AllThingsD » forecast http://allthingsd.com Mon, 20 May 2013 00:18:21 +0000 en-US hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.5.1 http://allthingsd.com/theme/images/logo-rss.jpg All Things Digital http://allthingsd.com/ 144 22 Eight Percent of Amazon's Sales Are Coming From Mobile http://allthingsd.com/20130104/eight-percent-of-amazons-sales-are-coming-from-mobile/ http://allthingsd.com/20130104/eight-percent-of-amazons-sales-are-coming-from-mobile/#comments Fri, 04 Jan 2013 21:50:21 +0000 Tricia Duryee http://allthingsd.com/?p=282440 Online retailers in 2012 were vigilant about making their sites accessible to consumers wherever and whenever they wanted to shop — whether it was on a PC, a phone or a tablet.

ecommerce380

Image via mtkang

And while many retailers, especially smaller privately held companies, were bullish on the number of transactions coming from mobile, other larger companies — especially Amazon — have remained mum on the subject.

But in a report today, Citi Analyst Neil Doshi estimates that Amazon is generating $3 billion to $5 billion in annual sales from mobile devices.

If this is the case, the question that has to be answered is, is this significant?

It’s really not.

Take a look at the facts. Based on Amazon’s 2012 revenue forecast, the company’s net sales will total somewhere around $60 billion in 2012, which means that mobile sales will equate to 5 percent to 8 percent of total dollars spent on Amazon.

When asked about his estimate, Doshi called it “conservative,” noting that in 2012, Amazon’s percentage of mobile transactions could be as high as 10 percent. The estimate also takes into account only purchases made on Amazon.com from mobile, and not digital downloads from Kindle devices, for example.

Granted, moving the needle at a company the size of Amazon is extremely difficult, but that’s still comparatively low when looking at others in the space.

Take a look at eBay. It’s anticipating mobile sales to hit $10 billion in 2012, which is at least twice as much as Doshi’s conservative estimate for Amazon. That could equate to nearly 16 percent of eBay’s 2012 revenue — which is double what it was in 2011, and double Amazon’s estimated percentage in 2012.

Doshi provided other comparison points for some of the leading online players: About 15 percent to 25 percent of Google’s search queries are coming from mobile, as are 15 percent to 20 percent of page views on LinkedIn and 40 percent of Walgreens’ online prescription refills.

Amazon is trailing here, but given the Seattle company’s huge investment in mobile, that’s hard to believe.

If Doshi’s estimate took into account digital downloads, the numbers would be a lot higher. Take e-books, for example. It would be logical if a majority of the e-books being purchased are occurring on Amazon’s own Kindle e-readers and tablets.

Additionally, it has invested heavily in building its own app store on Android devices, which sells digital content, such as games. Amazon also has a dozen or more mobile applications available across several platforms, including iOS, Android and its own Kindle devices, which helps consumers shop its homepage in a streamlined fashion.

During the 2011 Christmas season, Amazon launched a mobile promotion that encouraged consumers to compare prices in a retailer’s store by using its bar-code scanning technology on its phone app. Anyone who used the app to scan a bar code received up to $5 off on any purchases made. The purpose was to increase usage of its mobile apps, but it seriously backfired when local retailers accused Amazon of encouraging “showrooming,” in which consumers test products out in the store, but end up buying them online.

Since the PR blunder, Amazon has been especially quiet about its mobile successes, so it’s really hard to tell if the 5 percent to 8 percent range is even close to accurate.

But beyond just knowing the percentage of revenue coming from mobile, it’s equally difficult to define success. As Doshi points out, it’s hard to know whether mobile results in incremental revenue, or if it is cannibalizing purchases that would have otherwise occurred online.

He writes:

[T]here has been a relatively healthy debate around the extent of Mobile Internet usage that’s really incremental, and accordingly the extent of monetization opportunities that are completely incremental (and do not cannibalize traditional desktop / PC Internet usage).

Doshi adds that people tend to use phones while they are out during the day and tablet usage spikes from 7 to 10 pm when they are on the couch — in other words, mobile usage is occurring when they aren’t in front of a PC and therefore could be incremental.

In all, Doshi believes Amazon and eBay are “likely to benefit from increased sales activity from mobile devices.”

That’s obvious. After all, purchases made on the PC and mobile monetize the same. However, that’s not the case for content companies, which find it much harder to generate revenue from advertising on the smaller screens.

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20130104/eight-percent-of-amazons-sales-are-coming-from-mobile/feed/ 0 Nintendo Wii U Forecast Calls for Heavy Sales, Easing Later http://allthingsd.com/20121112/nintendo-wii-u-forecast-calls-for-heavy-sales-easing-later/ http://allthingsd.com/20121112/nintendo-wii-u-forecast-calls-for-heavy-sales-easing-later/#comments Mon, 12 Nov 2012 21:09:29 +0000 Tricia Duryee http://allthingsd.com/?p=268572 Pent-up demand by Nintendo fans may ensure that the new Wii U console starts off with a bang, but maintaining interest over the long term may prove to be the bigger challenge.

A report released by IHS Screen Digest today is forecasting sales of 3.5 million units between next week’s launch and the end of the year. At that rate, the console will outsell the original Wii, which sold 3.1 million units during the same period in 2006. But IHS warns that trouble may be on the horizon and that a successful launch doesn’t necessarily equate to ongoing momentum.

“This time around, Wii U’s pure innovation, coupled with a limited volume of high-quality Nintendo software, will not be enough to drive the ongoing sales momentum we witnessed with the Wii console, especially at a higher price point,” said Piers Harding-Rolls, IHS’s head of games. “Nintendo is still some way short of delivering a comprehensive engagement-led value proposition at the launch of the Wii U.”

During the first three years of sales, IHS is expecting Wii U sales to come in substantially below the original Wii, which cost $50 less and wowed consumers by offering innovative gesture-based controls. The base price of the Wii U is $300, with a deluxe version being sold for $350. Nintendo’s big point of differentiation this time around is an integrated tablet that can be used to control a game or a TV.

Currently, Microsoft’s Xbox is the leader, having racked up 22 straight months as the best-selling videogame console in the U.S. In October, Microsoft sold 270,000 Xbox units, and based on data from the NPD Group, holds a 56 percent market share of the current generation of consoles in the U.S.

IHS also warned that Nintendo could encounter supply shortages over the holidays, leaving some shoppers empty-handed. Many retailers have already sold out of pre-sales, with more units expected to be available for the Nov. 18 launch day. Here’s a look at how IHS expects Wii U sales to trend after the holidays:

 

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20121112/nintendo-wii-u-forecast-calls-for-heavy-sales-easing-later/feed/ 0 Romney Disses Tesla as "Loser" at Debate http://allthingsd.com/20121004/romney-disses-tesla-as-loser-at-debate/ http://allthingsd.com/20121004/romney-disses-tesla-as-loser-at-debate/#comments Thu, 04 Oct 2012 08:06:55 +0000 Kara Swisher http://allthingsd.com/?p=257015

While political pundits will be chewing over the first Presidential debate last night, techies are more likely to be pondering Gov. Mitt Romney’s dismissal of Tesla.

The company is the maker of high-end electric cars, many of which have been bought by rich geeks in Silicon Valley. But the Republican candidate dubbed Tesla a “loser” in an attack on tax breaks President Barack Obama gave to green energy companies.

“You put $90 billion — like 50 years’ worth of breaks — into solar and wind, to Solyndra and Fisker and Tesla and Ener1,” said Romney. “I mean, I had a friend who said, you don’t just pick the winners and losers; you pick the losers.”

Solyndra went bankrupt, while Ener1 and Fisker suffered definite financial distress.

And while Tesla has also seen its share of start-up troubles and had to cut 2012 forecasts, it seems to be recovering. In a blog post earlier yesterday, in fact, CEO Elon Musk said Tesla would start paying back hundreds of millions of dollars in loans from the Department of Energy early.

Not soon enough for Romney, it seems.

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20121004/romney-disses-tesla-as-loser-at-debate/feed/ 0 Why Google Doesn't Own the Next Chapter in Web Ads http://allthingsd.com/20121001/why-google-doesnt-own-the-next-chapter-in-web-ads/ http://allthingsd.com/20121001/why-google-doesnt-own-the-next-chapter-in-web-ads/#comments Mon, 01 Oct 2012 14:30:44 +0000 Peter Kafka http://allthingsd.com/?p=255664 Heads up: It’s “Advertising Week” in New York, which means that lots of ad-related companies are going to put out press releases with even less substance than usual.

That said, we can at least do some scene-setting for you courtesy of new forecasts from ZenithOptimedia, the media buying/research group. The official headline today is that Zenith has cut its global ad spend forecast for the year from 4.3 percent to 3.8 percent, because a big chunk of Europe is melting down.

But the news would be if a forecaster didn’t acknowledge the fact that people are eating out of trash cans in Spain. And in any case, Zenith expects Europe to start improving as early as next year.

So let’s focus instead on the different places advertisers can put their dollars. Here’s Zenith’s breakdown for the U.S. market:

Since you’re reading this site you know the broad strokes: New media growing, old media slowing. But do take another look at those TV dollars, which remain dominant and unmoved. Digital’s growth, to date, remains fueled in large part by the decline of print.

Things get most interesting when you dive deeper into digital, and look at how that money is being split up. For a very long time, “Internet advertising” has essentially meant “paid search advertising,” which means Google.

Not anymore. Display ads are finally gaining speed.

Globally, display ads will be growing at a 20 percent clip the next couple years, Zenith says, while paid search will move at 14 percent. Google is a big player in display advertising, too — it has been spending heavily on acquisitions there for years — but it doesn’t have anything like the lead it does in search.

That’s a big growth story for Facebook and a potential lifeline for Yahoo and AOL. And if somebody else wants to build a business based on selling ads — not just eyeball acquisition, but the actual work of turning those eyeballs into marketing opportunities — that’s a real opportunity for them, too.

[Shutterstock/Roman Sigaev]

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20121001/why-google-doesnt-own-the-next-chapter-in-web-ads/feed/ 0 Latest Tablet Shipments Forecast: Lots More http://allthingsd.com/20120919/latest-tablet-shipments-forecast-lots-more/ http://allthingsd.com/20120919/latest-tablet-shipments-forecast-lots-more/#comments Wed, 19 Sep 2012 22:45:48 +0000 John Paczkowski http://allthingsd.com/?p=252263 The economic concerns troubling consumers these days don’t seem to be having much effect on tablet sales. Demand for the devices is unceasing, so much so that market researchers are adjusting their shipment forecasts upward.

IDC, which had previously been looking for global tablet shipments of 107 million for the year, on Wednesday raised that by 9 percent. It now expects tablet shipments to hit 117.1 million units this year. That’s a nearly 70 percent increase over the 69 million tablets shipped last year.

Significant annual gains will follow. IDC figures tablet shipments top out at 165.9 million in 2013, up from its prior estimate of 142 million. And by 2016, shipments could hit 261 million. Unsurprisingly, Apple and Google stand to benefit the most from this trend. IDC figures Apple will claim 60 percent of the tablet market this year and cede just 2 percent of it in the years that follow, for a share of 58 percent by 2016. It expects Android to capture 35 percent of the market this year and to be holding on to a 30.5 percent share four years from now.

So where will that lost share end up? With Microsoft.

IDC reckons Windows-based tablet will carve out a 4 percent share in 2012 and extend that to 11 percent by 2016. “Tablets running Microsoft’s upcoming Windows 8 and RT operating systems, including the company’s own Surface tablets, will add some momentum,” IDC analyst Jennifer Song explains. “However, we expect shipments to remain low in the fourth quarter as high prices and consumer confusion around these devices will limit their appeal.”

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20120919/latest-tablet-shipments-forecast-lots-more/feed/ 0 Why Groupon's Shares Fell 20 Percent, Even Though Profits Are Up http://allthingsd.com/20120813/why-groupons-shares-fell-20-percent-even-though-profits-are-up/ http://allthingsd.com/20120813/why-groupons-shares-fell-20-percent-even-though-profits-are-up/#comments Tue, 14 Aug 2012 01:04:20 +0000 Tricia Duryee http://allthingsd.com/?p=240892 Groupon exceeded earnings expectations for the second quarter and revenues were in the right ballpark.

So, why did the company’s stock fall a jaw-dropping 20 percent?

In a nutshell: During the quarter, most of the company’s growth came from its lower-margin products business and not its super-lucrative coupons business.

Groupon Goods, which sells everything from bed linens to yogurt-making kits, surpassed $200 million in annualized revenue in the quarter.

While that’s impressive for the nine-month-old business, investors and analysts have a good reason to be bummed. Sales from Groupon Goods, along with other items the company sells directly, accounted for 12 percent of revenue during the period. When excluding these items, revenue actually fell 7 percent compared to the first quarter.

Additionally, since Groupon purchases some of these items in advance, its expenses went up. In the second quarter, Groupon’s so-called “cost of goods sold” increased to 24 percent of sales, up from 14 percent in the year-ago period, explains The Wall Street Journal.

In a detailed analysis of this trend, Business Insider’s Henry Blodget said: “Groupon’s core business … is now shrinking.”

The chart on the left illustrates this well.

In the second quarter, you can see how the company’s revenue is no longer increasing by leaps and bounds. Additionally, the company blamed some of the period’s difficulties on economic woes in Europe and foreign exchange rates. For example, Groupon said revenue increased 45 percent year over year, but would have jumped by 53 percent if the impact of foreign exchange was eliminated.

But it’s the core business that most investors find themselves concerned with. Going forward, the company is offering a conservative forecast. In the third quarter, it expects revenue to total $580 million to $620 million. Meanwhile, analysts are expecting revenue of $605.5 million, or slightly above the midpoint.

During the conference call, executives declined to discuss margins for Goods, which is really at the heart of the matter.

“The success we’ve had on Groupon Goods is a reflection of our consumer brand,” said Groupon’s Chief Andrew Mason, who added that the opportunity reminded him of the company’s early days. “Our customers think of us as a way to find unbeatable prices.”

In after-hours trading, the company’s stock fell nearly 20 percent to $6.06 a share to hit a new all-time low.

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20120813/why-groupons-shares-fell-20-percent-even-though-profits-are-up/feed/ 0 Qualcomm Shares Gain Despite Forecast http://allthingsd.com/20120718/qualcomm-shares-gain-despite-forecast/ http://allthingsd.com/20120718/qualcomm-shares-gain-despite-forecast/#comments Wed, 18 Jul 2012 22:01:53 +0000 Dan Gallagher http://allthingsd.com/?p=231677 Qualcomm Inc. saw its shares jump in after-hours trades on Wednesday despite a forecast that was below Wall Street’s projections for the current quarter.

The move was attributed to investors predicting a bottom for the wireless chip maker that has shed about 16% of its value since its last earnings report, when Qualcomm warned of an industrywide shortage of 28-nanometer chips of the type used in the latest smartphone devices. Qualcomm maintained its view on Wednesday that the supply situation is expected to improve by the end of the calendar year.

Read the rest of this post on the original site »

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20120718/qualcomm-shares-gain-despite-forecast/feed/ 0 The Weather Channel's Kenny and Weather Underground's Steremberg Talk, Um, Weather (Video) http://allthingsd.com/20120711/the-weather-channels-kenny-and-weather-undergrounds-steremberg-talk-um-weather-video/ http://allthingsd.com/20120711/the-weather-channels-kenny-and-weather-undergrounds-steremberg-talk-um-weather-video/#comments Wed, 11 Jul 2012 21:28:41 +0000 Kara Swisher http://allthingsd.com/?p=229277

When David Kenny took over as CEO of the Weather Channel in January, it was seen as an unusual move for the longtime digital advertising exec.

But he appears to have taken the job by storm — I just had to make that pun — with some significant advertising hires at the biggest online weather site in the U.S., which also has a big cable television presence.

(The Weather Channel is owned as a private entity, including Comcast, Bain Capital and the Blackstone Group.)

And, perhaps most important so far, Kenny also purchased one of the Weather Channel’s biggest rivals, Weather Underground.

Weather Underground — which is a kind of sassier sibling of the more buttoned-up Weather Channel — has actually been independent for almost two decades, having started off as a project at the University of Michigan.

And, despite the purchase, it will continue to operate as its own brand, under the guidance of its longtime leader, Alan Steremberg.

I interviewed Kenny and Steremberg at Weather Underground’s China Basin HQ in San Francisco about the merger of the two top weather brands and key trends of where weather is headed online.

Think mobile, think global, think weather sensors everywhere, think increased mapping integration, and you have the right forecast.

Here’s the video:


[ See post to watch video ]

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20120711/the-weather-channels-kenny-and-weather-undergrounds-steremberg-talk-um-weather-video/feed/ 0 Sony Forecasts End of Loss Streak http://allthingsd.com/20120510/sony-forecasts-end-of-loss-streak/ http://allthingsd.com/20120510/sony-forecasts-end-of-loss-streak/#comments Thu, 10 May 2012 12:30:15 +0000 Kelly Olsen and Juro Osawa http://allthingsd.com/?p=206516 After reporting a net loss of $5.7 billion for the last fiscal year — its fourth annual loss in a row — Sony Corp. said it expects to swing back to a profit this fiscal year as its consumer-electronics and component businesses recover.

For the year ending next March, the Japanese electronics giant Thursday forecast a net profit of ¥30 billion ($376 million), an operating profit of ¥180 billion and a 14 percent rise in revenue to ¥7.4 trillion. Sony said it expects major improvements in its camera, personal-computer and component businesses, hurt last year by the earthquake and tsunami in Japan as well as the flooding in Thailand, an important production center.

Read the rest of this post on the original site »

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20120510/sony-forecasts-end-of-loss-streak/feed/ 0 Millions of Americans Dial Up Travel Plans From the Phone http://allthingsd.com/20120417/millions-of-americans-dial-up-travel-plans-from-the-phone/ http://allthingsd.com/20120417/millions-of-americans-dial-up-travel-plans-from-the-phone/#comments Tue, 17 Apr 2012 21:43:03 +0000 Tricia Duryee http://allthingsd.com/?p=197281 While total spending on online travel continues to grow, it is the mobile travel market that has everyone excited.

In a report released today, eMarketer estimates that 16 million Americans will book travel from their mobile devices this year, increasing 33 percent from 12 million in 2011. Even more people — roughly 37.8 million — will use their phones to research travel this year.

It’s no wonder that big online travel agencies, like Priceline and Expedia, are quickly expanding into mobile. One common mobile strategy is to build an app that gives deep discounts to people who book a hotel room from their phone for the same night.

Travelers who may not have access to a computer are an obvious market for hotel information, flights, maps, reviews and other services.

EMarketer said despite mobile’s rapid growth, total spending on online travel is growing more slowly than overall online retail sales. This year, online travel spending is set to increase 11 percent to $120 billion in the U.S.

But clearly all the trends spell bad news for travel agents and physical travel agencies. EMarketer expects a majority of Internet users to research and book via the Web.

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20120417/millions-of-americans-dial-up-travel-plans-from-the-phone/feed/ 0 The Hottest Trend in E-Commerce? Clothes. http://allthingsd.com/20120405/the-hottest-fashion-in-e-commerce-clothes/ http://allthingsd.com/20120405/the-hottest-fashion-in-e-commerce-clothes/#comments Thu, 05 Apr 2012 20:07:20 +0000 Tricia Duryee http://allthingsd.com/?p=193623 Apparel is the fastest-growing segment in e-commerce this year, thanks to new ways to display clothing online.

EMarketer predicts that the apparel and accessories category is expected to grow by 20 percent to $40.9 billion this year, up from $34.2 billion in 2011.

That beats the sale of books, music and videos, which have historically been considered the most dominant e-commerce categories — those are now expected to grow by only 18 percent to $20.4 billion this year.

The report published by the Internet market research firm today is the first time it has broken down its forecasts by category.

EMarketer attributed the gains in apparel to retailers’ improved methods for displaying products online that make purchasing clothes, in particular, less of a guessing game.

Some of the visual innovations are stunning.

For instance, Amazon.com’s MyHabit, a private sales clothing site, produces animated videos of models wearing the clothing for sale. The representations are so realistic, the fabric sways as the model struts and turns as if walking down a catwalk.

On the more whimsical side of innovations is eBay’s augmented reality app that allows users to “try on” a pair of sunglasses by layering them over a picture of their face.

But in addition to new display technology, there are also many more apparel sites for consumers to choose from. Over the last two years, the idea of private sales or flash sales — offering expensive, high-end fashion at steep discounts — has spread like wildfire.

Free shipping also plays a role since it removes some of the risk for consumers: If they don’t like a shirt or pair of pants, they don’t have to pay a fee for delivery back to the retailer.

Overall, the report is predicting another big year for e-commerce. It expects U.S. retail sales to grow 15.4 percent to $224.2 billion in 2012, which is higher than eMarketer’s previous forecast that called for e-commerce to grow 11.3 percent to $209.3 billion in 2012.

The biggest category in 2012 is expected to be computer and consumer electronics, which have a higher price point, and are expected to bring in a total of $48.6 billion.

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20120405/the-hottest-fashion-in-e-commerce-clothes/feed/ 0 eBay Predicts Mobile Commerce Will Grow 60 Percent in 2012 http://allthingsd.com/20120112/ebay-predicts-mobile-commerce-will-grow-60-percent-in-2012/ http://allthingsd.com/20120112/ebay-predicts-mobile-commerce-will-grow-60-percent-in-2012/#comments Thu, 12 Jan 2012 19:24:08 +0000 Tricia Duryee http://allthingsd.com/?p=163281 EBay’s John Donahoe has drawn his 2012 mobile predictions line in the sand.

He is forecasting that mobile commerce — purchases made from apps or the browser on a phone or tablet — will hit $8 billion in mobile gross merchandise volume this year, up 60 percent from $5 billion in 2011.

Donahoe made the predictions last night in Las Vegas, where he gave the keynote at a technology dinner for leaders of the Consumer Electronics Association.

Additionally, the company predicted that PayPal will reach $7 billion in mobile total payment volume this year, increasing from $4 billion in 2011.

He made the bold predictions despite the recent unsettling departure of PayPal President Scott Thompson to join Yahoo as CEO, indicating that he is still confident about PayPal’s mobile future.

During the keynote, Donahoe also announced that Best Buy was its newest partner to use the RedLaser barcode scanning app to offer local in-store pick-up services. Other companies that offer it today include Toys “R” Us.

Other big data figures: 

  • EBay Mobile currently has more than 65 million downloads of its mobile applications across all platforms.
  • More than 890,000 new eBay shoppers made their first eBay purchase through the company’s mobile apps in 2011, a 113 percent increase year over year.
  • PayPal’s original prediction for 2011 was that it would achieve $1.5 billion in mobile total payment volume for 2011. Instead, it hit $4 billion. A year earlier, it totaled only $750 million.

MORE CES NEWS:

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20120112/ebay-predicts-mobile-commerce-will-grow-60-percent-in-2012/feed/ 0 Another Ad Forecast Dims http://allthingsd.com/20111204/another-ad-forecast-dims/ http://allthingsd.com/20111204/another-ad-forecast-dims/#comments Mon, 05 Dec 2011 04:20:05 +0000 Peter Kafka http://allthingsd.com/?p=150042 We’ve seen several ad forecasters pull back their growth predictions in recent months, and here’s another: Zenith Optimedia projects worldwide ad spend to increase 3.5 percent in 2011 and 4.7 percent in 2012. That’s down from an October forecast of 3.6 percent and 5.3 percent, respectively. Web spending, per usual, will grow much faster –15.9 percent between 2011 and 2014, with Google now accounting for 44 percent of the digital market.

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20111204/another-ad-forecast-dims/feed/ 0 Tick, Tick, Tick, HP Board: The Time to Act Is Today http://allthingsd.com/20110922/tick-tick-tick-hp-board-the-time-to-act-is-today/ http://allthingsd.com/20110922/tick-tick-tick-hp-board-the-time-to-act-is-today/#comments Thu, 22 Sep 2011 10:15:57 +0000 Kara Swisher http://allthingsd.com/?p=123467

The Hewlett-Packard board will meet as a whole today, after all kinds of committee confabs yesterday, in what sources describe as an intense debate over the fate of its current CEO, Léo Apotheker.

You know, the Léo who is now painfully twisting in the wind, after AllThingsD and Bloomberg broke the news that he might be ousted after only 11 months on the job, and replaced — at least for now — by director and former eBay CEO Meg Whitman.

If appointed, even without many critical credentials in the enterprise business, Whitman would be HP’s seventh CEO since 1999. That’s more corporate marriages and exec beheadings than England’s Henry VIII!

The possibility of one more, including other internal and external candidates, sent long-suffering HP shares soaring yesterday, and the stock was still up almost seven percent in after-hours trading.

That Wall Street glee is surely to come crashing down and very soon today, if the current crisis at the Silicon Valley tech giant — which has stumbled from one to the next over the last few years — is not quickly and definitively resolved by the board.

That means, of course, the likely firing of Apotheker, whose tenure has been rocky, articulating a strategy that the company actually plans to stick to and getting a new leader into place.

Translation: Don’t pull a Yahoo board here and drag out the situation to the most excruciating level possible.

Beyond the moribund stock and pissed-off shareholders, the uncertainty will be wearing on employee morale, including HP’s top execs.

According to sources close to the situation, leaders of HP’s many huge divisions had no idea that Apotheker’s head was on the block — although many I spoke to said they had hoped for a while that it would be.

“Leo is a very nice guy, but he has been an ineffective leader for HP at a very important time, with all that has been changing in the tech industry and the pressure from our competitors,” said one person at the company.

Said another, “[Apotheker will] get the blame, but this board needs to get a plan into place we can all follow, and then march this giant army in some direction, because all these shifts have been disheartening.”

I would imagine so.

Still, said sources, the board might not resolve the problem until later today, or Friday, even.

“The board really can’t look like it is making rash decisions,” said one person close to the situation. “And it cannot be hurtling from one mess to another and making an even bigger one in the process.”

That, given the many troubles at HP in recent years — from ever-shifting strategies to disappointing forecasts — is what you might call an understatement.

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20110922/tick-tick-tick-hp-board-the-time-to-act-is-today/feed/ 0 No Sign of Daily Deal Fatigue in the U.S. as Revenue Forecasts Grow http://allthingsd.com/20110913/no-sign-of-daily-deal-fatigue-in-the-u-s-as-revenue-forecasts-grow/ http://allthingsd.com/20110913/no-sign-of-daily-deal-fatigue-in-the-u-s-as-revenue-forecasts-grow/#comments Tue, 13 Sep 2011 23:53:05 +0000 Tricia Duryee http://allthingsd.com/?p=120413 Despite Facebook pulling out of the deals business and questions swirling around Groupon’s pending IPO, the daily deals market is still growing.

In fact, it’s moving so quickly that a research firm that released a report only five months ago is already revising its projections upward for the year.

BIA/Kelsey now believes that consumer spending on deals in the U.S. will hit $2 billion, up from its previous forecast of $1.2 billion.

In a release, the research firm said the growth is being fueled by a larger number of registered users who are actively buying deals, better targeting capabilities and new niches in the space, including flash sales sites, which offer deals on apparel and other categories for a limited time via email.

Calculating spending habits in the space is likely difficult, given that Groupon is the only company that has publicly disclosed its figures in its registration statement.

Mark Fratrik, BIA/Kelsey VP and chief economist, said despite the revisions, the firm sees a ceiling coming “on how many deals consumers will buy and their overall interest levels in deals.”

Because of that, the report was less bullish on the industry’s five-year prospects. The research firm also increased its long-term view on the space, although more modestly, saying that in 2015 it expects spending to hit $4.2 billion, up from its previous forecast of $3.9 billion in March.

Both numbers far exceed the $873 million that the research firm estimates was spent in 2010.

Coincidentally, Groupon said its second-quarter revenues increased to almost exactly that much, or $878 million, which is a worldwide total.

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20110913/no-sign-of-daily-deal-fatigue-in-the-u-s-as-revenue-forecasts-grow/feed/ 0 Hey, Guess What Happens to Advertising if the Economy Tanks http://allthingsd.com/20110907/hey-guess-what-happens-to-advertising-if-the-economy-tanks/ http://allthingsd.com/20110907/hey-guess-what-happens-to-advertising-if-the-economy-tanks/#comments Wed, 07 Sep 2011 11:30:52 +0000 Peter Kafka http://allthingsd.com/?p=117906 Here’s some unpleasant deja vu: Summer’s over, the economy is wobbling and analysts are starting to hack away at advertising forecasts.

2011 isn’t 2008, yet. So Barclays analyst Anthony DiClemente doesn’t think the ad business is going to get hammered — he just thinks it’s going to grow less. The exception here is very old print media, like magazines, newspapers and direct mail, in part because of pressure from daily-deal guys like Groupon and Living Social.

Note that Time Warner has already said it has seen weakness at Time Inc. during Q3, and I’ve heard the same from other publishers, as well.

And as with the last go-round, DiClemente (and others) argue that Web advertising will fare best if we really do go into a double dip.

It’s the same argument, too: Ad dollars still haven’t completely followed consumers into the Web, so there’s plenty of growth left, especially when it comes to video, etc. And Web advertising is more efficient than offline, so in a cash crunch, advertisers will have more incentive to use it, etc.

Which may all be true (I hope it is, given where you’re reading this). But also note that both AOL and Yahoo have made noises about softness in display ads this summer. Then again, both of those companies have plenty of their own problems.

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20110907/hey-guess-what-happens-to-advertising-if-the-economy-tanks/feed/ 0 After Pushing webOS Off a Cliff, HP Watches Its Stock Take a Deep Dive http://allthingsd.com/20110819/after-pushing-webos-off-a-cliff-hp-stock-also-takes-a-deep-dive/ http://allthingsd.com/20110819/after-pushing-webos-off-a-cliff-hp-stock-also-takes-a-deep-dive/#comments Fri, 19 Aug 2011 17:40:12 +0000 Kara Swisher http://allthingsd.com/?p=112287

What a difference a day makes.

In the 24 hours since Hewlett-Packard announced it was cutting production of its high-profile webOS mobile devices and might spin off its huge consumer PC business, stock of the tech giant has plummeted 20 percent.

HP shares are down $5.91 right now, at $23.60, one of the worst dives in its long history.

The reason? Wall Street is confused at what HP management and its board are up to.

So is everyone else, so get in line!

In any case, the one-fifth drop in value might be due to the length of time HP said it would take to execute its dramatically announced new plans. That is likely to keep the stock depressed, as investors are still uncertain what it all means.

One thing was clear: HP’s financial prospects are certainly dicey. Even as the Palo Alto, Calif., company announced its major strategic shift, it reported disastrous third-quarter earnings, included lowering its full-year forecast once again.

Related posts

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20110819/after-pushing-webos-off-a-cliff-hp-stock-also-takes-a-deep-dive/feed/ 0 Magnum P.I. Can See the Future, and We're Living in It Right Now http://allthingsd.com/20110812/magnum-p-i-can-see-the-future-and-were-living-in-it-right-now/ http://allthingsd.com/20110812/magnum-p-i-can-see-the-future-and-were-living-in-it-right-now/#comments Fri, 12 Aug 2011 13:27:31 +0000 Peter Kafka http://allthingsd.com/?p=109325 Turns out these 1993 AT&T ads, narrated by Tom Selleck, have floated around the Web for a while, but it’s Friday and I hadn’t seen them (again) until yesterday. So here you go. Marvel at the astonishing accuracy of every prediction here:

At this point — remember, less than 20 years after the ads ran — you’d really have to be a quibbler to argue with any of the forecasts. (Yes, no one Skypes from phone booths, but that’s really because no one uses phone booths, and you can do it from your iPad, anyway.)

If you’re old enough to have a hazy memory of these ads the first time around, the fact that the former future is now present tense might really give you pause. You know, if you were so inclined.

UPDATE: As Richard Raucci notes, the spots were directed by David Fincher, pre “Fight Club” and “The Social Network”. And Terry O’Gara, who worked on the music for the ads, has a fascinating look behind the scenes, with some thought-provoking perspective about sound + vision.

Bonus really, really old video!

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20110812/magnum-p-i-can-see-the-future-and-were-living-in-it-right-now/feed/ 0 Sony Slides to Loss on Quake, Cuts Guidance http://allthingsd.com/20110728/sony-slides-to-loss-on-quake-cuts-guidance/ http://allthingsd.com/20110728/sony-slides-to-loss-on-quake-cuts-guidance/#comments Thu, 28 Jul 2011 10:11:22 +0000 Juro Osawa http://allthingsd.com/?p=103604 Sony Corp. said Thursday it slipped to a net loss in its fiscal first quarter, squeezed by the impact of the March 11 disasters, and lowered its earnings forecast for the fiscal year, citing weak sales of televisions as well as the yen’s strength versus the euro.

Sony, a consumer electronics bellwether for Japan and maker of iconic products like the Walkman music player, recorded a net loss of ¥15.5 billion ($198.7 million) in the quarter ended June. That compared with a net profit of ¥25.7 billion in the same period a year earlier.

Operating profit for the quarter was sliced by more than half to ¥27.5 billion from ¥67.02 billion a year earlier. Revenue declined about 10% to ¥1.49 trillion from ¥1.66 trillion.

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]]> http://allthingsd.com/20110728/sony-slides-to-loss-on-quake-cuts-guidance/feed/ 0 Texas Instruments Cuts Outlook, Citing Nokia http://allthingsd.com/20110608/texas-instruments-cuts-outlook-citing-nokia/ http://allthingsd.com/20110608/texas-instruments-cuts-outlook-citing-nokia/#comments Wed, 08 Jun 2011 23:31:49 +0000 Shara Tibken http://allthingsd.com/?p=84585 Semiconductor maker Texas Instruments Inc. reduced its expectations for the second quarter because of weaker demand from wireless customer Nokia Corp.

TI’s lowered guidance, announced at the company’s midquarter update Wednesday, comes after Nokia last week sharply lowered its sales forecast. The Finnish handset maker, a big customer of TI chips, has been struggling to keep up in a smartphone market increasingly dominated by rivals like Google Inc. and Apple Inc.

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]]> http://allthingsd.com/20110608/texas-instruments-cuts-outlook-citing-nokia/feed/ 0 IBM's Profit Rises 10 Percent http://allthingsd.com/20110419/ibms-profit-rises-10-percent/ http://allthingsd.com/20110419/ibms-profit-rises-10-percent/#comments Tue, 19 Apr 2011 21:08:18 +0000 John Kell http://voices.allthingsd.com/?p=39128 International Business Machines Corp.’s quarterly earnings rose 10 percent, as the technology giant posted improved margins and its best quarterly revenue growth in a decade.

The company also forecast full-year operating earnings would rise to “at least” $13.15 a share, compared with IBM’s January estimate of “at least” $13. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had most recently forecast $13.08.

Shares jumped 2.1 percent to $168.89 in after-hours trading on the strong results.

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]]> http://allthingsd.com/20110419/ibms-profit-rises-10-percent/feed/ 0 Analyst Warns of Global iPademic http://allthingsd.com/20110329/analyst-warns-of-global-ipademic/ http://allthingsd.com/20110329/analyst-warns-of-global-ipademic/#comments Tue, 29 Mar 2011 18:26:03 +0000 John Paczkowski http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/?p=59406 With iPad 2 hopefuls still queuing outside Apple stores each morning, more than two weeks after the device’s U.S. launch, and international demand causing widespread stock-outs abroad, analysts who follow Apple are scrambling to adjust their iPad sales and earnings-per-share estimates. The latest to do so is Needham’s Charlie Wolf, who today raised his 2011 iPad sales forecast to 30 million units from 20 million.

That’s an additional $1 in EPS for 2011–from $22.25 to $23.25.

“Our expectation going into the Match 11th launch of the iPad 2 in the U.S. was that it would be successful, but probably more subdued than the launch of the original iPad a year ago,” Wolf wrote in a research note titled “AAPL: Shock and Awe.” “The launch blew out our expectations…. In our previous forecast of iPad sales, we had assumed that the fourth calendar quarter of 2010, when Apple shipped 7.3 million units, represented a seasonal high and that sales would recede in the seasonally weaker quarters that followed. Our mistake was to assume only modest secular growth in demand. The launch of the iPad 2, especially abroad, suggests that the underlying secular growth rate of sales is much higher than we previous assumed.”

So much so that it may be a struggle for Apple to satisfy demand for the iPad for quite some time. “Based on December quarter sales, it appears Apple can manufacture around 75,000 iPads per day,” Wolf observed. “Nevertheless, the long lines and stock-outs indicate the iPad 2 will probably be supply constrained for weeks, if not months.”

Which isn’t the best place to be–obviously Apple would much prefer a scenario in which it was able to satsify demand. But it’s a good one nonetheless, particularly since there’s not yet a rival tablet that comes close to matching the iPad.

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20110329/analyst-warns-of-global-ipademic/feed/ 2 Priceline's Stock Takes Off, Fueled by Rosy Outlook http://allthingsd.com/20110223/pricelines-stock-takes-off-fueled-by-rosy-outlook/ http://allthingsd.com/20110223/pricelines-stock-takes-off-fueled-by-rosy-outlook/#comments Thu, 24 Feb 2011 00:25:04 +0000 Tricia Duryee http://emoney.allthingsd.com/?p=3080 Priceline’s stock took flight today in after-hours trading, jumping $19, or 4.5 percent, to $445 a share, following the release of its fourth-quarter earnings.

Wall Street’s generous run-up can be traced to two drivers: The company’s quarterly profits increased 73 percent year-over-year, and its rosy forecast exceeded analysts’ expectations.

But despite the gains today, Priceline’s stock is trading slightly lower than last week, when it hit a five-year high of roughly $460 a share.

The e-commerce site, which is the largest online travel agency by market value, reported fourth-quarter net income of $135.7 million, compared to $78.4 million in the same period a year ago. Revenues totaled $731 million, increasing 35 percent over a year ago.

Quarterly revenues were boosted by strong international operations, which contributed $374.9 million, increasing 68 percent over the same period a year earlier.

Priceline’s outlook is also positive.

The Norwalk, Conn.-based company expects first-quarter net income, excluding some items, of between $2.34 and $2.44 a share. Analysts on average predicted earnings per share of $2.30, according to a Bloomberg survey. Sales are also expected to grow at least 29 percent to $753.9 million, exceeding estimates of $731.9 million.

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20110223/pricelines-stock-takes-off-fueled-by-rosy-outlook/feed/ 0 Thank William Shatner as Priceline's Stock Price Negotiates a Five-Year High http://allthingsd.com/20110215/thank-william-shatner-as-pricelines-stock-price-negotiates-a-five-year-high/ http://allthingsd.com/20110215/thank-william-shatner-as-pricelines-stock-price-negotiates-a-five-year-high/#comments Tue, 15 Feb 2011 19:09:36 +0000 Tricia Duryee http://emoney.allthingsd.com/?p=2856 Priceline’s shares traded at a five-year high today, nearly tripling in value over the past year alone.

The company said it is performing well, as deal seekers around the world–from North America to Western Europe to the Asia-Pacific region–look for deals on hotels and rental cars, specifically, and benefit from improvements in the economy.

The company’s stock is trading at $463.33, up $6.32 a share today. A new 52-week high was hit yesterday, trading at $459.57 a share.

Yesterday, Priceline announced it entered its fifth straight year of its well-known advertising campaign, featuring William Shatner–a.k.a. “the Priceline Negotiator.”

Shatner is portrayed as a James Bond-like character who will stop at nothing to obtain the best travel deals and maximum savings for Priceline customers–although he does silly things along the way, too, like watch a gorilla wrestle a scrawny man.

Shatner will be joined in the campaign–created by Butler, Shine, Stern & Partners–by new sidekicks Naomi Pryce and the NBA’s all-time leading scorer, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.

The Norwalk, Conn.-based company will release its fourth-quarter and full-year results Feb. 23.

Expect the focus to be on growth.

Priceline is forecasting total gross travel bookings to jump year-over-year by 36 to 41 percent, with most of the growth coming internationally.

International bookings are expected to jump by 54 to 59 percent vs. minimal growth in domestic gross travel of 5 to 10 percent.

Annual revenues are forecasted to jump by 31 to 36 percent, and gross profits are expected to soar by 49 to 54 percent.

As a close competitor to Priceline, Expedia.com hit a 52-week high of $29.85 back in September, but has fallen considerably since, to trade around $21.69 a share.

Yesterday, Expedia relaunched a new price-savings campaign called ASAP: A Sudden Amazing Price. The  promotion will offer two discounts a day on hotels and other items of up to 50 percent, aimed at both sides of the country.

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20110215/thank-william-shatner-as-pricelines-stock-price-negotiates-a-five-year-high/feed/ 0 Sprint Now Gaining Subscribers Instead of Losing Them http://allthingsd.com/20110210/sprint-manages-first-subscriber-gain-since-2007/ http://allthingsd.com/20110210/sprint-manages-first-subscriber-gain-since-2007/#comments Thu, 10 Feb 2011 14:45:26 +0000 John Paczkowski http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/?p=57532 Good news for long-suffering Sprint Nextel investors: Customer retention has finally improved to the point where the carrier is able to report actual gains in postpaid subscribers, rather than losses.

Posting fourth-quarter earnings this morning, Sprint said it added 1.1 million total wireless subscribers, 58,000 of them two-year contract customers. Quite a milestone for a company that hasn’t seen a gain in postpaid subscribers in 13 quarters and a sign that Sprint may finally be turning a corner. Another good sign: Postpaid churn fell to 1.86 percent from 2.11 percent in the third quarter, and prepaid churn fell to 4.93 percent from 5.32 percent. And another: For the quarter, Sprint added almost 1.1 million wireless subscribers, its best showing in nearly five years.

All welcome news, even if Sprint is still losing money. The company reported a fourth-quarter loss of $929 million, or 31 cents a share, on revenue of $8.3 billion, up from $7.9 billion a year ago. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters most recently forecast a loss of 30 cents a share on $8.15 billion in revenue. Said Bernstein analyst Craig Moffett, “Sprint CEO Dan Hesse might be forgiven for the temptation to hang a “Mission Accomplished” banner on the aircraft carrier that is Sprint. To his credit, he expressly declined to do so. Still, the company has at last achieved post-paid and total subscriber growth, customer service levels have improved, churn rates have been brought under control, and revenues were up.”

At $4.41, Sprint shares are up 1.15 percent in early trading as I write this.

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