Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster reports that NPD’s data, which counts only U.S. sales, implies that Mac sales for the March quarter ended down 5 percent year over year. And if that proves to be the case, Apple could potentially miss its Mac number when it posts financials next Tuesday. Caveat: Last quarter, Apple beat NPD data by 14 percentage points — something to keep in mind while mulling Munster’s assertion.

Anyway … the Street is looking for worldwide Mac sales of 4.5 million; Munster figures Apple likely sold less than that — somewhere between 4.1 million to 4.4 million, with sales slowed by a core MacBook Pro and iMac lineup that hasn’t been refreshed in more than a year. Those two product lines alone likely account for about 50 percent of Mac sales, so it’s certainly conceivable that diminishing consumer interest in them might affect Apple’s sales numbers.

But is this really anything to worry about?

Munster himself acknowledges that strong iPhone and iPad sales will more than offset any Mac softness. He still expects the company to beat consensus EPS and revenue estimates and, like many Apple watchers, he sees new Macs headed into the pipeline soon, following on the heels of Intel’s new Ivy Bridge processors. Said Munster, “We believe that MacBook, iMac, and potentially MacBook Air, lines could all be refreshed during the June quarter, which we believe would result in a reacceleration of Mac sales.”

An interesting question, and while it’s far too early for a definitive answer, there are some early indications of which way things are headed.

Research outfit Piper Jaffray recently surveyed a small group of public-school IT managers (18) about their mobile device deployments and found 78 percent to be testing iPads and/or Chromebooks (6 percent said they were testing Android tablets).

That bodes well for Google and Apple both, though perhaps more so for Apple. For while the IT managers surveyed seemed evenly divided over whether the iPad or the Chromebook is the better educational tool (see tables below), their preference may not be the deciding factor in which device is ultimately deployed in their schools.

As in the enterprise world, many schools are considering implementing a “bring your own device” policy as a means of fostering a one-to-one student/device ratio. And if they do, the teen demographic’s fondness for iOS devices may skew things in the iPad’s favor.

“The majority of IT managers believed that ‘bring your own device’ policies would be the major driver in achieving a one-to-one ratio,” says Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster. “Given iPad’s current majority market share among teens (70 percent of teen tablet owners owned iPads), we expect iPad would be the device most likely desired by students in choosing their own devices. … Ultimately we expect school ‘bring your own device’ policies paired with the popularity of iPads among teens will lead to the iPad owning the educational tablet market.”

This according to Piper Jaffray’s 23rd semiannual survey of 5,600 American teenagers, which finds continued, rising interest for the device in the high-school demographic. The percentage of teens who own an iPhone rose to 34 percent from 23 percent in fall 2011, and 17 percent in spring 2011. Meanwhile, the percentage of those who hope to own one rose from 38 percent and 37 percent during the same time periods. The likely driver of those increases: The cheaper iPhone 4 and 3GS.

Good news for Apple, since the teen demographic is a critical component of long-term growth and, as Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster notes, “historically interest in buying an iPhone has correlated to future market share gains among teens.”

Not surprisingly, tablet interest in the teen market is also on the rise, with much of it focused on the iPad. Thirty-four percent of the teens Piper surveyed said they already own a tablet, up from 29 percent from fall 2011. Of those, 70 percent had iPads, 19 percent some model of Android tablet and 11 percent a Kindle Fire.

Among teens who don’t yet own tablets, 19 percent said they planned to buy one in the next six months, with 80 percent of that group saying they planned to buy an iPad. And though there was a 3 percent decline in respondents interested in purchasing tablets between fall 2011 and spring 2012, the fact that most of them are leaning toward the iPad reveals a clear trend here. So again, good news for Apple, as Munster notes.

“We expect Apple to remain popular with younger users, which we believe could help establish a continually growing base of loyal users,” said Munster. “We believe that as Apple continues to discount prior model iPads (i.e. iPad 2 to $399) and eventually releases a smaller screen, lower priced iPad, iPad ownership will continue to rise.”

And something co-founder Steve Jobs famously refused for years to give it.

Asked in 2010 why Apple has never paid a dividend and rarely bought back its own stock, Jobs said dividends do not increase the value of the company for shareholders. “Our goal is to increase enterprise value,” he said. “Which would you rather have us be? A company with our stock price, and $40 billion in the bank? Or a company with our stock price and no cash in the bank?”

To Jobs, the answer to that question was clear, and the reason Apple last paid a dividend in 1995 — the year prior to his return to the company.

So why pay a dividend now? And what does the decision to do so say about Apple? Is it undergoing some great philosophical shift?

Consensus among the analysts and insiders is that it’s not. The company’s attitude toward what is today the largest cash balance in the tech industry isn’t particularly new, it’s just one that wasn’t ever expressed while Jobs was alive.

As one analyst quipped, “The driving reason for the dividend? Tim Cook actually meets with and listens to investors and shareholders. Steve Jobs did not.”

That’s an observation I’ve heard time and again this morning.

“Apple would have never paid a dividend under Jobs,” Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster told AllThingsD this morning. “Apple paying a dividend is evidence that the company is making its own decisions, not just blindly following in Jobs’s footsteps.”

So Apple under Cook is something of a different animal than it was under Jobs. And as much as Cook insists that he is keen on preserving Apple’s culture, he’s not unwilling to put his own mark on it. Particularly around a long-simmering issue like this, which has become a point of exasperation for many investors.

As Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi told AllThingsD this morning, “I think the cash balance was overwhelming and the rationale for retaining it was becoming increasingly incomprehensible, particularly given the company’s capital requirements and the prevailing yield on cash.”

Ultimately, dividends are not just for slower-growth companies. They’re for companies like Apple that are still rich with ideas and poised for more growth. As Cook said this morning, “We can do this and still maintain a war chest and plenty of money to run our business. This will not close any doors for us.”

In the end, the biggest message given by Apple’s issuance of a dividend: “Under new management.”

The Macintosh TV

“In January we spoke with a major TV component supplier who has been contacted by Apple regarding various capabilities of their television display components,” Munster wrote in a note to clients today. “We see this as continued evidence that Apple is exploring production of a television. This latest data point follows January 2011 meetings in Asia that led us to believe Apple was investing in manufacturing facilities for LCD displays ranging from 3.5″ mobile displays to 50″ television displays.”

So Apple’s reportedly been shopping around for parts that might be used in TVs.

Not the hardest of evidence that the company will actually produce one. That said, the signs do appear to be adding up. Over the past few months we’ve heard chatter claiming Apple televisions have been prototyped and that Sharp has been retooling a production line at one of its factories to produce the modified amorphous TFT LCD displays that will grace them.

If that is the case, it’s entirely possible that the TV market will be the next one Apple attempts to reinvent. And if it pulls it off, the rewards could be great. Some say Apple stands to gain an incremental $50 billion to $100 billion in market cap if it produces a compelling HDTV, one that not only trumps the competition but steals market share away from it, as the iPhone has from incumbent smartphone producers.

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster surveyed a few Apple stores on Black Friday and found that iPad sales per hour were 68 percent higher than they were a year ago. On average, the stores Munster visited sold about 14.8 iPads per hour, up from 8.8 iPads per hour last year, more than enough to support the analyst’s projection of 13.5 million iPads sold in the December quarter.

iPad sell-through remains “strong,” said Munster.

Over at Deutsche Bank, analyst Chris Whitmore reached a similar conclusion after checking in with more than 100 Apple retail stores and another 100 or so carrier outlets and big-box retailers. “iPad demand continues to be robust, driven by significant consumer interest in the device,” Whitmore said in a research note to clients. “Our checks indicated the iPad was a popular item on many consumers’ shopping lists over the weekend.”

While demand for the iPad was high across all models, Whitmore found it to be highest for the 32GB version with 3G, which evidently hits the sweet spot storage-wise. Also in high demand, AT&T 3G models which, unlike their Verizon counterparts, can be used internationally.

Like Munster, Whitmore came away from his Black Friday checks convinced iPad sales are tracking roughly in line with his estimate: 14 million for the December quarter.

Seems those iPad concerns were a bit overblown.

The machine is on a real growth tear. New metrics from research outfit NPD show Mac sales up 19 percent year over year in October.

That upward trend bodes well for the company as it heads into the holiday shopping season. Indeed, extrapolating from those numbers, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster figures Apple will sell between 5.1 million and 5.3 million Macs during the December quarter, accounting for about 18 percent of overall revenue for the period.

That’s year-over-year growth of between 23 percent and 28 percent. Impressive. More so, considering the state of the PC market, which these days is suffering from slowing sales growth.

It will, of course, be Tim Cook’s first earnings call as CEO since taking over the job on a permanent basis this summer. There will naturally be questions from analysts about any changes in direction, however slight, that may result following the death of founder and Chairman Steve Jobs. Don’t expect much in the way of changes, nor in meaningful answers to questions about them. As much as Jobs is missed, Apple is in the strongest business shape it has ever been in, and shows no sign of slowing down.

Today’s earnings report, which will also be the final report of Apple’s 2011 fiscal year, will only make that fact more plain. Unless something went terribly wrong — and there is no sign that anything did — it will be Apple’s first year with sales north of $100 billion.

The consensus of Wall Street analysts says that Apple will report sales of $29.45 billion, which would be an improvement of more than $9 billion and 45 percent over the same quarter last year, and profits of $7.28 per share, which would be a 57 percent jump.

But as is always the case with Apple, the consensus has a way of being conservative. Sales of the iPhone 4, despite the buzz leading up to the release of the iPhone 4S, remained strong, said Gene Munster, analyst with Piper Jaffray, in a note to clients yesterday.

Munster expects Apple to report sales of 22 million iPhones in the quarter, slightly more aggressive than some estimates, by buyside analysts, of 20 million. “We believe sales of earlier iPhone models, like the iPhone 3GS, held up through the September quarter, which suggests global customers also remained interested in the iPhone 4 head of the anticipated update,” Munster wrote. The iPhone accounts for 46 percent of Apple’s sales.

That means good things for Apple’s gross profit margin, as components used in the older models became cheaper. Munster expects a gross margin of 39 percent, beating Apple’s previous guidance of 38 percent. However, if Apple maintains the gross margin it reported last quarter — 41.7 percent — it implies a much higher overall profit of $7.68 a share, Munster said.

On the iPad front, which accounts for 20 percent of Apple’s business, Munster expects Apple to report sales of 10 million units, which he admits may not seem like meaningful growth versus the year-ago quarter. But remember that last year’s September quarter came right on the heels of the launch of the iPad 1 2. The comparisons will be tough.

And don’t forget the Mac, another 20 percent of revenue. Market research firm NPD reported Mac sales up 20 percent in each of the three months of the quarter. Munster says the street consensus implies Mac unit sales growth of 16 percent, but the NPD numbers imply growth closer to 20 percent.

Finally, all eyes will be on Apple’s guidance for the holiday quarter just ahead. Apple will likely give its usual conservative guidance, which has averaged about 2 percent below the Street on revenue and 10 percent below the street on per-share earnings. But it typically beats the Street’s estimates by an average of 9 percent and 28 percent, respectively. Right now, the consensus view on the December quarter calls for sales of $36.6 billion and profits of $8.98. Plan accordingly.

Munster rates Apple shares “overweight” — the equivalent of “buy” — with a price target of $607. Yesterday, Apple shares hit another lifetime high of $426.70, and closed at $419.99. The shares are up about 27 percent this year.

Update: I corrected my reference above to the timing of the iPad 2 release.

Short answer: Lots.

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster estimates that 18.8 million iPhone 3GS users will likely upgrade to the iPhone 4S, accounting for about 18 percent of Apple’s fiscal 2012 iPhone sales.

“We believe the number of iPhone 3GS units sold before the launch of the iPhone 4 serves as a conservative proxy for iPhone users that will likely upgrade to the iPhone 4S,” says Munster. “Note that our Aug-11 survey shows that among existing iPhone users, 94 percent expect to buy another iPhone as their next phone; Apple has built an annuity of smartphone buyers.”

Indeed. And Munster’s estimate includes only 3GS upgraders. It doesn’t account for existing users of the original iPhone, iPhone 3G, or even the iPhone 4. In other words, it’s likely that upgrade sales will be even greater than Munster predicts.

We’ll see. Currently, Munster is calling for 25 million iPhone units to be shipped in calendar Q4 of this year, a number he has already conceded may be too low.

Today it is among the most valuable companies in the world, riding high on record sales of a string of hit products that have redefined personal technology and our expectations for it. In just the first three quarters of this year alone, Apple has already racked up record sales of nearly $80 billion. By year’s end they’ll likely top $100 billion.

Something to keep in mind today as the market reacts to the sad news of Jobs’s passing.

But amid the inevitable volatility in Apple’s share price the next few days, remember this: Jobs’s absence will likely have no measurable impact on Apple’s financial performance for the foreseeable future, if ever. But his legacy of innovation will — and for years to come. As I’ve written before, it’s Apple, not the iPod, iPhone or iPad, that is Jobs’s masterpiece product, a company designed to set the bar for the industry, regardless of whether he’s leading it or not.

As Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster wrote in a note to clients late Wednesday, “We believe the ethos of Steve Jobs, his vision and his work ethic, will forever drive Apple. As such, we reiterate, without hesitation, our Overweight rating on [the company's shares]. We believe Tim Cook is the ideal candidate to continue the work of the irreplaceable Steve Jobs. … While there may be concerns among investors as to whether or not Cook can continue Jobs’ streak of innovation, we believe there is no better candidate to lead the company Jobs co-founded. And in many ways, it will be Jobs and his deeply rooted vision that will always guide Apple and its leaders.”

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“The company did not announce a redesigned iPhone, which many were calling an iPhone 5 and which may disappoint some investors,” Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster wrote in a research note to clients. “That said, we believe the iPhone 4S will meet or exceed unit expectations, as it represents the first iPhone launch at two major US carriers (Verizon and Sprint) along with KDDI in Japan.”

J.P. Morgan analyst Mark Moskowitz also bemoaned the lack of the so-called iPhone 5.

“We had expected the company to announce two new devices, an iPhone 5 and a 4-plus,” he said in a note to clients. “We are disappointed that Apple did not introduce a thinner form factor, but we see the feature set improvements in the iPhone 4S and the broader pricing strategy as positives.”

Moskowitz was particularly impressed with Siri, Apple’s new virtual assistant, and views it as an advantage that will raise the 4S above the pack of rivals that perpetually pursue it. “Once investors dig into Siri, we think its addition will overshadow the lack of full iPhone form factor change,” he said.

Goldman Sachs analyst Bill Shope took a similar view, arguing that the big news of the day was really the software that was on display. “Siri represents a more significant platform enhancement than we anticipated,” he said in a research note. “We believe this, coupled with iCloud and iOS 5, suggests today’s event represented a critical positive inflection point for the iOS platform overall.”

UBS analyst Maynard Um echoed Shope and went him one better, suggesting that the addition of Siri to the iPhone is one of those watershed innovations that will again change the way we interact with our mobile devices. “While some may be disappointed by largely unchanged design, Apple used its owned ecosystem to embed the Siri personal assistant throughout its OS to change the way we interact with phones. We believe Siri, iCloud & other iOS 5 features will continue to drive the next wave of demand.”

And in all likelihood they will. Sure, Apple did not meet some of the market’s hardware expectations. But what the market sometimes forgets is that it is software that truly differentiates Apple from its rivals.

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Again.

According to the latest metrics from NPD, Mac sales were up 22 percent in July and August, putting Apple on track to sell between 4.4 million and 4.6 million Macs in the September quarter.

That’s a new record.

Clearly, the July introduction of the company’s OS X Lion operating system and refreshes of the MacBook Air and Mac Mini have done much to juice demand for new Mac hardware, as Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster observed in a note to clients.

“We believe that Mac sales in the month of August benefited from new Mac products,” Munster wrote in a research note to clients. “On July 20th Apple released OS X Lion, a $29 download also included in all Mac sales on or after 7/20. Since the Lion release timing was known, Apple likely benefited from pent-up demand for Macs, which also explains soft NPD data in the month of June (+7% y/y). The company also released updated versions of the MacBook Air and the Mac mini on 7/20, which provided a tailwind for Mac sales in the month of Aug.”

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster has modeled Apple’s performance for the 2013 calendar year and come up with some very large numbers indeed: Earnings per share of $40.50 on $164 billion in revenue.

That’s about 10 percent above Street consensus on EPS and 8 percent over consensus on revenue. But Munster has his reasons — specifically soaring demand for the iPhone and iPad. He figures that unit growth rates for both devices will be so strong over the next two years that Apple will end up selling 143 million iPhones and 68 million iPads in 2013. What’s more, it will sell them at sales prices far above the industry average for competing devices.

“We believe the markets for smartphones and tablets are big enough to support this growth, even if Apple’s ASP is significantly higher than its competition,” said Munster. “Consumers have demonstrated their willingness to pay up for the best technology, and we expect this trend to continue.”

And if it does, the iPhone and iPad will account for 49 percent and 21 percent of Apple’s revenue for calendar 2013 by Munster’s calculations.

Cook’s operational acumen has driven Apple’s expansion since he first joined it. As Chairman Steve Jobs once told Businessweek, “I couldn’t find anyone internally or elsewhere that knew as much as I did — so I did that job for nine months before I found someone I saw eye to eye with, and that was Tim Cook. After Tim came on board, we basically reinvented the logistics of the PC business.”

Given the importance and increasing complexity of Apple’s long-term strategic supply chain investments, can Apple manage without a COO for long?

In other words, does Tim Cook need his own Tim Cook?

“There will be a point in time where there will be a need for a successor to Tim Cook,” Sterne Agee analyst Shaw Wu says. “Obviously, that point isn’t now but could be in a few years.”

The most likely candidate for the job: Jeff Williams, who was promoted to senior VP of operations last summer. An Apple veteran, Williams has worked closely with Cook for over a decade and overseen some of the company’s major supply chain deals. It was Williams, for example, who orchestrated Apple’s massive flash memory purchase in 2005, one that effectively cornered the market for NAND flash and left rivals scrambling for supply. He’s also credited with leading worldwide operations for the iPhone since the device first launched.

So if someone is to succeed Cook as COO, Williams would appear to be the guy.

“My take is Apple does need a COO, and effectively has one with Jeff Williams,” says Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster. “He has been VP of operations since 2004, and was promoted to Senior VP a year ago. Whether or not Jeff gets the COO title is hard to say.”

Indeed. The COO is traditionally viewed as CEO in waiting. Is Williams CEO material? That’s impossible to say at this point and it’s premature to speculate. But it’s worth noting if only because it might mean that Apple will keep the COO slot open until Williams is properly groomed for it, or the company finds a candidate it feels is more worthy.

“COOs serve two roles — to broaden a potential CEO successor and/or to divide up the administrative responsibilities in an organization,” says Harvard Business School professor David Yoffie. “It is too early for the former, and Tim Cook will have to decide if the latter is necessary. Many big companies do not have COOs, and I suspect that Apple will not appoint a new COO in the near term.”

Apple spokesperson Katie Cotton stopped short of denying further organization changes down the road, but she did insist the transition will be smooth.

“Apple is not going to change,” Cotton told AllThingsD. “Apple is a company and culture unlike any other in the world and we are going to stay true to that. We are going to continue to make the best products in the world that delight our customers and make our employees incredibly proud of what they do.”

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As J.P. Morgan analyst Mark Moskowitz wrote in a note to clients Wednesday evening, Apple’s deep executive bench is very much up to the tasks ahead of it.

“While the day-to-day contributions of Mr. Jobs will be missed, we believe that the level of creativity and intelligence assembled throughout the management team and legion of Apple employees can sustain the Apple model and its industry leadership,” Moskowitz said. “We do not expect too much to change within the organization. In our view, the far-reaching successes of the iPhone, iPad, iPod, and MacBook Air reflect the work of many, not one. We have a favorable view of new CEO Tim Cook. He has a proven track record. As COO, Mr. Cook has been integral to driving the company’s unprecedented revenue and earnings growth phase, limiting disruptions to the operations. We expect his knowledge of Apple and its rigid product cycles, supply chain, and partners to result in little change to the go-to-market strategy.”

Barclays analyst Ben Reitzes echoed those sentiments, remarking on Cook’s proven track record. “While we do not believe that Steve Jobs is replaceable, it is worth noting that Tim Cook is a proven executive who can handle the pressure and knows how to run the inner workings of Apple in Jobs’ shadow,” he said. “… While the economy remains a concern for all companies in our sector, we anticipate Apple to gain substantial share in smartphone and PC-related segments as the entire company executes its strategy.”

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster described Cook as “the ideal candidate” to assume the role of the irreplaceable Steve Jobs. “Cook is capable of running Apple, but his rare combination of extreme humility and insatiable motivation make him uniquely suited to assume Jobs’ role as CEO and carry on his work with a peerless executive team,” Munster said. “While there may be concerns among investors as to whether or not Cook can continue Jobs’ streak of innovation, we believe there is no better candidate to assume the role. And in many ways, it will be Jobs and his deeply rooted vision that will always guide Apple and its leaders.”

And finally UBS analyst Maynard Um said he really doesn’t expect things at Apple to change much at all with Jobs no longer CEO. “We expect there to be no transition issues as Cook had been running daily operations as interim-CEO,” he said in a note to clients. “From a longer-term perspective, we believe Apple’s strategy is well laid out and believe Cook and his management team will continue to execute.”

And in all likelihood, that’s exactly what will happen. Because in the end Apple has one of the deepest and strongest managerial benches in the business, and it has been crafted by one of the most innovative minds in the industry. As I wrote back in 2009, “Yes, Jobs’s sensibility pervades Apple’s culture and its products, but that culture and those products are not tethered to his health or day-to-day presence at the company. And Apple’s deep executive bench is more than capable of running it — and running it well — in his absence.”

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Using some back-of-the-napkin math and iPhone sales at Verizon as a baseline, Munster figures Apple could sell an additional six million iPhones in 2012 via Sprint.

“We believe in the first two quarters, Verizon sold 4.6 million iPhones,” Munster said in a note to clients. “We are modeling for Verizon to sell 12 million iPhones in the first year of having the iPhone. In other words, we expect 11 percent of phones sold at Verizon will be iPhones (~CY11). If 11 percent of Sprint’s phones sold in CY12 were iPhones, that would add ~6 million iPhones to our estimate, increasing our overall CY12 iPhone unit estimate by 5 percent, from 111 million to 117 million.”

That’s if the iPhone does show up at Sprint this fall; at this point the consensus is that it’s likely.

As Wedge Partners analyst Brian Blair explains, it’s been widely thought that once AT&T’s iPhone exclusivity deal with Apple expired and Verizon began selling the device, Sprint would follow with its own CDMA iPhone offering.

“It does appear that a 2011 launch of the iPhone 5 at Sprint will actually happen,” Blair told AllThingsD. “The key is the company’s relatively recent support of CDMA at Verizon. So now that the company is supporting both GSM and CDMA and no longer has an exclusive deal with AT&T, there is no barrier to adding Sprint as a distribution channel, and addressing Sprint’s 50-plus million subscriber base would provide a nice boost to quarterly shipments. My view is that iPhone availability at the carrier is likely to be announced late September when Apple announces the new handset, followed by early October availability. For years, Apple has had a multicarrier strategy in place in nearly every other part of the world outside of the U.S., and now the U.S. is catching up.”

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According to the latest metrics from NPD, domestic Mac sales for the first month of the September quarter were up 26 percent year over year, buoyed by new hardware and an eagerly anticipated update to Apple’s OS X. That’s more than six times the growth of the broader PC market.

And if it continues, Apple will likely meet consensus estimates of 4.5 million total Mac sales for the current quarter, said Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster. “We believe Mac sales benefited from the 7/20 launch of OS X Lion along with refreshed MacBook Airs and Mac minis,” Munster explained in a note to clients. “But these tailwinds will fade throughout the September quarter and year-over-year compares get slightly tougher in the last two months of the quarter.”

The softening PC market seems to have had little to no effect on Mac sales. Nor is it likely to in the future, given current growth trends. As I’ve noted here before, Mac sales have outpaced the broader PC market for 21 consecutive quarters now. And there’s little to suggest that streak is coming to an end any time soon.

Said Barclays analyst Ben Reitzes, “We believe Apple will continue to gain share in Macs over the long term even as the iPad grows. Given the data and our checks, our estimate for Mac growth of 18 percent year-over-year for Apple’s C3Q, may turn out to be conservative even though the global economy appears to be slowing quite a bit.”

If the company exceeds Wall Street estimates by an average margin, we’ll likely see earnings per share of $6.69 on revenue of $25.7 billion, a healthy beat over the $5.71 on $24.7 billion, says Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster. This during a quarter in which iPad 2 supplies were constrained and reports of a fall iPhone 5 launch tempered sales of the device.

Which is something to keep in mind as we look ahead to the September quarter.

If Apple can pull off the kind of financials Munster predicts for the June quarter under less than optimal conditions, what sort of numbers will it turn in for September, which will reflect healthy iPad supplies, the back-to-school season and, in all likelihood, new iPhone hardware?

Big ones.

“Looking ahead to the Sept. quarter, we expect a spike in iPhone sales to 21 million units with new hardware near the end of the quarter,” says Munster, in a note to clients. “The next-gen iPhone will be the first new iPhone launched at Verizon, and possibly Sprint, T-Mobile and international carriers as well, which could conservatively add 6 million units to our calendar 2012 iPhone estimate, taking growth from 35 percent to 43 percent.”

Add to that Mac and iPad sales tracking in line with expectations and you get a hell of a September quarter. Munster’s prediction: Apple will guide for $5.73 per share on revenue of $27.08 billion and then report earnings of $6.37 on $27.64 billion.

According to estimates by Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, iOS app downloads will spike 61 percent in calendar 2011, while the average selling price of paid apps will rise 14 percent year over year.

“Smartphone users are showing an increasing appetite to use apps to add features to their phones and iOS has the leading app ecosystem,” Munster wrote in a note to clients. “Our App Store model shows that paid app ASPs appear to be rebounding in CY11. … After the initial race to the bottom in App Store pricing, we are seeing users pay up to add features and games to their iOS devices.”

Great news for Apple, which stands to collect an estimated $538 million in revenue from the App Store in calendar 2011. iPhone, iPad, and iPod touch users are now downloading over 32.3 million apps per day, says Munster — nearly triple the 11.9 million daily rate of iTunes tracks downloaded.

Below, Munster’s App Store model.

In January, U.S. Mac sales were up 20 percent year-over-year. In February they were up 12 percent.

And in March?

Up 47 percent, year-over-year.

That’s an average increase of 27 percent for the quarter. An impressive surge–more so considering that growth slowed in February ahead of the debut of the new Thunderbolt-equipped MacBook Pro line. March was the first full month in which those new machines were available and, according to Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, sales are tracking ahead of the Street’s expectations for 3.6 million Macs sold in the quarter.

As I said yesterday, expect Apple’s second-quarter earnings report Wednesday to be another barn burner.

As Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster reminds us in a research note today, the company often invests massive sums of money to secure component supplies and capacity. Indeed, it spent $3.9 billion earlier this year to do just that. This doesn’t mean it won’t suffer component delays that may limit supplies of some of its products. But it likely means they’ll be mitigated by those long-term supply deals.

“Currently and in the past, Apple buys key components with large pre-payments that guarantee supply and pricing,” Munster writes. “This strategy has proven to be an effective way for Apple to leverage its balance sheet and its position as one of the largest buyers of many of the components it uses; moreover, this strategy may prove particularly helpful if supply is limited and pricing increases. Finally, we believe Apple buys futures on important components, which will help offset near-term pricing swings. Our conclusion is that Apple is well positioned to suffer proportionally less than its competitors.”

Pacific Crest analyst Andy Hargreaves took a similar view in a note of his own. “Supply-chain investments, cash balance and tier-1 status should help Apple retain access to key components,” he said today. “Apple will be adversely affected if damage to facilities and rolling blackouts impair supply of key components for an extended time. However, we believe Apple’s investments in the supply chain, its status as a tier-1 vendor, and its ability to pay in cash will help it retain preferential access to components in the near term.”

Sony Ericsson

Wireless handset maker Sony-Ericsson just issued a statement on the extent of disruptions it expects.

“Although the full impact of the current situation on our business will take additional time to assess, Sony Ericsson anticipates disruption to its supply chain operations,” the company said in a statement. “As part of our business continuity plan, we are in contact with all our key suppliers in the region and we are identifying the possible relocation of certain component manufacturing, and looking at secondary sources of supply.”

Intel and Qualcomm

Some analysts had speculated that plant shutdowns by Mitsubishi Gas would slow chip production by cutting supplies of certain chemicals used in the chip making process. Both Intel and Qualcomm told Bloomberg News that they’re careful to avoid situations where important supplies come from only one source.

Texas Instruments

Wireless chipmaker Texas Instruments said on Monday that a plant in Miho, about 40 miles northeast of Tokyo, had suffered “substantial damage” and that it may be July before the plant is back up to full production. The plant is responsible for about 10 percent of TI’s overall production, and about a third of its capacity is devoted to its Digital Light Processor, and the rest to analog components. Shares of Diodes, Inc., a TI rival, jumped when analyst John Vinh of Collins Stewart said the company stood to benefit from TI’s troubles.

Oracle

Analyst Derrick Wood of Susquehanna Financial said in a note to clients that fears about Oracle’s exposure to the Japanese market, which has driven the shares down in recent days, are probably overblown. Even though Japan accounts for about five percent of Oracle’s revenue, he said, fears are “likely overdone.” Most of Oracle’s revenue from Japan comes from recurring maintenance fees, so the risk of a serious hit to sales is minimal.

Raw Materials

The Wall Street Journal notes that Japan supplies about 90 percent of the world’s bismaleimide triazine, an important material used in making printed circuit boards for wireless phones. Japan also supplies much of the world’s silicon wafers that are used to make chips.

(Map via Wikimedia Commons)

By weekend’s end, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster and his team were unable to find a single iPad 2 available for walk-in purchase at any of the retail outlets they called (Apple Stores, Best Buy, etc.), leading Munster to conclude that Apple likely sold as many iPad 2s in its first day at market as its predecessor sold in its first week.

“Given extended lead times at the online store and sold out retail stores, we believe iPad 2 sales exceeded Apple’s initial expectations,” Munster said in a research note Sunday. “We continue to believe that Apple sold between 400,000 and 500,000 iPad 2s over the weekend (vs. 300,000 original iPads over launch weekend). And we note that the weekend number for iPad 2 is essentially a launch day total because stock was so quickly depleted and not replenished over the weekend. iPads are sold out across virtually all channels.”

Munster figures Apple will sell 5.5 million iPads this quarter, easily topping the 3.27 million the company sold during the original iPad’s debut quarter last year. And he describes that estimate as “conservative.” More bullish predictions–the one offered up by Ticonderoga Securities analyst Brian White last Friday, for example–put first weekend iPad 2 sales at one million. “Last year, Apple sold over 300,000 iPads during the first day of availability on April 3 and 1 million iPads were sold in the first 28 days,” White explained. “This year, we would not be surprised if Apple sells up to 1 million units of the iPad 2 over the weekend, while the iPad 2 launch begins in 26 other countries on March 25. This takes into account a broader distribution network versus the iPad 1 launch, upgrades to iPad 2 and new tablet buyers coming into the market.”

Apple hasn’t yet released early sales figures for the iPad 2, though I imagine we’ll see some soon–particularly if they’re as impressive as they clearly seem to be. In the meantime, the company is saying only that “demand for the next generation iPad 2 has been amazing.”

[Image credit: Boston Tweet]

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster figures that if the iPhone continues to grow apace with the broader smartphone market at a rate of roughly 35 percent in calendar 2011, Apple could conceivably sell over 200 million iPhones in 2015.

Today, Apple’s addressable market is about 1.7 billion subscribers thanks to distribution deals with a multitude of carriers worldwide. And according to Munster, there’s further upside still. “We believe Apple still has meaningful opportunity remaining to add to its addressable subscriber base,” he wrote in a note to clients. “The recently added Verizon has over 90 million subs, and with the launch of the CDMA iPhone, Apple could add China Telecom (also 90 million subs) and Indian carrier Reliance (110 million subs). We believe Apple could add China Telecom and/or Reliance to its list of carrier partners in CY11.”

In other words, though Apple’s current carrier agreements give it access to 1.7 billion subscribers, it’s still just beginning to tap into a number of critical markets. For evidence of this, one need only look back to Apple’s last earnings report. iPhone sales in Asia more than doubled in Q1. Revenue from China was a staggering $2.6 billion, and according to COO Tim Cook, Apple stores in the country were among the company’s highest traffic and revenue stores in the world.

As Oppenheimer analyst Yair Reiner said in a note raising his target price on the company’s shares to $425, “It’s no surprise when Apple tops expectations, but it’s fairly rare to see it trounce Street’s targets on almost every line. Bottom line: big as Apple is, it shows no sign of slowing, not with the Verizon iPhone launching in 2Q11 and China growth accelerating to 400% year-over-year.”

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster raised his price target to $483 from $438, observing in a research note that this quarter was the first in three years in which Apple issued EPS guidance above Street consensus (10 percent ahead of the Street). “Apple’s vision for itself as a mobile device company has come to fruition,” he said. “[The company] guided the March quarter more aggressively than it typically guides the out quarter relative to the Street. We see this as sign that it is bullish on the prospect of the iPhone at Verizon.”

At Deutsche Bank, Chris Whitmore slapped a price target of $440 on AAPL. “Apple continues to show impressive growth despite its size and is well positioned to benefit from the confluence of three major product cycles, namely: iPad, Macs and iPhone,” he told clients. “These product cycles coupled with greater geographic expansion (Verizon iPhone, iPad 2, iPhone 5, China expansion, Carrier deals) increases our confidence in AAPL’s ability to continue to outperform.”

At Barclays, Ben Reitzes raised his target to $450 from $420 to account for higher unit sales across Apple’s product portfolio. His take on Q1: “This very strong quarterly report left no holes to punch in the fundamental story. We believe the above-consensus revenue and EPS guidance and new products to come bring potential for further upside. We continue to believe the company is in very capable hands with COO Tim Cook and the rest of the team.”

Raising his price target to $450 from $430, Goldman Sachs analyst Bill Shope said essentially the same thing. “While the news of Steve Jobs’ medical leave may continue to add some headwinds to the share price momentum in the near-term, we continue to believe improving underlying fundamentals and the strength of Apple’s overall management team will counter this uncertainty. In addition to the strength of the December quarter and the recent Verizon iPhone release, we believe the next-gen iPad launch and the June iPhone refresh will serve as critical catalysts in the first half of 2011.”

UBS analyst Maynard Um ratcheted his price target up to $465 from $415, predicting what “could be the largest pre-order & sales ever experienced by Verizon Wireless for the iPhone” and continued success for the iPad. Said Um, “Though there has been increasing concern with regard to ramping competition, we see Apple’s ecosystem and ease of use as offering a more compelling value proposition than its competitors today and expect its tablet market share to more closely match its iPod market share in the mp3 player market rather than its share in the more fragmented smartphone market.”

And, finally, there was Ticonderoga’s Brian White, who took a “F@&k Everything, We’re Doing Five Blades” approach and raised his target price to a staggering $550. That’s about 60 percent higher than the price Apple shares have been trading at recently, a target that if the company were to hit, would value it at $506.6 billion. Said White, “Despite Monday’s news regarding Steve Jobs’s medical leave of absence, we believe it will be difficult to keep Apple’s stock from reaching new highs given the much stronger than expected quarter and outlook reported by the company.”

Bullish, or another word with a lot of the same letters? Hard to say. But as you weigh that question, remember this: This is the 33rd consecutive quarter in which Apple has beaten estimates. And this time it beat them by $2 billion.