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		<title>Why the Yahoogle Deal Will Likely Launch&#8211;And Be Coming to an Internet Near You on October 9</title>
		<link>http://allthingsd.com/20080919/why-the-yahoogle-deal-will-likely-launch-and-be-coming-to-an-internet-near-you-on-october-9/</link>
		<comments>http://allthingsd.com/20080919/why-the-yahoogle-deal-will-likely-launch-and-be-coming-to-an-internet-near-you-on-october-9/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 19 Sep 2008 10:08:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kara Swisher</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Media]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[advertising]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[antitrust]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BoomTown]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[digital]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[DOJ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eric Schmidt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Google]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hal Varian]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hamlet]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Jimmy Carter]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justice Department]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kara Swisher]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Microsoft]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New York Times]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sandy Litvack]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[search]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Thomas Barnett]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tim Armstrong]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yahoo]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kara.allthingsd.com/?p=4080</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Yesterday, BoomTown took a rather strong stand against Google and its recent aggressive efforts to defend its outsourcing deal to sell some of Yahoo's search ads.

Given that the pair have a more than 80 percent combined market share in the search business, I and many others--advertisers, publishers and state and federal regulators--are a bit nervous about further concentration of market power in one set of hands, even if they are such Googley hands.

But in the interest of fairness and because I like to argue with myself, here is a counterpoint with three key reasons why Google and Yahoo might hold firm in launching the partnership, which sources said is likely to start on Oct. 9.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://kara.allthingsd.com/files/2008/09/comingsoon.jpg"><img src="http://kara.allthingsd.com/files/2008/09/comingsoon-300x218.jpg" alt="" title="comingsoon" width="250" height="170" class="alignright size-medium wp-image-4085" /></a></p>
<p>Yesterday, BoomTown took a <a href="http://kara.allthingsd.com/20080918/too-powerful-google-thumbs-its-nose-at-everyone-good-luck-with-that-eric/">rather strong stand against Google and its recent aggressive efforts to defend its outsourcing deal</a> to sell some of Yahoo&#8217;s search advertising.</p>
<p>Given that the pair have a more than 80 percent combined market share in the search business, I and many others&#8211;advertisers, publishers and state and federal regulators&#8211;are a bit nervous about further concentration of market power in one set of hands, even if they are such <em>Googley</em> hands.</p>
<p>But in the interest of fairness and because I like to argue with myself&#8211;combined with some insights from some smart people I have kibitzed with on the issue&#8211;here is a counterpoint with three key reasons why Google and Yahoo might hold firm in launching the partnership, which sources said is likely to start on <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_9">Oct. 9</a>.</p>
<p><strong>1.) The Justice Department is not actually serious about taking on Google.</strong></p>
<p>While it is true that the government has hired seasoned litigator Sandy Litvack&#8211;the former antitrust chief in the Jimmy Carter administration&#8211;to consider whether it has a case against the controversial partnership, the move by the DOJ&#8217;s antitrust unit might be more political coverage than anything else.</p>
<p><a href="http://kara.allthingsd.com/files/2008/09/10micr2190.jpg"><img src="http://kara.allthingsd.com/files/2008/09/10micr2190.jpg" alt="" title="10micr2190" width="190" height="266" class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-4086" /></a></p>
<p>Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust Thomas Barnett (pictured here), who will likely be leaving that post after the November election, has not been much of a trustbuster, to say the least, taking a mostly hands-off attitude toward business regulation.</p>
<p>Thus, he might be making the move to placate intense lobbying by Microsoft (MSFT) and to look like the DOJ&#8217;s antitrust unit can act.</p>
<p>Interestingly, Barnett had, according to a <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/10/business/10microsoft.html?_r=1&#038;hp&#038;oref=slogin">New York Times piece last year</a>, &#8220;urged state prosecutors to reject a confidential antitrust complaint filed by Google that is tied to a consent decree that monitors Microsoft&#8217;s behavior. Google has accused Microsoft of designing its latest operating system, Vista, to discourage the use of Google&#8217;s desktop search program.&#8221;</p>
<p>And even more interesting, Barnett previously worked for a law firm that repped Microsoft on antitrust issues (although Barnett did not work on Microsoft cases).</p>
<p><strong>2.) The Justice Department will lose if it decides to make a case against Google.</strong></p>
<p>Let&#8217;s be clear&#8211;Google (GOOG) has done nothing wrong yet, because the Yahoo deal has not yet begun.</p>
<p>Well, except that it has been scarily successful in its primary business of search.</p>
<p>Google has argued that such success is no crime and that the deal would have strong user benefits.</p>
<p>The company has also argued that working with Yahoo (YHOO) will not raise online ad prices, part of Google&#8217;s basic argument that its auction-style business model where advertisers set the price makes that impossible.</p>
<p>But what its critics are essentially asserting is that, because of its dominance, Google should simply not be allowed to strike a partnership with the second largest player, Yahoo.</p>
<p>Fears include that rise in online ad prices, a Google control over the market that would make it impossible for others to compete and an increased ability to dictate terms to customers.</p>
<p>But, Google argues, that&#8217;s all speculative and unknowable until the partnership with Yahoo launches.</p>
<p>Thus, there&#8217;s not a whole lot for the Justice Department to hang a case on, in contrast to its case against Microsoft, which landed in court because of bullying behavior that <em>actually</em> took place before the case was waged.</p>
<p>So why should Google run away, when there is no tangible proof of abuse?</p>
<p>Better still, if the DOJ did take Google on and Google won, the Justice Department would be hard-pressed to come at Google again for a good long time.</p>
<p><a href="http://kara.allthingsd.com/files/2008/07/yahoogle.jpg"><img src="http://kara.allthingsd.com/files/2008/07/yahoogle.jpg" alt="" title="yahoogle" width="192" height="58" class="alignright size-medium wp-image-2358" /></a></p>
<p><strong>3.) If Google caves and walks away, it damages Yahoo and makes for a bad precedent.</strong></p>
<p>It is not likely that Google wants to make an enemy of Yahoo, because even in its weakened state, Yahoo is a better to have as a friend than as a foe.</p>
<p>And taking away an expected $800 million Yahoo estimates it will make in added revenue on the deal is not any way to treat a friend.</p>
<p>In addition, one could argue that walking away now is premature. As Google&#8217;s power grows, there will never be a better chance for it to win its arguments.</p>
<p>And if Google gives in to DOJ pressure now, essentially admitting it is too powerful, it might have to concede one thing after the next in the future&#8211;from distribution deals to acquisitions to whatever it might try to do.</p>
<p>Finally, while I still believe Google should not be in business with Yahoo, I think it is indeed going to stick to its typically stubborn guns, launch on Oct. 9 and then make tweaks that regulators might request based on how the partnership goes.</p>
<p><a href="http://kara.allthingsd.com/files/2008/09/hamlet.jpg"><img src="http://kara.allthingsd.com/files/2008/09/hamlet-200x300.jpg" alt="" title="hamlet" width="200" height="300" class="alignright size-medium wp-image-4088" /></a></p>
<p>But, in order to do that most smoothly, it might be a good idea for Google execs to stop making so much noise defending themselves and to resist the urge to attack Microsoft so loudly.</p>
<p>It might even take a clue from the unusually quiet Yahoo, from whom not a peep has been heard on the issue.</p>
<p>Google could do with some of that self-control.</p>
<p>Because that famous line from &#8220;Hamlet&#8221; certainly applies: The search giant doth protest too much, methinks.</p>
<p>(By the way, besides a press conference by CEO Eric Schmidt this week on the Yahoogle deal, here are two Google posts defending the deal  on its public policy blog. One is by Google <a href="http://googlepublicpolicy.blogspot.com/2008/09/searchignite-study-on-ad-prices-and.html">Chief Economist Hal Varian</a> and another by <a href="http://googlepublicpolicy.blogspot.com/search?q=tim+armstrong">U.S. ad head Tim Armstrong</a>.</p>
<p><em>Please see <a href="http://allthingsd.com/about/kara-swisher/ethics/">this disclosure</a> related to me and Google.</em></p>
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