That’s nowhere near the one million iPhone 3Gs Apple (AAPL) sold in the first three days of the device’s launch in 2008. Nor is it the 13,500-a-day Apple sold during the first 74 days of the original iPhone’s debut. Disappointing to say the least — even if there are already an estimated 1.5 million to two million gray-market iPhones in use in China.

“We view the 5k units as soft,” Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster said in a note to clients this morning. “Using the Jun-07 U.S. launch as a comparison we would have expected about 30k units….We originally thought China would contribute about 1-2m iPhones to our 36m unit estimate for 2010. The launch runrate of about 1,500 units per day would suggest 550k units per year.”

Nonetheless, Munster is maintaining expectations. “We are maintaining our overall numbers,” the analyst notes, “despite the soft China launch based on our belief that other wild cards remain for upside to our iPhone units in CY10 including the rollout to new carriers. We believe that eventually China will emerge as a major market for iPhone sales but it could take a year or two to gain meaningful unit traction as it did in the U.S.”

[Image credit: Mobile163.com]

There is “no sign of the sort of sellout reception that greeted the smart phone at its introduction in other countries,” The Wall Street Journal reported, adding that there were no lines for the iPhone at the Apple store in Beijing, the company’s only location in China.

Sounds like a lackluster launch, and with Apple (AAPL) and China Unicom, the only carrier authorized to sell the device in the country, declining to disclose sales figures, it’s difficult to argue that it was otherwise. It clearly wasn’t the rousing success to which we’ve become accustomed. That said, it probably wasn’t quite the bust it’s been made out to be, either.

Why? Well, consider this: There were launch ceremonies in 30 provinces. To date, we’ve heard anecdotal reports from–as best I can tell–one of them. And while it’s admittedly concerning to learn that a China Unicom store in Beijing sold just 10 iPhones last Saturday, that’s just one store. The device was on sale in many, many others (1000, according to Apple COO Tim Cook) across 30 provinces and 285 Chinese cities in a nation with 710 million mobile-phone subscribers.

Finally, while it’s true that the prices Apple and China Unicom are charging for the iPhone are heady, they’re not quite as bad as we’ve been led to believe. “I think the western media has misconstrued the iPhone pricing in China,” Dan Butterfield, editor of iPhonAsia told me.

“Nine out of 10 reports that I’ve seen have simply repeated the ‘too expensive’ mantra,” Butterfield explained. “They then quote the contract free price point–4,999 yuan ($730) to 6,999 yuan ($1,025) for the iPhone 3GS. They argue that you can buy a gray-market iPhone cheaper and it has WiFi….The truth…the gray-market price is marginally cheaper for those who want to go ‘prepaid.’ But when you examine the full matrix of China Unicom price/plans, you quickly realize that you can save big by going on contract vs. prepaid (pay as you go). There are even four price/plans where your iPhone if free. The iPhone subsidy increases for those who opt for more expensive monthly plans.”

Butterfield elaborates: “Moreover, if you want to access ’3G,’ there is no good carrier option other than China Unicom. You can run at 2G speeds on China Mobile or China Telecom. But neither of these two networks support the chipset in iPhone. China Mobile runs TDSCDMA 3G and China Telecom runs CDMA2000 3G. So you are left with China Unicom’s WCDMA 3G–a world-standard 3G protocol fully supported by iPhone 3G/3GS. Why not go on contract and get a subsidized iPhone that is well below the ‘too expensive’ (contract free) prices that the media is shouting about?”

And in the end, does it even matter? As Butterfield noted, an iPhone sale is an iPhone sale–whether it’s made by a gray-market vendor or an authorized one. And either way, it’s good for Apple.

So was the iPhone’s launch in China really a bust? “Probably not,” said Butterfield. “Was it a rousing success? Probably not. The truth is somewhere in the middle.”

UPDATE: Well what do you know: China Unicom just coughed up some first weekend sales numbers for the iPhone and … well, they’re not much to look. The carrier sold just 5,000.

In any event, those higher prices and the device’s lack of built-in Wi-Fi don’t seem to be as much of a barrier as you might think. And if those issues do end up tempering sales a bit, well, perhaps China Unicom can make them up by poaching iPhone users from rival China Mobile. As iPhonAsia’s Dan Butterfield reported earlier this week, China Unicom is offering an amnesty to users of gray-market iPhones.

“This amnesty program is designed to entice some 1.5 million grey-market iPhone owners in China to sign a contract and pop in a Unicom 3G sim card to take advantage of WCDMA 3G speeds and a variety of new ‘Wo’ 3G services,” Butterfield writes. “The ‘upgrade to 3G’ program is no doubt aimed squarely at the approximate 1,000,000+ iPhones now running on China Mobile’s EDGE 2G network.”

[Image credit: CCID]

How’s September of 2009 sound? Because China Business Network claims that China Unicom and Apple have finally inked a deal that will bring the iPhone to the country around that time.

Manufactured by Foxconn, the Chinese version of the iconic handset will reportedly be identical to the original in all features save one: To comply with the demands of China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Chinese version of the iPhone will lack Wi-Fi support.

Why would people pay retail for a defeatured iPhone when they could buy the real thing on the country’s flourishing gray market? Well, for one thing, Wi-Fi-enabled iPhones are pricey–$695 for the 16GB model, $811 for the 32GB version. For another, they might not perceive Wi-Fi as a necessity, as Dan Butterfield notes over at iPhonAsia.

“While some consumers in China may prefer grey-market iPhones with WiFi, there are many millions that have never used WiFi on their phones and have only experienced 2G speeds,” Butterfield explains. “For this group, WiFi might be a less important feature. They may be more interested in iPhone’s enjoyable user-experience, entertainment value and status.”

Either way, defeatured or not, Apple (AAPL) benefits. “For China’s most tech-savvy power-consumers, WiFi will be important,” says Butterfield. “As a result, I suspect smuggling of WiFi-enabled iPhones will continue to be a profitable enterprise. Apple will be a prime beneficiary as grey-marketers will continue to acquire full-price WiFi enabled iPhones in Hong Kong….

“Using conservative estimates,” Butterfield continues, “I believe Apple can capture a full 2% share of the wireless market in China within the first 12 months of an official iPhone launch. That’s 14 million iPhones and perhaps another 2 million or so coming via grey-market iPhone sales.”

[Image credit: iPhonAsia]

How’s September of 2009 sound? Because China Business Network claims that China Unicom and Apple have finally inked a deal that will bring the iPhone to the country around that time.

Manufactured by Foxconn, the Chinese version of the iconic handset will reportedly be identical to the original in all features save one: To comply with the demands of China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Chinese version of the iPhone will lack Wi-Fi support.

Why would people pay retail for a defeatured iPhone when they could buy the real thing on the country’s flourishing gray market? Well, for one thing, Wi-Fi-enabled iPhones are pricey–$695 for the 16GB model, $811 for the 32GB version. For another, they might not perceive Wi-Fi as a necessity, as Dan Butterfield notes over at iPhonAsia.

“While some consumers in China may prefer grey-market iPhones with WiFi, there are many millions that have never used WiFi on their phones and have only experienced 2G speeds,” Butterfield explains. “For this group, WiFi might be a less important feature. They may be more interested in iPhone’s enjoyable user-experience, entertainment value and status.”

Either way, defeatured or not, Apple (AAPL) benefits. “For China’s most tech-savvy power-consumers, WiFi will be important,” says Butterfield. “As a result, I suspect smuggling of WiFi-enabled iPhones will continue to be a profitable enterprise. Apple will be a prime beneficiary as grey-marketers will continue to acquire full-price WiFi enabled iPhones in Hong Kong….

“Using conservative estimates,” Butterfield continues, “I believe Apple can capture a full 2% share of the wireless market in China within the first 12 months of an official iPhone launch. That’s 14 million iPhones and perhaps another 2 million or so coming via grey-market iPhone sales.”

[Image credit: iPhonAsia]

If Apple is indeed preparing to offer the iPhone 3G in China in partnership with China Unicom, its sales prospects are looking pretty damn good. Bank of America analyst Scott Craig believes the company could claim as much as a fifth of the smartphone market in China when it launches the device there–and in relatively short order. “Our Asia supply chain checks seem to indicate that Apple believes it can achieve an initial penetration rate, least on a sell-in basis, similar to the iPhone launch in the U.S. (about 20 percent),” Craig wrote in a recent research note. “In fact, given our channel checks in Asia, Apple likely believes it can easily meet (and likely exceed) this and/or believes in other scenarios that result in much higher unit sales levels.”

Craig estimates that Apple (AAPL) can sell 1.5 million iPhones in China in calendar 2009, assuming a midyear release and a price-point of $500-$600. He sees the company selling a further 4.6 million in calendar 2010, and 5.8 million in calendar 2011. That’s a hell of a lot of iPhones. But given the strong gray market interest in China already and the fact that China Unicom’s customer base at 150 million is roughly twice the size of AT&T Wireless, it doesn’t seem like all that much of a stretch.

If Apple is indeed preparing to offer the iPhone 3G in China in partnership with China Unicom, its sales prospects are looking pretty damn good. Bank of America analyst Scott Craig believes the company could claim as much as a fifth of the smartphone market in China when it launches the device there–and in relatively short order. “Our Asia supply chain checks seem to indicate that Apple believes it can achieve an initial penetration rate, least on a sell-in basis, similar to the iPhone launch in the U.S. (about 20 percent),” Craig wrote in a recent research note. “In fact, given our channel checks in Asia, Apple likely believes it can easily meet (and likely exceed) this and/or believes in other scenarios that result in much higher unit sales levels.”

Craig estimates that Apple (AAPL) can sell 1.5 million iPhones in China in calendar 2009, assuming a midyear release and a price-point of $500-$600. He sees the company selling a further 4.6 million in calendar 2010, and 5.8 million in calendar 2011. That’s a hell of a lot of iPhones. But given the strong gray market interest in China already and the fact that China Unicom’s customer base at 150 million is roughly twice the size of AT&T Wireless, it doesn’t seem like all that much of a stretch.