Tonight, Demand Media–in reaction to a new study showing that its flagship eHow site had now gotten much more negatively impacted by Google’s rejiggering of its search algorithm than previously–released a statement and blog post about the tempest.

In it, the Santa Monica, Calif.-based company reaffirmed its outlook for fiscal year 2011, noting, in part:

“Certain third parties that have published reports attempting to estimate the effect of recent search engine algorithm changes made by Google on traffic to the Company’s owned and operated websites have significantly overstated the negative impact of those changes on traffic to eHow.com, as compared to the Company’s directly measured internal data.”

The company, though, declined to give specific details about the impact of Google’s attempt to clean up its search results by tweaking its algorithms to cut out poorly made material from so-called “content farms.”

While others had apparently been initially impacted by Google’s first foray, such as Yahoo’s Associated Content unit, Demand had not been.

That is, until a recent Sistrix poll (see chart below), showing eHow has now been hurt badly by even more Google search changes, codenamed Panda.

While acknowledging a decline in search traffic on eHow from the Google changes, Demand said the Sistrix data was way off.

In a blog post, Larry Fitzgibbon, Demand’s EVP of Media and Operations, wrote, in part:

“However, recent third-party reports attempting to estimate the impact to our search driven traffic, including one projecting a 2/3rds decline in eHow.com traffic, are so significantly overstated that we decided to comment.”

When Google began making changes to its search formula, Demand CEO Richard Rosenblatt told MediaMemo’s Peter Kafka in an interview that its relationship with Google was all sunshine and roses.

When asked how its relationship with Google was, Rosenblatt said:

“This is why our partnership with Google makes sense. 1) We help them fill the gaps in their index, where they don’t have quality content. 2) We’re the largest supplier of all video to YouTube, over two billion views and 3) we’re a large AdSense partner. So our relationship is synergistic, and it’s a great partnership. And it’s a partnership that we’re excited to continue to expand.”

It will be interesting to see how he feels now.

Here are both Demand’s official press release and blog below:

Demand Media Reaffirms Outlook for Fiscal Year 2011

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Apr 18, 2011 (BUSINESS WIRE)

Demand Media, Inc. (NYSE: DMD), a leading content and social media company, announced today that it is reaffirming its financial outlook for fiscal year 2011 that it previously provided on February 22, 2011.

Certain third parties that have published reports attempting to estimate the effect of recent search engine algorithm changes made by Google on traffic to the Company’s owned and operated websites have significantly overstated the negative impact of those changes on traffic to eHow.com, as compared to the Company’s directly measured internal data. Recent search engine algorithm changes have negatively impacted search driven traffic to some of our websites, including eHow.com, resulting in moderately lower year-to-date page view growth for the Company’s owned and operated Content & Media properties compared to page view growth rates before the algorithm changes. Nevertheless, the Company currently expects that its year-over-year page view growth across its owned and operated Content & Media properties in the second quarter of 2011 will be comparable to, or greater than, the year-over-year page view growth achieved in the second quarter of 2010.

As previously announced, the Company will report its first quarter 2011 financial results on May 5, 2011. The Company will host a conference call to discuss the results at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time (2:00 p.m. Pacific Time). A live webcast of the conference call will also be available and can be accessed within the investor relations section of Demand Media’s corporate website at ir.demandmedia.com.

Another Statement About Search Engine Algorithm Changes

Posted by larry fitzgibbon at 4/17/2011 10:05 PM PDT

It’s hard to imagine a company more focused on the connection between consumers and content than Demand Media. That point of connection gives us the opportunity to inform, engage and serve the consumer. And it’s where trusted relationships start. So, how our content reaches the consumer–whether it’s through direct visits, social media referrals, apps or search–continues to be top of mind with everyone at the company. Consumers are connecting with more content than ever before as social media and mobile access have emerged to play huge roles that didn’t even exist just a few years ago. And search engines, of course, continue to play an integral part in content discovery and have been hard at work improving their products to create the best consumer experiences possible.

As I discussed on my last blog post, Google recently made significant search algorithm changes in an update dubbed Panda that has rolled out in various capacities from late February thru mid-April. With respect to Panda’s mid-April update, some of our properties saw Google search referrals move up while other properties, including our largest property eHow.com, saw these referrals go down.

As I said in my prior post, we generally do not comment or speculate on changes by major search engines, as these changes can happen nearly daily. However, recent third-party reports attempting to estimate the impact to our search driven traffic, including one projecting a 2/3rds decline in eHow.com traffic, are so significantly overstated that we decided to comment. As discussed in our press release issued today, we currently expect that in Q2 2011 our owned and operated Content & Media properties will generate year-over-year page view growth comparable to or greater than the year-over-year page view growth reported for Q2 2010. We have also reaffirmed our calendar year 2011 financial guidance in this press release.

Demand Media has a myriad of impactful sites and many sources of traffic. We are encouraged that the investments we’ve been making in site experience and content quality are making an impact with our consumers. Organic growth in visits from non-search sources to eHow continue to grow rapidly and Cracked.com is now the most visited humor site on the Internet with the majority of its page views coming from direct visits. Improvements have been registered from eHow’s recent redesign and the introduction of new video series leading to significant growth in Facebook likes. Our brand advertisers have also reported encouraging results with their intent-targeted campaigns. Rest assured, just as we have been innovators in building one of the largest online audiences, we are applying that same rigor and intensity to delivering a quality experience for consumers and advertisers.

As a disruptive digital media and technology company, we have been operating in a fast moving environment since the company’s founding five years ago. While change is frequent, one thing is certain–Demand Media is steadfast in our commitment to produce great outcomes for our consumers, advertisers and community of creative professionals. We’re in the trenches listening, learning, adapting and innovating–and we are very excited about the opportunity in front of us. We look forward to providing details on all of these topics and more in our previously announced conference call at 5:00pm (Eastern) May 5th, 2011 to discuss first quarter 2011 financial results.

Larry Fitzgibbon is Demand Media’s EVP of Media and Operations, and manages the company’s rapidly growing network of consumer properties.

That’s an astonishing jump, and it speaks volumes about the growth, and usage, of Apple’s iTunes/iPhone/iPad/iPod ecosystem.

It’s harder to figure out what it means for Apple’s financials, but we can guess: Not nearly as much.

App downloads increased 233 percent in the last year. But revenue growth at the iTunes store, which distributes them, is much more modest.

In Apple’s last fiscal year, which ran up to Sept. 25, 2010, iTunes revenue grew roughly 23 percent. During Apple’s most recent quarter, iTunes revenue grew at the same rate.

Apple also sells music and videos, and now books via iTunes as well, but doesn’t provide any breakdown by category, so anything beyond those stats is guesswork. (And even getting to iTunes revenue numbers requires a small leap of faith*.)

But for what it’s worth, I’m assuming that revenue from apps is increasing at a faster clip than the numbers above suggest. Because digital music sales, which used to power iTunes sales, are slowing.

In any case, it shouldn’t be a huge shock to see that big app-download numbers don’t translate into big dollars for Apple, since the majority of app downloads are free.

Still, it’s a good reminder that Apple has always maintained it’s not trying to make money with the iTunes store–it’s a “bit over break-even,” CFO Peter Oppenheimer said last year.

iTunes’ real job is to give people more reasons to buy Apple’s hardware. And that’s working out very well indeed.

*iTunes revenue requires a bit of guesswork, because Apple doesn’t usually break out the store’s numbers, but lumps them into a “music related products and services” category, which includes accessories, etc. But the vast majority of that total comes from iTunes. And in the last quarter, Apple gave us something much closer to a real iTunes number: “revenue exceeding $1.1 billion.” FYI: That works out to about 77 percent of Apple’s “music-related products” number for that quarter.

Unaffiliated analysts, who often do a better job of predicting Apple’s performance than their professional counterparts, are taking an even more bullish view. Bullish Cross’s Andy Zaky–who called Apple’s Q4 EPS almost to the penny–for example, is looking for the company to post a $2 billion top-line beat. He sees Apple reporting $6.29 in earnings per share on approximately $26.3 billion in revenue. That’s quite a bit more than the $4.80 EPS on $23 billion that Apple’s guided for. Is it possible? We’ll find out this afternoon.

One interesting revelation is that both Hewlett-Packard and Acer, the top two vendors by volume in the Gartner survey, saw their shipments decline year-on-year in a period where the rest of the industry was seeing growth, albeit slower than had been previously expected.

Hewlett-Packard maintained its market lead, with a share of about 18 percent worldwide, and 29 percent in the U.S. Acer came in second. Both saw their unit volumes decline. For HP, that translated to a decline of more than 200,000 units in fourth-quarter PC sales, or a little more than 1 percent. For Acer, which had hitched its wagon to the netbook craze a few years ago, it translated to a decline of nearly 2 percent, or more than 222,000 units. Dell, Lenovo and Toshiba all saw their shipments grow, with Lenovo leading the pack, growing a healthy 21 percent.

Gartner says that worldwide shipments totaled 93.5 million units in the fourth quarter, which amounted to growth of only 3 percent over the same period a year earlier, falling short of the 5 percent growth it had previously forecast. Gartner Analyst Mikako Kitagawa blames the iPad and other media tablets for the slackening growth. She says the industry’s one bright spot, oddly enough, is in enterprise, where companies are upgrading the machines they issue their employees. For the full year, the worldwide PC industry recovered from the recession, growing nearly 14 percent to 308 million units.

Apple remained in fifth place in the U.S. with a share of market just shy of 10 percent, and less than a percentage point behind Toshiba. Notably, this figure doesn’t include iPads, which hit a combined 7.5 million units in Apple’s third and fourth fiscal quarters, both of which ended before the holiday season. (Apple will reports earnings for its first fiscal quarter, which includes the holiday season, next week.)

IDC’s survey found the same trend, but it differed from the Gartner survey on a few key points. IDC put Dell in second place, behind HP and ahead of Acer in the worldwide market share race. I’ll attribute this to differences in methodology, since Gartner and IDC differ a little in how they count.

Another interesting note is that IDC paints a more negative picture of Acer, pegging its decline in fourth-quarter sales at 15 percent from 2009 to 2010. I asked IDC analyst Loren Loverde about the difference in IDC’s results versus Gartner’s, and he said part of it comes from differences in methodology, but also from the fact that Acer is closely held and so is a tricky company to track, and the data it does disclose isn’t as detailed as the other companies’.

But Loverde also says decline, whether 2 percent or 15 percent, reflects a stark business reality for Acer. The road to PC growth through mini-notebooks and geographic expansion is closed. It was a good strategy while it lasted.

According to his supply chain checks, Apple plans to produce 45-48 million iPads in 2011, essentially double the most optimistic forecast to date. But even more stunning is Blair’s assessment of Apple’s iPhone forecast.

“We believe that Apple’s production forecasts for 2011 suggest iPhone units in the 100 million unit range for the full 2011 year,” Blair writes. “While a staggering number any way you look at it, our checks reflect full calendar 2010 builds in the 48-50 million unit range. While this number can change and adjust downward or upward based on demand, we believe it is incredibly bullish that Apple feels it is possible that they could see nearly 100 percent year over year growth for iPhone in 2011 as this would mean that exiting 2011, Apple would have approximately 10 percent share in the global handset market.”

The chart below (click to enlarge) shows what kind of quarterly numbers Apple would have to post to reach those totals.

So, 48 million iPads and 100 million iPhones in 2011. Seems a bit optimistic, though the company did sell 39.9 million iPhones in fiscal 2010, a 93 percent increase year-over-year. Given that, the “nearly 100 percent year-over-year growth” that Blair is talking about doesn’t seem as fantastical as it would otherwise. We’ll see, I guess.

Apple’s stock rose above $300 per share today for the first time in the company’s history. It’s trading around $301 or so as I write this, which puts Apple’s market cap above $275 billion. The stock has spiked more than 40 percent this year, and analysts say it could go higher still. According to Thomson Reuters, 46 of 49 analysts who cover Apple have a price target of $300 or higher on the stock, and three of those have targets of at least $400 a share.

Apple (AAPL) is due to report fiscal fourth quarter results on Monday, October 18, after the bell.

Which is not to say that Sacconaghi disputes the iPad’s potential as a market-defining device. He just wonders if there aren’t a bit too many unknowns at present to make hard and fast predictions about its sales trajectory.

“What will international pricing be?” Sacconaghi asks in a research note issued this morning. “What sort of media content will be available, and how quickly? How rapidly will Apple increase distribution beyond the 10 countries announced so far, compared to the iPhone which is available in 89 countries? How prevalent will non-Apple distribution be?”

Reasonable questions. And without answers to them, Sacconaghi is playing it safe with his sales estimates. He expects Apple (AAPL) to sell between 300,000 and 400,000 iPads over launch weekend–including pre-sales. But he figures the device will sell five million in its first full year at market and 6.8 million in fiscal year 2011.

“We note that the initial iPad launch will be a US only launch and will not include 3G models; we suspect that total (including pre-sales) first weekend sales will be slightly higher than the original iPhone’s first weekend (270K), given the iPhone had a similar price, and was US exclusive (although it did not offer pre-orders),” Sacconaghi writes.

“Our analysis suggests that iPhone sales run rates have fallen significantly (i.e., by a factor of 4x – 9x) following launch weekends; we think a drop-off in sales at the high end of this range is likely appropriate for the iPad, given that pre-sales will have boosted first weekend sales. Such a drop-off in iPad sales from our launch weekend forecast would result in unit sales for year 1 of about 5 million units in-line with our estimates.”

That might not be an “over-zealous” estimate in Sacconaghi’s eyes, but it’s certainly a bullish one. Still, the analyst concludes that the iPad’s near term financial implications for Apple may not prove to be as magical as investors hope.

“We believe that while the iPad may evolve meaningfully over time, we expect its impact on Apple’s earnings to be minimal during FY 10,” he says. “In the immediate term, iPad expectations appear over-zealous, which could provide a relative short-term disappointment for investors.”

FURTHER READING:

Launch Day iPads Sold Out

iPad Available at “Most Best Buy Stores” This Saturday

Apple Grabs iPad Trademark From Fujitsu

Apple Now Accepting iPad App Submissions

Early Supplies of iPad Accessories Dwindling?

Initial iPad Demand Greater Than Initial iPhone Demand

iPad TV?

Apple’s Tablet: Read Different?

Rumored Apple Netbook Actually an E-book?

Coming Soon From Apple: Big Touch?

iTablet: Apple’s Killer App for Higher Ed

COMPLETE IPAD COVERAGE

Analysts had been expecting $1.06 a share on $30 billion in revenue.

All in all, a strong quarter. PC shipments grew 26 percent year-over year. Server revenue rose 11 percent. And Personal Systems Group revenue was up 20 percent.

Looking ahead to its second quarter, HP (HPQ) expects non-GAAP earnings-per-share of $1.03 to $1.05 on revenue of $29.4 billion to $29.7 billion. The company also raised its revenue outlook for fiscal 2010 to between $121.5 billion and $122.5 billion from an earlier forecast of $118 billion to $119 billion.

“HP is well-positioned to outperform the market,” HP CEO Mark Hurd said in a statement. “The strength of our portfolio, leaner cost structure and accelerating market momentum give us the confidence to raise our full-year outlook.”

This quarter was no different. Reporting earnings after the bell Monday, Apple (AAPL) posted a fiscal first-quarter profit of $3.38 billion on revenue that rose 32 percent to $15.68 billion. That far exceeded analysts’ forecasts of $12.1 billion.

It was the company’s all-time highest revenue and profit.

Apple sold 3.36 million Macs during the quarter–33 percent more than it sold a year ago. And the company sold 8.7 million iPhones. That’s 100 percent unit growth over the year-ago quarter, but a bit fewer than the 9.1 million The Street had been expecting. IPod sales topped out at 21 million, an eight percent unit decline from last year.

“We are very pleased to have generated $5.8 billion in cash during the quarter,” Apple COO Peter Oppenheimer said in a press release issued with the results. “Looking ahead to the second fiscal quarter of 2010, we expect revenue in the range of about $11.0 billion to $11.4 billion and we expect diluted earnings per share in the range of about $2.06 to $2.18.”

And in a nod to the company’s special event this Wednesday, Apple CEO Steve Jobs said, “The new products we are planning to release this year are very strong, starting this week with a major new product that we’re really excited about.”

NOTES FROM THE EARNINGS CALL

• Apple saw killer Mac sales this quarter, beating its previous record set in the September quarter by “over 300,000,” Oppenheimer reported.
• The company sold almost 21 million “traditional” iPods, compared with sales of 22.7 million a year ago. Oppenheimer said that decline was expected and was offset by the 55 percent year-over-year growth in sales of the iPod touch, which increased ASP and revenue.
• Apple now has iPhone distribution in 86 countries.
• The company expects to open 45 to 50 stores in fiscal 2010. Half will be in international locations.
• Enterprise demand for the iPhone is increasing. “Business customers have ranked iPhone the number 1 smartphone in the J.D. Power customer satisfaction survey for the second year in a row,” Oppenheimer reported. “And we have continued to see a rapidly growing number of CIOs who have added iPhone to their approved device list.”
• As a result of the new accounting standards Apple has adopted, financial results of each quarter from fiscal 2007 through fiscal 2009 have been revised.
• COO Tim Cook on issues with AT&T’s (T) network and how its bad press affects Apple: AT&T is a great partner. You know, we’ve been working with them since before the first iPhone. In the vast majority of locations, they provide a great experience. But there have been issues in some cities. They have acknowledged this and developed a plan to make things better and we have personally reviewed them. Cook added that he has “very high confidence” AT&T will resolve the issues to which he referred.
• Cook on the “major new product” Jobs hinted at in the company’s earnings release: “We have nothing to share today. Please stay tuned.”
• Apple expects to see a sequential decline in Mac sales next quarter, which is “typical.” The company expects traditional iPod sales to decrease, potentially even more than in the past.
• Earlier this month, Apple passed 200,000 for the number of iPhones activated in China. Cook: “We’re happy with China Unicom.”
• Tim Cook to an analyst digging for details about the company’s upcoming product announcement: “I wouldn’t want to take away your joy and surprise on Wednesday when you see our latest creation.”

According to a 10-Q filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Sun (JAVA) lost $120 million, or 16 cents a share, on revenue of $2.24 billion in its first quarter. During the same period a year ago, Sun lost $1.68 billion, or $2.24 a share, on $2.99 billion in sales. Analysts had been expecting earnings of 25 cents a share on revenue of $2.31 billion.

Oracle (ORCL) CEO Larry Ellison recently said that Sun is losing about $100 million a month as it waits for European antitrust regulators to approve its acquisition by Oracle. Looks like he’s about right.

Below, excerpts from the 10-Q:

Server Products Revenue
The decrease in Server Products revenue during the first quarter of fiscal 2010, as compared to the corresponding period in fiscal 2009, was primarily due to the economic downturn and consolidation of our customer base, specifically in the financial services sector, as projects were scaled back, delayed or canceled, in addition to the uncertainty associated with the proposed acquisition by Oracle and increased competition.

Storage Products Revenue
The decrease in Storage Products revenue during the first quarter of fiscal 2010, as compared to the corresponding period in fiscal 2009, was primarily attributable to the economic downturn as projects were scaled back, delayed or canceled, in addition to the uncertainty associated with our proposed acquisition by Oracle and increased competition.

North America
The decrease in revenue during the first quarter of fiscal 2010, as compared to the corresponding period in fiscal 2009, was primarily due to decreased sales of our enterprise Server Products, storage disk products and Services. We are still seeing the results of IT budget cuts instituted last year by our largest customers due to the economic downturn, especially in the financial services sector, in addition to the consolidation of our customer base. Across all sectors, non-critical projects are on hold. Revenue was also negatively impacted by the uncertainty associated with our proposed acquisition by Oracle and increased competition.

PREVIOUSLY:

• European Union Mulling Objection to Oracle-Sun Deal
• Q: What’s the Difference Between Neelie Kroes and Larry Ellison?
• Sun to Sack 3,000
• Former MySQL Boss to EC: Approve Oracle-Sun Deal
• Ellison: Oracle Is the New IBM
• Mr. Ellison Asks That His Burgers Be Served With Freedom Fries Until Further Notice

Earnings slipped by four percent, with RIM (RIMM) making $475.6 million, or 83 cents per share. Excluding one-time items, however, RIM earned $1.03 per share on sales of $3.53 billion, compared with 86 cents per share on sales of $2.58 billion in the same period last year. The Street had expected the company to turn in a profit of $1 per share on sales of $3.62 billion, according to a consensus from Thomson Reuters. RIM also shipped slightly fewer devices than analysts had hoped. The company said it sold about 8.3 million BlackBerry devices during the quarter, adding about 3.8 million new subscribers. Analysts had expected the company to add about 4 million new subscribers on shipments between 8.5 million and 8.6 million.

Looking ahead, RIM gave a per-share earnings outlook of between $1 and $1.08 for its third quarter, compared with a $1.05-per-share average expected by analysts.

Suffice it to say, investors are not pleased. RIM’s shares are down about 10 percent in extended trading as I write this.