But at least as important are the company’s subscriber numbers and guidance, which should give us a much better sense of whether consumers have forgiven/forgotten its missteps of 2011. Netflix has already warned investors that it would lose money through much of 2012, largely because of its international expansion plans.

Q4 Domestic streaming: 22 million subs
Q4 Domestic DVD: 11.17
Q4 International: 1.86 million

Outlook: The company had already warned that it may not turn a profit in 2012, and it is now being more explicit about that, citing expansion costs and diminishing DVD revenue: “We expect modest quarterly losses, as well as losses for the calendar year.

Netflix ended the year with 24.4 million U.S. subscribers. That’s up 25 percent from the previous year, and — crucially — up from the previous quarter’s total of 23.79 million subs. That doesn’t mean its customer base has completely forgiven the company, but at the very least it means it is growing again.

Investors are pleased, and are pushing the stock up 10 percent in after-hours trading.

This is a case where the cheat sheet that Citigroup’s Mark Mahaney provides is particularly useful (click to enlarge).

Here’s a very interesting note on competition from Amazon: Netflix agrees with a New York Post report this morning which says Amazon will offer a standalone video service: “We expect Amazon to continue to offer their video service as a free extra with Prime domestically but also to brand their video subscription offering as a standalone service at a price less than ours.”

Hope to hear more about that from CEO Reed Hastings during the company’s conference call, which starts at 6 pm ET.

Just as the annual Consumer Electronics Show kicks off this week, according to a report from the NPD Group: Consumer electronics sales during this past holiday period dropped six percent from last year.

That should be some not-so-welcome news for the vendors at the Las Vegas gadget confab, which is seeking to show off new wares to excite said consumers.

Those offerings had better step it up, from a look at the NPD Weekly Tracking Service, which noted that the decline was coming off another decline from a year ago.

While 2011′s drop was not as bad as 2010′s, it’s not the right direction, although the tally did not include some of the more explosive device categories being prominently featured at CES, such as tablets.

Said NPD: “Total consumer technology sales (excluding cell phones, tablets, e-readers, and video games) fell 5.9 percent to around $9.5 billion for the 5 weeks ending December 24, a slight improvement over the 6.2 percent decline in 2010.”

Sales of personal computers and televisions fell 4 percent, with flat unit volumes.

“2010 was the first year in quite awhile where the real drags on the core CE marketplace were not TVs and PCs,” said Stephen Baker, VP of industry analysis at NPD, in a press release. “Revenue for those two segments outperformed while the rest of the market dropped by more than 7 percent. The accelerated rate of decline in older technology categories such as DVD, GPS and MP3 players put a ceiling on how well the industry could perform during the holiday.”

Consumers did snap up flat-panel TVs, with screen sizes of 50 inches and higher rising by 32 percent in unit sales.

And the rocky 3-D TV business also grew by more than 100 percent, with TVs with “3D capability accounting for more than one in every five dollars spent on TVs during the holiday.”

Also up: Home theater systems (10 percent) and stand-alone streaming devices (65 percent).

But those increases did not stem the overall negative tide.

For other sectors, here’s the damage to holiday revenue in percentage change from 2011 dollars spent:

Blu-ray players: Down 17 percent.

Camcorders: Down 42.5 percent.

Digital picture frames: Down 37.5 percent.

GPS: Down 32.6 percent.

HDD: Down 25.1 percent.

Mice and keyboards: Down 7.1 percent.

MP3 players: Down 20.5 percent.

Multifunction printers: Down 9.9 percent.

Point-and-shoot cameras: Down 20.8 percent.

MORE CES NEWS:

• Complete coverage
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Which means we’re in for an interesting game of chicken between Time Warner’s movie studio and the two rental services. And the result will be meaningful for Netflix, too.

Here’s where things stand: Warner Bros wants to double the “window” that keeps new DVDs away from rental services from 28 days to 56 days, a strategy that’s supposed to encourage would-be renters to buy DVDs instead. Netflix intends on going along with the plan and will be able to buy discs directly from the studio at wholesale rates.

Warner plans on announcing the new terms next week at the Consumer Electronics Show. But though I reported yesterday that Dish Network’s Blockbuster and Coinstar’s Redbox had signed on, the two companies — directly and indirectly —  say that’s not the case. Earlier today a Coinstar rep told me the company won’t agree to a longer window, and a person familiar with Blockbuster’s thinking now says the same thing.

If neither side backs down, then Blockbuster and Redbox would have a marketing advantage over Netflix, since the companies could boast about getting new movies before their rival.

But that assumes they can get their hands on the movies. That will be costly, and perhaps quite difficult.

In the past, Redbox has bought movies directly from retailers (Netflix also used to do the same thing in the service’s early days. But chains like Wal-Mart and Target have instituted buying caps on their discs  that are supposed to thwart that strategy. (Thanks, Janko Roettgers.)

Grab your popcorn!

A new deal between Time Warner’s movie studio and Netflix, Redbox and Blockbuster will double the “window” for new releases. That means the services will now have to wait 56 days after the discs first go on sale to offer them to their customers, instead of 28 days. [UPDATE: Redbox parent Coinstar now says they haven't agreed to a new deal; see below]

The move is part of Hollywood’s ongoing campaign to bolster flagging DVD sales, and sources tell me the new deal is supposed to be announced at next week’s Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. Warner Brothers executives have already talked publicly about extending the current window.

This is the second time that Warner has been able to get the rental services to wait before distributing its movies.

In 2010, it struck deals with Netflix, and later Coinstar’s Redbox, to wait 28 days before renting its new discs. Coinstar and Netflix later landed similar pacts with most of the other big studios. (Coinstar did up end up in legal battles with Universal Studios and 20th Century Fox, which like this Web site is owned by News Corp.)

Two years ago, Netflix was able to argue that by delaying access to DVDs, it was able to get its hands on more streaming content, and lower prices for the discs it did buy. This time around, though, Warner won’t be granting any additional digital rights to the studios. It will simply be offering them the ability to buy discs in bulk, at a significant discount to retail pricing, like they already do.

Earlier today, news broke that HBO, another Time Warner unit, would stop selling its DVDs to Netflix altogether, but sources tell me the two moves aren’t directly related. Next week’s planned announcement is supposed to be tied to Warner Brothers’ continuing push for Ultraviolet, an industry consortium that’s supposed to allow home video buyers to watch their purchases on multiple machines, in multiple formats.

Reps for Time Warner, Coinstar, Netflix and Blockbuster parent company Dish Network declined to comment.

UPDATE: Coinstar is now commenting, via email. “The current agreement Coinstar has with Warner Bros. is to receive movie titles 28 days after their release. No revised agreements are in place.” The company’s current deal with Warner Bros. expires at the end of January; PR chief Marci Maule referred me to comments CEO Paul Davis made last fall about pursuing “workarounds” if studios try to extend their windows.

Today’s underscore opportunity: A press release announcing that Netflix customers streamed “more than 2 billion hours” of video during the last three months of 2011. CEO Reed Hastings telegraphed this one in December, when he told an investor conference that the company was set to stream “well over” a billion hours for the quarter.

But beyond a boilerplate reference to “more than 20 million streaming members,” Netflix isn’t saying how many customers were watching that video. And it’s not providing any other meaningful metrics until it announces Q4 earnings in about a month. So no need to spend any more time on this one.

Streaming is the future. We’re focused on it. DVD will do whatever it’s going to do. We’re not — we’re going to try to not hurt it, but we’re not putting a lot of time and energy into doing anything particular around it and then we’re focused on, how do we take advantage of this incredible global streaming opportunity.

That was Netflix CEO Reed Hastings, at the UBS media conference earlier this month, reiterating the point that Netflix has been making over and over again for some time: They want out of the DVD business, even though it is generating more than $1 billion a year for them.

Hastings and his team are convinced that even though consumers say that discs are important to them, their usage data shows that few people … use them. “Old fogey discs,” Hastings calls them.

Netflix tried very hard to accelerate the decline of DVDs with the Qwikster fiasco. Since then, Netflix has been careful to tell its subscribers who are still paying for DVDs that it is happy to have them around.

New subscribers are a different story, though. Netflix exclusively pushes its $8-a-month unlimited-streaming option, on its site and in its promotional materials. You have to work very hard to discover that the company still rents DVDs, and that’s by design.

Same deal for former subscribers that Netflix is trying to woo back: Even if you used to get both DVDs and streaming videos from Netflix, the company will only tell you about its streaming plan in its “come back!” emails. (See the screenshot of an email my colleague Tricia Duryee, who quit her hybrid plan this fall, got recently, at the bottom of this post.)

But the message is most clear for people who want to give someone a Netflix subscription as a present: The company no longer allows you to gift a subscription that includes a DVD plan, period.

Go ahead and see for yourself — there’s no way to give Reed Hastings and company an extra $8 a month for a service they’re still providing to some 11 million subscribers.

The one tiny workaround that the company offers (if you look very, very hard — or do what I did, and call up Netflix PR and ask) is the ability to let current subscribers extend their current deal. So, for instance, if you’re currently getting the equivalent of a $16-a-month hybrid disc-and-streaming option, and someone gives you a year-long $8-a-month streaming gift, you can convert that into a six-month hybrid plan.

But, boy, that’s complicated. Easier to just give someone a year of streaming, and then send them a check so they can add the DVD portion on their own. Which is what we just did this morning, here at the AllThingsD Brooklyn outpost.

So to repeat: If you work very, very hard, Netflix will let you give it money, and will let you rent DVDs in return. But it would really prefer that you didn’t.

They’re less happy than they used to be. But they don’t seem to be going anywhere.

That’s the cautiously optimistic conclusion of a new survey Citigroup commissioned over the past few months. It finds existing subscribers still fairly pleased with the service Reed Hastings is offering: 57 percent say they’re either “extremely satisfied” or “very satisfied.” But Hastings’ good will has certainly eroded a bit: In May, a similar survey found 50 percent of his customers in the “extremely satisfied” category. That number is now down to 18 percent.

As Citi analyst Mark Mahaney points out, the survey is a bit skewed, since Netflix subscribers who were most disappointed with the service’s changes — a price hike, an ill-fated attempt to spin off its DVD business into a separate unit, and the loss of programming deal that gives the company access to Sony and Disney movies — have already bailed.

But a different survey question suggests one reason customers are sticking around with Netflix: They don’t see many other options.

While Amazon has been building up its catalog of streaming video, only 9 percent of Netflix customers said they’ve watched movies or TV shows there. And while 15 percent said they’ve used Hulu, that number is down from 19 percent in May. Apple’s iTunes comes in at 8 percent. (Perhaps the reason only 27 percent of Netflix subscribers say they use Netflix is because they’re distinguishing between apps and the site. But that seems like a fairly precise distinction for a large number of people to make, so who knows.)

The very big picture is that Mahaney still assumes Netflix will keep growing. He figures its DVD-only subscribers will drop by 800,000, to 9.9 million, over the next year. But he thinks streaming subscribers will increase 9.9 million, to 30.9 million, and that the company will add a few million more as it expands in Latin America and the U.K. He also thinks Netflix will become profitable again by the end of 2012.

But none of that is going to help anyone who bought Netflix stock earlier this year, when shares had climbed as high as $300. Mahaney has lowered his price target for NFLX, and is now hoping it climbs back to $80.

Sony tried doing this with “Bad Teacher” last month, and the results sound encouraging for the studio. It says its “windowing” experiment boosted digital unit sales by 60 percent, and overall digital revenue by 24 percent.

That is: Most people prefer to rent a movie than buy it outright. But when offered the chance to pay for a download or wait a couple weeks to rent the movie, some folks paid up.

Digital sales of “Bad Teacher” make up a small percentage of the movie’s overall digital revenue (Sony won’t release actual sales numbers), but there’s a lot more profit in each transaction for the studio. Rentals via iTunes run from $3.99 to $4.99 for the Cameron Diaz vehicle, but sales run from $14.99 to $19.99 a pop.

More good news for Sony: It says demand for digital rentals didn’t seem to drop once they became available two weeks after digital sales started. And physical sales — still the most important source of income for the studio — don’t seem to have suffered, either.

That last point is crucial for Sony’s relationships with the retailers it counts on to move old-fashioned discs while stepping into digital at the same time. Retailers like Wal-Mart and Best Buy are selling Sony’s movies via digital outlets, like Wal-Mart’s Vudu, but they won’t do it at the expense of their brick-and-mortar business (yet.)

“The good news that encourages us is that the physical retailers, those are the guys that are playing well and getting good results out of this,” says John Calkins, who heads up digital for Sony’s home video unit. Calkins figures that the promotion for the early digital sales ended up working as marketing for all of the movie’s sales, and thinks that will work with other films, too.

Calkins just tried the experiment again, with “30 Minutes Or Less,” and says that comedy saw similar results. Calkins says he’ll try it one more time in 2011, with a movie he won’t disclose.

You’ll forgive both groups if they’re a tad skeptical.

But if you feel like extending Reed Hastings the benefit of the doubt once more, then pay attention to the shareholder letter he published yesterday — in particular, the part where he explains the company’s content strategy.

In the end, if Hastings does deliver, this is the plan that will let him do it. And it’s a change from the company’s original content strategy, which means some folks haven’t figured it out yet.

Short version: When Netflix was a DVD company, it could afford to offer just about every movie or TV show every made. Now that it’s a streaming video company, it has to pick and choose.

So Hastings is trying to build an $8-a-month version of HBO — a network you pay for in addition to your regular TV package, not one that replaces it. And to make that work, he doesn’t have to have everything — but he has to have stuff you can’t get anywhere else.

Here’s an extended excerpt from his letter:

In television… the networks (ABC, FX, etc.) have long relied upon exclusive content to differentiate among themselves. As video moves online, so too has this practice of exclusive content. HBO has an exclusive license to recent Universal movies that includes its online HBO GO, for example. Netflix has signed exclusive licenses for DreamWorks Animation, for Relativity, and others. In episodic television, exclusives are also the norm. Netflix doesn’t license “Deadwood” from HBO because they see strategic value in keeping it exclusive. Netflix licenses “Mad Men” and “House of Cards” exclusively for much the same reason.

…We don’t have to “beat” Starz or other networks to succeed…We won’t have every movie or TV series; but we do provide enough value that consumers also want to subscribe to Netflix.

Any given consumer will have only one of DirecTV or Comcast, say, for their video service. That is classic either‐or competition. But with premium television networks like Netflix, the more good experiences there are, the more consumers are willing to spend to have multiple channels from which to get enjoyment.

Simple, right? The complicated part is the execution, of course. Hastings and his team have to figure out what their customers, and future customers, will value, and how much Hastings and his team can afford to pay for it.

And if they make the wrong calls — if it turns out that “House of Cards” isn’t interesting to anyone besides Kevin Spacey, or if the DreamWorks movies don’t satisfy people who used to watch the Pixar movies Netflix used to have — then Netflix really is toast.

But Hastings still has some 25 million subscribers, which means he still has plenty of money to keep betting — during his earnings call yesterday, he said the company’s content bill had shot up to $3.3 billion, up from $1.2 billion just a year ago. That’s not enough to pay for an unlimited supply of videos. But it should be enough to build a decent pay TV channel.

But now we’ll get Reed Hastings’s own report card, when Netflix announces its quarterly earnings this afternoon.

As Citigroup’s Mark Mahaney notes, the key numbers to look for aren’t the Q3 metrics — the company has already preannounced that its subscriber numbers are going to be lower than it initially thought — but its guidance for the rest of the year.

That’s where we’ll be able to see the impact of its many stumbles — the price hike, the broken Starz deal, Qwikster’s New Coke moment — or at least what Netflix thinks the impact will be. If Netflix subscribers are really bailing out — and not just threatening to do so on Hastings’s Facebook page — you should be able to see that reflected in its expectations for the next three months.

Remember that shortly after Netflix dropped its first bomb this summer — a 60 percent price hike for many of its customers — management predicted that it would suffer a subscriber blip in Q3, but would recover by Q4. Let’s see if they’ve hung on to that confidence.

Here are Mahaney’s best guesses for Netflix’s Q3 results and Q4 guidance, along with Wall Street’s estimates (click image to enlarge). I’ll be covering the results live at 4 pm ET.

We need to take a few deep breaths and not move quite as quickly. But we also don’t want to overcorrect and start moving stodgily.

— Netflix CEO Reed Hastings, reflecting on a very rough couple months, to the New York Times Magazine’s Andrew Goldman. “It’s causing, as you would expect, an internal reflectiveness.”