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	<title>AllThingsD &#187; electric cars</title>
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		<title>2011: Apps Get Spendy, Carriers Get Grabby, Google Loses Its Way</title>
		<link>http://allthingsd.com/20101209/2011-apps-get-spendy-carriers-get-grabby/</link>
		<comments>http://allthingsd.com/20101209/2011-apps-get-spendy-carriers-get-grabby/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 10 Dec 2010 02:42:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Arik Hesseldahl</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Enterprise]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mobile]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[John Shirley]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Mark Anderson]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://newenterprise.allthingsd.com/?p=392</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Plus, e-books, electric cars and Internet TV cross over into the mainstream. Analyst Mark Anderson makes his annual predictions for the tech economy in 2011.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://newenterprise.allthingsd.com/files/2010/12/mark-anderson-150x150.jpg" alt="" title="mark-anderson" width="150" height="150" class="alignright size-thumbnail wp-image-405" />Every year for the last five years I&#8217;ve made it a habit to attend an annual dinner at New York&#8217;s Waldorf Astoria hotel hosted by <a href="http://www.futureinreview.com/participants.php?galleryid=3479">Mark Anderson</a>, the CEO of Strategic News Service. Stratnews is a newsletter that circulates to senior executives of several tech companies, and Anderson also runs a conference called FIRE (Future In Review), where Oracle co-President Mark Hurd <a href="http://www.techflash.com/seattle/2010/11/video-oracles-mark-hurd-in-seattle.html">appeared last month</a>. At this dinner, Anderson gives a speech during which he makes 10 predictions concerning the tech economy for the coming year, and it&#8217;s always interesting.</p>
<p>This year I&#8217;m not attending because I had <a href="http://allthingsd.com/d/dive-into-mobile/?mod=ATD_home_dive">other things to do</a>, but I managed to catch up with Anderson by phone this morning to get a quick rundown of his predictions. Here they are, as summarized by me with a few quotes from my chat with Mark:</p>
<p><strong>1.</strong> <strong>The smartphone market breaks in two. </strong>Secure for the enterprise vs. consumer-oriented. As companies become increasingly concerned about protecting their intellectual property from being exposed or stolen in network-based attacks, corporations will become a lot more careful about allowing employees to use smartphones on their networks. &#8220;Research In Motion will get a &#8216;yes&#8217; nod right away, Apple&#8217;s iPhone will get a tentative &#8216;yes&#8217; and Microsoft will be next in line after that if they&#8217;re willing to see the opportunity that&#8217;s in front of them, with a special secure version of Windows Mobile 7. Everything else, Android in particular, will be in the other seat.&#8221;</p>
<p><strong>2.</strong> <strong>Wireless carriers make a grab for power.</strong> Increasingly marginalized as the owners of so-called dumb pipes, carriers will use Google&#8217;s Android to make a grab for power they&#8217;ve been generally losing lately on the handset. &#8220;Android gives carriers power while Apple&#8217;s iOS takes it away. The long-term trend toward the carriers ultimately losing their power will not change, but in 2011 they&#8217;ll see Android as a ticket to regaining some of the power they&#8217;ve lost on the handset.&#8221;</p>
<p><strong>3.</strong> <strong>ITunes seeds its own competition. </strong>As much as it appears to be the monolithic player in digital media, iTunes will seem less so this year. &#8220;I think Netflix is going to be an amazing story in 2011. It may have out Hulu-ed Hulu in terms of video.&#8221; However, iTunes&#8217; control of the music market will remain unchanged.</p>
<p><strong>4.</strong> <strong>The free-app ecosphere hits a money wall.</strong> All those inexpensive and free applications on the iPhone and Android phones will start to cost a lot more than they did before. &#8220;If it&#8217;s an app that helps you rent a car from Hertz or fly Southwest Air it will still be free. Real smartphone applications will start to cost money and the prices will escalate. They&#8217;ll go from costing zero to $3 to between $10 and $30.&#8221;</p>
<p><strong>5.</strong> <strong>Google loses its way.</strong> Google will fail to answer the fundamental question, &#8220;What business am I in?&#8221; and will be perceived as confused and lacking a cohesive strategy. &#8220;Google is all over the place with its driverless cars and Google phones. There&#8217;s lots of great ideas bubbling up through the employee ranks getting nods from top management, but I don&#8217;t see any strategy there. It&#8217;s a fun place to work, sort of like a Xerox PARC for grown-ups. And there&#8217;s nothing wrong with that unless you&#8217;re a shareholder. There&#8217;s never been a company with so much money and so random a strategy as Google.&#8221;</p>
<p><strong>6. The year of the electric car, part 2.</strong> Electric cars start showing up in real production numbers, and charging stations for cars start popping up like weeds. &#8220;The numbers begin to shoot up in 2011 and they never stop.&#8221;</p>
<p><strong>7. Carry-alongs&#8211;netbooks, tablets and the like&#8211;remain the fastest-growing segment of computers.</strong> Expect to see a lot more 9-inch and 7-inch devices this year.</p>
<p><strong>8. Data Matters.</strong> Oracle takes off and becomes a global platform for databases. &#8220;Larry Ellison and Mark Hurd working together remind me of Bill Gates and <a href="http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/bod/jshirley/default.aspx">John Shirley</a>. One is the brilliant visionary and strategist, and the other is the genius operations guy. SAP will suffer as a result, and in fact already is. It will get worse.&#8221;<br />
<strong><br />
9. Net TV is in, cable is out.</strong>  Internet-based TV options will penetrate about 40 percent of U.S. households, which will trigger a revolution in mass media. Cable and satellite providers will suffer. <a href="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/tag/cord-cutting/">Cable-cutting</a> is real and will be seen not as the result of consumers cutting back in lean economic distress, but as making a permanent choice. &#8220;They won&#8217;t be back.&#8221; Netflix (see prediction No. 3) will make a breakout play to reach them.</p>
<p><strong>10. E-Books go mainstream</strong> Though their share of the book-publishing market will remain fractional, the growth of that fraction that is e-book sales will go ballistic. Expect revenues in the ballpark of $160 million per quarter and a compound annual growth rate of about 140 percent.  &#8220;E-reading will become as common as eating with a spoon.&#8221;</p>
<p>So how accurate is Anderson? Very, he argues, though what forecaster wouldn&#8217;t? You can judge for yourself. Here&#8217;s a story I did last year for Bloomberg Businessweek on his predictions for <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/dec2009/tc20091211_347388.htm">2010</a>, and another on his predictions for <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/dec2008/tc20081211_906153.htm">2009</a>.</p>
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		<title>Electric Cars: A Boon for Commercial Vehicle Trade?</title>
		<link>http://allthingsd.com/20101018/electric-cars-a-boon-for-commercial-vehicle-trade/</link>
		<comments>http://allthingsd.com/20101018/electric-cars-a-boon-for-commercial-vehicle-trade/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 18 Oct 2010 18:15:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Yoshio Takahashi</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[commercial vehicles]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Osamu Masuko]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Wall Street Journal]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yoshio Takahashi]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://voices.allthingsd.com/?p=31204</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It may take decades for electric cars to become an everyday sight in parking lots and garages. But Mitsubishi Motors Corp. president Osamu Masuko sees big potential demand in the market for commercial vehicles used by businesses, even though neither his company nor its biggest local rival Nissan Motor Co. has yet specifically targeted the sector.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It may take decades for electric cars to become an everyday sight in parking lots and garages. But Mitsubishi Motors Corp. president Osamu Masuko sees big potential demand in the market for commercial vehicles used by businesses, even though neither his company nor its biggest local rival Nissan Motor Co. has yet specifically targeted the sector.</p>
<p>Mitsubishi Motors, Japan’s sixth-largest car maker by volume, became the world’s first car maker to start mass producing electric vehicles last year when it launched the i-MiEV, a small passenger car designed for city driving. But speaking at a recent event, Mr. Masuko pointed out that most commercial vans and trucks run more or less fixed distances every day that are within the driving ranges of current electric cars on a single charge.</p>
<p><a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/japanrealtime/2010/10/18/electric-cars-a-boon-for-commercial-vehicle-trade/">Read the rest of this post on the original site</a></p>
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		<title>Big Sony Vs. Small Toshiba at Ceatec</title>
		<link>http://allthingsd.com/20101007/big-sony-vs-small-toshiba-at-ceatec/</link>
		<comments>http://allthingsd.com/20101007/big-sony-vs-small-toshiba-at-ceatec/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 Oct 2010 12:00:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Juro Osawa</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Media]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://voices.allthingsd.com/?p=30791</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Several themes are emerging at Japan’s largest annual electronics trade fair this week, including green technology, such as electric cars, and tablet devices, such as Sharp Corp.’s Galapagos and Samsung Electronics Co.’s Galaxy Tab.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Several themes are emerging at Japan’s largest annual electronics trade fair this week, including green technology, such as electric cars, and tablet devices, such as Sharp Corp.’s Galapagos and Samsung Electronics Co.’s Galaxy Tab.</p>
<p>And 3-D is among the main themes at the Combined Exhibition of Advanced Technologies, also known as Ceatec. If you are looking for a big-screen experience, Sony Corp.’s (SNE) section features a gigantic 21.7-meter-wide (roughly 71 feet) 3-D screen by combining liquid crystal display modules.</p>
<p>Every time Sony ran a demo clip using the entire screen for a few minutes, visitors stopped and picked up viewing glasses from the booth staff. When the demo clip wasn’t on, visitors could try out high-profile PlayStation titles such as Gran Turismo 5 in 3-D, using nearly half of the screen.</p>
<p><a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/japanrealtime/2010/10/07/big-sony-vs-small-toshiba-at-ceatec/">Read the rest of this post on the original site</a></p>
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		<title>Germany&#039;s SolarWorld Wants to Buy…a Car Company?</title>
		<link>http://allthingsd.com/20081119/germanys-solarworld-wants-to-buy%e2%80%a6a-car-company/</link>
		<comments>http://allthingsd.com/20081119/germanys-solarworld-wants-to-buy%e2%80%a6a-car-company/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 19 Nov 2008 20:34:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Eric Savitz</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://voices.allthingsd.com/?p=6147</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Have things gotten that bad in the solar industry? Something has prompted Germany's SolarWorld to state its intention of offering one billion Euros to acquire four production plants and one headquarters currently owned and operated by the Opel division of General Motors. The goal? To create Europe's first "green" car company and--presumably--sell enough electric and hybrid cars to offset the dismal margins of the company's core solar business. One would think there'd be other fish to fry.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>OK, so here is the weirdest story of the day. SolarWorld, one of the largest solar companies in Germany, today declared that they want to buy several sites in Germany that now belong to the Opel division of General Motors (GM). In short, they want to expand from solar modules into the auto business.</p>
<p>As noted in an AP story picked up by the Wall Street Journal, SolarWorld said it intends to offer one billion Euros, including 250 million in cash and 750 million in credit lines, for four German production facilities and Opel&#8217;s development center and headquarters in Ruesselsheim.</p>
<p>The goal: to create Europe&#8217;s first true &#8220;green&#8221; auto company, with a focus on building electric and hybrid cars.</p>
<p><a href="http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2008/11/19/germanys-solarworld-wants-to-buya-car-company/">Read the rest of this post</a></p>
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