Do you sense any improvement in either?

Whitman: From a macroeconomic perspective, which is what drives IT spending across small businesses, medium ones and big enterprises, I think the environment remains about the same. I could be wrong here. We don’t see any improvement coming in Europe and we don’t see an improvement in the U.S. So we’re not counting on those as tailwinds or headwinds, but really more of the same. PCs are a little different. PCs are a subset of personal systems, and as you know that business is growing generally with all the tablets and mobile devices. It’s possible the PC growth rate doesn’t decline as much. It may continue or it may flatten. The objective is that when it starts to flatten out, whose is the company with the best products and the company best-positioned to gain share. We want it to be us.

Lesjak: Taking advantage of the fact that tablets are a growing segment, you really look at HP’s position in tablets, and that will improve significantly in the second half of this year. We’ve got the Slate 7 Android consumer tablet and the Elitepad commercial tablet. Those ramp in the second half, so we’ll have some help on the top line. Not so much in the PC business but personal systems.

Project Moonshot launched during the quarter and there’s a sense that there’s a lot of hope riding on that product. When does it start shipping in earnest for revenue? Is that a 2014 story?

Lesjak: It really ramps in the second half of this year but it’s more of a 2014 story. The real material benefit is 2014 and 2015. IDC has done some projections that the Web and cloud services business will grow about 19 percent in 2016. So that works out to about 8-10 million servers between now and then. So that’s the market that Moonshot is going after.

Whitman: You also have to remember that the ramp is slower with these enterprise products than with the consumer products. Big enterprises need to bring them in and do a proof of concept and see what workloads they want to run on them. And then they have to prove it out. Enterprises move more slowly, but when they move, they move big. But the ramp is slower than the the consumer product.

What’s your biggest priority for the rest of the year now, Meg?

Whitman: We continue with our restructuring program. We said it was going to be a three-year program, and we’re about halfway through that timeline. So there’s more work to do there. And to Cathie’s point, it becomes part of the DNA. This is what we do in the normal course of business. We also have to manage the transition between the new products and the older products. We’d like to accelerate the growth of the new products if we can.

And you said on the call, despite all these market headwinds, you think you can grow next year.

Whitman: We do. We continue to believe that growth is possible next year. You’ve got to remember, we’re doing this amid some of the biggest transitions that have hit the IT industry in a generation. The macro environment is not going to help. The delayed runoff in enterprise services helps this year but hurts next year. But we think we can grow. It depends on a lot of different factors. To be clear, we expect EPS growth in 2014 regardless.

What’s your latest thinking on Autonomy? Is that part of the operation where it should be?

Whitman: I think Robert Youngjohns and his team have done a great job of stabilizing Autonomy. We’ve put in some systems that were lacking and we’ve changed our go-to-market. We’ve invested in R&D jobs there. We had 50 openings for research jobs there recently and I suspect that most of them have been filled by now. So I’m pleased with the progress. That team went through a lot, so I have to give them a shout-out. They had some difficult circumstances. And I’m pleased with what they’re doing. I think you’re going to see Autonomy grow in the next few quarters.

You still having fun, Meg?

It is fun. The senior team feels like they’re making a difference. The turnaround is on schedule. Obviously there are lessons learned every quarter, but we feel good about where we are.

A conference call with analysts concluded just a little while ago. On it, CEO Meg Whitman and CFO Cathie Lesjak reiterated that the turnaround roadmap they outlined at a meeting last year is still going about as expected, and that it is and will remain a multi-year plan. They’ve focused a lot of energy on paying down HP’s debt and improving its operations while making the investments to inject new life into its products lines.

There were also questions about HP’s decision to avoid fighting Dell in the PC business over pricing. Dell has recently said it was getting aggressive in order to take share, while HP has apparently decided to hold on to its profit margins at the expense of sales volume.

It will also be worth listening for hints of and adjustments in the strategy and timing of the turnaround plan put in place by CEO Meg Whitman and outlined at last year’s analyst’s meeting.

Also, HP earlier today released a video with Whitman summarizing the highlights of the quarter’s results.

Here’s a partial transcript of the conference call.

2:06 pm: Joining the conference call in progress. Meg Whitman is speaking. She just said that Europe will continue to be challenging and that China is starting to slow down.

Meg says revenue run-off in Enterprise Services will be slower than expected and will affect overall revenue in 2014.

In the Enterprise Group: Converged infrastructure is the future. Also, the two server groups are being merged into one. Project Moonshot lost during the quarter, but it will “take time to ramp.” But she’s confident that it will work to HP’s advantage without cannibalizing the existing server business.

In networking, HP is a strong number two after Cisco Systems, and its switching revenue is as much as the next five competitors combined, she says.

In software, Autonomy is stabilizing, and Vertica is looking good. The business is “well positioned.” Autonomy landed All Nippon Airways as a customer.

Now she’s speaking about areas where HP’s performance needs to improve. PCs is an area where it needs to fight harder. In mainstream servers, HP suffered from the conditions of the market and was tripped up “by our own execution.”

In PCs, “We stepped away from many deals to protect our bottom line.”

One key difference between the first half of this year and the first half of last year was that the PC industry roared back to life after hard drive supplies were disrupted by the flooding in Thailand.

2:16 pm: Whitman: “Overall our turnaround made progress in the second quarter.”

Now CFO Cathie Lesjak is speaking, and she’s running through the numbers again.

“IT spending softened and the macro-environment clearly did not improve.”

Revenue in most geographic regions was all down.

Software was down some as the industry is shifting to SAAS, Lesjak says.

2:29 pm: Revenue was down in financial services.

Lesjak is now talking about capital allocation and the balance sheet: We delivered more than $5 billion in the first half of the year, which is ahead of our previous guidance. But we do not expect this pace to continue.

Outlook: We remain confident in our ability to manage our cost structure. We are still on track to achieve the savings we’ve planned, but some business units are using these savings.

Moonshot launch was very successful, but we are not pleased with performance of x86 server sales. Printing continues to perform well.

Generally Lesjak expects lower restructuring expenses. “We now expect 2013 free cash flow to be about $7.5 billion.”

2:35 pm: Now time for Q&A. First question is from Katy Huberty of Morgan Stanley. Do you still think you can get to revenue neutral in services?

Whitman: We are rebuilding ourselves amid some of the most profound changes to hit the technology industry in a generation. The slower run-off in revenue will hurt us, but if 3Par and other business units perform as we expect, we expect to grow in 2014, but there will still be headwinds.

Whitman talked about some options for capital allocations. She says it’s mostly going to be “returns based,” meaning a bias toward share buybacks and dividends, and not M&A activity.

Question from J.P. Morgan. Again about services. What is your confidence in the planned services leakage events happening in 2014? Can you still unwind these planned attrition events? Basically he’s asking if some ineffective service contracts will get fixed.

Whitman: There is some predictability coming that was not there in 2012. “The control of this business is feeling better than it did before.”

Whitman: “We are fixing a lot of the problems that are keeping HP from being great. … This takes time. This is an enormous organization.”

Question from Sanford Bernstein: Could you clarify your plan for balancing profitability vs. growth? What is the near to medium term focus on share or profitability?

Whitman: We’re here to set this company up for the long term. In ISS (industry standard servers) we did walk away from some deals that weren’t profitable. In terms of Technology Services, one big headwind was the attach rate of support to sales of Business Critical Services (BCS, a.k.a. the Itanium server business).

Lesjak: We may well be more aggressive in pricing on an industry standard server if we’re getting attached to TS. We’ll take a lower margin based on the complete picture, and the long-term outlook on the account.

Question from Shannon Cross. More color on currency effects. Also pricing on the printer front from the Japanese companies.

Lesjak: Currency is about a point to revenue. It had been two points. “HP is exposed to a whole basket of currencies, and we have different hedging strategies.”

2:49 pm: Lesjak: We think our cost savings in the second half are creating a war chest for our Japanese competitors.

Whitman: We’re going to use that opportunity to fight back. Our competitors are more cost competitive because of what has happened to the yen.

Whitman: “The days of ever-escalating IT budgets in government are over.”

3:03 pm: That’s it. Thanks for tuning in.

At the outset, it seems a tall order. Name a significant line of HP’s business and it’s probably in the middle of one sort of fundamental slowdown or another. Whether it’s the historical decline in PC sales, a weak environment for server sales, a lousy market for printers or ongoing difficulties with its enterprise services business, HP has troubles in all four. Together, these troubled units accounted for about 92 percent of HP’s sales last quarter. Add to the mix a significant exposure to Europe, where the economy remains weak, and it becomes incredibly difficult to feel hopeful for a pleasant surprise in HP’s results today.

Whitman and CFO Cathie Lesjak have been clear in past public statements that there are no quick fixes for HP. And its rivals are taking advantage. Dell unleashed a bit of a price war on the PC front, cutting prices aggressively in order to take some market share ahead of its anticipated $24.4 billion go-private transaction.

While Dell is willing to sacrifice profitability, HP doesn’t seem to have responded, and so may have missed some sales. As Chris Whitmore of Deutsche Bank Securities wrote in a note to clients yesterday, “It appears HP is sacrificing share to protect near-term margins.”

Dell has also been bragging about its ability to take market share away from HP on the server front.

What HP has got going for it: Aggressive cost management. Remember that HP surprised the Street with better-than-expected cash flow in the first quarter of the year, giving the appearance that the promised turnaround had begun in earnest. But much of that surprise came from a one-time tax benefit that added a half-billion dollars to operating cash flow. That is unlikely this quarter, so Whitmore is worried that cash flow may come up short: “The combination of cash restructuring payments, headwinds from revenue declines in PCs impacting working capital and cash cycle and the absence of favorable factors in Q1 (tax deferrals, bonus payments, etc) may result in worse than expected cash flow,” he wrote.

Analysts expect HP to report 81 cents per share on sales of $28.12 billion. A miss on either the top or bottom line will probably freak out shareholders impatient to see some tangible sign that, despite having survived the worst year in its history, HP can yet be salvaged, and that Whitman is the one to get the job done. HP shares opened up slightly this morning at $21.21 a share.

I talked about all this a little this morning on CNBC. The video is below:

After last week’s huge earnings miss by Dell and news last month about the first earnings miss in eight years by IBM, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where HP’s circumstances look any rosier than they did three months ago. Whitman and CFO Lesjak will probably make an effort to remind shareholders and analysts that the turnaround they’ve been promising isn’t expect to become apparent until sometime in 2014.

Analysts are expecting HP to report per-share profits of 81 cents on sales of $28.1 billion and to forecast earnings of 84 cents or better on sales of $27.8 billion for the quarter ending in July.

Here’s the rundown of rough spots hitting other companies that will probably factor in to HP’s results:

• PCs: Sales of personal computers are showing the largest declines since records have been kept. HP remains the world’s largest vendor of PCs, which accounted for more than 28 percent of sales last quarter. Especially aggressive pricing by Dell hasn’t helped.
• Printers: The other category where HP leads the world, its printing business, accounted for $5.8 billion or more than 20 percent of revenue last quarter. Weak results from Lexmark and Xerox don’t augur well for HP generally. A recent product refresh by HP might help a little.
• Enterprise: Server sales are likely to be under pressure along with PCs and printers. Dell executives including CEO Michael Dell have been talking publicly about how Dell the company appeared to gain share in recent reports by IDC and Gartner. On Wednesday we’ll see if they’ve been speaking too soon. If they are, then expect weak results from the Enterprise Group, which accounted for 24 percent of HP’s sales last quarter.
• Enterprise Services: HP has been re-investing in the services group, the group largely made up of the former technology services firm EDS, and those investments aren’t expected to pay off anytime in the near future. As Chris Whitmore of Deutsche Bank Securities wrote in a note to clients today, “Increasing the size and depth of HP’s Services bench will likely take multiple quarters before translating into improving market share performance. As a result, we continue to expect a long, slow turnaround.” The unit accounted for more than 20 percent of sales last quarter.

Icahn and Southeastern proposed an alternate transaction to Dell’s proposed $24.4 billion go-private transaction with the private equity firm Silver Lake. The board committee responded by saying it wanted more information in order to evaluate. Aside from some chatting to a CNBC anchor about wanting to fire Michael Dell as the company’s CEO, and nominating a slate to replace the company’s current board of directors, the Icahn-Southeastern camp has been quiet.

Icahn and Southeastern proposed their transaction before Dell reported quarterly earnings on May 16. That earnings report showed a 79 percent year-on-year drop in quarterly profits.

The committee last week asked the Icahn camp for details about how it would finance its proposed deal, and for a draft of a definitive agreement. Icahn has in recent weeks disclosed that he owns about 4.5 percent of Dell’s outstanding shares, while Southeastern has long been Dell’s largest outside shareholder, accounting for more than 8 percent.

Earnings per share were at 21 cents, a whopping 14 cents below the consensus view, while revenue, at $14.07 billion, was above the forecast by about a half-billion dollars.

During a conference call with analysts that wrapped up just a little while ago, Dell management struck a tone of sticking to its strategic guns. With the PC market contracting fast, it has gotten selectively aggressive on pricing in order to try and take share away from rivals like Hewlett-Packard and Lenovo. At the same time, the results show growth in expenses like research and development spending that aren’t exactly helping gross margins.

In short, Dell is starting to act a lot more like the privately held company it expects to be before the summer is over, accountable only to its owners.

In their questions, analysts sought to tease out what details they could about the effect of the proposed go-private transaction on things like employee retention and relationships with key customers. CFO Brian Gladden and head of investor relations Rob Williams shot those questions down.

Here’s a summary of the substance of the conference call (all times are Pacific):

1:46 pm: On hold waiting for the conference call to begin with what sounds like some Vivaldi playing in the background.

And now things are getting under way.

Standard conference call boilerplate from head of investor relations Rob Williams.

Brian Gladden is speaking. “We continue to invest in strategic capabilities.” He’s talking about the acquisition of Entratius, which closed last week.

Gross margin was down 40 basis points sequentially.

“We continue to face a competitive pricing environment … and this has affected our profitability.”

Selling and general costs were up 4 percent.

R&D spending is up 33 percent.

Gladden: There were almost $90 million worth of expenses related to the go-private transaction that were excluded from the non-GAAP figures.

1:54 pm: Tom Sweet is talking about business segments. Here comes the news on server sales that Michael Dell said was going so well.

Servers, Networking and Peripherals saw sales grow by about 10 percent, but sales of storage fell about 10 percent.

Sweet: “Dell powers four out of the top five search engines and 75 percent of the top social media sites worldwide.”

Sweet is covering a few customer wins. And now he’s on to software. Revenue was $295 million and had an operating loss of $85 million. “We remain confident that the Quest acquisition (which was $2.4 billion) will be accretive by FY 2015.

Sweet is talking about End User Computing, a.k.a. the PC segment, and says the environment continues to be competitive. The plan is to try and cut $1 billion out of operating costs by 2015. But customers are “diverting spending to alternative mobile solutions.” Does he mean iPads? Yup.

2:01 pm: Sweet is talking about a big PC win with Marsh and McClennan that has 55,000 seats. “We won despite a key competitor that was a longtime incumbent.” Who? HP maybe?

Question and Answer session is getting underway. First is Katy Huberty from Morgan Stanley. “Can you step back and say if the margin decline is what you expected when you rolled out the more aggressive pricing strategy?”

Gladden: We’ve been talking about this for a few quarters, the need to adjust pricing. There are parts of the business where we are beginning to see some elasticity. Demand has been weaker than expected. These are accounts that we’re gaining that we feel good about their profitability. We feel for the long term we think it’s the right thing to do. If you look at the share dynamics, we did improve our share position in a market that is pretty tough.

A question from Tony Sacconaghi of Sanford Bernstein: Is there a minimum level of profitability that you are willing to sustain in an effort to hold or gain share? Also a question about cost-cutting.

Gladden: Without providing details of specific initiatives, we have continued to take cost out of the business. We are choosing to reinvest those dollars in sales and R&D. I think those things are going on concurrently. (Essentially what he’s saying is that Dell is acting like it’s a private company already.)

As Gladden is speaking I’m looking at the slide presentation. The worst geographically was Asia-Pacific, where sales fell 12 percent year on year. Ouch. Sales in the Americas were up slightly. The BRIC countries fell 17 percent, led by China which fell 24 percent. Super ouch.

Maynard Um: Are customers holding out given the go-private transaction?

Gladden: The customer base has been very supportive of the company. For the conversations I have been a part of they have resulted in many opportunities for the company.

FYI Dell share price update: In after-hours, Dell is trading at $13.37, which is 28 cents below the $13.65 that Michael Dell and Silver Lake have offered shareholders to take it private.

2:11 pm: Question from Steve Milunovich from UBS. He’s asking about changes in sales model on PCs that’s expected as Dell goes private.

Gladden: I wouldn’t say our strategy has changed at all. We’ve adjusted our pricing accordingly and expanded our offerings across the portfolio. This is not a new strategy or business model for us. It’s adjusting tactics given where the market is going.

Question from Credit Suisse: In terms of pursuit of new PC customers, have you put the investments in that you need to or is there more effort to come through?

Gladden: Basically says the strategy hasn’t changed.

Question from Deutsche Bank, asking about servers and the storage business. Servers are good but he says storage doesn’t seem to be getting good attach rates.

Gladden: With servers, we’re winning in the marketing. And when you look at density-optimized servers, we’re winning. We feel good about the server business. You don’t see us trading price for growth there.

About storage. We feel like that business is growing with the market. It’s shrinking with the market. That is not what we’d like to see, obviously. We’re working on it. We’ve added commercial resources over the the last 18 months. We feel positioned to out perform the market.

Question from Keith Bachmann at BMO: How might the M&A strategy differ if the go-private transaction happens? Also about employee retention during the transaction.

Rob Williams: No answer to the first question.

Gladden: Attrition has been about normal for us.

Another question: Does the PC market get softer or better over the next four to six quarters?

Gladden: There are multiple dynamics playing out. There’s a lot driving a refresh cycle. We see improvements in corporate and SMB segments. But we see consumer and government, not so good. Windows 8 has not been the catalyst to growth that we hoped it would be. (That’s a big admission.) You look at recent external data, and we would expect to see over the next few quarters declines in PC demand. We’re trying to run the business based on that.

2:22 pm: Can you update us on the peformance of Quest in the quarter?

Gladden: It’s progressing as expected. We expect it to be accretive in the first fiscal quarter of next year. (Or a year from now.)

Question from Bill Shope of Goldman Sachs, about the PC pricing reductions: Which accounts are the ones that get the discounts? Where do you draw the line on profit vs. market share?

Gladden: We know where long-term strategic accounts are. In many cases those are accounts we’ve had before and have walked away from. I think we’ve been selective. There are clearly some unit volume opportunities where we can sell a lot of units, but they don’t create any profit benefits.

2:29 pm: One last question, this one on support and deployment revenue, which was up.

Tom Sweet: We’re happy with the attach rate there. The team has seen some good things with support products. We’ve been able to keep the attach rate relatively high. Despite downward pressure, it will be a good business.

Gladden: We think that’s a good business on the enterprise side, too.

And that ends the call. Thanks for tuning in!

Earnings on a per-share basis were 21 cents on sales of $14.07 billion. That’s versus a pre-leak consensus of 35 cents on sales of $13.5 billion. Sales were obviously better than expected, but profits were substantially lower.

On a year-over-year basis, sales fell 2 percent. Profits on a non-GAAP basis fell 51 percent. The fall was led by end-user-computing, Dell’s mainstream PC business. Sales there fell 9 percent, and the unit’s operating margin fell 65 percent. That’s where the pain point is.

Enterprise sales grew by about 10 percent to $3.1 billion. Services revenue grew to about 2 percent. Software sales were $295 million but that unit ran at an operating loss.

Here’s Dell’s original announcement:

Dell Reports Fiscal Year 2014 First Quarter Financial Results

Revenue of $14.1 billion
Enterprise Solutions, Services and Software revenue up 12 percent
GAAP earnings of $0.07 per share; non-GAAP earnings of $0.21 per share

ROUND ROCK, Texas–(BUSINESS WIRE)–

Dell today announced fiscal 2014 first quarter results, with revenue of $14.1 billion, as the company grew revenue from Enterprise Solutions, Services and Software 12 percent year over year to $5.5 billion, or 8 percent growth, excluding the acquisition of Quest Software. Pricing adjustments that affected gross margins and continued acquisition-related costs in the quarter resulted in GAAP earnings of $0.07 per share and non-GAAP earnings of $0.21 per share.

“We made progress in building our enterprise solutions capabilities in the first quarter and are confident in our strategy to be the leading provider of end-to-end scalable solutions,” said Brian Gladden, Dell chief financial officer. “In addition, we have taken actions to improve our competitive position in key areas of the business, especially in end-user computing, and it has affected profitability. We’ll also continue to make important investments to support our strategy and drive long-term profitability.”

Results

Revenue in the quarter was $14.1 billion, a 2 percent decrease from the previous year.

GAAP operating income for the quarter was $226 million, or 1.6 percent of revenue. Non-GAAP operating income was $590 million, or 4.2 percent of revenue.

GAAP earnings per share in the quarter was 7 cents, down 81 percent from the previous year; non-GAAP EPS was 21 cents, down 51 percent.

Cash used in operations in the quarter was $39 million. On a trailing, 12-month basis, Dell has generated $3.4 billion in cash flow. Dell ended the quarter with $13.2 billion in cash and investments.

 
Information about Dell’s use of non-GAAP financial information is provided under “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” below. Non-GAAP financial information excludes amortization of purchased intangibles, severance and facility-actions, acquisition-related charges, costs incurred in Fiscal 2014 related to Dell’s proposed merger, and other items. All comparisons in this press release are year over year unless otherwise noted.

Operating Segments Summary:
As previously announced, Dell has realigned its global operating segments to its end-to-end solutions portfolio in the Enterprise Solutions Group, Dell Services, Dell Software Group, and End User Computing Group.

Enterprise Solutions Group revenue was $3.1 billion, a 10 percent increase. Operating income for the quarter was $136 million, a 71 percent increase. Dell server and networking revenue increased 16 percent as the company gained share in the calendar first quarter. Dell networking continued to deliver strong growth, with a 24 percent revenue increase, including a 46 percent growth in the company’s Force10 business. Dell storage revenue declined 10 percent.

Dell Services revenue grew 2 percent to $2.1 billion driven by an 11 percent increase in revenue for infrastructure, cloud and security services. Support and deployment revenue increased 2 percent and applications and business process services declined 15 percent. Operating income was $370 million, a 10 percent increase.

Dell Software revenue was $295 million, resulting in an operating loss. Dell enhanced its software capabilities during the quarter, investing in additional sales capability and research and development. Consistent with the company’s business strategy when it acquired Quest Software, this business is on track to be accretive to earnings in the first quarter of fiscal year 2015.

End User Computing revenue was $8.9 billion in the quarter, a 9 percent decrease. Operating income for the quarter was $224 million, a 65 percent decrease. Dell desktop and thin-client revenue declined 2 percent, mobility revenue declined 16 percent, and software from third parties and peripherals revenue declined 6 percent.

Company Outlook:
Given the company’s announcement on Feb. 5 of a definitive merger agreement to take Dell private, the company is not providing an outlook for the fiscal 2014 second quarter.

First off, Dell has moved up the date of its report. Originally set for May 21, the results will come after markets close in New York today and a conference call with analysts will start at 1:45 pm PT.

The reason for the change likely has a lot to do with the fact that Dell is probably going to report another miss on its consensus numbers. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expect Dell to report a 35 cent per-share profit on sales of $13.5 billion. But as The Wall Street Journal reported Monday, Dell expects to announce profits of about 20 cents on $14 billion in sales, a huge bottom-line miss.

It’s difficult to expect much else. Despite all the efforts made in recent years to nudge Dell in the direction of becoming a more enterprise-focused company via acquisitions in the areas of cloud computing, software and services, Dell still derives about 70 percent of its sales, give or take, from consumer or commercial PCs or PC-related accessories like monitors. And as we all know, PC sales are plummeting at a historic rate.

That’s not to say there aren’t potential bright spots. CEO Michael Dell has been crowing about the company’s success in server sales and has described market share losses by rival Hewlett-Packard as “staggering.”

Then, of course, there’s the ongoing saga of Dell’s quest to go private in a $24.4 billion buyout transaction with Silver Lake Partners. Carl Icahn and Southeastern Management, which between them control about 13 percent of Dell shares, are opposed and this week made their own counter-offer, and then nominated a slate of directors to replace Dell’s current board. Icahn has made no secret that he’d like to send Michael Dell packing. The special committee of Dell’s board overseeing the buyout process has asked the Icahn camp for more information.

Certainly there will be questions for management about all of it, though the answers from Dell management will probably be some variation of “no comment.”

By 7:30 pm ET, Cisco shares had risen to $23.06, having closed at $21.21 during the regular session. Its results, reported earlier today, were only slightly ahead of the consensus view, but as with so many things today, slightly good is good enough.

The better news is that Cisco has historically been a pretty good barometer on the state of the tech economy generally. What it sees in its results, good or bad, is what other companies usually see within a couple of quarters.

“Slow and steady growth” was the phrase of the day. Sales grew by slightly more than 5 percent, but several segments grew faster. Service revenue grew by more than 7 percent year on year, while sales of products grew 5 percent.

Products sold into data centers, mainly servers in Cisco’s UCS line, grew by a healthy 77 percent, but accounted for only $515 million, or slightly more than 4 percent of sales. Wireless sales grew by 27 percent, but at $523 million weren’t much bigger as a percentage of revenue.

Service provider video grew 30 percent, accounting for nearly $1.3 billion in sales. And at least part of that growth can be attributed to NDS, the Israeli software company for which Cisco paid $5 billion last year.

In switching, Cisco’s biggest business segment, sales were $3.4 billion, down 2 percent year on year, but when you compare that to the results of other networking companies like Juniper, Riverbed and F5 Networks that have been reporting more difficult quarters in recent weeks and months, a drop of 2 percent isn’t so bad.

I just got off the phone with Cisco CEO — and D: All Things Digital speaker — John Chambers. A quick summary of our conversation is below:

AllThingsD: John, it felt like a fairly positive quarter in a tough environment. What’s really going on?

Chambers: I’d break it into four pieces. First, it was our ninth consecutive quarter with record revenue. And it was the sixth where earnings grew faster than revenue. That’s a pretty good indicator that we’re growing well in a tough environment. Secondly, we’ve moved from being the No. 1 communications company to having a shot at being the No. 1 IT company at the moment when those two things will actually combine. … It’s that transition that we now have in front of us that’s kind of exciting. It also says that we’re in the right technologies: Cloud, data center, mobility, video. We’re also the thought leader on the Internet of everything, which will be the next major transition for the enterprise and service providers. The fourth one was the geographic breakdown. I don’t think anyone saw as strong a set of numbers in the U.S. as we did, and it was across all market segments. Public sector grew 5 percent, enterprise grew 10 percent, commercial grew 13 percent, service providers grew 10 percent. It means that our relevance is changing. It also means that, barring a surprise, the U.S. economy is going to continue to recover at this pace. And it has to for the rest of the world to come out of all this.

Let’s talk about IT. If you’re becoming more of a general IT player, if you see yourself shaking up that business, then who do you see yourself taking business away from?

In the data center, it’s clearly the IBMs, the Hewlett-Packards and the Dells of the world. In the wireless space, it’s often the startups or some of the traditional players. It wasn’t so long ago that startups like Aruba were awfully tough on us. In the data center with software and hardware and silicon coming together, there’s the people who think it’s going to be a software-only world [like Big Switch --Ed.]. We think it’s an architectural play that we’re going to win on. So our competitors are different in every category, but that’s what you want. If the customers are going to buy an architecture that solves a business problem and you’re the only major supplier that crosses the service provider and the enterprise and commercial segments, and you go from the cloud and hybrid clouds to the data centers, and reach any device and you’re agnostic about whatever device it is, that is a strong position to be in.

And still one of your biggest segments, switching, was down slightly. What’s going on there?

It has been a tough environment there. As you know, our industry peers have had terrible year-to-date numbers on their stocks. When I look at the F5s and Junipers and Riverbeds of the world, you’re seeing them surprising the market and declines in their share prices. Same thing with the IT players. We’re one of the few players that hit and exceed expectations in that category. So it speaks to our relevance changing. If you’re selling standalone products, the market gets really tough. And speaking of our competitors, a lot of them said they never saw us coming. We’re pretty good at flying under the radar at first and then blowing right by, and then being tough. We’re really tough to beat.

It’s at this point that I pick a song that I think best portrays Cisco’s results. It has become a little tradition that I began when Cisco started to turn around after another sequence of disappointing quarters, and when we talk, Chambers always asks about it.

With the phrase “slow and steady” appearing so much in Chambers’ comments, and with the quarter’s results generally feeling upbeat, I thought the muscular 1971 Aretha Franklin classic “Rock Steady” fit the bill. Here it is.

Dell is expected to report revenue of roughly $14 billion, and earnings, excluding some expenses, of 20 cents a share for the company’s just ended fiscal first quarter, according to the person briefed on the financial results.

Read the rest of this post on the original site »

I’ll have more in a minute, but for now here’s the list of names, as taken from the letter just made public in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Icahn and Southeastern appear to have nominated six directors each.

On May 13, 2013, Longleaf Partners Fund delivered a letter to the Issuer notifying the Issuer that it intends to nominate the following six persons (the “Southeastern Nominees) as nominees to the Board of Directors of the Issuer at the Issuer’s 2013 Annual Meeting of Stockholders or any other meeting at which Directors may be elected:

Matthew C. Jones
Bernard Lanigan, Jr.
Rahul N. Merchant
Peter van Oppen
Howard Silver
David A. Willmott

In addition, the Icahn Parties (as defined herein) have informed Southeastern that the Icahn Parties intend to submit a notice to the Issuer on May 13, 2013 to nominate the following six persons (the “Icahn Nominees”) as nominees to the Board of Directors of the Issuer at the Issuer’s 2013 Annual Meeting of Stockholders or any other meeting at which Directors may be elected:

Carl C. Icahn
Harry Debes
Dr. Rajendra Singh
Gary Meyers
Daniel Ninivaggi
Jonathan Christodoro

Update: Here’s some very brief biographical information on who the are:

Lanigan is the Chairman, CEO and co-founder of Southeastern Management.

Merchant was last year named the first Chief Information Officer of New York City. He’s also a former CIO at Fannie Mae.

Van Oppen is a partner in Trilogy Equity Partners, a Bellevue, Wash.-based VC firm founded by former T-Mobile USA CEO Peter Stanton that specializes in wireless investments. He’s also a former CEO of Advanced Digital Information Corp., a storage company.

Silver is the former President and CEO of hotel chain Hampton Inn Equity Inns, a hotel chain that was sold to an investment fund in 2007.

Willmott is President and COO of Blount International, a manufacturer of farm and agricultural equipment based in Portland, Ore.

Carl Icahn: Activist investor, head of the Icahn Enterprises.

Debes is the former CEO of Lawson Software, now a unit of Infor.

Meyers is the CEO of a software company called FusionOps, and the former CEO of Synplicity, a company that makes software to design a type of chip known as a field programmable gate array. It’s now a part of Synopsys.

Ninivaggi is the president and CEO of Icahn Enterprises.

Christodoro is a managing director at Icahn Enterprises.

Jones is the CEO of EOS Climate, a technology and service company specializes in the management and destruction of refrigerants. Before that he was CEO of CloudShield, a cyber security outfit.

Update: I added bio information for Jones and made some corrections to the information about Silver. I also added a little more info on Merchant.

Icahn on Friday unveiled a joint proposal with Southeastern Management, Dell’s largest outside shareholder, that would give Dell shareholders the option to continue holding shares in the company, and take an additional $12 a share in cash or stock. The offer came as an alternative to a $24.4 billion leveraged buyout proposed by Dell founder and CEO Michael Dell and the private equity fund Silver Lake Partners.

The board’s special committee asked Icahn and Southeastern to spell out specifics of its plans for Dell, and questioned whether or not the proposal was a serious one.

“It is not clear to us whether you intend to formulate your transaction as an actual acquisition proposal that the Board could evaluate and potentially endorse or accept or rather to propose it as an alternative that the Board could consider in the event the pending sale to Silver Lake and Michael Dell is not approved,” the committee said in its letter, which you can read in full below.

In the letter, Dell’s committee also asked Icahn and Southeastern to spell out financing terms — the plan calls for taking on a lot of debt — and how it would provide cash to keep the company running after using up much of Dell’s pile of cash to pay shareholders.

Icahn owns a stake in Dell that amounts to about 4.5 percent of shares outstanding, and Southeastern owns about 8 percent. They’ve both been pretty critical of the Dell-Silver Lake proposal. In televised comments on CNBC Friday, Icahn said that Dell’s existing shareholders will “literally get screwed” by the deal, which values Dell at $13.65 a share. Southeastern has previously described the Dell-Silver Lake buyout plan as “inadequate.”

The other shoe expected to drop today on the Dell front will also come from the Icahn camp. Icahn said he plans to nominate a new slate of Dell directors, and that the list would be made public today. It will be interesting to see whose names are on it.

Dell shares were indicating they would open lower this morning in premarket trading. As of 8:23 am ET, Dell was trading down four cents from Friday’s close, to $13.41.

Anyway, here’s the latest letter:

May 13, 2013
Mr. Carl C. Icahn
Icahn Enterprises L.P.
767 Fifth Avenue, 47th Floor
New York, NY 10153

Mr. G. Staley Cates
Southeastern Asset Management Inc.
6410 Poplar Avenue, Suite 900
Memphis, TN 38119
Icahn/Southeastern Proposal

Dear Mr. Icahn and Mr. Cates:

We have received your letter dated May 9, 2013, addressed to the Board of Directors of Dell Inc. (“Dell” or the “Company”), in which you outline a potential transaction in which the Company’s stockholders would be entitled to elect to receive either $12.00 per share in cash or $12.00 in additional shares (based on a value your letter assumes to be $1.65 per share) for each share currently held, in addition to retaining their current shares.

It is not clear to us whether you intend to formulate your transaction as an actual acquisition proposal that the Board could evaluate and potentially endorse or accept or rather to propose it as an alternative that the Board could consider in the event the pending sale to Silver Lake and Michael Dell is not approved. In order for the Special Committee of the Board of Directors of Dell to evaluate the transaction you have proposed and potentially negotiate terms which could cause it to constitute a Superior Proposal within the meaning of the pending Merger Agreement, we would need certain clarifications and additional materials, as set forth below.

Please provide a draft of the definitive agreement pursuant to which the transaction would be effected. The Special Committee needs to understand the full terms and structure of the transaction, the extent to which it would be conditioned upon future events and actions, and the remedies that would be available to the Company and its stockholders if the transaction is not consummated.

Please provide comprehensive information regarding the proposed financing for the transaction. We need to understand the terms of the debt financing, and contingencies available if cash on hand or stockholder rollovers are less than anticipated. We would also need to see drafts of forms of commitment papers (and any proposed bridge facility) so that we can assess the certainty of closing.

Please indicate the counterparty and terms of the proposed receivables sale or financing and provide a draft of form of commitment letter or purchase agreement applicable to this proposed sale or financing.

Please describe any contemplated arrangements to provide working capital or other liquidity following the closing. Your proposal does not appear to take into account the additional borrowings that would seem to be required to address the liquidity needs that would result from the extent to which you would use the Company’s cash in the transaction and the fact that you would sell accounts receivable, which would have the effect of reducing future cash flows. In addition to working capital, the Company is likely to have other significant cash needs, such as approximately $1.7 billion of debt maturities within approximately 12 months after closing.

Your proposal assumes that holders of at least 20 percent of Dell’s shares will elect to receive distributions in the form of additional Dell shares. Please provide the forms of commitment letters pursuant to which your affiliated entities would commit to elect to receive additional shares. In addition, please indicate whether you would obtain similar commitments from holders representing an additional 8 percent of Dell’s shares (we note, based on your Schedule 13D filings, that your affiliated entities have investment discretion over approximately 12 percent of Dell’s outstanding shares). If you would not obtain such commitments, please indicate as noted above, the source of the additional cash needed to fund cash distributions in respect of these shares.

Please provide your analysis as to whether the receipt of additional shares by stockholders electing to receive share distributions will be taxable to those stockholders.

Please identify the persons you would expect to form the senior management team of Dell following the transaction, and what role these persons would play in arranging the financing for the proposed transaction. Also, please provide us with a description of the strategy and operating plan you would expect this management team to implement. This information is important both to our assessment of the value of the proposed equity stub and to an evaluation of the financing and completion risk for a highly leveraged transaction of the kind you propose.

Please provide the form of any shareholder agreement, or any pertinent term sheet, governing the relationship between the Icahn and Southeastern affiliated entities so the Special Committee can better understand how decisions relating to the transaction and the Company would be made following the signing of a definitive agreement and following closing of the transaction.

If you have questions about the requested information, please contact Roger Altman, Will Hiltz or Naveen Nataraj at Evercore Partners.

Very truly yours,

The Special Committee
of the Board of Directors
of Dell Inc.

Taking to CNBC’s airwaves in another one of his candid phoned-in afternoon rants (the last was an epic 28-minute on-air slugfest with hedge fund investor Bill Ackman in January) with host Scott Wapner during the closing half hour or so of the network’s “Fast Money Halftime Report” show, Icahn revealed that on Monday he will nominate a slate of 12 new directors and, if successful, he’ll see to it that Michael Dell doesn’t remain CEO. “He will not be running the company,” Icahn said.

“It’s not that I have anything against [Michael] Dell. I’m sure he’s a very nice guy,” Icahn said. “But it’s a new world out there.”

Icahn has had a busy day on the Dell front. First he reported in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that his stake in Dell amounts to 4.52 percent. He also joined Southeastern Asset Management, Dell’s largest outside shareholder, in making a joint bid for the company. (The Wall Street Journal’s Moneybeat has the full text of the joint Icahn-Southeastern letter to Dell’s board here.)

The special committee of Dell’s board has in the last several minutes issued a statement saying it is “carefully reviewing” the Icahn-Southeastern offer.

“Mr. Icahn and Southeastern have outlined a potential leveraged recapitalization transaction that they want the Dell Board either to recommend at this time or to consider if the existing going-private transaction is rejected by Dell shareholders. They have also proposed replacing the Board with a slate of new directors who they say would approve such a transaction. Consistent with the Special Committee’s goal of achieving the best possible outcome for all shareholders, we and our advisors are carefully reviewing the potential transaction to assess the potential risks and rewards to the public shareholders.”

In his televised jeremiad, Icahn blasted Dell’s board and said that Dell shareholders will “literally get screwed” by the $24.4 billion Michael Dell/Silver Lake offer to take the company private in a leveraged buyout. His offer, he said, would leave existing shareholders with a publicly traded stub that would allow them to make more money than the $13.65 per share Dell and Silver Lake have offered.

Below, two video highlights. The second one focuses more on Wapner’s fascination with Icahn’s opinion of the legendary Wall Street short-seller Jim Chanos, who has previously publicly stated that he has been shorting Dell shares. “I’ve made a lot of money going against Chanos,” Icahn said.

Of course it goes without saying that all the attention on Dell caused the shares to trade upward during the half hour or so that Icahn was on CNBC. Ahead of 1 pm ET, Dell shares were trading as high as $13.51, or up more than 1 percent. After Icahn hung up (and apparently called BloombergTV to make a similar on-air speech), its price settled back down. Here’s a screen grab I took of Dell’s share price via Yahoo Finance.

In a letter to Dell’s board, Mr. Icahn and Southeastern said they propose giving Dell shareholders the option to keep holding stock in the company, and take an additional $12 a share in cash or stock, according to a copy of the correspondence reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

Read the rest of this post on the original site »

On Friday afternoon, Dell gave an interview to the trade publication CRN (which used to be called Computer Reseller News) crowing about his company’s apparent share gains in the market for servers.

What got him excited was preliminary data (as in, not yet published) from the market research firm IDC, which followed similar findings from another research firm, Gartner (again, not yet published), that supposedly shows healthy gains for Dell and big losses at HP.

According to the numbers Dell shared with CRN, IDC found Dell — No. 2 in the worldwide server market — to have grown its share of the server market to nearly 28 percent, while HP’s fell from north of 35 percent a year to slightly below 31 percent. “HP is losing share at a staggering rate, and they are losing it to Dell,” Dell proclaimed.

HP, which had led the segment for the better part of two decades, didn’t respond to Dell’s claims. But it did respond a day earlier, after Dell enterprise chief Marius Haas gave a similar interview — again to CRN — claiming similar data from Gartner. “One quarter does not a trend make. … 17 years is a trend,” retorted Jim Ganthier, a marketing exec in HP’s server group.

Dell hasn’t bothered to wait for either research firm to finalize and publish their data, and I’ve asked both firms to comment on that. I’m no expert in the processes these firms follow, but from what I understand, execs at companies like Dell, HP and IBM see these “preliminary” figures before they get published in order to give the company a chance to dispute them if they vary from what’s really going on. When Gartner and IDC get around to publishing press releases, expect Dell to make a second push on this topic, and maybe give more interviews.

Dell naturally has an urge to pounce on HP and score a few punches. HP has been using the occasion of Dell’s $24.4 billion leveraged-buyout plan to create uncertainty among Dell customers. Way back on Feb. 5, when the buyout plan was first floated, HP issued a statement saying, “Leveraged buyouts tend to leave existing customers and innovation at the curb. We believe Dell’s customers will now be eager to explore alternatives, and HP plans to take full advantage of that opportunity.”

With IBM said to be in on-again, off-again talks with China’s Lenovo to sell its industry-standard server business, and Dell going private, HP is arguing that it is the one major vendor not engaged in a significant corporate shake-up, and thus able to focus most on its customers’ needs. Indeed, HP’s Dave Donatelli led a major Webcast with HP partners last week, touting that very message.

Neither company’s shares are really responding to any of the trash-talking today. HP shares are up slightly this morning to $20.76 a share, while Dell shares are also up a little to $13.35, or about 30 cents below the $13.65 buyout price that Michael Dell and private-equity firm Silver Lake have offered to take the company private.

In a very brief press release, Dell said Breyer notified the company that he doesn’t intend to stand for reelection at the meeting.

That’s when Dell shareholders will be voting on a controversial $24.4 billion plan hatched by CEO Michael Dell and the private equity firm Silver Lake to take the company private in a leveraged buyout. Breyer’s vote on the matter will likely be among his final acts as a Dell director. Breyer had served on Dell’s board since 2009.

“Dell and its stockholders have benefitted greatly from the leadership and perspective Jim has provided during his tenure on the Dell board,” Michael Dell said in the statment. “We’re grateful for his guidance and we wish him well in all his future endeavors.”

This is Breyer’s third resignation from a high-profile director’s seat in recent days. Only three days ago, Facebook said in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that Breyer would be stepping down from its board, a position he has held since 2005. And last week, Walmart announced that Breyer would “rotate off the board in accordance with our corporate governance guidelines” after June 7.

He still sits on the boards of video company Brightcove and also of News Corp. (which is, of course, the parent company of AllThingsD.)

A “potential acquirer with access to non-public information decided to end its quest to acquire Dell at a higher price. Since they had information we didn’t, we believed it was prudent to assume they might be right. So we sold our stock and will put the proceeds into other stocks that we are more confident are undervalued,” said Bill Nygren, co-portfolio manager of the Oakmark Fund, Oakmark Select Fund and Oakmark Global Select Fund, in a statement published Wednesday.

Read the rest of this post on the original site »

That was the conclusion Blackstone Group LP reached about Dell Inc. after it set a small army off to decide whether the private-equity firm should bid for the computer maker.

Blackstone on Thursday told a special Dell board committee negotiating a sale of the company that, after weeks of review, it wouldn’t be moving ahead with a bid. It cited an “unprecedented” decline in PC sales and Dell’s “rapidly eroding financial profile.”

Read the rest of this post on the original site »

That’s the conclusion of Chris Whitmore, an analyst with Deutsche Bank Securities, in the wake of yesterday’s earnings report. “IBM hasn’t missed consensus earnings expectations for eight years which raises the specter of increased macro risk and substantially weaker IT hardware spending,” he wrote in a note to clients today.

IBM is better than most at managing sales that turn south in one part of its business, but still able to make its numbers, he writes. That it wasn’t able to do so this quarter “raises a red flag” for other tech companies, especially those that sell a lot of hardware, including Hewlett-Packard, Dell, NetApp and EMC. “The IBM miss is a decidedly negative read through for the entire IT hardware segment and we are incrementally more cautious on the sector,” Whitmore wrote.

Expect a lot of attention on IT spending trends in the coming weeks, as other large IT companies get ready to report their results. The next big indicator will be when EMC reports quarterly results next week. HP, Dell and NetApp all report results in mid-May.

Blackstone had been putting together a bid for Dell to trump the $24.4 billion offer from founder and Chief Executive Michael Dell and private-equity firm Silver Lake Partners. Blackstone’s offer would have kept part of the company in the hands of public shareholders.

Read the rest of this post on the original site »

Intel shares have traded lower since last Thursday, when the market research firms IDC and Gartner said they had tracked one of the largest year-on-year declines in sales of personal computers since records have been kept. Intel is the largest supplier of microprocessors to PC manufacturers like Hewlett-Packard, Dell and Apple, and it’s hard to see how much good news it can possibly bring to the table today.

Analysts are expecting Intel to report a profit of 41 cents per share on sales of $12.6 billion, and missing either would be seen as more or less proving that the PC market is in a state of permanent decline. So would a weak outlook for the current quarter, for which analysts currently expect earnings of 40 cents on $12.9 billion in sales.

There are other aspects to Intel’s business. It has a healthy data center business selling chips for use in servers, but out of more than $53 billion in sales last year, $34 billion, or more than 61 percent, was in its “client,” or PC, unit, while the data center group accounted for about $10.7 billion.

In the past, Intel executives have quarreled with the analyst firms, and said it was seeing more promising conditions in emerging markets. Indeed, in prior years there has been a disconnect between the dour pronouncements of Gartner and IDC and the peppier market conditions that Intel would later describe in its financial results in places like Brazil, Indonesia and Russia. In more recent quarters, the differences between their views have narrowed.

Aside from PCs, Intel has some new ideas that it hopes will kick its data center business into a higher gear. And it certainly has higher hopes about selling more chips for use in phones and tablets, but as yet they’re only hopes. It also plans to launch a TV product later this year.

Aside from the numbers, expect some questions — and maybe even some answers, but probably nothing conclusive yet — about the search for a replacement for CEO Paul Otellini. The smart money says the choice will be an internal one (here’s a rundown on the contenders), though there’s a slim chance that Intel’s board might be in the mood to surprise everyone and name an outsider. But don’t bet any money you can’t afford to lose on that.

The activist investor reached a deal with the special committee of the computer maker that will allow him to consult with other holders as he considers whether to move forward with his preliminary bid to buy up to 58 percent of the company for $15 a share. But while he can talk to others, he is not allowed to sign them up for a group that would give him control of more than 15 percent of Dell shares. Icahn is also not allowed to own more than 10 percent of shares himself.

Read the rest of this post on the original site »

Here’s a quick rundown: Hewlett-Packard fell more than 6 percent to $20.88. Dell fell more than 1 percent to $14.04. Apple fell slightly to $434.33. Intel fell 2 percent to $21.83. Advanced Micro Devices fell 3.5 percent to $2.52. Microsoft fell almost 4.5 percent to $28.93. Hard drive manufacturer Seagate fell 3 percent to $36.53. Western Digital fell 2.5 percent to $17.53. All told, they fell by an average of about 2.85 percent.

It was that kind of day, and the financial analysts who track the stocks of the PC makers had to jump in with their own assessments.

“We ultimately don’t believe that tablets are ‘replacing’ PCs (very few people we have met have actually retired their PC because of a tablet),” analyst Toni Sacconaghi of Bernstein wrote in a note to clients today, “but they are contributing to PCs being used less — which, in turn, is pushing out the replacement cycle for PCs. This is a big deal.”

He also said that HP in particular, which according to IDC’s reckoning saw a decline in PC sales of more than 23 percent year on year in the first quarter, may miss sales estimates by more than $700 million as a result. “A key question is whether the contraction in volume (potentially $1 billion in revenue) will have a material impact on PC margins,” he wrote. “We suspect that some of HP’s share loss was the result of increased pricing discipline and a focus on margins in the quarter.”

Shaw Wu, analyst with Sterne Agee, placed at least some of the blame for the market’s poor performance at Microsoft’s door. “We frankly believe Microsoft’s strategy of forcing user interface changes that nobody wants has proven to be a disaster,” he wrote in a note issued today. “Not to mention the customer confusion with too many choices with multiple form factors.” He now expects the PC market to contract in 2013 by 5 percent, down further from his earlier 2 percent guidance.

Yesterday’s reports from the market research firms IDC and Gartner showed conclusively what pretty much anyone paying attention had already suspected — that the bottom has finally fallen out of the PC business. During the first quarter of 2013, the combined shipments showed their worst year-on-year decline ever.

Reversing that trend is probably not an option, which means that a fundamentally new chapter in the history of the personal computer industry is unequivocally here. Shareholders in those companies will start making value judgments accordingly. That was in evidence in the premarket trading this morning.

With a few minutes to go before the opening of markets in New York, shares of market leader Hewlett-Packard were down by nearly 6 percent. Dell, still the subject of an ongoing fight over its proposed $24.4 billion plan to go private in a leveraged buyout transaction, was down only slightly.

Chipmaker Intel was down nearly 3 percent. Advanced Micro Devices, Intel’s one remaining rival, was down 2.7 percent. Microsoft, the primary supplier of operating system software to the world’s PCs, was down 3.5 percent.

Apple, the maker of the iPad, which arguably has disrupted the PC industry, but is also North America’s third-largest supplier of PCs, was down by $2, or less than half of a percentage point.