Short answer: Lots.

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster estimates that 18.8 million iPhone 3GS users will likely upgrade to the iPhone 4S, accounting for about 18 percent of Apple’s fiscal 2012 iPhone sales.

“We believe the number of iPhone 3GS units sold before the launch of the iPhone 4 serves as a conservative proxy for iPhone users that will likely upgrade to the iPhone 4S,” says Munster. “Note that our Aug-11 survey shows that among existing iPhone users, 94 percent expect to buy another iPhone as their next phone; Apple has built an annuity of smartphone buyers.”

Indeed. And Munster’s estimate includes only 3GS upgraders. It doesn’t account for existing users of the original iPhone, iPhone 3G, or even the iPhone 4. In other words, it’s likely that upgrade sales will be even greater than Munster predicts.

We’ll see. Currently, Munster is calling for 25 million iPhone units to be shipped in calendar Q4 of this year, a number he has already conceded may be too low.

“The improvement of iPad 2′s display focuses on thickness and anti-reflection, not resolution,” Ming-Chi claims, adding that the device’s display module is 30 to 35 percent thinner than that of the iPad 1 and will eliminate some of the glare that some critics claim makes it difficult to read in bright sunlight.

Quite a change from last year and the launch of the iPhone 3G and 3GS, when it took a little over a month for China Unicom to hit the 100,000-units-sold milestone

Said Li Gang, senior vice-president of China Unicom “The sales of previous versions of iPhones created a solid foundation for the explosive performance of the iPhone 4 this year.”

[Image credit: Frank Yu / Flickr]

Reports of the problems have been overshadowed by “Antennagate” — complaints about the iPhone 4 antenna that led Apple to issue free cases to all buyers. But since the iOS 4 software became available in late June, user concerns have surfaced on Apple forums.

The most common criticism is that the phone is slow after an upgrade. There are also many complaints that the phone drains the battery quickly and becomes excessively hot. Concern about general problems such as slowness and battery life on gadgets isn’t unusual, but using iOS 4 on the iPhone 3G seems to make the problems so bad that the phone is nearly unusable for some people.

Read the rest of this post on the original site

Looks like a Wi-Fi-enable version of Apple’s iPhone is indeed headed to China–and sooner rather than later. According to a notice published by the country’s Telecommunication Equipment Certification Center, Chinese regulators have issued a network access license for an iPhone that supports “HSDPA and WAPI security mode with wireless LAN capabilities.” WAPI is China’s homegrown wireless standard.

Interestingly, photos of the approved device published by the TECC suggest it’s an iPhone 3G or 3GS, not the iPhone 4.

Evidently, Apple (AAPL) was willing to customize the device for a single market, something it’s been unwilling to do in the past. But it had very good reasons: Sales of the iPhone in China are widely believed to have been undermined by the device’s initial lack of Wi-Fi support.

With that issue remedied, sales through China Unicom could ramp up–a boon for Apple, which has targeted China as its next major geographic growth opportunity. Recall Apple COO Tim Cook’s words during a recent company earnings call.

China has been interesting. If you look at greater China which we define as mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, the iPhone units were up year-over-year over nine times. We added another 800 points of distribution in China. The revenue, we have never released this number before but I will do this in this particular case, through the first half of the fiscal year that we just completed for the six month period our revenue from greater China was almost $1.3 billion and this is up over 200 percent year-over-year. So we are well pleased with how the company is positioned to take advantage of the growth in greater China.

Responding to complaints about weakening signal strength when the iPhone 4 is held in a particular way, the company said such issues are common to all cell phones. Its suggested solution for those experiencing the problem: Hold it a different way–specifically, in a way in which your hand doesn’t simultaneously cover the two antennas built into the steel band that encircles the phone’s exterior. Evidently the flesh of the hand can act as a conductive agent between the two antennas causing signal degradation.

“Gripping any phone will result in some attenuation of its antenna performance with certain places being worse than others depending on the placement of the antennas,” Apple spokesperson Nat Harrison explained. “This is a fact of life for every wireless phone.”

And that is true. The Droid Incredible reportedly suffers from a similar issue. As do the HTC EVO, the Nexus One, the iPhone 3G and certain BlackBerrys (see image and videos below).

So, yes, a fact of life–particularly given FCC requirements that mandate that the radiating portion of a cell phone’s antenna be kept as far as possible from the user’s head. So why haven’t we heard complaints like this about “every wireless phone”? Why hasn’t RIM issued instructions for a proper BlackBerry handhold? That’s not clear.

Perhaps it’s the result of the iPhone launch spectacle and the media attention and scrutiny that accompanies it. But perhaps it is a design issue as well. After all, the iPhone 4′s integrated antenna is new and CEO Steve Jobs did tout it at WWDC as “really cool engineering.” And Apple’s advice to those encountering the problem is simply to hold the phone differently. Said Harrison, “If you ever experience this on your Phone 4, avoid gripping it in the lower left corner in a way that covers both sides of the black strip in the metal band, or simply use one of many available cases.”

Given that simple solution, why didn’t Apple simply adjust the position of the antennas in the first place?

That said, note that Harrison says “if you ever experience this,” suggesting that the issue is an occasional or limited one. For what it’s worth, that appears to be the case with my unit. Despite my best efforts, I can’t reproduce the problem on it.

“Given the size of the iPhone 4 pre-order and our analysis of the expected upgrade cycle, particularly the remaining 3G users, we believe the full launch weekend of June 24-27 is shaping up to potentially be a 2 million-3 million iPhone event,” Fidacaro said in a research note today.

“[That’s] about 2-3x higher than the one million units sold over the first three days for both the 3GS and 3G launches,” the analyst added. “The strong initial demand seen during the pre-order is a positive for the June quarter and has apparently been limited by supply with new orders now indicating a July 14 delivery date.”

With 600,000 pre-orders racked up as of Wednesday and a few days yet to take more, a two-million unit launch weekend for Apple (AAPL) doesn’t seem much of a stretch. Frankly, neither does three million, given the iPhone 4′s feature set and price, as well as the fact that this year’s launch weekend begins on a Thursday rather than a Friday.

FURTHER READING

• Walt Mossberg’s iPhone 4 Review
• Analysts Raise iPhone 4 Sales Forecasts From Huge to Ginormous
• New iPhone 4 Pre-Orders Now Delayed to July 14
• Apple: Sorry We Sold 600,000 iPhone 4s Yesterday
• iPhone 4 Pre-Orders Sold Out at Apple, Suspended at AT&T
• What Happened to the White iPhone 4?
• AT&T Now Dropping iPhone Calls and iPhone 4 Pre-Orders
• And if You Have Any Questions About Your New iPhone 4, Just Ask Our Radio Shack Geniuses
• Everything You Need to Know About the iPhone 4

Certainly, the specs, below, for the Devour suggest it will cost significantly less than the $200 Droid commands when tethered to a two-year wireless contract.

• Android 1.6 (Donut) with MotoBlur, a Motorola (MOT) service that essentially corrals Facebook, MySpace, Twitter, Picasa, GMail and MS Exchange activity into a single feed and presents them on your phone
• 3.1-inch touchscreen at 320×480
• Horizontal slider keyboard
• 3-megapixel camera
• EVDO Rev. A
• Wi-Fi b/g
• aGPS
• Bluetooth with A2DP
• HTML 5-compatible Webkit browser
• MicroSD card up to 16GB

As I said, Verizon has not disclosed the price for Devour, but $99 sounds about right to me, especially if the company is looking to pit this thing against Apple’s (AAPL) low-end iPhone 3G.

Liveblog

9:13 am PT: Quite a scene here this morning; the queue for media credentials is nearly as long as some of the iPhone 3G launch lines I saw a few years back. Moments ago, an Apple PR rep slipped through the doors of the Yerba Buena Center to ask that the press waiting outside take two big steps back. The last time that happened to me, I was at a Jesus Lizard show.

9:54 am: The doors open and the press enters the event hall. Initially, at least, the scene is pretty crazy. “This is like the subway in New York,” an attendee behind me jokes. More like the subway in Tokyo, I think to myself.

A Bob Dylan soundtrack plays as media and guests file in. It’s momentarily interrupted by a “please take your seats, our event is about to begin” announcement.

10:00 am: Interesting stage set-up today: Instead of an empty stage or a simple table, there are a black leather chair and side-table. Lights are dimming….

And Steve Jobs takes the stage to a standing ovation.

“We want to kick off 2010 by introducing a truly magical product, but first a few updates….A few weeks ago we sold our 250 millionth iPod…I didn’t want to let that moment pass without recognizing it.”

10:05 am: Jobs offers a quick overview of Apple’s retail operations and some of the new stores it has opened recently before moving on to the iTunes App Store. “A few weeks ago we announced that three billion applications had been downloaded from the App Store–that’s in 18 months…amazing.”
He notes, as he did in the company’s earnings release the other day, that Apple is now a $50 billion company.

Apple is a mobile devices company, says Jobs, “the largest mobile devices company in the world now. Larger than Sony’s mobile device business, larger than Samsung’s and, astonishingly, Nokia’s as well.”

10:07 am: A quick historical overview now. Jobs touches on the first PowerBook, introduced in 1991. He moves on to the MacBook and then the iPhone.

“All of us use laptops and smartphones, now. And the question has arisen lately: Is there room for a device in the middle?…We’ve pondered this question as well.”

This “middle” device, says Jobs, must be better at doing certain tasks than either the laptop or smartphone. If there’s going to be a third-device category, it must be better at browsing the Web, video, photos, music, etc.

“Some folks say this device is a netbook…. The problem is, netbooks aren’t better at anything.”

10:10 am: But we have something that is, says Jobs, “and it’s called the iPad.”

Photos of the device appear on the giant screens. Very thin. Very slick. “IPad offers the best Web browsing experience there is–way better than laptops.” There is no camera that I can see. That’s not going to go over well with folks hoping for a device that supports video iChat.

10:13 am: Further details: The “iPad is a dream to type on,” Jobs says, pointing out its life-sized onscreen keyboard. It’s also an awesome way to enjoy media. iTunes, iTunes University and YouTube HD support are built in.

10:14 am: Jobs sits down to demo the device: “Using this thing is remarkable. It’s so much more intimate and capable than the laptop.” He loads Safari and surfs over to the New York Times (NYT). The iPad loads quickly and Jobs is able to easily navigate the page, loading stories and zooming in on articles.

10:15 am: Demonstrating landscape and portrait now. “This device adapts to the way I want to use it.”

Definitely an impressive browsing experience. Fast and elegant.

Now, an overview of Mail. Also elegant. Nice split-screen presentation. Hit compose, and a nice onscreen keyboard pops up. Jobs types out a message to his colleagues at Apple. Seems relatively easy.

10:19 am: Moving on to iPad’s photo capabilities. It supports iPhoto’s Events, Faces and Places features. It also offers built-in slideshows complete with soundtracks and transitions.

Running a slideshow demo, Jobs pauses and looks out at the audience with a Chesire Cat-wide grin. He’s clearly relishing this moment.

10:22 am:: The iTunes experience on iPad is much as you would expect. Similar, if not identical, to what the software currently offers. Calendar and Contacts apps are also nice and, again, similar to what you’d find on a MacBook or iPhone.

10:24 am: Demoing Google Maps now. The iPad supports Google Street View and the implementation is very slick.

10:25 am: Moving on to video. Jobs calls up an HD clip from Google’s (GOOG) YouTube and displays it in both portrait and landscape. That finished, he fires up iTunes and loads “Star Trek” to demo the device’s video features, scrubbing, etc. Then he shows us a clip from Pixar’s “Up.” Tap to go full-screen. “Isn’t that wonderful?”

10:27 am: Watching that is nothing like actually having one in your hands, says Jobs.

• iPad is one-half-inch thick, weighs 1.5 pounds, and comes with 9.7 inch IPS display–“very high-quality display”
• Full capacitive multitouch
• 16GB-64GB flash storage
• iPad is powered by our Apple’s custom silicon–“We did it inhouse and it just screams,” says Jobs.
• Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, accelerometer, compass.
• Battery life: 10 hours.

“And in addition to 10 hours of battery life, iPad offers a full month of standby time,” Jobs notes. “It’s also a good environmental citizen,” he adds, noting that it’s a very green device.

10:31 am: Jobs invites Scott Forestall to the stage to talk about apps on the device.

“We built the iPad to run virtually every app in the App Store right out of the box,” Forestall says.

Evidently, a built-in pixel-doubling feature automatically scales iPhone apps to full-screen iPad apps.

10:35 am: Forestall runs an unmodified racing game from the App Store. He first demos it in the screen size of an iPhone. Then, using the pixel-doubling feature, he blows it out to full screen. Very slick.

“So you can buy the iPad, take it home, hook it up and download all your iPhone apps and run them with no problem at all,” he says.

Forestall announces a new iPhone software development kit specifically geared to the iPad. He notes that iPad-specific applications will be featured “front and center” in the App Store.
He then invites Gameloft’s Mark Hickey to the stage to demo some new games the company has developed using the new SDK.

Hickey notes that the iPad’s additional screen space is a boon for developers, particularly those building games. He demos a first-person shooter that showcases this. “We’re now able to interact with the game world in ways that we weren’t able to before.”

10:40 am: Next up, the New York Times. Martin Nisenholtz takes the stage to talk about its iPad effort.

After talking up the Times iPhone app, Nisenholtz segues to the the paper’s new iPad app: “We think we’ve captured the experience and essence of reading the newspaper.”

The app is largely what you’d expect. Tap to resize text, zoom, breaking news updates, video. “This is everything you love about the paper and everything you love about the Web.”

10:44 am: Now, a painting application called Brushes that was famously used to create a New Yorker cover.
The app is impressive enough on iPhone; it’s even more so on the iPad. It supports “playback” of paintings, and as the presenter notes, brings us one step closer to a real virtual painting studio.

10:46 am: EA’s Travis Boatman take’s the stage. The topic of his presentation: Need For Speed.

“Building for the iPad is a little bit like holding a high-def TV screen a few inches from your face,” he says.

The iPad version of Need for Speed boasts a number of touch-activated enhancements: Tap on the car to view its interior, tap on the rear-view mirror to look behind you.

10:52 am: Up next: MLB.com’s Chad Evans. He demos the outfit’s iPad-optimized app, which uses the device’s additional screen space to display video excerpts and MLB TV.

MLB TV can be streamed like and enhanced with onscreen stats and data. “This big display really allows us to create a much more immersive experience,” Evans says.

10:52 am: Forestall returns to the stage to make another brief plug for the SDK before Jobs takes over for him.
“Let me show you another one of our apps that we’re very excited about,” Jobs says. “An e-book reader.”

Behind him a photo of Amazon’s (AMZN) Kindle appears. “Amazon did a great job with their reader and we’re standing on their shoulders here….Today we’re announcing the iBooks store,” says Jobs, adding that it will be supported initially by Penguin, Simon & Schuster and a number of other big publishers.

The iBooks Store interface begins with a simple bookshelf view. Tap the screen and it loads a more iTunes-like view. Purchase a book and it’s added to your bookshelf with a slick little animation.

The reading experience seems very appealing. Much more book-like. From where I sit, the pages look like they’re written on paper.

“We use the e-pub format, the most popular open-book format in the world,” says Jobs. “We think iPad is going to be a very popular e-reader not just for bestsellers, but for textbooks as well.”

10:58 am: And here’s another new product announcement: A new version of iWork tweaked for use on the iPad. Jobs invites Phil Schiller on stage to demo it.

“We have a completely new version of Keynote, a completely new version of Pages and a completely new version of Numbers–all optimized for multitouch.

Schiller demos Keynote first. Creating presentations appears intuitive and simple–a slide navigator on the left, tap to load individual slides in the main window, drag to rearrange.

Nice use of multitouch gestures to enhance the app. Pinch to resize photos, tap to insert animations and transitions. These are all fairly advanced techniques and the device seems to handle them well.

11:05 am: Moving on to Pages now. Also impressive, though creating a written document on a tablet device like the iPad seems like it might be a drag. A nice tool for editing, though. Simple controls.

11:07 am: Moving on to Numbers. This application also makes good use of multitouch gestures and boasts a data-entry keyboard along with some 250 built-in functions. The software’s gesture capabilities makes Excel look antediluvian.
Powerful and fast.

So what’s Apple going to charge for iWork? $9.99 each, says Schiller, who notes that all three applications are compatible with their Mac versions.

Jobs returns to the stage, grinning. “Isn’t that great?” he asks for what’s easily the 10th time. iPad, he says, will synch to Mac or PC via USB.

11:14 am: Evidently, there will be two iPad models–one with Wi-Fi-only and one with Wi-Fi and 3G. The 3G device will come with two plans: 250 MB per month for $14.99, unlimited data for $29.99.

And who’s the carrier? AT&T.

A small groan ripples through the audience.

Jobs allows that AT&T is also throwing in free Wi-Fi at its hotspots. He follows that up by noting that there are no contracts for the iPad. You can cancel at anytime.

All iPad 3G models are unlocked and they use new GSM micro SIMS, so chances are they will just work, Jobs says, after noting that Apple hasn’t yet worked out international carrier deals.

11:16 am: Now a quick overview as a wrap-up. Jobs touts the overall tablet experience along with the new iBook app and iBook Store. “This is an amazing product with tremendous breadth. What should we charge for it?…When we set out to develop the iPad we not only had aggressive UI goals, we had aggressive price goals, because we wanted to put this in the hands of as many people as possible….IPad pricing starts not at $999, but $499,” Jobs says to a huge round of applause.

$499 for 16GB base model.
32GB for $599.
64GB for $699.
Adding 3G requires an additional fee.

Apple will ship Wi-Fi models in 60 days and 3G models in 90.

11:20 am: Apple has created new accessories for the iPad: A standard dock and a second dock with a keyboard attached to it. “Keep one of these in your den and you can write the next “War and Peace” on it.” The final accessory, a new case that doubles as a stand.

Running a video now. It features a number of Apple execs enthusiastically talking up the iPad.

11:25 am: Let me circle back here for a moment to pricing. Adding 3G to iPad requires an additional $130. So we’re talking $629 for the 16GB model, $729 for the 32GB and $829 for the 64GB version.

Designer Jon Ives on the iPad: “In many ways iPad defines our vision, our sense of what’s next.”

11:32 am: Jobs returns to the stage and recalls the “middle device” scenario he mentioned earlier today. “Can we create this new category? The bar is set pretty high, but we think we’ve got the goods.”

“This is our most advanced technology in a magical and revolutionary device at an unbelievable price,” he adds. “The reason the iPad is going to be so great is because Apple has always strived to be at the junction of technology and liberal arts.”

And with that he concludes. Lights go up and Dylan begins playing over the speakers again.

View the slideshow

PREVIOUSLY:

• Apple’s Tablet: A $2.8 Billion Business?
• Apple’s Tablet: MacBook Airbus?
• Apple Announces Jan. 27 Special Event: “Come See Our Latest Creation”
• Major Apple Product Announcement Set for Wednesday, Jan. 27
• Apple Pitching Tablet to Publishing Industry; Spring Launch Expected
• Time (Finally) for the Tablet? Apple Developers Supersizing Their Apps for January Event.
• The Apple Tablet Is Delayed? So What?
• $1.9 Billion in Capex? What’s Apple Planning?
• Apple’s Tablet: Read Different?
• Imaginary Demand for Mythical Apple Tablet Exceeds All Estimates
• Apple Tablet Coming to AT&T?
• New From Piper Jaffray Analyst Gene Munster: The Apple iPad
• Rumored Apple Netbook Actually an E-Book?
• iTablet: Apple’s Killer App for Higher Ed
• iFugly

That’s one conclusion you can draw from a new survey showing that people who own Apple (AAPL) handsets are more willing to pay for stuff than the average Internet surfer.

It’s a U.K. survey, conducted by the Olswang media law firm, but my hunch is that you’d see similar results in the U.S. And given that consumers look much less likely to pay for stuff than publishers and distributors would like, it’s worth chewing on. Guardian:

The survey showed that 58% of people would pay to access online a film just released in cinemas, 52% would pay for access to a film that will not be on DVD for at least two months and 40% would pay to access a film which is already on DVD or pay-TV. Looking at solely iPhone users, however, those figures jump to 73%, 67% and 54% respectively….

News content, however, remains a tough online sell. The survey asked how willing consumers would be to buy a newspaper article or column which could be read on a computer or portable device such as a phone or e-reader. Only 19% of respondents expressed any willingness to pay–though that did increase to 30% among iPhone users.

I’ve repeatedly been skeptical that consumers will pay for something solely because it’s on a mobile device–this is the key idea behind the magazine industry’s digital plans–but I do think there are some cases where this might work.

My own anecdotal confirmation: My household just dropped $6 for three Pixar shorts for an iPhone 3G in a desperate attempt to provide some electronic babysitting/soothing. This, despite the fact that everything we bought is also available for free on YouTube. When you need the stuff, you can’t be dependent on a wireless connection.

Here’s one of the clips we spent $1.99 on:

According to NPD Group’s latest Mobile Phone Track study, price cuts on devices like Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone and RIM’s (RIMM) Blackberry Curve inspired a three percent decline in the average price for all cellphones in the third quarter of 2009. The overall average purchase price for mobile phones in the U.S. for the period: $85. A year ago it was $88.

An interesting trend given the fast-advancing feature sets and presumably high development costs of the new state-of-the-art smartphones we’re carrying around these days. For while these lower prices mean more sales for smartphone manufacturers and more subscribers for their carrier partners in the short term, they may well be undermining the smartphone’s price potential in the long term. It’s hard not to see the $299.99 Palm (PALM) Pixi for $24.99 on Amazon (AMZN) or the $499.99 Droid Eris for $49.99 on Overstock (OSTK) as having some deflationary impact once those retailers are done with them.

“That impact will continue,” NPD analyst Ross Rubin told me. “The iPhone 3G at $99 has created a benchmark that competitors are responding to with handsets such as the Droid Eris and Palm. Even where a handset is competing closer to the $200 mark, carriers and retailers are using buy-one-get-one promotions (that help lock in family plans). And retailers are discounting even value-priced smartphones further to drive store traffic and accessory sales.”

Rubin’s conclusion: “We will soon reach the point where the handset is a minor expense consideration and the required monthly data fees become the limiting factor in smartphone adoption.”

That’s nowhere near the one million iPhone 3Gs Apple (AAPL) sold in the first three days of the device’s launch in 2008. Nor is it the 13,500-a-day Apple sold during the first 74 days of the original iPhone’s debut. Disappointing to say the least — even if there are already an estimated 1.5 million to two million gray-market iPhones in use in China.

“We view the 5k units as soft,” Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster said in a note to clients this morning. “Using the Jun-07 U.S. launch as a comparison we would have expected about 30k units….We originally thought China would contribute about 1-2m iPhones to our 36m unit estimate for 2010. The launch runrate of about 1,500 units per day would suggest 550k units per year.”

Nonetheless, Munster is maintaining expectations. “We are maintaining our overall numbers,” the analyst notes, “despite the soft China launch based on our belief that other wild cards remain for upside to our iPhone units in CY10 including the rollout to new carriers. We believe that eventually China will emerge as a major market for iPhone sales but it could take a year or two to gain meaningful unit traction as it did in the U.S.”

[Image credit: Mobile163.com]

“The commission has endorsed the local sale of the iPhone and the launch of its service within the limits of the law,” said Lee Tae-hee, a spokesman of the Korea Communications Commission. “If Apple includes location based-related details as a form of an agreement to its strategic partners such as KT, Apple’s iPhone can give location-related services here.”

Great news for Apple (AAPL). The South Korean market is a robust one, and analysts say that with the right carrier partner, Cupertino could be looking at sales over the first year ranging from 500,000 to two million. That said, they note that competing with the likes of Samsung and LG on their home turf won’t be easy. Between them, they control about 70 percent of the South Korean handset market.

“There seem to be a lot of people waiting for iPhones to go on sale here but it will not be easy for Apple to crack the Korean market as Samsung and LG already dominate the market with competitive phones,” said Jae Lee, analyst at Daiwa Securities in Seoul. “It will be difficult for Apple to steal market share significantly from the Korean makers in the short term but the iPhone could still be a threat to Samsung and LG in the long term.”

When the iPhone finally does arrive at market in South Korea, it will likely be with KT (formerly known as Korea Telecom) as a carrier partner. As Dan Butterfield over at iPhonAsia notes, KT CFO Yeon-hak Kim suggested as much this past summer. “Apple iPhone will be in our smartphone line-up,” he said in August. “iPhone will help to expand the smartphone market and will contribute to increasing the ARPU (average revenue per user).”

KT officials are telling the Korea Times that they’re looking at a November launch date. “KT has been in talks with Apple to introduce iPhones,” said a KT official. “Sometime in November, the latest iPhone model dubbed as ‘iPhone 3GS’ and its previous model will be commercialized. KT and Apple will decide on the coverage of location-based services.”

“Based on our channel checks, the iPhone remains the best selling device at AT&T with both the new $200/$300 iPhone 3GS and $100 legacy iPhone selling very well,” Piper Jaffary analyst Gene Munster said in a research note today.

“In July, our checks had indicated store managers were strongly recommending the legacy iPhone,” Munster notes, “as we believe this was partially driven by store representatives hoping to make the sale with the 3GS stocked out combined with efforts to reduce existing inventory levels of the legacy iPhone. However, in August, our checks indicate store managers are increasingly recommending the 3GS, and we believe this is driven by improved availability of the 3GS at most AT&T stores.”

Munster summarizes: “Overall, the iPhone remains the best selling device and our August checks indicate the iPhone took share from BlackBerry, the Nokia E71x, and most other competitor products. Finally, in our checks at Best Buy, store managers indicated the iPhone was their best selling device with stores selling out of stock as soon as they received the Apple smartphones.”

A bullish assessment, with an even more bullish conclusion: Munster says he expects Apple (AAPL) to ship seven million iPhones in the quarter. If that’s truly the case, Apple should have no trouble beating Wall Street’s expectations for its current quarter despite the gloomy economy.

One last point worth noting here: Munster is not bullish on Apple’s event tomorrow. He describes it as a “non-event,” though he seems convinced Steve Jobs will host it. “We expect Steve Jobs to introduce a new iPod lineup with a new iPod touch, new nanos, and a new classic, with cameras in the new models,” he notes. “We expect the stock to trade off on a lack of surprising announcements.”

“Based on our channel checks, the iPhone remains the best selling device at AT&T with both the new $200/$300 iPhone 3GS and $100 legacy iPhone selling very well,” Piper Jaffary analyst Gene Munster said in a research note today.

“In July, our checks had indicated store managers were strongly recommending the legacy iPhone,” Munster notes, “as we believe this was partially driven by store representatives hoping to make the sale with the 3GS stocked out combined with efforts to reduce existing inventory levels of the legacy iPhone. However, in August, our checks indicate store managers are increasingly recommending the 3GS, and we believe this is driven by improved availability of the 3GS at most AT&T stores.”

Munster summarizes: “Overall, the iPhone remains the best selling device and our August checks indicate the iPhone took share from BlackBerry, the Nokia E71x, and most other competitor products. Finally, in our checks at Best Buy, store managers indicated the iPhone was their best selling device with stores selling out of stock as soon as they received the Apple smartphones.”

A bullish assessment, with an even more bullish conclusion: Munster says he expects Apple (AAPL) to ship seven million iPhones in the quarter. If that’s truly the case, Apple should have no trouble beating Wall Street’s expectations for its current quarter despite the gloomy economy.

One last point worth noting here: Munster is not bullish on Apple’s event tomorrow. He describes it as a “non-event,” though he seems convinced Steve Jobs will host it. “We expect Steve Jobs to introduce a new iPod lineup with a new iPod touch, new nanos, and a new classic, with cameras in the new models,” he notes. “We expect the stock to trade off on a lack of surprising announcements.”

The app offers many of the features offered in its standalone GPS devices, including navigation help, trip-planning tools and multi-language support. “True, it’s not the first app offering turn-by-turn driving instructions for the iPhone 3G or iPhone 3GS–but it is from TomTom, an industry heavyweight that is finally delivering on years of rumor and speculation,” Thomas Ricker of Engadget writes.

On Silicon Alley Insider, Dan Frommer calls it “the $100 iPhone app you might actually buy,” adding, “Assuming you use it for more than 10 months, the one-time fee will end up being a better purchase than other similar apps, which run as $10 per month subscriptions.”

Read the rest of this post on the original site

“We still have a backlog of subscribers but it’s not unmanageable and we get shipments every week. We’ll be short for a while but we’re catching up.”

– Sprint Nextel CFO Bob Brust, June 24, 2009

[This post was updated at 12:36 with comment from Sprint.]

Sprint best step up its marketing efforts for the Pre because according to Pali Research, demand for Palm’s new device is slowing, and quickly.

During the week ending June 26, Pali estimates that Sprint sold 50,000-60,000 Pre handsets. In the weeks that followed, Sprint sold “less than 40,000,” and then, “over 30,000”–again, according to Pali. Now the research outfit says Pre sales have declined by another 5,000 units.

“We really aren’t sure what Sprint is waiting for in stepping up the ad campaign but Palm Pre sales have continued to slow over the past two weeks and we believe Sprint is currently selling roughly 25,000 per week, down from over 30,000 two weeks ago and over 50,000 in late June,” Pali analyst Walter Piecyk said in a research note this morning. “Advertising could increase in the coming weeks but we are headed into August and there is a new BlackBerry now vying for the attention of wireless customers.”

And don’t forget that $99 Apple iPhone 3G.

Piecyk concludes by suggesting that Sprint (S), by failing to market the hell out of the Pre, is fumbling the best opportunity to come its way in a while.

“Slowing sales cannot be helping CEO Dan Hesse’s ability to extend the exclusive period for the Pre as Palm (PALM) likely views a Verizon launch as something that could materially stimulate sales,” Piecyk said.

“Hesse has never been one to resort to price cuts but we wonder if dropping the Pre to $99 could reignite sales,” the analyst continued. “…Sprint’s future is certainly not tied to the Pre but this is a great product that could highlight their data network. We believe they are squandering this opportunity over the past few weeks. Sprint is still not in a strong enough position to let good opportunities pass them by.”

And what does Sprint think of that assessment? Not much. Reached for comment, a spokesperson told me: “we are very pleased with the performance of the Pre and the excitement it’s drawn; we are selling all the quantities that are being delivered to us and we are ramping up advertising this month — did you see the full-page ads this week comparing the value and performance of the Pre to the iPhone? — and we are expanding availability of the handset at Best Buy, Radio Shack and online, with future expansion of availability planned. As Dan Hesse noted in California today, it takes a number of months — through a whole ramped-up sales cycle — to determine the real performance of a handset in the marketplace. Folks like to speculate and toss around ideas on the internet all the time, but the truth is Sprint is very happy with how the Pre is doing.”

Demand for Apple’s iPhone 3GS, which topped one million handsets sold in its first weekend at market, has surpassed even the company’s presumably aggressive targets. Reporting earnings Tuesday, Apple (AAPL) said it sold 5.2 million iPhones in its third quarter and finally copped to something that’s long been apparent to anyone who’s been keeping an eye on its iPhone availability widget: Demand for the new iPhone 3GS is far outpacing supply.

“The iPhone 3GS is currently constrained in virtually every country we’re shipping in…and we’re working very hard to fulfill that demand,” Apple COO Tim Cook said during a conference call with analysts, adding that if the situation persists, some overseas launches might be delayed.

“In terms of affecting the country rollout, I believe the vast majority of the countries that we are selling the 3G in we will be selling the 3GS I think by the end of the fiscal quarter,” Cook said. “It may move a date by a few weeks here or there…I don’t want to predict today when supply and demand will balance. I know that it will not balance in the short term. And I don’t want to give a prediction, because as you can guess it’s very difficult to gauge the demand without having the supply there to find out what it is.”

Cook added that Apple expects to bring the 3GS to most countries where the iPhone 3G is currently available by the end of the September quarter.

One last point worth noting here: Voracious demand for the iPhone has made the device the second-largest contributor to Apple’s bottom line, surpassing the iPod for the first time. Revenue for the iPod for the quarter slipped 11 percent to $1.492 billion, down from $1.678 billion. Meanwhile iPhone revenue grew 303 percent to $1.689 billion, accounting for 19 percent of the $8.3 billion in revenue Apple reported in its third fiscal quarter.

Amazing to think the device debuted just two years ago. If Apple’s business model is as, as Steve Jobs likes to say, a stool that rests on three legs–the Mac, the iPod and the iPhone–then it’s increasingly becoming one that never wobbles.

According to iSuppli, the cost of materials for the 16 GB version of the iPhone is $172.46, plus another $6.50 in manufacturing costs, for a total production cost of $178.96. The firm notes that this is comparable to its estimate last year that the 8 GB iPhone 3G had a production cost of $174.33. (Note that both models are priced at $199.)

As you likely know already, the key hardware differentiators in the new model are video capture, an upgrade in the camera to 3 MP from 2 MP, and a built in digital compass.

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In an investment note issued this morning, Munster estimated that the company sold 750,000 iPhones over the weekend–25 percent fewer than the one million units of the iPhone 3G model Apple sold during the launch of that device last July, but 50 percent more than the 500,000 he originally predicted.

“The only true benchmark for judging the launch of the iPhone 3G S will be the time it takes Apple to sell 1 million units. Apple sold 1 million 1st generation iPhones in 74 days and 1 million iPhone 3G units in 3 days. We are uncertain whether or not Apple will announce the 1 millionth iPhone 3G S; regardless, we are increasingly confident in our 5 million iPhone unit estimate for the June 09 quarter following the price drop of the iPhone 3G from $199 to $99 in early June and the launch for the iPhone 3G S, where interest in the device surpassed our expectations.”

A few other points worth noting from Munster’s note. The analyst surveyed 256 customers at Apple (AAPL) stores in New York and Minneapolis over the weekend about their preferred OS, the size of the iPhone they were purchasing and the phones from which they were upgrading, among other things (see table below; click to enlarge). In the 256, he found a mix of 66 percent Mac users and 34 percent PC, similar to what he found last year (61 percent Mac, 39 percent PC).

Of those surveyed, 43 percent purchased the high-end 32-gigabyte iPhone 3GS, less than the 66 percent of buyers who purchased the 16GB iPhone 3G last year. And 56 percent were upgrading from an old iPhone–up from 38 percent last year. “We believe this shows Apple is developing brand loyalty not enjoyed by other mobile phone makers,” Munster notes.

“At the outset of the company’s iPhone initiative, one of Apple’s goals was to develop the kind of brand loyalty it has developed among Mac and iPod customers, and we believe they are succeeding thus far. As the footprint expands, and loyalty expands as well, Apple will increasingly enjoy a base of customers who regularly upgrade to the newest version of the mobile phones the company releases in what appears to be an annual cycle.”

Schiller announces iPhone 3Gs. S is for speed. “This is a really fast iPhone.” Loads apps and Web sites very, very quickly. NYTimes.com loads more than 3x as fast. Schiller says its about 2x faster than the iPhone 3G. As expected, the device features a brand new 3 megapixel autofocus camera. Auto-focus. Auto-white balance. Auto-exposure. Tap-to-focus. Improved low-light sensitivity. Auto-macro. “The best thing about this camera is it also captures video.” 30 FPS VGA with audio. Auto-focus, etc. Quick demo of video shows that quality is impressive. Videos are stored alongside pix in the picture application. Edit and share videos with the tap of a finger. “And if my carrier supports it, I can even send these things via MMS,” Schiller quips in a poke at AT&T.

Also new in the 3Gs: Voice Control. Features a brand new UI that displays the commands you can use. Some examples: “Call John.” “Call 414.555.5555.” “Play Songs by The Who.” “Play more songs like this” (using Genius feature). Also on-board in the new device, a built-in digital compass that’s capable of orienting to the direction a user is heading.

Schiller rattling off new features. Improved security. Improved accessibility features. Improved battery life. 5 hours 3G talk time. 30 hours audio. “This is the fastest, most powerful iPhone yet,” says Schiller. Price? $199 for 16GB. $299 for 32GB. Both available in black and white. Apple (AAPL) will keep the current 8GB 3G on the market at $99. Lots of applause. That $99 3G is available TODAY. When will the 3Gs arrive at market? June 19 for initial launch and then a fast and massive roll-out to 80 countries.

Lights dim to view a new iPhone ad. Big selling point is clearly video. Schiller returns to the stage for the warp-up. Will there be a “one more thing?” Doesn’t look like it. Now thanking all the Apple teams involved in these new products. And … that’s all she wrote.

Check out our WWDC 2009 Full-Coverage special feature for more WWDC news.

The Palm (PALM) Pre officially went on sale this morning, and judging from initial reports–and my experience at a local Northern California Sprint store–neither demand or supply was particularly overwhelming. Certainly, lines for the device were far shorter than those that extended from Apple (AAPL) stores for the launches of the iPhone and the iPhone 3G.

Arriving outside my local Sprint (S) store about an hour after they first opened, I found not a queue of eager Pre-buyers, but two kids making forts out of a few Pre shipping boxes left outside the store. Inside the store, I found a group of nine people waiting in line to add their names to a waiting list for the device, which was already sold out at this location. A Sprint rep refused to tell me how many Pres had been sold this morning, but admitted that the shipment had been a small one.

The situation is apparently the same across the country. The Boston Globe reports that Sprint’s Back Bay store sold out of its 55 Pres by 11 AM. An informal survey by 24/7 Wall Street reveals sell outs or fast-dwindling supplies of the device at Sprint and Best Buy stores in Chicago, Houston, San Francisco and Los Angeles. Four of the five Best Buy stores I contacted reported selling out of the Pre very quickly; one representative told me his store had just four of the devices and he believed that to be the case at many other locations.

Sprint stores I spoke with in LA, Chicago and Boston told me they’d sold out by late morning.

Q: How many names on the list? A: “We’re not allowed to say.” A reader tells me that the line outside the W. Division Street in Chicago was at least 50 people long, and that the store started wait-listing people somewhere around #36. Another reader reports a line of about 20 people outside an Emeryville, CA Sprint store. That same reader claims a clerk told him the store had 60 Pres on hand. Still another reader reports that the line outside Sprint’s Market Street store in San Francisco started at 6 AM this morning. There were a dozen or so folks in line by about 7:30 AM. Finally, another reader reports that a Sprint store in San Francisco’s Castro district had a line of about 40 people when she showed up to get in line at 7 AM. That location, too, sold out quickly.

Four phones at the local Best Buy? Stores in Marin, LA and Chicago sold out within hours? Makes you wonder if Palm and Sprint are purposely constraining supply to foster an image of overwhelming demand.

In an interview with Wall Street Journal editorial staff, he said the negotiations to bring the iPhone to Russia last fall were like “the negotiations of a junkie and a narcotics salesman,” because of the pent-up demand for the device.

But “Apple was operating on a take-it-or-leave-it strategy,” he said, resulting in a high price–about $1,000–that puts it out of reach for many Russians, since operators in the country don’t subsidize handsets.

The largest wireless operators in Russia all offer the iPhone 3G now, but they’ve only sold “a few hundred thousand” units, Mr. Shamolin said, because of the price tag and the dwindling supply of consumer financing amid the global financial crisis. Such credit “was one way to sell iPhones and that went away with the crisis,” Mr. Shamolin said.

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Too bad in a way, because lots of folks were hoping that Apple might announce its arrival, albeit late, to the netbook party.

“Late” in this case is no huge drawback. The market for netbooks, defined here as ultraportable but still full-functioning personal computers, has barely moved out of infancy. The early models from industry leaders like Asus have been solid demonstrations of what’s coming, and for some uses they are just fine.

Jobs has famously said Apple (AAPL) can’t make a netbook that isn’t crap, at least at the price point the market currently supports. But Apple doesn’t sell its other computers at the prices PC makers charge in most cases. Its excellent software and reasonably solid hardware have always earned a premium.

Apple could and should take the netbook genre forward in ways that will make these devices utterly compelling. To see where the company should go, we only need to look back a decade–to Apple’s Message Pad, a.k.a. the Newton–and then extrapolate forward in fairly obvious ways.

The Newton was far, far ahead of its time: essentially a large-screen PDA that came bundled with useful applications and boasted handwriting recognition. Unfortunately, the early versions of the handwriting feature were so clumsy, sparking ridicule that included a hilarious send-up in the Doonesbury comic strip, that the device’s reputation scarcely improved even though the software did.

For reasons that remain mysterious, Apple killed the project in 1998. I suspect (with absolutely no proof) that this may have had something to do with the company’s rapprochement with Microsoft the previous year, when Microsoft helped save Apple by agreeing to keep selling its Office software for the Mac.

The Newton technology and its progeny were absorbed into Apple, and pieces have emerged in various ways over the years. But the fundamental idea of the Newton was a smart one, and today’s processing power, storage, connectivity and software give it more value than ever.

The rumor mill has Apple offering up a larger-screen iPod Touch sometime this year. If that’s all it is, then Apple will have missed a big opportunity.

What might an Apple netbook–let’s call it the NewBook (not the NewtBook, which would make people think of Newt Gingrich)–look like? And what might we do with it? The possibilities dazzle.

First on the basic hardware front, the Apple NewBook would use Intel’s Atom processor or one of the emerging competitors from AMD and other chip companies. It would come with enough RAM and flash memory to be a reasonably serious computer, running OS X, and would boast a real keyboard plus a variety of standard ports. A built-in still and video camera, plus a microphone, would be highly useful as well.

Second, the larger screen would offer more than the touch screen in the iPhone and newer Mac laptops. Beyond using finger-driven gestures to navigate, it would have tablet features, including handwriting recognition, annotation and much more. (Several PC makers are expected to announce tablet-netbooks at this week’s Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas.)

Third, given that that our data increasingly live in the cloud and on home and office servers, the NewBook would contain several radios: fast Wi-Fi, of course, but also GPS and one or more connections to high-speed 3G mobile networks. (Apple being its typical control-freak self, unfortunately, the 3G would likely be limited to one carrier.)

What could we (and Apple) do with such a device? Lots.

Beyond standard personal computing, Apple’s netbook could be an excellent e-book. I have an Amazon Kindle, which I like a great deal (disclosure: I’m an Amazon shareholder), but Apple is in a perfect position to grab a major share of this quickly growing market. The company could even sell books through the iTunes Music Store, something it could do now given that the iPhone and iPod Touch can be used as adequate (though the screen’s too small) e-books today.

The Apple NewBook could also emerge as an ideal personal entertainment system and solid gaming device. The iPhone is fine for watching some kinds of video on airplanes, but I’d welcome a somewhat larger screen. For gamers, the iPhone is already becoming an intriguing platform, but the NewBook’s larger size and processing power would undoubtedly spark an aftermarket for hardware controllers and other input tools as well as great software.

I’m describing the kind of machine I’d gladly carry on short trips in lieu of my MacBook Pro, which I use at home and at the office. But before I adopted it for that kind of use, I’d need dead-easy, robust and absolutely reliable synchronization with the 15-inch laptop and whatever data I choose to keep in the cloud. Given the mess Apple has made of Mobile Me, my money would be on third-party developers.

There’s one thing I’d hope Apple would not do: lock down the netbook the way it’s locked down the iPhone and iPod Touch. By all means, Apple could and should use the iTunes store to sell third-party applications. But by no means should it force customers to jump through hoops to jailbreak the devices so they can use what they bought the way they want to use it.

Apple was late to the MP3 party, but it beat everyone else with a system that changed the game. Could we see a similar breakthrough with its netbook?