Consider this from J.P. Morgan analyst Rod Hall: “No matter how good the product, we believe that penetrating the channel will continue to be difficult for Palm and will only get tougher as more competitive touch handsets come to market through the year.”

And this from UBS analyst Maynard Um: “Demand weakness is not necessarily a surprise as we noted earlier that a slowing US net add environment would likely have the greatest impact on Palm given its small base. However, the magnitude is slightly surprising to us given management’s prior conviction & visibility to orders. While Palm cites deferral of orders to future periods, WebOS demand will likely be called into question. With the US market being Palm’s best opportunity for more levered growth, we are more concerned with the future growth opportunity.”

Finally, there’s this from Deutsche Bank analyst Jonathan Goldberg, who says it’s going to take a long, long time for Palm’s fundamentals to improve, given its weak traction in the smartphone market: “Our concern now is that bad publicity feeds on itself, with the poor stock price performance denting Palm’s brand and causing potential carrier partners to lose interest,” he wrote in a note to clients.

“There are also potential upside risks as well including the potential for Palm to be acquired, but we think the poor showing to date limits the company’s negotiating leverage,” Goldberg added. Ultimately, we think Palm has the resources to survive and potentially build its position back, but it will take considerable time and they face serious risks in the interim.”

Serious risks, indeed. If Palm (PALM) has fared this poorly in the smartphone market of 2009, how will it fare in the smartphone market of 2010 and the more formidable rivals the year brings with it?

It was hard enough to compete against Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone and RIM’s (RIMM) BlackBerry last year. In 2010, Palm must compete with these popular smartphones and a host of new Android phones, not to mention some impressive Windows Mobile 7 devices heading to market. No easy task, particularly when carrier partners like Verizon (VZ) and Sprint (S) don’t quite seem to be giving Palm devices the marketing push they need to succeed.

Piper Jaffray analyst T. Michael Walkley says he has been “slightly disappointed” with initial Palm (PALM) sales at Verizon (VZ), observing that sell-through so far has been at best “modest.”

RBC analyst Mike Abramsky is of a similar opinion. “Despite an initial first day ‘pop,’ Palm’s soft launch sell-through at Verizon was modest (ex 1-2/store/day),” he wrote in a research note to clients this week.

“However,” Abramsky elaborated, “as of Feb 9, checks show momentum steadily improving (now 3-4/store/day)….Broad awareness continues to be Palm’s challenge, with many unaware of Palm despite the marketing campaign. Some Verizon reps remain unfamiliar with webOS.”

Deutsche Bank analyst Jonathan Goldberg has also been unimpressed by initial sales of the Pre Plus and Pixi Plus at Verizon. He, like Abramsky, contends that more aggressive promotion from both Verizon and Palm is what’s needed to bolster demand.

“We have conducted a phone survey of 210 Verizon outlets in 38 states to gauge Palm and smartphone trends,” Goldberg explained in a client note issued this morning. “We have found that Verizon has yet to fully engage in promoting Palm products, however we did see a clear improvement as the survey progressed, indicative of ongoing training efforts.”

So Palm will be well-served with Verizon as a partner, but its challenge, as always, is one of awareness — particularly with expectations for a Verizon iPhone running high. Once it overcomes that, increasing carrier momentum should follow.

That’s the word from Deutsche Bank analyst Jonathan Goldberg, who believes there’s a good chance the company will be acquired in the next two years.

In a note to clients this week, Goldberg argues that Palm (PALM), with its new Verizon (VZ) distribution deal in hand and nearly nearly 1,300 webOS applications in its App Catalog, is building the sort of market momentum that would be attractive to a larger company looking to break into the mobile device market–or shake it up.

“Big consumer electronics companies need some way to participate in the market and most of them have failed to come up with a successful strategy,” Goldberg writes. “Street consensus appears to be that Palm will be acquired in the next year or two, which given the current environment we think could be a reasonable possibility.”

But to make it a reality, Palm must first demonstrate its viability. “We think Palm needs to prove it can be a stand-alone entity, a viable business in its own right. We clearly think that it can.”

Clearly. Goldberg believes Palm will likely sell 600 thousand webOS devices through Verizon this quarter, and he says that Palm’s App Catalog, whose applications already outnumber those in Nokia (NOK) and Microsoft (MSFT) stores, will soon exceed those available in RIM’s (RIMM) App World and possibly the Android Market as well. That would certainly be enough to elicit an acquisitive glance from a company with mobile ambitions. Just who that would be, however, Goldberg doesn’t speculate about.

Of course, Goldberg is far from the first analyst to posit Palm as a takeover target. I’ve written here before about speculation that the company might be acquired by Dell (DELL) or Nokia.

“We believe the press reports late Thursday afternoon that Verizon would not launch the Palm Pre are incorrect,” Goldberg wrote. “Our checks continue to point to healthy carrier demand for the Pre early in calendar 2010. We believe Palm has placed orders with the supply chain for another version of the Pre with features highly consistent with a Verizon launch.”

Over at Morgan Keegan & Co, Tavis McCourt was equally dubious. “Palm reiterated its FY2010 guidance, which we believe REQUIRES a launch at Verizon (you just can’t get there with just Sprint and AT&T),” he wrote. “Verizon has carried just about every Palm product in its history, and the Pre is clearly the best. We do not have insight as to the marketing support Palm will get from Verizon, but we see little risk in not getting a placement at this carrier. The timing of the rumor post-deal makes it equally as dubious as the timing of the ‘Nokia will buy Palm’ rumor during the roadshow.”

McCourt, it’s worth noting, believes the Pre will come to Verizon Wireless early next year. “Feb. holds the potential to be a strong Pre quarter as shipments to Sprint likely stabilize and distribution expands to Verizon Wireless (our assumption),” he explains. “Palm’s success at Sprint has typically been a good barometer for shipment trends at VZW and, with a postpaid sub base that’s roughly 3x as large as Sprint’s CDMA business, the market opportunity at VZW is much larger. However, Pre trends at Sprint were aided by the device’s near term exclusivity and a large base of existing Palm users upgrading their devices, both factors that VZW lacks.”

UPDATE: Jim Gerace, executive director of media relations at Verizon, tells E-Commerce Times that the company will offer the smartphone in January as planned.

UPDATED: Sources are telling Boy Genius that TheStreet.com’s report is bogus as well.

“We believe the press reports late Thursday afternoon that Verizon would not launch the Palm Pre are incorrect,” Goldberg wrote. “Our checks continue to point to healthy carrier demand for the Pre early in calendar 2010. We believe Palm has placed orders with the supply chain for another version of the Pre with features highly consistent with a Verizon launch.”

Over at Morgan Keegan & Co, Tavis McCourt was equally dubious. “Palm reiterated its FY2010 guidance, which we believe REQUIRES a launch at Verizon (you just can’t get there with just Sprint and AT&T),” he wrote. “Verizon has carried just about every Palm product in its history, and the Pre is clearly the best. We do not have insight as to the marketing support Palm will get from Verizon, but we see little risk in not getting a placement at this carrier. The timing of the rumor post-deal makes it equally as dubious as the timing of the ‘Nokia will buy Palm’ rumor during the roadshow.”

McCourt, it’s worth noting, believes the Pre will come to Verizon Wireless early next year. “Feb. holds the potential to be a strong Pre quarter as shipments to Sprint likely stabilize and distribution expands to Verizon Wireless (our assumption),” he explains. “Palm’s success at Sprint has typically been a good barometer for shipment trends at VZW and, with a postpaid sub base that’s roughly 3x as large as Sprint’s CDMA business, the market opportunity at VZW is much larger. However, Pre trends at Sprint were aided by the device’s near term exclusivity and a large base of existing Palm users upgrading their devices, both factors that VZW lacks.”

UPDATE: Jim Gerace, executive director of media relations at Verizon, tells E-Commerce Times that the company will offer the smartphone in January as planned.

UPDATED: Sources are telling Boy Genius that TheStreet.com’s report is bogus as well.

That’s the word from Deutsche Bank analyst Jonathan Goldberg, who says the smartphone is doing just fine.

“Palm’s stock has underperformed since their earnings announcement last month in the absence of any hard news,” Goldberg wrote in a research note Friday. “We think market fears about return rates, weekly order trends and applications development are off the mark. Our checks continue to point to solid demand and carrier interest.”

According to Goldberg, his checks also indicate that “…Palm has become a healthy momentum stock adding to volatility. Sifting through the noise, however, we believe the key trends are healthy. The August quarter is tracking ahead of our estimates. We think the Street is still underestimating the company’s improved execution and long-term operating leverage.”

That’s certainly possible, given the wide disagreement among analysts over sales and satisfaction. Perhaps when Palm (PALM) next reports earnings, it will release some hard sales numbers and put an end to this speculation once and for all.

It has not yet been given a price or a release date, but Palm’s forthcoming Pre handset continues to have a remarkably restorative effect on the company’s share price. It wasn’t so long ago that Palm shares were trading just above a dollar. Today, they’re hovering around $8.67, bouyed up by little more than the device’s Consumer Electronics Show debut, an uneventful media Webcast, some hyperbolic remarks from one of the company’s investors and the enthusiasm of a few bullish analysts. Among them, Deutsche Bank’s Chris Whitmore and Jonathan Goldberg, who boosted their price target on Palm (PALM) to $12 from $10 today claiming that Palm will not only ship the device on schedule, but will follow it up with other form factors. “Since their earnings release last week, we have conducted a round of checks on Palm and remain confident in the potential for their new Pre smartphone to turnaround the company’s results,” the two wrote in a note. “The Pre timetable seems on track at least, and both carrier and developer interest remains high….We also confirmed earlier checks and vague hints on their recent call that the company is working on other form factors which we could see in the market sooner than expected.”

Quite a vote of confidence. Though to be fair, it’s not shared by everyone. Certainly, Needham analyst Charlie Wolf is looking askance at claims that the Pre will turn out to be Palm’s iPhone. “The stock appears fully valued even if the Pre turns into a stunning success,” he wrote in a recent research note. “To have management tell it, WebOS is the best thing since sliced bread and the Pre is a thing of beauty. Obviously, with the platform launch still weeks away, it’s impossible to challenge them.”

As I write this, Palm is trading at $6.10–up an astonishing 85 percent since its big announcement. And it seems destined to go higher still, given the enthusiastic reception analysts have given it.

Deutsche Bank’s Jonathan Goldberg raised his rating on Palm (PALM) to Hold from Sell saying this morning that he is impressed with the Pre and the direction in which the company is now heading.

“Our thesis on Palm has been that its future is a binary outcome,” he wrote in a note to clients. “We are favorably impressed with the new device and more importantly with the new WebOS. We think the focus has now shifted from their mere survival to execution. The earnings model has the potential for significant earnings leverage, but our outlook is tempered by Palm’s history of missteps. We think they can ship 1m units FY09 and 4m in FY10. The stock has run significantly over the past two days reflecting this, but as we learn more about the popularity of the OS and the potential for them to actually ship a UMTS version of the Pre this year we will revisit our thesis.”

Obviously, there are a few noteworthy caveats in there. Still, Goldberg’s note is vastly different from the funereal notes analysts were writing about the company less than a month ago. Indeed, on Dec. 18, Canaccord Adams analyst Peter Misek essentially dismissed the company. “Due to increased competition in the industry, Palm has lost its place as a leading smartphone manufacturer and has gradually become less relevant as more competitors have introduced more innovative smartphone devices,” Misek said. “The company is financially distressed and lacks any viable future catalysts which could help restore profitability…. We believe that Palm has become largely irrelevant in the smartphone space due to a series of strategic errors and poor execution.”

Clearly, Palm’s situation has changed for the better. Now, let’s see for how long.

As I write this, Palm is trading at $6.10–up an astonishing 85 percent since its big announcement. And it seems destined to go higher still, given the enthusiastic reception analysts have given it.

Deutsche Bank’s Jonathan Goldberg raised his rating on Palm (PALM) to Hold from Sell saying this morning that he is impressed with the Pre and the direction in which the company is now heading.

“Our thesis on Palm has been that its future is a binary outcome,” he wrote in a note to clients. “We are favorably impressed with the new device and more importantly with the new WebOS. We think the focus has now shifted from their mere survival to execution. The earnings model has the potential for significant earnings leverage, but our outlook is tempered by Palm’s history of missteps. We think they can ship 1m units FY09 and 4m in FY10. The stock has run significantly over the past two days reflecting this, but as we learn more about the popularity of the OS and the potential for them to actually ship a UMTS version of the Pre this year we will revisit our thesis.”

Obviously, there are a few noteworthy caveats in there. Still, Goldberg’s note is vastly different from the funereal notes analysts were writing about the company less than a month ago. Indeed, on Dec. 18, Canaccord Adams analyst Peter Misek essentially dismissed the company. “Due to increased competition in the industry, Palm has lost its place as a leading smartphone manufacturer and has gradually become less relevant as more competitors have introduced more innovative smartphone devices,” Misek said. “The company is financially distressed and lacks any viable future catalysts which could help restore profitability…. We believe that Palm has become largely irrelevant in the smartphone space due to a series of strategic errors and poor execution.”

Clearly, Palm’s situation has changed for the better. Now, let’s see for how long.

Goldberg write in a research note that the company should print “strong unit numbers with weak profitability levels, similar to their results all year,” but contends that outcome is already in the stock.

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