“We believe a foundry relationship may be forming between Intel and Apple,” Yeung says. “Our discussions with the hardware supply chain tend to support this belief. Intel has previously acknowledged they would be amenable to such a relationship, under the right conditions.”

Among those conditions, says Yeung: An agreement from Apple to someday convert from an ARM-based core for handsets and tablets to x86, which would essentially give Intel Apple’s chip business. That would obviously be a huge win for Intel, as it stands to gain much from Apple’s market share in smartphones and tablets.

But there is one problem. Apple’s A4 and A5 chips are based on an ARM design and Intel isn’t exactly a big fan of ARM. Asked during Intel’s recent investor meeting if the company would consider fabbing chips based on the ARM architecture, CEO Paul Otellini had this to say: “The short answer is ‘No.’”

A foundry partnership with Apple would require a rethinking of that answer, at least for the short term. And Intel certainly could do it. It has the necessary ARM licenses. It just needs to convince Apple to dump Samsung, which currently handles chip fabrication for it, and migrate its mobile devices over to its forthcoming low-power x86-based chips next year.

Yeung uses the 1990-91 downturn as a model for the current period, and concludes that “the risk/reward has now become favorable” for select names in the group. “It is optimal to invest ahead of the report of [the] first quarter of year-over-year GDP growth,” he writes, adding that current valuations are near 1990 troughs.” In a research note this morning, Yeung also contends that “estimate capitulation has occurred.” His bottom line: now is the right time to invest in semi names.

In connection with the call, he upgrades Integrated Device Technology (IDTI), Nvidia (NVDA) and STMicro (STM) to Buy from Hold. Yeung’s colleague, Craig Ellis, who covers specialty semis, raised Fairchild (FCS) to Hold from Sell, and National Semi (NSM) to Buy from Hold.

Read the rest of this post

In a research note this morning, Citigroup’s Glen Yeung provided a review of the credit liabilities of the chip companies Citi has under coverage. He notes that Advance Micro Devices (AMD), Spansion (SPSN), Infineon (IFX) and Qimonda (QI) all have debt coming due in the next 15 months. “In each instance, we point out that an already difficult financial position is compromised by the current credit market,” Yeung noted.

He also noted that AMD, MU and QI also rank among the chip companies with the worst interest coverage ratio.

Read the rest of this post

Last night, SanDisk (SNDK) reported an extremely nasty June quarter earnings report–the Street has responded with a host of downgrades. Meanwhile, this morning, Citigroup chip analyst Glen Yeung cut his ratings on Micron (MU), Qimonda (QI) and Spansion (SPSN) to Hold from Buy. The result is that all of the stocks in the beleaguered sector are getting pummeled. Again.

Read the rest of this post