Let’s put this in the simplest terms: Yahoo cannot spend the next half year in any kind of testy proxy battle with activist shareholder Daniel Loeb.

Not shouldn’t. Can’t.

Having closely covered the last goat rodeo in 2008 with corporate troublemaker Carl Icahn — which ended in big shareholders dinging the board badly and the controversial activist joining it — I can say definitively that the experience damaged the Silicon Valley Internet company in ways that are still resonating.

Angry shareholders (whose anti-Yahoo votes were initially miscounted in a stunning bumble), distracted management, media story after story about the fight, it eventually led to the departure of then CEO Jerry Yang by the holidays of that year, a rejiggered board and a new CEO, Carol Bartz, and fervent promises of change and turnaround.

Fast forward to today: Bartz was ousted in the fall of last year, a newish board is coming in, there’s another new CEO and, of course, more fervent promises of change and turnaround.

This is like the movie “Groundhog Day,” except not nearly as funny.

Speaking of funny, a Heard on the Street in The Wall Street Journal yesterday actually went fabulously snarktastic with its headline on Yahoo’s current tussle with Loeb of Third Point: “Is Yahoo Ready for a Loebotomy?”

Heh.

Opening with the line, “How many activists does it take to screw in Yahoo’s light bulb?,” the piece went on to ponder back and forth the impact of Loeb on the already dicey situation at Yahoo.

It concluded: “Yahoo investors shouldn’t expect a quick fix whoever the directors are. But, given how long Yahoo has been struggling to gain traction on its own, having a champion of shareholder value on the board can’t hurt.”

Nope, it can’t, as long as said investor wants to help find the successful fix previous Yahoo leaders have been heretofore unable to.

Another commentary in the Journal, “Dealpolitik: The Yahoo Paradox” took an opposite tack.

“Even giving Mr. Loeb a single seat could further weaken Yahoo. As a gadfly Mr. Loeb could challenge each board decision,” it read.

Actually, given this board changes direction more often than Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney — witness the now non-talks with its Asian partners this past week and, before that, with private equity investors — I am not sure Loeb would change the status quo all that much if he threw one tantrum per meeting.

So, which is it? Will a settlement with Loeb lead to more trouble or will it create the kind of change that Yahoo has long needed and never gotten?

At this point, I have no idea — but I do know that a fight between Loeb and Yahoo is good for no one, except lawyers and perhaps page views on this site and others.

And, frankly, I don’t want them.

That’s because — even as the rest of Silicon Valley reinvents and innovates more aggressively than ever these days — Yahoo and its still deeply committed employees will be caught up in more fraught financial mishegas and machinations and will be unable to do anything to attract new talent and begin to truly fix itself and its products in the profound ways it needs to.

And new CEO Scott Thompson — who seems intent on setting a new course for Yahoo in a non-advertising arena — will be inevitably distracted, no matter the also inevitable protestations that he will not be.

And, it won’t just be Loeb who is hovering — there is no doubt a panoply of other interested outside investors still waiting in the wings to see what tasty bits of Yahoo might come available if the crisis deepens.

It’s certainly not come to roadkill yet by any measure. But it’s not a recipe for hitting the ground running, either.

Here is a video of me talking about the problematic situation on WSJ.com’s “Digits” online show:

Another day, another honking big funding for another online start-up (and yet another broken embargo too!).

It’s like Groundhog Day in Silicon Valley as usual.

Today, Cambridge, Mass.-based HubSpot wins tech’s version of the lottery, grabbing $32 million from Sequoia Capital, Google Ventures and also Salesforce.com.

It is unclear what the valuation for HubSpot is now, although it is likely high given it has raised $65 million now.

HubSpot makes marketing software for businesses, who use it to find prospects and generate leads, along with tools to analyze the process. It claims it has “4,000 customers, over 50 percent market share, five million leads managed, and 70 million page views tracked monthly.”

The Series D financing included HubSpot’s existing venture investors–General Catalyst Partners, Matrix Partners, and Scale Venture Partners–and part of it will be used to cash out existing shareholders. In previous rounds, the start-up has raised $33 million.

Here is the official press release:

Sequoia, Google Ventures, and Salesforce.com Invest $32 Million in HubSpot
Marketing Software Company Attracts New Strategic Investors

CAMBRIDGE, MA–(Marketwire – March 8, 2011)–Today, for the first time ever, Sequoia Capital, Google Ventures and Salesforce.com all invested together in one company, providing HubSpot with a Series D round of financing through a $32 million investment. HubSpot provides all-in-one marketing software used by over 4,000 businesses to get found by more prospects, convert them into leads and sales, and analyze the entire marketing process.

“The fundamental way that people shop, learn, and buy has changed radically in the last few years. HubSpot helps transform the way businesses market from outbound marketing (cold calls, email blasts, and direct mail) to inbound marketing (Google, blogs, social media, mobile, etc.),” said Brian Halligan, co-founder and CEO of HubSpot.

Sequoia Capital has a long history of partnering with founders to help them build long-term, multi-billion dollar companies, including Google, LinkedIn, AdMob, YouTube, Yahoo!, Apple, and Oracle. “We back companies that are transforming their industries,” said Jim Goetz, General Partner at Sequoia Capital. “HubSpot is the emerging category leader in the SaaS marketing sector. Their customer base exceeds that of all the other relevant marketing software companies combined, including Eloqua, Marketo, Genius, and Manticore.”

“Today, every company needs to succeed in search, social, sales, and marketing–I can’t think of a more powerful trifecta than Google, Salesforce.com, and HubSpot. With 4,000 customers, HubSpot is already a clear marketing leader–now, with this new infusion of capital and recognition by Google’s venture arm and Salesforce.com, HubSpot has a great opportunity to separate itself from the pack and become the leading marketing platform in the small and medium business space,” said Brent Leary, co-founder of CRM Essentials.

Google Ventures Partner, Rich Miner (formerly co-founder of Android) said, “We agree with HubSpot’s belief that search engines, social media, and mobile devices have fundamentally changed how businesses should market themselves. We’re thrilled to support their efforts to help thousands of small and medium businesses reach potential customers.”

Dharmesh Shah, co-founder and CTO of HubSpot commented, “We founded the company based on a simple premise: Businesses want an easy-to-use, complete and integrated marketing platform that helps them get more leads and customers. We plan to use this new capital to further invest in this ambitious vision and further our existing lead in the marketing software category.”

Yesterday’s device of tomorrow (see Bill Gates’s 2001 prediction that tablet PCs would outstrip laptops and of course the Apple Newton) is once again hot stuff, thanks to Apple’s (AAPL) iPad launch last month.

Now, other PC makers are hoping they can finally create a market for technology that’s been languishing for years.

But while Apple’s gotten the buzz, and H-P (HPQ) has gotten attention for its Windows-based Slate, which it previewed three weeks before the iPad, Dell (DELL) has taken a different approach.

The Texas PC giant has been showing its Mini 5–a much smaller touch-screen gadget than Apple’s or H-P’s–since early January. The device looks like a big iPhone and uses Google’s (GOOG) Android operating system. Dell says the Mini 5 will go on sale later this year. When that happens, it will end what John Thode, Dell’s vice president in charge of mobile devices, describes as a two-year process to figure out what people who’ve already got a smart phone and a laptop would be willing to buy.

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Every year on Groundhog Day, my friends–such as Liz and Treby, from when I was but a wee BoomTown (well, I am still wee)–call me with holiday greetings.

Why? Because freakish child that I was, I actually threw an annual Groundhog Day fest at school, complete with a cake–I used a rabbit-shaped pan, cut off its ears and added slivered almonds as teeth.

My premise: There was no good holiday between Christmas/New Year’s and Easter. Also groundhogs were deeply misunderstood.

So, as I take off to bake another cake with the kids–passing on a noble tradition–here are some videos to enjoy.

By the way, groundhog No. 1, Punxsutawney Phil, did see his shadow, so winter continues!

Super Bowl ad featuring Troy Polamalu as Punxsutawney Phil:

Cat vs. Groundhog:

Tiger Woods vs. “Caddyshack” gopher (which kind of looks like a groundhog–see differences here):

The inevitable Best Scenes from the most excellent “Groundhog Day” movie:

Groundhog Day 2010 in Punxsutawney, Pa. (with the dude who played Ned Ryerson in “Groundhog Day,” who does a weird whistling bellybutton thing!!!):

Phil, the most widely known Groundhog Day mascot, is set to emerge from his burrow in the early hours of the morning. According to the Groundhog Day legend, if he sees his shadow, there will be six more weeks of winter. If he doesn’t, there will be an early spring. Eager Phil followers can sign up to receive the news by texting “Groundhog” to 247365 ahead of time.

“Punxsutawney Phil holds the fate of winter close to the vest and in his stump until daybreak on Feb. 2, but the moment he emerges you can be among the first to learn of the forecast on your mobile phone,” the Pennsylvania tourism office said in a press release.

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Oh dear.

Even more waiting for Yahoo to turn itself around? Until 2009? Really? Another 100 days, and another, and another and then more than half of another?

This is starting to feel very, very familiar.

Too familiar.

Well, it did take seven months to replace Farzad Nazem as CTO at a–um, well–technology-dependent company, so perhaps the glacial pace of non-change change planned for the Internet giant should not come as too much of a surprise.

Still, any surprise or new development from Yahoo might be more welcomed by Wall Street, which decidedly did not like much of what it heard from CEO and Co-Founder Jerry Yang or other Yahoo top execs during their fourth quarter and year-end earnings session yesterday.

After the underwhelming call, which came after the markets had closed, Yahoo shares were off almost 10% in after-hours trading, falling below a dangerous $20 level to $18.89.

Or, as I like to call it, takeover territory. Or even, as many media and tech players I talked to recently have been suggesting more fervently, the land where Yahoo merges with AOL or eBay.

But, really, who knows? Even, it seems, Jerry Yang.

He used the term “head winds” to characterize Yahoo’s sober guidance for the future, even as Yahoo had a sharp drop-off in net profit for the quarter.

Oddly, he did not highlight the much ballyhooed layoffs, which might number about 1,000. Or not–because some laid off can look for other jobs at Yahoo in more promising product areas. Got that?

I don’t and that’s probably the most critical problem Yahoo faces. Still, right after the call, Yang and his top execs went back into the cone of silence they have been living in, which is located in their cozy cave of noncommunication, without further comment.

Incredibly, reporters were asked to email or text any follow-up questions and given no access to anyone in charge.

While Yang and others there often note that they have their heads down–remember, there are scary head winds out there and potential hair-mussing dangers!–and don’t have time for such things, even Punxsutawney Phil knows that the only way winter ends is if you come out of your hole and don’t get scared looking at your own shadow.