So well, in fact, that the tablet market is often characterized as being a two-horse race between the tricked-out Amazon e-reader and Apple’s iPad.

But when it comes down to the numbers, the two companies couldn’t be more different, like comparing Apples to oranges.

Tomorrow, Amazon is expected to report a giant fourth quarter, but it’s guaranteed not to look anything like Apple’s monstrous results reported last week for the same period.

Here’s one data point: For the holiday period, Apple’s gross margin was an impressive 44.7 percent, up from 38.5 percent a year earlier. Meanwhile, analysts are estimating that Amazon’s operating margin will fall to 1.3 percent from 3.6 percent last year.

The specifications of the two tablets can be compared side by side, but a completely different vocabulary is needed to speak intelligently about the two businesses. Simply put, Apple is a hardware maker and Amazon is a retailer.

One has very high margins and the other doesn’t, resulting in two drastically different financial outcomes today. But over time, the idea is for that to change.

Rather than making money from hardware sales, Amazon’s approach to the Fire is to generate incremental sales from other goods and services on the device. Some analysts feel that, over time, that play can create a reliable and recurring revenue stream – and ultimately higher margins.

Tomorrow, Amazon is expected to report sales of $18.3 billion in the fourth quarter, up more than 40 percent from the same period in 2010, according to FactSet Research. Q4 earnings are expected to fall notably to 17 cents a share from 91 cents a year ago.

While revenue growth is impressive, the company’s profitability is being weighed down by losses from the $199 Kindle (which is not quite a break-even proposition), the construction of more warehouses across the globe (17 were added in 2011 for a total of 69) and other investments in infrastructure, like its cloud-computing services and media services, like video, music and e-books.

In contrast, Apple has a rich markup on its iDevices and doesn’t have much of the same overhead as Amazon.

Still, the number of consumers Amazon touches in just one quarter is staggering, and it continues to take share from brick and mortar retailers.

As J.P. Morgan analyst Douglas Anmuth points out in a report, e-commerce grew about 15 percent in Q4 in the U.S. due to strong holiday sales, but he expects Amazon’s growth rate to more than double that to 47 percent year over year.

Anmuth is also bullish that while the fourth quarter could represent a “low point for margins,” Amazon could start seeing an uptick in margin as soon as the first quarter, now that a number of services and some key infrastructure are set in place.

However, don’t expect much insight tomorrow into the company’s long-range plans. The Seattle-based company is typically short on details during its earnings release and call.

If it follows standard protocol, it could provide an update on warehouses being built next year, number of employees and other infrastructure investments, but will likely dodge answers about how many Kindles it shipped during the quarter, or how much Kindle Fire owners are purchasing on the devices.

For now, we’ll have to settle for analyst estimates.

On Sunday evening, Stifel Nicolaus analyst Jordan Rohan raised his estimate for fourth-quarter Fire sales to six million units from five million.

While only on the market for a limited time, that’s still a lot less than Apple, which sold 15.43 million iPads, up 111 percent year over year.

Amazon’s stock dropped 1.65 percent, or $3.22, today to close at $192.15 a share.

Perhaps both.

The Web video site is getting ready to roll out its much discussed subscription offering of $9.95 a month, the Los Angeles Times reports. That jibes with chatter I heard earlier this week, though I’m not yet convinced this is a done deal.

But for argument’s sake, let’s say the report is correct, and the joint venture between GE’s (GE) NBC, Disney’s (DIS) ABC and News Corp.’s (NWS) Fox is about to test a premium plan. If they are doing so at $9.95 a month, it’s possible they’ve ended up with a price that will make both consumers and network TV guys unhappy.

How’s that?

$9.95 a month–$120 a year–is an awful lot to pay for free TV. Industry sources expect the initial plans for “Hulu Plus” to focus on access to a deep catalog from its broadcast TV owners. So instead of just getting the most recent five episodes of, say, “Family Guy”–those will still be available for free on regular Hulu–you’ll get an entire season or more.

If you’re really, really into a couple shows that run on ABC, NBC or Fox, then perhaps a Hulu subscription makes more sense than buying the shows on DVD or downloading them from iTunes.

But if you’re really into “Mad Men” on AMC or “Justified” on FX (which is great), or anything else on cable, Hulu Plus may not do much for you. And at the same time…

$9.95 a month doesn’t go that far once Hulu pays the bills. TV executives expect that Hulu will need to hand over something like $1 to $1.50 per subscriber to each of its network owners. Because that’s the same price the broadcast networks are trying to extract from cable TV operators in “retransmission” fights (see: ABC vs. Cablevision). And that money is worth a whole lot more to them than Hulu subscriptions. Which means the TV guys can’t undercut themselves on the Web.

So Hulu will need to pay out something like $3 to $5.50 off the top for every $10 it brings in. And then it has to shoulder the streaming costs, billing costs, customer service costs, etc.–figure a couple bucks a month more for that stuff. That gets you something like a 30 percent gross margin, which is nothing to brag about.

And what happens if Hulu wants to expand the service and add shows from other providers? It will either have to cut into its thin margin to pay for the programming or raise its rate above $10 a month. Which is already a lot to pay for free TV.

There are a few things Hulu and its owners can do to make Hulu Plus more attractive. Offer the service on more platforms, for one, like Apple’s iPad. And tinker with “windows,” so that Hulu subscribers get to see stuff before the freeloaders.

But moving windows is a good way to confuse/piss off most users, who don’t have any interest in digital/analog TV economics and just want to watch shows.

Also, access to Hulu on the iPad seems a bit less valuable given that Disney’s ABC, one of Hulu’s owners, is already giving away free access to its shows via a very popular app. Industry sources says Hulu CEO Jason Kilar tried desperately to get ABC not to introduce its free app for this very reason.

But while Disney is a minority owner in Hulu, Apple (AAPL) CEO Steve Jobs is the largest individual shareholder in Disney. If you want to connect the dots on that one, you’ll be doing the same thing everyone else in TV Land is doing.

RBC Capital Markets analyst Mike Abramsky expects Apple (AAPL) to sell five million tablets in the product’s first year at market. At a retail price of $600 and a 30 percent gross margin, that would generate about $2.8 billion in revenue and add 30 cents to earnings per share. This assumes the tablet is neither a hit (iPhone) nor a niche product (MacBook Air), but ends up somewhere in between, the scenario Abramsky believes most likely.

As Abramsky cautions, nailing the sweet spot on price is crucial to the device’s success. “Pricing is key….Significant demand exists at $500-799, narrowing at $1000 at which level subsidies may be needed (assuming a mobile data version) for mass acceptance, suggesting both retail and carrier marketing/distribution similar to iPhone.”

The analyst asserts that “An Apple tablet priced at $500-700 unsubsidized ($200-300 subsidized) strikes squarely at heart of the entry level laptop and Netbook markets. Although the tablet would not offer the breadth of features or raw performance of traditional laptops, it would deliver an optimal experience for buyers looking for user-friendly, media-centric computing at entry-level price points.”

As for the effect of the tablet on other Apple products, “The tablet may cannibalize some Mac and iPod Touch buyers (est. 2-5% in scenario analysis), but the lack of Mac OS X compatibility (and emulated Windows) reduces the appeal of the tablet as a Mac replacement for Apple’s traditional premium Mac buyers.”

PREVIOUSLY:

• Apple’s Tablet: MacBook Airbus?
• Apple Announces Jan. 27 Special Event: “Come See Our Latest Creation”
• Major Apple Product Announcement Set for Wednesday, Jan. 27
• Apple Pitching Tablet to Publishing Industry; Spring Launch Expected
• Time (Finally) for the Tablet? Apple Developers Supersizing Their Apps for January Event.
• The Apple Tablet Is Delayed? So What?
• $1.9 Billion in Capex? What’s Apple Planning?
• Apple’s Tablet: Read Different?
• Imaginary Demand for Mythical Apple Tablet Exceeds All Estimates
• Apple Tablet Coming to AT&T?
• New From Piper Jaffray Analyst Gene Munster: The Apple iPad
• Rumored Apple Netbook Actually an E-Book?
• iTablet: Apple’s Killer App for Higher Ed
• iFugly

If that’s the kind of thing that makes you happy, then you would love today’s call, in which the exact same thing happened again. Twice! From my transcription/paraphrase this afternoon:

Q: What about getting into the low priced/netbook category?

Apple COO Tim Cook: “Our goal is not to build the most computers, it’s to build the best. Whatever price point we can build the best in, we will play there. At this point, we don’t see a way to build a great product at that price point, $399, $499.” We think many customers buying those find themselves “disenchanted” after buying cheapo/netbooks.

Q: Do you think there is an emerging market for a “truly mobile device” with a larger screen, a market big enough that you may want to participate?

Cook: “Never want to discount anything in the future,” and never want to answer specifically your question about new products. [Duh.] But boy, do we think netbooks are lousy, and we think customers agree.

Two things here:

1. Apple has a history of disparaging products and markets right before they unveil their own. So it’s not unreasonable for analysts to keep asking about the prospects for a supercheap Mac laptop. But Apple really is emphatic about its distaste for these machines.
2. Apple is not ruling some sort of device that’s more expensive than a netbook and less expensive than a $999 MacBook…and may have a big touchscreen…and is bigger than an iPhone, etc. Something, perhaps, like an $800 iTablet. We’ll see.

EARLIER:

Joining call late; analysis of Q3 results here.

Reading from prepared statement:

• Eight billion songs purchased and downloaded from iTunes store.
• Slight uptick at Mac retail stores. 50 percent of Macs sold at stores to customers who didn’t own Macs before. 258 stores. 27 store remodels.
• Gross-margin improvement: Component cost increase not as high as expected; weaker U.S. dollar helped.
• Cash pile: Will be invested in short-term investments. First week of Q4, made $500 million payment to Toshiba for future supply of NAND flash memory.

Q&A:

• Please talk about your relationship with wireless carriers (i.e., when will you dump AT&T (T) for Verizon (VZ). Tim Cook: “I think that most of the carriers we’re doing business with are thrilled with lower churn…and, of course, their customers are demanding the iPhone.” Do you see opportunity beyond the iPhone, like data plans for laptops with AT&T? “Nothing to be announced today.” How’s your relationship with AT&T? “I think it’s an excellent relationship and we’re very happy with it.”
• Discussion of education and professional market for Mac laptops/PCs–both affected by economy more than consumer market, i.e., schools and corporations are less likely to spring for shiny new Macs than Joe Sixpack.
• How is the $99 iPhone performing? As we made changes–launch of 3Gs and lower-priced iPhones–we saw acceleration of unit sales. But won’t break down mix. Supply of phones has been “constrained” and demand is robust. Opportunity for enterprise sale? Big opportunity. Doing well with small business, and with big corporations and agencies where employees can purchase for themselves.
• Guidance details? No change in thinking regarding guidance offerings. We usually see an increase in Mac units from June to September, but we think the sequential increase will be less than in previous years since we’ve refreshed our lines a while back. Also, education sales are “under pressure from budget shortfalls.” Same thing with the iPod: We think we’ll see a decline for regular players but an increase for the iPod touch. Seasonality makes projections a little funky this time around given timing of product launches.
• Channel inventory for iPhone lower is than we would like; there are 1.83 million phones in inventory.
• Given the $999 MacBook and price cuts for the Mac line, is the MacBook more or less elastic than anticipated? As we expected, some people are now buying up, because they can get the Macbook Pro for $1,199, down from $1,899. “We’re not thinking fundamentally different about the Mac business than we were before.” If we can build great Macs at lower prices, we will, but we won’t put the Mac brand on products that aren’t up to our standards.
• Update on Snow Leopard? Why such a low price point? Snow Leopard is priced aggressively so that all our users can upgrade to it, and we expect that they will. What commodity prices are you worried about, what should we think of the Toshiba prebuy? Are others coming? The market for DRAM and large-size LCDs has “shifted to constrained environment” and prices have moved accordingly. The NAND supply is getting better. We have a long-term supply agreement with Toshiba. We view flash as key component because we use it in so many products, and we’re a big consumer on a worldwide basis. We’re always open to similar deals. We’ve done one with LG on LCDs. We may do others, but we’re not working on one now.
• Please talk more about consumer demand for lower-priced laptops. No details forthcoming. But on macro level: Once price changes, people are upsold from $999 unit to $1,199 unit. [We just heard that.] Prior to change, we had seen people leaning toward the $999 product. What about pricing on iPhone side? Sounds like $99 3G iPhone helped drive traffic to the $199 3GS iPhone. Was that the plan? We’re focused on total iPhone units. So we’re psyched about 5.2M iPhones sold. Also, take note that the 3GS is in short supply and not available in all territories. Also, early in cycle, you have more upgraders, and upgraders are more likely to get higher priced phones. Still, too early to tell about product mix.
• Competitors are now finally coming out with rival app stores–Pre (barely), BlackBerry, etc.). What are you up to in answering back? Well, we just launched OS 3.0. That’s pretty great. It has an Installed base of 45 million (iPhones and iPod touch). We have a gazillion apps. According to the latest numbers from Nokia (NOK) and RIM (RIMM), they have a couple thousand each; Android has maybe 5,000. “We feel extremely good about our competitive position and continue to believe that we’re light years ahead of other people.”
• What about getting into the low-priced/netbook category? Tim Cook: “Our goal is not to build the most computers, it’s to build the best. Whatever price point we can build the best in, we will play there. At this point, we don’t see a way to build a great product at that price point, $399, $499.” We think many customers buying those find themselves “disenchanted” after buying cheapo/netbooks.
• Is the carrier network strong enough to handle all the apps and the more robust apps you’re coming out with every day? Non-answer. Do you think you guys will make investments on the side to take pressure of carrier-capacity issues? No plans. When we entered business, we looked at it, decided what we could do well was deliver the handset. I think there are other people that have more skills in the network area, and I think we have a lot of those partners.
• Back to netbooks and things like netbooks, but better, like the iTablet: Do you think there is an emerging market for a “truly mobile device” with a larger screen, a market big enough that you may want to participate? Cook: “Never want to discount anything in the future,” and never want to answer specifically your question about new products. [Duh.] But, boy, do we think netbooks are lousy and we think customers agree.
• Any info on iPhone sales split between new buyers and upgrades? Nope. Okay, how about the app store? It looks like prices are in a “race to the bottom”; there are lots of 99 cent apps. Are you worried about that? And can you help customers distinguish between good ones and “garbage”? Cook: “We realize there’s further opportunity for improvement” regarding promoting quality apps, etc. Regarding price: It’s up to the developers. As the installed base grows, it makes more sense to have lower prices, but that’s up to the developers.

Call finished.

To see Peter Kafka’s liveblog of Apple’s Q3 Earnings Call, click here.

The economy is in recession, consumer spending is down and the PC market is in the worst decline since the Great Dark Times of 2001.

And Apple is doing just fine.

After market close Tuesday, the company reported earnings that crushed the Street’s estimates into a fine iPod-white dust. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters estimated that Apple (AAPL) would earn $1.16 per share on $8.16 billion in sales. Instead, it earned $1.35 on $8.34 billion for a profit of $1.23 billion.

Apple shipped 2.6 million Macs in the quarter just as NPD forecast and it sold 5.2 million iPhones. iPod sales were down seven percent to 10.2 million. Gross margin was 36.3 percent, up 34.8 percent year-over-year, and international sales accounted for 44 percent of revenue during the period. For its fourth quarter, Apple expects to earn $1.18 to $1.23 per share on revenue of $8.7 billion to $8.9 billion.

“We’re making our most innovative products ever and our customers are responding,” Apple CEO Steve Jobs said in a statement. “We’re thrilled to have sold over 5.2 million iPhones during the quarter and users have downloaded more than 1.5 billion applications from our App Store in its first year.”

Clearly, business is good in Cupertino, recession be damned. Apple shares rose two percent to 154.68 in after-hours trading on the news.

Among those doing so today: Morgan Stanley’s Kathryn Huberty, who lifted hers to $180 from $105, arguing that iPhone demand through 2010 is being underestimated by the market and will help drive Apple’s stock value up. “We believe Apple is emerging as the clear leader in the battle over the mobile Internet,” Huberty wrote in a research note to clients, adding that some future pricing adjustments will only solidify that position. “We expect a price cut to the current generation iPhone to drive 50 percent to 100 percent (two million to four million units) incremental unit demand,” she said. “Our survey data suggests 15 percent plus of the iPhone installed base typically upgrade to a new phone.”

A bullish call, especially for Huberty, whose opinion of Apple has historically been mercurial at best. Shares of Apple (AAPL) rose five percent to $128.60 in early trading this morning.

Tempering Huberty’s exuberant pronouncements today is Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry, who tells Reuters that the iPhone will suffer a bit at the hands of the Palm (PALM) Pre, which is scheduled to arrive at market on June 6. “Investors should not think the upcoming version of iPhone 3 is going to be as successful as iPhone 2.0 because it will have solid competition from Palm Pre, developed by ex-Apple designer Jon Rubinstein,” Chowdhry said. “Palm Pre has a superior operating system than iPhone. It runs on a better network–Sprint CDMA-versus iPhone which runs on GSM.”

A few quick highlights from the earnings statement and investor call before the official release, appended below.

• Apple sold 22.7 million iPods and 4.4 million iPhones during the quarter.
• It shipped 2.5 million Macs.
• Looking ahead to the second fiscal quarter of 2009, the company expects revenue in the range of about $7.6 billion to $8 billion.
• The release includes no mention of Jobs’s health.

During a call to discuss Apple’s latest earnings, Steve Jobs and his health were top of mind. Indeed, the first question of the call centered around this very issue:

Q: Well, since I’m going first, I guess I’ll ask how is Steve and hope he’s doing well. And I just wanted to know how, if you’ll run the company differently with Tim or the same and if need be, if Tim — do you feel like you would be the likely candidate if the worst case scenario were to happen if Steve was unable to return.”

Apple COO Tim Cook: There is an extraordinary depth and breadth in Apple’s executive team. And it leads over 35,000 wicked smart people. We believe we’re on the face of earth to make great products, and that’s not changing. We believe in simple not complex. We believe in deep collaboration. We have the self-honesty to admit when we’re wrong. These values are so embedded in the company that we will do extremely well regardless of who has the CEO Job. I strongly believe that Apple is doing the best work in its history.

Also the focus of some discussion the possibility of an Apple netbook. Is Apple considering entering the sub-$500 netbook market? Cook says not right now. “We’re watching that space, but from our point of view, the products are based on hardware that’s not very powerful, software that’s not that good and cramped displays. We don’t think that people are going to be pleased with that. It’s a category we watch and we have some ideas for it, but we think the products there right now are inferior.”

Here’s the official release:

Apple Reports First Quarter Results
Best Quarterly Revenue and Earnings in Apple History
iPod Sales Set New Record

“Even in these economically challenging times, we are incredibly pleased to report our best quarterly revenue and earnings in Apple history—surpassing $10 billion in quarterly revenue for the first time ever,” said Steve Jobs, Apple’s CEO.

A few quick highlights from the earnings statement and investor call before the official release, appended below.

• Apple sold 22.7 million iPods and 4.4 million iPhones during the quarter.
• It shipped 2.5 million Macs.
• Looking ahead to the second fiscal quarter of 2009, the company expects revenue in the range of about $7.6 billion to $8 billion.
• The release includes no mention of Jobs’s health.

During a call to discuss Apple’s latest earnings, Steve Jobs and his health were top of mind. Indeed, the first question of the call centered around this very issue:

Q: Well, since I’m going first, I guess I’ll ask how is Steve and hope he’s doing well. And I just wanted to know how, if you’ll run the company differently with Tim or the same and if need be, if Tim — do you feel like you would be the likely candidate if the worst case scenario were to happen if Steve was unable to return.”

Apple COO Tim Cook: There is an extraordinary depth and breadth in Apple’s executive team. And it leads over 35,000 wicked smart people. We believe we’re on the face of earth to make great products, and that’s not changing. We believe in simple not complex. We believe in deep collaboration. We have the self-honesty to admit when we’re wrong. These values are so embedded in the company that we will do extremely well regardless of who has the CEO Job. I strongly believe that Apple is doing the best work in its history.

Also the focus of some discussion the possibility of an Apple netbook. Is Apple considering entering the sub-$500 netbook market? Cook says not right now. “We’re watching that space, but from our point of view, the products are based on hardware that’s not very powerful, software that’s not that good and cramped displays. We don’t think that people are going to be pleased with that. It’s a category we watch and we have some ideas for it, but we think the products there right now are inferior.”

Here’s the official release:

Apple Reports First Quarter Results
Best Quarterly Revenue and Earnings in Apple History
iPod Sales Set New Record

“Even in these economically challenging times, we are incredibly pleased to report our best quarterly revenue and earnings in Apple history—surpassing $10 billion in quarterly revenue for the first time ever,” said Steve Jobs, Apple’s CEO.

Research In Motion (RIMM) yesterday gave a pre-Xmas gift to investors, providing guidance for the fiscal fourth quarter ending in February that exceeded Street expectations. Almost no company on the Street has been able to do that in the current environment. RIM forecast revenue for the quarter of $3.3 billion to $3.5 billion, with profits of 83-91 cents a share; that compared to the old consensus forecast of $2.99 billion and 83 cents.

The one sticky bit is that the company sees gross margin for the quarter of 40-41 percent, down from 45.6 percent in the November quarter.

Read the rest of this post

Aggarwal says trend reversal in FX “will put $22 million” of “negative pressure on Google’s gross margin” on a sequential basis, and will provide only a $132 million boost on a year-over-year basis, versus $248 million in Q2 and $202 million in Q1.

Aggarwal, who maintains a Buy rating and $615 price target on the stock, says that the currency shift “is not a thesis changer, but a noteworthy trend reversal to watch for.”

Read the rest of this post