Mehdi Hosseini, Friedman Billings: Hoseini repeated his Market Perform rating on the stock, but cut estimates; he slashes his 2009 view to $2.06 a share, from $3.02. For 2010, he goes to $3.05, from $3.40. Hosseini says the cuts reflect his view that 2009 will bring slower-than-expected demand in both Italy and the U.S. He also thinks ASPs will come under pressure, offsetting the impact of cost-cutting and pressuring gross margin. He also sees further trouble ahead in Spain, noting that some systems and modules have actually been shipped out of Spain and into other geographies. He notes that Spain accounted for 40 to 50 percent of SunPower’s 2008 revenues.

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Oracle’s forecast for the quarter was for revenue to be up 9-12 percent, or 12-15 percent on a constant currency basis; it projected new license growth of 2-12 percent, or 5-15 percent on a constant currency basis.

Hilal thinks the company will be at the low end of guidance on a constant currency basis, and could miss on an as-reported basis.

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Here’s a rundown on Berger’s outlook for production in the next few quarters from key chip companies; what he’s measuring here are wafer starts, or a little more roughly, units:

• Broadcom (BRCM): He sees production down 13 percent in Q4 from Q3, worse than his previous estimate of down eight percent; for Q1 he sees a further 17 percent cut.
• Marvell (MRVL): For Q4, down 18 percent, versus previous estimate of down 13 percent. For Q1, down another 10 percent.
• Texas Instruments (TXN): For Q4, production down 18 percent, no change; with Q1 down another 20 percent.

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Several analysts have followed up the news with comments on what the news means for the state of the industry; here are a few key takeaways:

Mehdi Hosseini, an analyst with Friedman Billings Ramsey, asserted that he expects other solar companies reporting over the next few weeks to similarly miss forward earnings expectations. Hosseini notes that JASO on its post-earnings conference call characterized the current industry dynamic as “complete panic.” He reports that the company sees selling prices in 2009 down at least 20 percent, while margins are coming down even faster than that. Hosseini notes that the company is trying to renegotiate its poly supply contracts to lower pricing. He also points out that JASO has shut 40 percent of its production lines for now.

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Perhaps, as Friedman Billings Ramsey analyst Craig Berger claims, Apple’s fiscal first-quarter iPhone production will be more than 40 percent lower than production in its third. “We believe Apple is a good proxy for broader consumer demand given that it has the hottest, sleekest, most desirable products available today,” Berger wrote in a note to clients Monday. “That the firm’s iPhone production plans are being revised lower suggests that the global macroecomomic weakness is impacting even high-end consumers, those that are more likely to buy Apple’s expensive gadgets, and that no market segment will be spared in this global downturn.”

Perhaps the weakening economy will prevent Apple from producing another big quarter.

Or, perhaps, Craig Berger is full of it. Certainly, his track record on Apple production forecasts suggests that might be the case. As Andy Zaky ably points out over at Bullish Cross that Berger isn’t always on-point in these situations (click on chart below).

Earlier this year, for example, Berger claimed Apple had cut its second-quarter iPhone build plans by 60 percent. He also said the company had cut its build forecast for MacBooks by 50 percent. But when Apple reported Q2 earnings, iPhone sales were off by just 26 percent. And MacBook sales hadn’t fallen at all. In fact, they’d risen 6.8 percent.

So what are we to make of Berger’s prediction of a 40 percent production rate cut for the iPhone? Well, if anything it should be taken with a grain of salt, if not an entire salt flat. … As Zaky acerbically notes, “Craig Berger’s rantings on production rates have an almost zero correlation when it comes to actual sales.”

“We believe that the sector offers strong fundamental growth, reasonable valuation, and considerable potential outperformance,” Terry writes. “As consumers continue to shift more of their time and spending online, advertisers are following. Although this trend has been going on for years, we believe that in the current economic environment, new business models and technologies, as well as advertisers’ success in the medium, are likely to accelerate this shift of ad dollars online.”

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