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	<title>AllThingsD &#187; Ezra Gottheil</title>
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		<title>Loss Leader Not in Apple&#039;s Vocabulary</title>
		<link>http://allthingsd.com/20090306/loss-leader-not-in-apples-vocabulary/</link>
		<comments>http://allthingsd.com/20090306/loss-leader-not-in-apples-vocabulary/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Mar 2009 13:27:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>John Paczkowski</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AAPL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Apple]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ASP]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[average selling price]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[econalypse]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ezra Gottheil]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[PC]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[price point]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/?p=14319</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This year will see one of the worst slumps in the PC industry ever. But as grim as things may get, they will perhaps not be so bad for Apple. According to TBR analyst Ezra Gottheil, the company has so far avoided the “permanent and structural” collapse of overall average selling prices for PCs and the related decline in revenue.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/files/2009/03/apple-new-logo-lg1jpg-150x150.jpg" alt="apple-new-logo-lg1jpg" title="apple-new-logo-lg1jpg" width="150" height="150" class="alignright size-thumbnail wp-image-14320" />This year will see one of the <a href="http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/20090302/pc-sales-crashing-like-an-unpatched-windows-machine/">worst slumps in the PC industry ever</a>. But as grim as things may get, they will perhaps not be so bad for Apple. According to TBR analyst Ezra Gottheil, the company has so far <a href="http://apple20.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2009/03/05/apple-so-far-immune-to-pc-price-collapse/">avoided the &#8220;permanent and structural&#8221; collapse of overall average selling prices</a> for PCs and the related decline in revenue. In the fourth quarter of 2008, for example, there was a 13 percent drop in the average selling price for PCs and an 18 percent decline in PC revenue. Yet Apple&#8217;s ASP held relatively steady. “Apple’s a special case in that not only are its ASPs much higher than the others, but also they have been amazingly flat over the eight years of data that I have, while the others have showed a steady erosion,&#8221; Gottheil explained. &#8220;The differences have only gotten wider over the years.”</p>
<p>And that bodes well for Apple (AAPL). Because while its sales might be slowing along with the rest of the industry (though not nearly as badly; the company&#8217;s unit sales rose only nine percent in the December quarter, down from a 44 percent increase in the year prior), its price points and profit margins are holding nice and steady.<br />
<a href="http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/files/2009/03/pc_asp.jpg" rel="lightbox"><img src="http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/files/2009/03/pc_asp-267x300.jpg" alt="pc_asp" title="pc_asp" width="267" height="300" class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-14318" /></a></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Loss Leader Not in Apple's Vocabulary</title>
		<link>http://allthingsd.com/20090306/loss-leader-not-in-apples-vocabulary-2/</link>
		<comments>http://allthingsd.com/20090306/loss-leader-not-in-apples-vocabulary-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Mar 2009 13:27:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>John Paczkowski</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AAPL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Apple]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ASP]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[average selling price]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[econalypse]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ezra Gottheil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[hardware]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Paczkowski]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PC sales]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[price point]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/?p=14319</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This year will see one of the worst slumps in the PC industry ever. But as grim as things may get, they will perhaps not be so bad for Apple. According to TBR analyst Ezra Gottheil, the company has so far avoided the “permanent and structural” collapse of overall average selling prices for PCs and the related decline in revenue.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/files/2009/03/apple-new-logo-lg1jpg-150x150.jpg" alt="apple-new-logo-lg1jpg" title="apple-new-logo-lg1jpg" width="150" height="150" class="alignright size-thumbnail wp-image-14320" />This year will see one of the <a href="http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/20090302/pc-sales-crashing-like-an-unpatched-windows-machine/">worst slumps in the PC industry ever</a>. But as grim as things may get, they will perhaps not be so bad for Apple. According to TBR analyst Ezra Gottheil, the company has so far <a href="http://apple20.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2009/03/05/apple-so-far-immune-to-pc-price-collapse/">avoided the &#8220;permanent and structural&#8221; collapse of overall average selling prices</a> for PCs and the related decline in revenue. In the fourth quarter of 2008, for example, there was a 13 percent drop in the average selling price for PCs and an 18 percent decline in PC revenue. Yet Apple&#8217;s ASP held relatively steady. “Apple’s a special case in that not only are its ASPs much higher than the others, but also they have been amazingly flat over the eight years of data that I have, while the others have showed a steady erosion,&#8221; Gottheil explained. &#8220;The differences have only gotten wider over the years.”</p>
<p>And that bodes well for Apple (AAPL). Because while its sales might be slowing along with the rest of the industry (though not nearly as badly; the company&#8217;s unit sales rose only nine percent in the December quarter, down from a 44 percent increase in the year prior), its price points and profit margins are holding nice and steady.<br />
<a href="http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/files/2009/03/pc_asp.jpg" rel="lightbox"><img src="http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/files/2009/03/pc_asp-267x300.jpg" alt="pc_asp" title="pc_asp" width="267" height="300" class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-14318" /></a></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>AIEEEE!</title>
		<link>http://allthingsd.com/20081216/aieeee/</link>
		<comments>http://allthingsd.com/20081216/aieeee/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Dec 2008 19:00:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>John Paczkowski</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/?p=9766</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[ See post to watch video ]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><div class="video-wsj"><embed src="http://s.wsj.net/media/swf/microPlayer.swf" bgcolor="#FFFFFF" flashVars="videoGUID={4961004001}&playerid=4001&plyMediaEnabled=1&configURL=http://m.wsj.net/video-players/&autoStart=false" base="http://s.wsj.net/media/swf/" name="microflashPlayer" width="320" height="240" seamlesstabbing="false" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" swLiveConnect="true" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/shockwave/download/index.cgi?P1_Prod_Version=ShockwaveFlash"></embed><br />[ See post to watch video ]</div></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>An Apple Netbook at Macworld 2009?</title>
		<link>http://allthingsd.com/20081216/an-apple-netbook-at-macworld-2009/</link>
		<comments>http://allthingsd.com/20081216/an-apple-netbook-at-macworld-2009/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Dec 2008 15:47:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>John Paczkowski</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Media]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/?p=9717</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Perhaps Macworld Expo 2009 will have its "one more thing" after all. In a note to clients this morning, Ezra Gottheil of Technology Business Research speculates that Apple will indeed launch a new product category at Macworld in early January. A netbook.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>There are some customers which we chose not to serve. We don&#8217;t know how to make a $500 computer that&#8217;s not a piece of junk, and our DNA will not let us ship that. But we can continue to deliver greater and greater value to those customers that we choose to serve. And there&#8217;s a lot of them. We&#8217;ve seen great success by focusing on certain segments of the market and not trying to be everything to everybody. So I think you can expect us to stick with that winning strategy and continue to try to add more and more value to those products in those customer bases we choose to serve.&#8221;</p>
<p>&#8211; Apple CEO Steve Jobs, Oct. 2008
</p></blockquote>
<p><img src="http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/files/2008/12/applenetbookmock-up.jpg" alt="" title="applenetbookmock-up" width="200" height="198" class="alignright size-full wp-image-9724" />Perhaps Macworld Expo 2009 will have its &#8220;one more thing&#8221; after all.</p>
<p>In a note to clients this morning, Ezra Gottheil of Technology Business Research speculates that Apple (AAPL) will indeed launch a new product category at Macworld in early January. A netbook designed to leverage Apple&#8217;s design prowess and its online delivery system as well. &#8220;[The device] will provide Web access, email, media playing, and essential applications at a single low price,&#8221; Gottheil writes. &#8220;Computer beginners will be able to start using it quickly and easily. Users will have fewer questions, problems, conflicts and security breaches, as the device will be less intimidating than both PCs and Macs. As with the iPhone, iTunes and the App Store will offer an array of content, applications and games. As with the iPhone, the software can be rebuilt from the App Store. With an optional online backup service, the entire device can be restored&#8230;. Because all applications are delivered through the iTunes App Store, Apple will maintain sustained relationships with users, making it easier to upsell and cross-sell to existing customers. TBR believes Apple will make online services like MobileMe increasingly attractive to all customers, but purchasers of the new Apple device may find its simplicity especially appealing.&#8221;</p>
<p>Now, I know Gottheil&#8217;s the guy who said &#8220;Apple doesn’t need Jobs anymore&#8221;&#8211;blasphemy! But the scenario he lays out above makes quite a bit of sense, doesn&#8217;t it?</p>
<p>If such a device is indeed uncrated at Macworld, Gottheil expects it will arrive at market around midyear at prices beginning at $599&#8211;$99 more than the $500 computer Apple CEO Steve Jobs claims the company doesn&#8217;t know how to make&#8230;.</p>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Mr. Gottheil? Steve Jobs Called. He Said to Tell You Nobody Needs You Anymore, Either</title>
		<link>http://allthingsd.com/20081007/mr-gottheil-steve-jobs-called-he-said-to-tell-you-apple-doesnt-need-you-anymore-either/</link>
		<comments>http://allthingsd.com/20081007/mr-gottheil-steve-jobs-called-he-said-to-tell-you-apple-doesnt-need-you-anymore-either/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 07 Oct 2008 07:00:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>John Paczkowski</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Apple]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/?p=6315</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Jack Welch once called Apple CEO Steve Jobs “the most successful CEO today." Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates has described Jobs as “an inspirational leader,” the best he’s ever met. And Jobs is said to be worth more to his company than any other CEO in the world. If he were to leave Apple--willingly or otherwise--the company would suffer a $20 billion blow to its market capitalization, according to a 2007 survey by Barrons. Yet, Apple doesn’t need him--according to Technology Business Research Ezra Gottheil.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/files/2008/10/stevewtf1.jpg" alt="" title="stevewtf1" width="200" height="184" class="alignright size-medium wp-image-6316" />Jack Welch once called Apple CEO Steve Jobs <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/02/news/companies/elkind_jobs.fortune/index.htm">&#8220;the most successful CEO today.&#8221;</a> Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates has described Jobs as &#8220;an inspirational leader,&#8221; the best he&#8217;s ever met. And Jobs is said to be worth more to his company than any other CEO in the world. If he were to leave Apple (AAPL)&#8211;willingly or otherwise&#8211;the company would suffer a $20 billion blow to its market capitalization, according to a 2007 survey by Barrons.</p>
<p>Yet, Apple doesn&#8217;t need him&#8211;according to Ezra Gottheil of Technology Business Research, who says the iCEO could be replaced by COO Tim Cook and Jonathan Ive, Apple&#8217;s senior vice president for industrial design.</p>
<p>&#8220;Apple doesn&#8217;t need Jobs anymore,&#8221;<a href="http://www.pcworld.com/article/151912/"> Gottheil said</a>. &#8220;He&#8217;s established three sound businesses&#8211;Mac, iPod and the iPhone&#8211;and the company knows how to execute his fanatical devotion to design and usability. There&#8217;s a stable management team in place, and they know what they&#8217;re doing. Without Jobs, Apple would have to pay a lot more to get the world&#8217;s attention. But he&#8217;s got a company and a brand and an organization and a strategy in place. There&#8217;s no reason to think that those things can&#8217;t be carried forward without him.&#8221;</p>
<p>Perhaps not&#8211;Jobs wouldn&#8217;t permit things to unfold otherwise. But there&#8217;s no reason to think that they&#8217;ll ever be quite the same either.</p>
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