AllThingsD » demographic

Daddy, I Want an iPhone NOW!

John Paczkowski — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 10:40:57 +0000

No big surprises here. Thirty-four percent of teens living in the U.S. own an iPhone, and 40 percent of those who don’t are expecting to buy one in the next six months.

This according to Piper Jaffray’s 23rd semiannual survey of 5,600 American teenagers, which finds continued, rising interest for the device in the high-school demographic. The percentage of teens who own an iPhone rose to 34 percent from 23 percent in fall 2011, and 17 percent in spring 2011. Meanwhile, the percentage of those who hope to own one rose from 38 percent and 37 percent during the same time periods. The likely driver of those increases: The cheaper iPhone 4 and 3GS.

Good news for Apple, since the teen demographic is a critical component of long-term growth and, as Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster notes, “historically interest in buying an iPhone has correlated to future market share gains among teens.”

Not surprisingly, tablet interest in the teen market is also on the rise, with much of it focused on the iPad. Thirty-four percent of the teens Piper surveyed said they already own a tablet, up from 29 percent from fall 2011. Of those, 70 percent had iPads, 19 percent some model of Android tablet and 11 percent a Kindle Fire.

Among teens who don’t yet own tablets, 19 percent said they planned to buy one in the next six months, with 80 percent of that group saying they planned to buy an iPad. And though there was a 3 percent decline in respondents interested in purchasing tablets between fall 2011 and spring 2012, the fact that most of them are leaning toward the iPad reveals a clear trend here. So again, good news for Apple, as Munster notes.

“We expect Apple to remain popular with younger users, which we believe could help establish a continually growing base of loyal users,” said Munster. “We believe that as Apple continues to discount prior model iPads (i.e. iPad 2 to $399) and eventually releases a smaller screen, lower priced iPad, iPad ownership will continue to rise.”

Got Broadband? Not Sure? There's a Map for That.

Arik Hesseldahl — Thu, 17 Feb 2011 22:30:04 +0000

When President Obama came into office, one of his first significant acts on the tech front was a $7.8 billion broadband stimulus effort, aimed at handing out grants and loan guarantees for projects meant to bring fast Internet connections to areas where coverage was scarce or nonexistent.

Nestled within that amount was $350 million to draw a map showing a detailed, block-by-block inventory of the existing broadband infrastructure in the U.S. It took two years, but the results were unveiled by the National Telecommunications and Information Administration today on the Web site Broadbandmap.gov.

This is far from the first time someone has tried to tackle the problem of mapping existing broadband pipes in order to show where service is lacking. But prior attempts have generally been haphazard because service providers tend to carefully guard the precise maps of their physical plant as competitively sensitive. And prior federal efforts fell short because the maps were based on ZIP codes. If one person in some geographically large but sparsely populated rural ZIP code had access to service, prior federal maps showed that area as “served,” even if the majority of the population didn’t have access. The new map uses the far more granular census tracts.

The map shows some new data that shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone who’s been following the saga of broadband in America: Anywhere from 5 to 10 percent of Americans lack access to broadband at acceptable speeds. Recall that the Federal Communications Commission last July set a benchmark of 4 megabits per second downstream and 1 MBPS upstream as what it considers acceptable.

Another key finding is that so-called “community anchor institutions” are going without adequate access to broadband. These are schools, libraries and hospitals, where different kinds of services are needed. As a rule of thumb, a school needs about 50 to 100 MBPS for every 1,000 students, and most of the schools surveyed had speeds of 25 MBPS or less, and precious few libraries reported speeds approaching that.

When residential service isn’t available, these are the institutions that people turn to when they need to use the Internet. A few years ago I visited a rural county in Tennessee where the local library had broadband and provided free wireless. If you watched the parking lot after the library was closed you’d often see people pull their cars up with laptops and use the Wi-Fi to work on homework assignments with the kids. Even the local sheriff’s deputies would pull up and use it to check their email.

There was some good news. Alongside the map, the NTIA released a separate report on broadband adoption. It found that 68 percent of households have access to a cable modem, a DSL line or a home fiber connection, up from less than 64 percent a year ago. The usual demographic disparities remain: People living on low incomes or with disabilities, along with seniors, minorities and those with low educational attainment, tend to lag behind other groups in home access. The city-country divide remains as well: 70 percent of city dwellers, versus 60 percent of rural residents, access broadband at home.

But here’s a stat that should surprise you: 28.3 percent of all the people in the nation do not use the Internet, period. That’s down about two percentage points from a year ago, but still means that out of every 25 Americans, seven don’t use the Internet at all. I don’t know about you, but that surprises me.

Help! I'm Addicted to CityVille

Liz Gannes — Wed, 22 Dec 2010 13:00:48 +0000

Earlier this month, I had a lot of nervous energy and a bunch of spare time on my hands, since my husband was in the hospital for an unusually complicated appendectomy. He’s much better now, but I haven’t fully recovered, because I picked up a bad case of addiction to CityVille, the newly released social game from Zynga.

CityVille is the perfect hospital waiting-room activity. You click to create buildings and plant crops, click to harvest them and collect money from your shops, click to visit your friends’ cities and help them do the same things.

Unlike in a real city, everything you can possibly accomplish in the game is good. You receive money, goods, reputation points, energy and random bonus prizes constantly.

Most of these are useful, but some of them are not. For instance, I currently have a stock of 22 virtual danishes received as bonuses from my in-game coffee shop, and no way to spend them.

Among the early adopter types I know in the tech industry, there’s a sense that casual gaming on Facebook serves an entirely different demographic from their own. The thinking is that games from Zynga and the like replace relatively mindless activities like watching soap operas.

But as someone who has just reorganized her virtual retail shops to be surrounded by virtual trees, so as to accumulate more virtual bonus points, I can see how social gaming–especially as it gets more social–might appeal to the desire for mindless diversions in all of us.

And, I began to get an answer to a question I am asked a lot: Why are so many people playing these seemingly meaningless games?

CityVille is Zynga’s latest attempt to extend the dominance of its breakout social game FarmVille, which has long been the most popular such diversion on Facebook.

Of all of Zynga’s games, CityVille has been heralded as the most social to date, with new features such as a franchise system that allows users to actually participate in the building of their friends’ cities. Personally, I’ve never gotten into FarmVille, although it’s obviously quite addictive as well and hugely popular.

Chalk it up to the new social features, the slightly less awkward and cutesy 3-D graphics, or a momentary openness to mindless diversion on my part, but CityVille is the only Facebook game that’s truly sucked me in so far.

Zynga says CityVille is its fastest-growing game ever. According to AppData, CityVille has 54 million monthly active users, for second place overall (and only two million behind FarmVille).

There are no consequences in CityVille and there is no strategy. There’s also no winning (rather, as in FarmVille, an endlessly extending horizon of tasks to complete).

The worst thing that can happen is a crop can wither or you can allocate your “energy” to collecting rent and not have enough to empty the cash registers at your stores.

But, not to worry–come back in five minutes and there’s another unit of energy waiting for you.

CityVille is satisfying on a superficial level that I hadn’t thought possible. It’s not even like Angry Birds, my former casual game of choice, which breaks all sorts of age and language barriers in its simplicity, but still requires you to position the slingshot correctly and think through the physics of the various projectiles.

In CityVille, all you do is click, click, click.

Zynga seems to want three things from users: Their time, their money and their recruitment of their friends. As for time, I’ve given plenty of it, although you usually run out of stuff to do about 15 minutes into any one session (Zynga wouldn’t want game play to be a burden or feel too complicated).

But I’m not sure my obsession is paying off for Zynga. I’ve spent a grand total of 50 cents on the game. That’s because I wanted to spend the 15 Facebook credits I’d gotten as part of a launch promotion, but Zynga had a minimum purchase of 20 credits. Coughing up two quarters got me the difference–and it also hooked up my Facebook account to my PayPal account for the first time.

I currently have 20 CityVille “neighbors.” They are Facebook connections from all different parts of my life, including high school friends, tech industry people and fellow reporters. We get credits for heading over to each other’s cities and helping out, accepting roles at each other’s city halls and other municipal buildings and setting up franchises in each other’s cities and resupplying them.

And Zynga constantly harasses us to post on our own or other people’s Facebook walls to ask them for in-game gifts and brag about in-game achievements.

Conscious of polluting other people’s walls and admitting to people how much CityVille I play, I usually decline all the offers to broadcast my CityVille needs and accomplishments. But it’s clear Zynga could stand to add even more communication channels if it wanted to; a friend recently emailed me off-game to ask if I could hurry up and send him a CityVille zoning permit.

I get the sense most of my particular set of neighbors haven’t given Zynga a lot of cash for virtual goods, considering our cities are growing at about the same rate and I see them on there at least once a day helping tend to my crops and resupplying their franchises. There are no in-game advertisements.

A few of my neighbors, however, have accumulated premium goodies galore. A certain Facebook exec’s city is decorated with paid-for doodads like a basketball court, tennis court and bronze statue–but I imagine it’s not too hard for him, of all people, to stock up on Facebook credits.

A particular start-up CEO who’s my virtual neighbor seems to play on an hourly basis. He has already hit level 35. You know that somewhere a Zynga engineer is scurrying to create more tasks and content to add more levels to keep up with him and other addicts.

And only one of my neighbors appears to have never returned to the game after setting up her initial city.

Meanwhile, my own city keeps on growing. I’m currently at level 26. I’m now the mayor of my city and considering a run for governor.

But, now that I’m back from the hospital, I’d honestly really like to stop playing this game and let the healing begin.

Update: Since I first wrote a draft of this post on Sunday CityVille added 10 million users. I’ve updated the stats as of Wednesday morning.

Twitter Is So Mainstream Now: Eight Percent of Online Americans Use It

Liz Gannes — Thu, 09 Dec 2010 08:20:26 +0000

Young, urban, minority, women, well-educated. What do these demographic factors spell out? The categories of American Internet users who are most likely to use Twitter. That’s according to new survey data released by the Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project.

Overall, eight percent of U.S. online adults use Twitter, or six percent of the total American adult population.

The single category where Twitter has taken most hold is Hispanic Internet users, with 18 percent of them telling Pew they use Twitter. That’s compared to just five percent of white adults. Fourteen percent of 18- to 29-year-olds use Twitter, and 11 percent of urban Internet users.

Ten percent of female Internet users say they are on Twitter, while only seven percent of male users are.

Pew interviewed more than 20,000 people for the survey, which was the first Twitter-specific research it has done.

The latest official number from Twitter is 175 million global registered users.

AngelPad, an Incubator for Entrepreneurs With Credentials

Liz Gannes — Thu, 11 Nov 2010 19:12:20 +0000

AngelPad, the new incubator created by former Googlers, held its first end-of-session Demo Day last night at its office on a dead-end alley in San Francisco’s SOMA district. It was a familiar format for those who have been to Y Combinator and TechStars Demo Days, and indeed just about every one of the hundred or so investors in the room is a frequent presence at those events.

Thomas Korte

AngelPad is captained by the amiable and energetic former Google product evangelist Thomas Korte, who brought in many of the eight participating start-ups from his personal connections. They included somewhat typical tech start-up fare: A couple of Web curation tools (Curated.by and Snip.ly), a get-together planning app (RollCall) and a simpler interface for selling your stuff online (EggCartel). There was also a user-generated outdoors site (AllTrails) and an app that tracks the energy consumption of computers and other devices (Hug Energy).

Probably the most notable difference between AngelPad and other incubators is the level of high-profile experience most of its founders already have. At least half seemed to have worked on product and engineering at Google, and others come from established companies like Microsoft, Yelp, Playdom and RockYou.

(Also, is it just me, or does the name AngelPad scream for a reality show that would be sort of like “Real World” mashed with “Top Chef” about Silicon Valley start-ups?)

After the demos, I asked MoPub founder Jim Payne, who managed product for Google Maps Premier and AdMob metrics, what he and his co-founders thought the AngelPad differentiator is. He said, “As compared to Y Combinator?” I said, “First of all, as compared to doing this outside an incubator.”

Payne replied that he “wouldn’t and couldn’t” have started his company without an incubator, and that taking that route would be forcibly sitting yourself and your start-up “out in the weeds.”

MoPub is a mobile ad server, and will soon announce its first round of funding, said Payne. He and other AngelPad participants said they liked the small size of the program and the more free-form curriculum as compared to more established incubators.

Sean Plaice of Hug Energy at AngelPad's first Demo Day

Bill Tai of Charles River Ventures, who had been chatting with Payne when I walked up, bid him goodbye with the admonition to let Tai get in on the MoPub round. Tai told me that he thought MoPub and Adku were the most interesting of the AngelPad eight. Adku wants to help e-commerce sites optimize what products they are featuring using real-time data mining about what’s relevant to a visitor’s location and demographic.

Tai said he agreed that founders in the first AngelPad class do have more experience, particularly at large companies. But he added that’s not necessarily always an asset. “At Y Combinator there may be a higher probability of a breakout idea,” Tai said, “because less-experienced people don’t have context.”

Full D8 Tech Demo Video: Microsoft's Project Natal

Kara Swisher — Fri, 11 Jun 2010 17:15:16 +0000

Since Microsoft will be officially unveiling its Project Natal at the Electronic Entertainment Expo gaming show next week in Los Angeles, take a preview gander of it in action at the eighth D: All Things Digital conference recently.

At E3, the software giant will give the innovative gesture-based controller for the Xbox a spanking new name and will likely announce other related features.

We already showed off Natal at D8 last week, saying “the experience is somewhere between the Nintendo Wii and Tom Cruise’s computer in ‘Minority Report,’ with hands, arms, legs and even heads interacting with the game.”

As we also noted, the system works using cameras and microphones, along with some fancy programming, to remove the controller pad from play. With Natal, Microsoft (MSFT) aims to include groups outside of the typical young male demographic in gaming.

Here’s the video of the full session of the demo, which includes the game-playing stylings of my No. 1 son, Louie. And, yes, me too–as you will see, I stink at online games.

Enjoy:

[ See post to watch video ]

Are Web Ads Only for Oldsters? Yahoo's Disturbing Study.

Peter Kafka — Tue, 12 Jan 2010 20:06:56 +0000

Brand advertising, the kind you’re used to seeing on TV and in print, isn’t nearly as big on the Internet as the search ads dominated by Google (GOOG). But that’s got to change, as marketers realize that traditional advertising works on the Web, too.

The above is an article of faith among a certain kind of Web publisher. And some of them are even paying for studies to prove that display ads–basically all the ads you see that aren’t part of search results–really do work on the Web.

Except when they don’t. That’s the unsettling conclusion that some research funded by Yahoo (YHOO) recently reached, the San Francisco Chronicle reports.

The study was produced by the Web giant’s Yahoo Labs, which has been getting new attention in the Carol Bartz regime and beefing up its staff of social scientists by “adding highly credentialed cognitive psychologists, economists and ethnographers from top universities around the world.”

One of the new hires, economics professor David Reiley, tried to track the benefits of a Yahoo ad campaign on behalf of a retail chain. He found that the ads did work, but only for people born before Woodstock:

The research, conducted in partnership with an undisclosed national retailer, sought to accurately measure the impact of Internet display advertising across online and offline sales, by tracking people who had registered with both Yahoo and the store. The research found an approximately 5 percent increase in spending among those who had seen the ads–with 93 percent of those sales occurring in stores.

The potentially worrisome thing, however, was that among those under 40, the percentage was nearly zero. That could reflect the unpopularity of the particular retailer among that demographic. Or it could underscore a growing immunity to display advertising among the Web-savvy younger generation.

Yikes. I asked Yahoo for its take on the study and the company sent me a (not surprisingly) sunnier summary of the research. Some of its highlights:

Major Findings:
By combining a controlled experiment with panel data on purchases, we find statistically and economically significant impacts of advertising on sales.

We estimate the total effect on revenues to be more than eleven times the retailer’s expenditure on advertising during the study.
93% of the effect was on offline (in store) sales.

Persistence: The effects of the campaigns were persistent over time, meaning that the sales impact could be tracked for a period of time after the campaign ended.

Demographics: there was no significant correlation or differences w/r/t location (by state) or gender.

But there was a significant difference w/r/t to age: customers over the age of 40 were significantly more responsive to the ads in terms of sales. The largest effect came from senior citizens (65+).

Clicks versus non-Clicks: Though clicks are a standard measure of performance in online-advertising, we find that online advertising has substantial effects on those who merely view but do not click the ads.

We find that 78% of the effect in sales comes from those who view ads but do not click them, while only 22% can be attributed to those who click.

Count me among the group disposed to think that brand ads on the Web do work, by the way. But then again, I have a vested interest in this being true since it’s what’s supposed to keep me clothed and fed. I’d hate to see scientific proof that it’s all a pipe dream.

For a contrary perspective, funded by people whose interests align with mine, check out this study funded by the Online Publishers Association.

[Image credit: pedrosimoes7]

Verizon Droid: Don’t Be a Sissy

John Paczkowski — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 15:00:39 +0000

The male ego is a fragile thing. The last thing you want is a phone that challenges it with an effeminate form factor and pantywaist performance specs. As a guy, you want a phone that doesn’t emasculate you every time you whip it out. Otherwise, you might become insecure and resentful.

Evidently, that’s the conceit of Verizon’s (VZ) latest ad for the Motorola (MOT) Droid, which touts it as a HE-MAN super-smartphone over Apple’s (AAPL) prissy iPhone.

“Should a phone be pretty,” Verizon’s ad asks. “Should it be a tiara-wearing digitally-clueless beauty pageant queen? Or should it be fast? Racehorse-duct-taped-to-a-Scud-missile fast? We say the latter. So we built the phone that does. Does rip through the Web like a circular saw through a ripe banana. Is it a precious porcelain figurine of a phone? No. It’s not a princess. It’s a robot. A phone that trades hair-do for can-do.”

Droid. It’s a phone, an Internet device and a male-enhancement solution in one. Congratulations, Verizon; this ad is going to kill with the “men 18 and older” demographic.

Who's Watching What on YouTube? See for Yourself.

Peter Kafka — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 13:00:05 +0000

If you’re someone who gets paid to market to people who use YouTube, there’s a good chance you already know about TestTube, the site’s suite of experimental services. The rest of us will find interesting novelties, like “Insights for Audience”: A nifty way to find out what people like–or unlike–you are watching.

The tool has been around for a while and got a formal roll out earlier this fall, but Google (GOOG) product manager Nick Jacobi just showed it off to the chattering (and tweeting) classes gathered at the Monaco Media Forum, so it’s going to get another burst of attention. (Also of interest, apparently: A dustup between Axel Springer CEO Mathias Döpfner and Arianna Huffington. Looking forward to watching that.)

Anyway, the Insights tool is self-explanatory and entertaining, at the very least. For instance, I used it to find out what 35-44 year-old males who like advertising, beer and football (ahem) are watching, and got this results page.

The most interesting part of the results is a mosaic of videos (above; click to enlarge) that my target demographic is watching, which includes some obvious stuff, like “Amazing NFL Football Catches,” and some really obscure stuff, like an episode of “Shazam.” I also found this Kirby Puckett tribute, which pleased me to no end:

Is Everyone Using Twitter Yet? Nope.

Peter Kafka — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 13:52:49 +0000

The digerati spend a lot of time talking about Twitter’s growth, Twitter’s business and Twitter’s dealmaking. But at this point, many of us tend to take Twitter’s users for granted: We assume that everyone uses it, or at least everyone we know.

But we’re not exactly right. New statistics from the Pew Internet Project indicate that 19 percent of U.S. Internet users are on the service on a regular basis. To spell out the obvious: One in five is a lot of people, but it’s not everyone.

This is worth remembering as Google (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT) move to integrate Twitter updates into search results: Those results come from a particular slice of Web users.

Here’s Pew’s breakdown of that slice, by gender, race and other demographic markers:

Pew says the average age of a Twitter user is 31 (MySpace, 26; Facebook, 33; LinkedIn, 39). And it has some other stats that are useful–and, if you use the service, evident.

For instance, Twitter and mobile are a peanut butter/chocolate combination–25 percent of Internet users with wireless access use the service, compared with eight percent of those who are tethered. And, not surprisingly, gadget junkies are Twitter junkies too: 39 percent of Web users with four or more Internet devices use the service, compared to 10 percent with one device.

The full report is embedded below:

PIP-Twitter-Fall-2009 –

Apple Products Popular Among Teens With Wealthy Parents

John Paczkowski — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 11:00:31 +0000

If the teen demographic is a critical indicator of a company’s long-term growth prospects in the consumer electronics and online music markets, Apple has nothing to worry about. Because according to the results of Piper Jaffray’s 18th biannual Teen Survey, Apple devices continue to do well with American teenagers. (See table below; click to enlarge.)

Consider these metrics:

Of the teens Piper Jaffray surveyed,

15 percent own iPhones (up from eight percent six months ago)
22 percent plan to buy an iPhone in the next six months
87 percent own iPods (up from 86 percent six months ago)
93 percent of the 40 percent who legally purchase music online use iTunes

Music to Apple’s (AAPL) ears, right? “Apple’s dominance in the CE and online music markets is going seemingly unchecked, capped by market saturation for iPod and iTunes usage,” Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster writes in his analysis.

“Also, interest in the iPhone remains high…We believe the $99 iPhone 3G has been a meaningful part of share gains in the last six months. Previously, teens were indicating that the plan pricing and handset pricing were too high for them (and their parents) to buy iPhones. The lower pricing appears to have been a catalyst for share gains. Also, the popularity of the App Store and the quality of games available for the iPhone have likely led to the gains among the teen demographic in recent months.”

Munster’s conclusion: “Apple is taking its leading position in music and mobile markets.”

Another Down Quarter for Disney, but Cable's OK

Peter Kafka — Tue, 05 May 2009 20:14:46 +0000

A bad quarter for Disney, but it could have been worse–at least Wall Street was expecting it.

After factoring out one-time charges and write-offs, Bob Iger and company earned 43 cents a share on revenue of $8.1 billion. Wall Street had been looking for 40 cents and $8.15 billion, respectively.

Iger: “We had a difficult second quarter due to the weak economy and other factors.”

The bright spot for the entertainment conglomerate is the same one you see at every media giant these days: Disney’s cable business. Revenue at ESPN and the Disney Channel was up four percent and operating income was up five percent. That’s because those powerhouse channels have locked in payments from cable operators that show up regardless of the economy’s state.

And that’s why you won’t see (much) programming from those channels on Hulu–there’s no way Iger is going to rile up the cable operators who pay for that programming by running it for free online.

Disney’s interactive group, which includes videogames and sites like Club Penguin, but not revenue from ABC.com and sales from Apple’s (AAPL) iTunes store, saw revenue decline 17 percent, and operating income drop two percent.

Here’s the breakdown by segment (click to enlarge):

Write-down watch: Disney took $203 million in “impairment charges”–accountant-speak for “the stuff we bought back then isn’t worth much now.” That includes “$108 million related to radio FCC licenses and $46 million related to an investment in an Indian media company.”

This follows on the heels of a lousy February quarter in which the company didn’t hit expectations.

Disney (DIS) is the first of several big media companies to report this week. News Corp. (NWS) weighs in tomorrow, followed by CBS (CBS) on Thursday.

The Disney earnings call is starting now. I’ll listen in and update as warranted.

Disney CFO Tom Staggs on ad market, economy: “While we believe the pace of decline has generally stabilized, we believe ad buyers and consumers remain cautious.”

During Q&A, Iger has a long monologue about online philosophy, Hulu, etc., but my Webcast cut him off before he was finished. Don’t know whether to blame Disney or Time Warner Cable (TWC) for that one….

In any event, here’s my paraphrase of what I could get down, with a smattering of quotes:

“We found that as we move product to the Web…at least [with regard to] piracy that we’re aware of, there’s been a stabilization….We feel that if we don’t put it online…it will be demanded by consumers, and they’ll find ways.”

Research on cannibalization and piracy in general is inconclusive and some research conflicts with other research we’ve seen. “Some of this is instinct, by the way. It’s not all based on research.”

We feel media consumption is moving to the Web and that media consumption may be expanding. We think we’re better being online than not being online. We realize that Web monetization doesn’t exist yet, at least not at TV-like levels, but we believe that eventually it will.

A lot of the consumption that we’re seeing is incremental because it’s a different demographic. The average age of consumers watching ABC.com and itunes is younger than the average age of those watching network TV. The Hulu demographic is generally younger than prime-time network demographics. So we don’t believe it’s cannibalization.

How Many iPhones Could Wal-Mart Sell? Well, That's Obvious, Isn't It?

John Paczkowski — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 21:01:20 +0000

Though Wal-Mart has made no official announcement regarding the reportedly imminent arrival of Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone on its shelves, it would seem that the big-box retailer will begin peddling the device before the year is out. If that’s the case, how many iPhones is Wal-Mart capable of selling?

The short, and obvious, answer to that question is “a hell of a lot.” In a note to clients today, Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi argues that Wal-Mart (WMT) can sell between 800,000 and 1.3 million iPhones in 2009, though the retailer’s low price mantra may appear inconsistent with the iPhone’s market positioning. And that would seem to be a reasonable estimate. After all, Wal-Mart has some 2,500 retail outlets in the states, through which 100 million customers stream each week.

“The addition of Wal-Mart will roughly double the iPhone’s distribution in the US to nearly 6,000 outlets,” Sacconaghi writes. “We believe iPhone sales will benefit from the added distribution, though not proportionately; in our view, price (for both the device and service plan) is still the biggest hurdle to mass adoption…. With the iPhone already available at 3,000 Apple, AT&T (T), and Best Buy (BBY) stores, Wal-Mart likely does little to expand the device’s geographic reach. However, we believe Wal-Mart will have a greater impact on the iPhone’s demographic reach in terms of raising awareness and availability among lower-end consumers who are less likely to shop at the Apple Stores or BestBuy.”

One last point worth noting here, Sacconaghi puts little faith in rumors that Wal-Mart will offer a $99 4GB iPhone. “Could there be a cheaper iPhone at Wal-Mart,” he writes. “We think it unlikely, at least initially, but the idea is not completely unfounded. In our view, a $99 price point for the iPhone seems too low, but some modest discount is not implausible.”

How Many iPhones Could Wal-Mart Sell? Well, That's Obvious, Isn't It?

John Paczkowski — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 21:01:20 +0000

Bobbing for Bebo

John Paczkowski — Thu, 13 Mar 2008 19:00:58 +0000

[ See post to watch video ]

AOL to Acquire Last Chance at Relevance for $850 Million

John Paczkowski — Thu, 13 Mar 2008 13:01:31 +0000

Would something added to AOL, or AOL added to something else, make it stronger and more valuable? We can’t rule it out and we wouldn’t. It’s our obligation to make sure AOL gets into whatever configuration that makes it the strongest and most valuable.”

–Time Warner CEO Jeff Bewkes

Google (GOOG) won’t be acquiring Bebo any time soon. Unless it’s willing to buy Time Warner’s (TWX) AOL first. This morning AOL announced plans to acquire the social-networking site. Price tag: $850 million–cash.

It’s a sizable and unexpected deal for AOL (talk about unlikely buyers …), which has itself been rumored to be an acquisition target. Bebo, which claims a global membership of about 40 million users, will expand AOL’s world-wide reach to some 80 million unique users–many of them in the 13-to-24 demographic. And if AOL is lucky, it will jump-start its sluggish advertising business.

“This is a tremendous acquisition and one I think is game-changing for AOL–it puts us squarely as a leader in social media,” AOL chairman and CEO Randy Falco said during a press conference this morning. “Bebo will be the cornerstone of our strategy to transform the online experience for advertisers, media companies and consumers. Bebo is the best social media asset out there. It’s a true pioneer in the space, has the most engaged audience on the Web and has seen tremendous growth since its founding less than three years ago. When you combine Bebo’s worldwide users with those who use AIM and ICQ, we reach around 80 million. … We will be a social media powerhouse.”

What does this mean for the Microsoft (MSFT)/Yahoo (YHOO)/AOL love triangle?

Ask: The Little Engine That Can't

John Paczkowski — Wed, 05 Mar 2008 19:00:04 +0000

[ See post to watch video ]

Ask: The Little Engine That Can't

John Paczkowski — Wed, 05 Mar 2008 19:00:04 +0000

[ See post to watch video ]

The Algorithm Has a Thing for Housewives

John Paczkowski — Wed, 05 Mar 2008 16:22:44 +0000

Looks like that big shake-up at Ask was so violent it muddled the brains of the company’s executive leadership.

This morning the company announced plans to retool itself as a search engine for housewives. Seems Ask.com believes its core demographic is married women living in the American South and Midwest looking for information about health, hobbies, family matters, children’s homework, recipes and entertainment–i.e., married women who already use Google.

“If we can do a better job of understanding who these customers are and answering their questions, we will grow,” newly installed CEO Jim Safka told Reuters. “What this means is everything we do will be put through this strategic filter.”

If You Like the Web so Much, Why Don't You Just Marry It?

John Paczkowski — Thu, 20 Sep 2007 18:00:59 +0000

[ See post to watch video ]

If You Like the Web so Much, Why Don't You Just Marry It?

John Paczkowski — Thu, 20 Sep 2007 18:00:59 +0000

[ See post to watch video ]

Hello, My Name Is John and I'm a 'Digitivity Denizen'

John Paczkowski — Thu, 20 Sep 2007 07:01:23 +0000

Internet addiction disorder may not be a classifiable mental disorder, but that doesn’t mean it’s not a marketing demographic, right? According to an online survey conducted by advertising agency JWT, many U.S. adults feel they can’t make it a week without Internet access, with one in three choosing online activities over sex and time with friends.

“It is taking away from offline activities, among them having sex, socializing face-to-face, watching TV and reading newspapers and magazines. It cuts into that share,” said Ann Mack, director of trend-spotting at JWT. “I don’t suppose their partners are too pleased about it.”

Unless of course, their partners fall into the same marketing demographic for which JWT has concocted Internet addiction disorder may not be a classifiable mental disorder, but that doesn’t mean it’s not a marketing demographic, right? According to an online survey conducted by advertising agency JWT, many U.S. adults feel they can’t make it a week without Internet access, with one in three choosing online activities over sex and time with friends.

Unless of course, their partners fall into the same marketing demographic for which JWT has concocted