Yesterday, TechCrunch’s U.K. blogger Mike Butcher spun the tale of buyer’s remorse run amok with a report that Time Warner online unit AOL was “seriously considering selling Bebo, the social network it acquired for $850 million only a year ago,” citing poor performance and a bad advertising market.

Later, AOL went on the record saying “there is no truth to this rumor,” although Butcher–in a third update to his piece–insisted otherwise from his sources.

In my favorite hedge ever, Butcher noted: “I’m not saying Bebo is formally on the block, but I am saying that a sale is something under consideration.”

Well, actually, no.

What is true, which Butcher did do an excellent job outlining, is that AOL most certainly overestimated the prospects for Bebo as an advertising and growth vehicle, hoping that Bebo’s interesting new media offerings–like its “KateModern” online series–combined with a social network, were the magic bullet.

It did not hurt that Bebo was then being sold to advertisers by its very deft top exec Joanna Shields, who is now head of AOL’s People Networks.

Thus, AOL woefully overpaid for it, especially if you look back from the current dire economic environment and also now realize that social-networking advertising is a little bit harder to get going than promised (a shock, I know).

No inside sources you talk to at AOL or Time Warner (TWX) will deny any of this today, and Time Warner CEO Jeff Bewkes has even said so publicly.

This was not exactly a secret then either. As I wrote right after the sale last March:

What’s AOL getting for its $850 million in cash to purchase social-networking site, Bebo?

A very attractive social-networking service and a very experienced exec who has been running it.

But, perhaps more importantly for those who focus on pesky numbers, not a whole lot of revenue and negligible profits, judging financial information I got a gander at, courtesy of sources at several companies that looked at funding or buying Bebo.

And the rest of the overall outlook for Bebo? A small but growing business, with nice user engagement with strong page views and minutes spent per session, but little traction beyond Britain and Ireland, and too small a presence in the critical U.S. market.

(Bebo is also strong in New Zealand, but BoomTown does not have to point out that that country is not exactly the kind of game-changer that AOL CEO Randy Falco mentioned in his email to the troops about the purchase.)”

And in another post I did at the time:

Thus, I am still trying to figure out why AOL–which was built on the pillars of community, communications and connectivity–has consistently not been able to leverage its still-valuable assets.

I suppose it is sexier to do a big, splashy deal, of course, which takes focus away–for a while at least–of the essential need to take hits, while doing the slow block-and-tackle work it will require to really build a strong ad and social network.

Buying Bebo, the third-ranked social network, for so much and trying to turbocharge it is a very lofty goal, of course, but the real problem with the acquisition is that it feels like an answer in search of a question.

While Bebo President Joanna Shields–who will enter the AOL exec team as part of the deal–and the Birches have clearly built a very interesting property, the weight of Falco’s calling it a “game-changer” on which AOL’s future rides could turn out to be much too much for Bebo to carry.

That is, especially with that heavy bag of Time Warner cash it is also shouldering.”

That’s why it takes about two seconds these days to uncover much residual anger within both AOL and Time Warner about the huge slug of cash that the company handed over to get Bebo, which mostly went to its quirky founders (who, many sources told BoomTown, thought they were underpaid!).

But, even so, that does not mean Time Warner is going to pull yet another stupid Internet trick–remember this was the company that sold itself to AOL for a song back in 2000, in what is now considered one of the worst merger deals ever–and sell Bebo for bupkis.

In fact, spending even more effort, it has been trying to use Bebo as the main vehicle to renovate all its communications assets, including its unsung AIM and ICQ instant messaging properties.

The center of the People Networks, run by Shields, Bebo is the third leg of the “new” AOL, as it has been recently touted, with its Platform-A ad unit and new niche content studio called MediaGlow as the other parts of the stool.

Will it all work? Will Time Warner change its mind? Will Shields give up? Will even the AOL brand continue?

“Who knows?” is the right answer, of course. With Facebook, MySpace, Yahoo (YHOO), Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOG), as well as Twitter and FriendFeed, all vying to be the consumer’s dashboard to the Web, no one actually does.

And, if Time Warner is truly interested in selling off AOL whole, as it has been trying to do mightily, you might wonder if it would suddenly change course and dismember it now, causing even more confusion, when it is already facing so many other more pressing complications–all for a lousy price in the current weak economic landscape?

I called it “insane” when AOL bought Bebo for so much last year. I’d be dubious if it would get crazier still.

But if you want to see Shields in action–be careful, as she apparently so persuasive she could probably sell a big bailout to a Republican–take a look at this video I did a while back before the AOL acquisition:

Now, apparently, it is time to meet EQAL, a “social entertainment company” that is still essentially the two guys–Greg Goodfried and Miles Beckett (pictured here. left to right)–who dreamed up LG15 and also the KateModern Web series.

Except, rather than operating out of their homes on a wing and a prayer, they are now armed with $5 million in funding.

That investment in the Sherman Oaks, Calif.-based start-up, which was announced in April, included some true Silicon Valley luminaries, such as entrepreneur Marc Andreessen, investor Ron Conway and former Googler Georges Harik, as well as Conrad Riggs and Spark Capital.

Sources also said Google’s (GOOG) Marissa Mayer is one of the new investors in EQAL.

With its small pile of cash, Beckett and Goodfried are planning new online shows–one of which will debut in September–as well as a number of other things, in yet another attempt to create a successful mesh between Hollywood and technology and thus yield a lucrative and lasting interactive hit.

If anyone can give it a try, it would be this pair, which unleashed LG15 upon the unsuspecting Web population in mid-2006.

Unsuspecting, largely because most people at first thought the user-generated-looking online video of the incessant jabbering of its attractive female lead right into a computer’s camera was real.

Instead, it was actually the “story of a group of young adults fighting against an evil secret society, the Order, that uses the blood of girls with a rare blood trait to extend the lives of a small group of Elders.”

And they also used Neutrogena products while doing it! (The skin care company was an early sponsor, and a scientist from Neutrogena was also written into the story.)

So with clean faces and over the course of its two-year run, LG15 ran to more than 550 episodes with 100 million views.

Beckett and Goodfried also launched KateModern on the Bebo social network in the U.K. a year ago, which also just concluded.

The “story of a group of British young adults investigating a creepy, New Age religion called ‘The Hymn of One’ that is actually a front for the Order” garnered 50 million views.

Well, it’s all disorder now, as EQAL tries to keep the hits coming without LG15, by working with writers, producers, media companies and advertisers to create new interactive shows that also have engaged online communities.

EQAL’s motto: “The Show Is Everywhere.”

Well, we’ll see, but here are Beckett and Goodfried–the former was a physician and the latter a lawyer in their previous lives–giving me a tour of their new office in Los Angeles’s “Valley,” and also sitting for a longish video interview about where content online is going.

That’s a question a lot of people in both Hollywood and Silicon Valley hope they can answer.

Here’s the video:

Well, it’s not. One show, which just did not work, is in no way representative of a trend, any more than the box-office failure of the movie “Snakes on a Plane” meant online marketing and hype was finished.

The Wall Street Journal’s excellent Jessica Vascellaro wrote a great piece today on the subject of online content creation, focusing on social-networking efforts, such as Bebo’s “KateModern,” an original online show from the creators of “lonelygirl15,” as well as stuff being made by MySpace and others.

The goal is to keep users more engaged. More importantly, it is to fight the continued audience attraction to user-generated videos on YouTube, which is owned by Google (GOOG). It dominates the online video market, as you can see from this chart below (click on it to make it larger).

BoomTown has written about the Bebo hit several times (including a video visit to Bebo’s HQ in London last summer and an interview with a “KateModern” producer in November, both seen below), as it represented the right way to start to develop original online content.

And that would not include pulling some failed television pilot out of a drawer, making it on the cheap, cutting it up into shorter segments and slapping it online.

Instead, true success–besides the material actually being good, which should be a given–requires the content to be interactive, pioneer new filming techniques and be made specifically for the medium, using its tools, rather than being shoehorned into it.

“KateModern,” for example, has been changeable by the second by its audience and the creators have moved the action along with startling speed.

But it still has someone professionally producing it. Set in East London, it follows a “troubled young art student named Kate and her three closest friends: an Australian wild-child named Charlie, a young entrepreneur named Tariq and a mischievous computer whiz-kid named Gavin.”

As The Journal’s Vascellaro correctly writes: “Past efforts by Web companies to turn themselves into online versions of television networks have been hampered by the difficulty in changing ingrained consumer habits–while people are happy to watch short video clips from time to time, few until recently saw the Web as a forum to follow regular episodes of series. For online-only shows, weak advertiser interest, subpar production quality and lack of promotional muscle were added hurdles.”

Indeed. But that will change quickly.

Here is our too-long video of the visit to Bebo and the interview with “KateModern” producer Pete Gibbons:

That’s because people there are too busy fighting over nothing these days.

Still, Hollywood’s writers and studios come back to the bargaining table again today, resuming their discussions to settle the strike that has been going on for three weeks now.

The Writers Guild of America is adamant about getting its writers a fair share for work that gets distributed over the Web.

And studios are just as stubbornly resisting, saying shares are not forthcoming anyway right now, given how paltry the revenues from Internet content are at this point in time.

While the wrangling has gotten lots of attention–no late night shows, the horror!–what’s really more appalling is exactly how slow all of Hollywood has been actually trying to change that equation.

Good thing, then, for producers like Pete Gibbons, the series producer of “KateModern,” an interactive online-only series being made in London and now appearing regularly on the Bebo social network. Each episode–not including all the other side videos and posts that hang all around each one–garners around 300,000 page views.

So far, of course, it is a fledgling effort, but a step in the right direction, even as Hollywood fiddles and its business burns.

Here’s an interview I did with Gibbons when I was in London:

(I am still having problems with my Brightcove player, so I uploaded it to YouTube.)

Hollywood writers or studios have yet to produce anything as interesting and innovative as this online. In fact, to my mind, neither side has made any effort in leading the way in creating a new kind of online-born content that will garner the kind of profits that are perhaps really worth fighting over.

Why is that? The basics–greed, laziness and fear–cannot be underscored enough.

Greed because it is still a nascent industry and the up-front, pay-now attitude that much of Hollywood still operates under will not work in a situation that clearly needs to have more of a venture-backed, risk-embracing mentality.

Few in the entertainment industry are willing to give up their still lucrative–although obviously declining in influence and audience–business for what’s next.

Laziness because it is easier to shovel stuff made for other mediums online or make professional Web material that is clearly derivative of current media like television, rather than try to imagine a whole new way of creating content that reflects and excels on the online platform.

I hear over and over that it is an impossible medium to create in–doubtless the same complaints heard at the time of the invention of radio or television.

And fear? Well, that’s often Hollywood’s most motivating force and one that precludes the atmosphere of true invention that is required for the new medium to blossom.

Of course, the real breakthrough hits will probably not come from Hollywood, whose first order of business remains filling the multiplexes or plugging that hole on the network’s lackluster Thursday night.

And, of course, in escalating costs, even as tech costs get lower and lower and tech companies are started on almost nothing.

By contrast, “KateModern” is produced at much lower costs–a necessary change that is almost impossible for Hollywood to get its head wrapped around–and changeable by the second by its audience. Gibbons and his team move the action along with startling speed.

Done by the creators of “Lonelygirl15″ (who are Los Angeles-based), “KateModern” is set in East London and follows a “troubled young art student named Kate and her three closest friends: an Australian wild-child named Charlie, a young entrepreneur named Tariq and a mischievous computer whiz-kid named Gavin.”

The series (now in its 17th week) is done in partnership with Bebo, which sells ads against the content, paying for it before it is made.

So, take a gander down the road a bit and check out “KateModern’s” latest episode, starring its Charlie character:

Watch More Videos       Uploaded by www.bebo.com/ChazOnToast

And please, pretty please, it just can’t be “lonelygirl15″ (pictured below) and some clever music videos.

The lack of lasting and profitable professional content online is once again in sharp relief with the writers’ strike now taking place in Hollywood.

In a Wall Street Journal piece yesterday on the struggle between the Writers Guild of America and entertainment studios, Ken Hertz, a Los Angeles lawyer who has worked on digital music issues, made an interesting observation:

If anything, the strike could create an opportunity for the online world to step up and prove its value to the guild. A strike could in a strange way damage the studios by creating online competitors who come forward to offer the union writers a new model that no one would have otherwise had the time or effort to conceive of.”

If only.

Because, while the main point of contention between the two sides is how to split future revenues from digital distribution, I am not sure exactly when it will become more than the middling revenue (and not much income) online content generates today, which is more like splitting up a tip jar at Starbucks than raking in big bags of dough from some Hollywood blockbuster.

That is likely to remain true for a while, given that consumers still are not used to paying anything much for what is considered entertainment on the Internet today (which is largely user-generated content) and that there is still a major piracy problem when it comes to premium stuff.

What’s considered a hit? “Lonelygirl15″ on MySpace TV? Its creators, who also produce the “KateModern” online serial for Bebo, put out a press release this week noting “more than 70 million views for the original hit show, ‘lonelygirl15,’ and the spinoff ‘KateModern’ reaching over 15 million views in its first two months online.”

Not bad, and its attempts to integrate brands into the plot are well and good, if annoying, such as when “Johnson & Johnson’s Neutrogena became a brand integration with a character–Dr. Spencer Gilman, a scientist from the company–was featured across two months of programming.”

There are scads of such projects now in production in Hollywood, all trying to recreate the kind of programming that made television a lucrative industry way back when.

But, so far, these are still baby steps, as are all attempts so far in getting a true payoff from online video, despite new ad paradigms from YouTube and others.

Also interesting are new online video sites like Hulu.com from NBC Universal and News Corp., as well as Joost from the creators of Skype.

But their efforts still fall well short of a system in which consumers can truly manipulate and control their content anytime, any place and from any device.

And even real offline hits don’t cut it yet–NBCU’s Jeff Zucker complained in his recent goofy attack on Apple’s iTunes that the company only generated $15 million in revenue for its video fare on iTunes in its last year, including for its wildly popular series “Heroes” (which we certainly forked over cash money for!).

So what to do? I guess exactly what the writers are doing–banking on the hope that Hollywood will eventually get it right when it comes to digital distribution and asking for their fair share when it does.

Writers, quite reasonably, want to be paid more as their work moves online–to the Web, cellphones and anywhere else that gadgets send content in the future.

It’s an especially pointed desire, given that they were essentially shafted in the last digital transformation when DVDs and videocassettes appeared.

As John Aboud, who is a strike captain for WGA, noted in a comment to my post last week on the strike, that even with all the money Hollywood has made, most writers are not well paid (although those at the tippy-top are copiously compensated).

“Median earnings of all members of the Writers Guild is only $5,000,” he wrote. “How can that be? About 48% of members do not earn any money from writing in a given year. Of those writers who do make some money, one quarter earn less than $37,700 a year.”

Ouch!

Still, he is entirely correct when he also added: “The distribution of entertainment over the Internet is not the future, it’s NOW. If the producers succeed in gutting our right to compensation for digital reuse and delivery, that is income that’s gone forever.”

It’s certainly been a hit-or-miss proposition, since the Internet was popularized–mostly misses, actually. Beyond viral phenoms from the Dancing Baby to Mentos and Coke, there really is little there that has taken off in a big and lasting way online.

Many, big and small, have tried, but none have truly succeeded. Most recently, Yahoo pulled the plug on Hollywood player Lloyd Braun, for example, who was brought in to make Web hits.

But that has not stopped him–Braun’s got a new deal with Pepsi to create original online content. Over at AOL, which has a lot of history in this arena, there is much stuff in the works.

And sites like Funny Or Die–which uses more celebrities, like a recent one with Bill Murray–pop up daily.

One interesting effort is social network Bebo with its recent series called “KateModern,” an honest version of “LonelyGirl15″, both of which are series focused on attractive self-consciously self-conscious twentysomething women and their attractive friends.

And today, in a project with great similarity to these efforts, MySpace unveiled an exclusive partnership with well-known television producers Marshall Herskovitz and Edward Zwick, creators of such iconic shows as “My So-Called Life” and “thirtysomething,” for an original Web series called “quarterlife.”

The 36-episode series–there will also be a social-network component, natch–is about a group of attractive twentysomethings, with what appears to be, yep, another self-consciously self-conscious central female character who video blogs about them.

Sort of like hit BoomTown’s reality series–well, a hit with my Mom!–that is also posted below. We could use some self-consciousness, for sure, plus we’re much lumpier.

Here are some videos for you to peruse:

FCU With Bill Murray

KateModern

Lonelygirl15

Quarterlife

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